Crashes, attacks and general mayhem in Stage 8 produced a fluctuating race at La Vuelta, with three riders abandoning after a nasty crash, stage favourite Sagan got taken down by a motorcycle and got in a vehement argument with organisers, and Jasper Stuyven took a breakout win in a messy sprint. Stage 9 will be one for the mountain goats again, with a sharp climb to finish the racing for the day.
The Course
The course for the stage winds along the eastern coast of Spain for 168.3 kilometres, and has probably the lowest average altitude of any stage of this year's Vuelta, with most of the stage located directy next to the Mediterranean. The final climb will be tackled twice as part of a finishing circuit, the Alto de Puig Llorenca will be raced halfway up the first time (3.3 km, 8.9%), summiting with 42 kilometres remaining. From there it is a gradual descent, and the approach to the second attempt at the climb includes a short climb to the base of the final test which this time goes the entire way up the climb (4.1 km, 8.9%) to the finish.
The climb itself starts off relatively mildy, only averaging 5.3% for the first two kilometres, but then goes into a brutal 500m section at 19%. It levels off into a false flat section of 2% for 600m, then it is back to the hard climbing again, with a dramatically varying final 1300m which includes pinches of 13%, 16% and 26% in an overall average gradient of 9.8%.
The weather will be a little kinder for the riders today, with a high of 31 Degrees expected and a moderate headwind for most of the stage, which will make it easier for the majority of riders, just not for the break and the riders tasked with bringing them back. Being right on the coast may open up the peleton to crosswinds if the weather shifts and riders will have to be alert to the possibility, even if seems remote on the current forecast.
The course for the stage winds along the eastern coast of Spain for 168.3 kilometres, and has probably the lowest average altitude of any stage of this year's Vuelta, with most of the stage located directy next to the Mediterranean. The final climb will be tackled twice as part of a finishing circuit, the Alto de Puig Llorenca will be raced halfway up the first time (3.3 km, 8.9%), summiting with 42 kilometres remaining. From there it is a gradual descent, and the approach to the second attempt at the climb includes a short climb to the base of the final test which this time goes the entire way up the climb (4.1 km, 8.9%) to the finish.
The climb itself starts off relatively mildy, only averaging 5.3% for the first two kilometres, but then goes into a brutal 500m section at 19%. It levels off into a false flat section of 2% for 600m, then it is back to the hard climbing again, with a dramatically varying final 1300m which includes pinches of 13%, 16% and 26% in an overall average gradient of 9.8%.
The weather will be a little kinder for the riders today, with a high of 31 Degrees expected and a moderate headwind for most of the stage, which will make it easier for the majority of riders, just not for the break and the riders tasked with bringing them back. Being right on the coast may open up the peleton to crosswinds if the weather shifts and riders will have to be alert to the possibility, even if seems remote on the current forecast.
The Tactics
Esteban Chaves has a handy lead on anyone likely to attempt a breakaway today, and it is unlikely that Orica-Greenedge are going to want to contribute much to the pursuit of the escapees here. That will mean that anyone who wants to win the stage will have to step up and do the majority of the work, and that looks like it will be Katusha. This finale has Joaquim Rodriguez written all over it, and it would be a surprise if the Russian team wasn't keen to keep the break in check for their Spanish superstar. Movistar will probably lend a hand as well, with Valverde and Quintana keen to stamp their authority on the race, and hopefully distance riders like Froome a bit more.
There should be little in the way of attacking before the final climb, and I would expect Katusha, Movistar and maybe even Orica-Greenedge to set a high pace up the early part of the climb where the gradient isn't as hard, both to tire out the legs of others, and keep their riders in good position for the hard 19% section. From there, it will be a survival of the fittest, and I think there will be lots of attacks and counterattacks all the way until the finish. Generally, if you are stronger, you attack on the steepest sections, and if you are weaker, you attack on the shallower gradients to take advantage of any lull in the pace as the favourites watch each other. Those sort of lulls could advantage a rider like Nicholas Roche or Louis Meintjes to slip away up the road, as neither will be marked too closely.
Esteban Chaves has a handy lead on anyone likely to attempt a breakaway today, and it is unlikely that Orica-Greenedge are going to want to contribute much to the pursuit of the escapees here. That will mean that anyone who wants to win the stage will have to step up and do the majority of the work, and that looks like it will be Katusha. This finale has Joaquim Rodriguez written all over it, and it would be a surprise if the Russian team wasn't keen to keep the break in check for their Spanish superstar. Movistar will probably lend a hand as well, with Valverde and Quintana keen to stamp their authority on the race, and hopefully distance riders like Froome a bit more.
There should be little in the way of attacking before the final climb, and I would expect Katusha, Movistar and maybe even Orica-Greenedge to set a high pace up the early part of the climb where the gradient isn't as hard, both to tire out the legs of others, and keep their riders in good position for the hard 19% section. From there, it will be a survival of the fittest, and I think there will be lots of attacks and counterattacks all the way until the finish. Generally, if you are stronger, you attack on the steepest sections, and if you are weaker, you attack on the shallower gradients to take advantage of any lull in the pace as the favourites watch each other. Those sort of lulls could advantage a rider like Nicholas Roche or Louis Meintjes to slip away up the road, as neither will be marked too closely.
The Contenders
Joaquim Rodriguez has always been most at home on the steepest slopes, winning races like the Fleche Wallonne, Il Lombardia and this year's edition of Pais Vasco, which included some very steep climbs. He has also won numerous stages of Grand Tours with steep finishes like this one, and there was a point in his career that he was almost unbeatable if arrived in the front group with a kilometre to go up a steep climb. He has been racing well this Vuelta, but wasn't super impressive yesterday, and was behind the dangerous GC attacks when they came up the last climb. On the other hand, he may have been content in the knowledge that they were likely to be brought back, or he may have been out of position rather than lacking in form. It would be a blow to his chances for the overall GC if he didn't win here, or at least distance his GC rivals, as he needs to make the most of these sort of finishes as he will be losing minutes on the TT stage. He spoke after Stage 8 of looking forward to this stage as being one where he can make a difference, but also said that Chaves was riding very strong at the moment, suggesting that he believes that he may not have the strength to beat the race leader.
Speaking of, Esteban Chaves may have looked like he was just taking advantage of cagey tactics from the favourites in his first win in Stage 2, but his form has been franked by his second win, where he powered away from a peleton going fast up the hardest section of the climb on Stage 6, and he has ridden strongly in his defence of the jersey, following the major attacks, and not looking in too much difficulty at any point. He is not overly experienced in these sort of extreme finishes, but he can afford to ride conservatively in defence of his GC position, and he can simply follow the wheels initially and then use his superior condition to power away at the finish.
Alejandro Valverde is at the opposite end of his career to the young Colombian, but with that comes a wealth of experience in these sort of finishes, on which he has excelled for years and years. He didn't go for the sprint yesterday, feeling that it was a bit too chaotic to risk, but was on the attack on the climbs, and although that came to nothing, it looks like the Spaniard is in good form at the moment. He already has a stage win under his belt, and he will be keen to make it two and deal some damage to his GC rivals. He is very explosive, and will be the big favourite if it comes down to a sprint at the finish, but quite often the damage is done before that point, and Valverde knows that, and often makes his big attack before that in any case.
I was surprised before the race when everyone was naming Froome and Quintana as their big favourites for the overall win as the race is peppered with these short steep challenges, which don't suit them as well as others, and they are clearly tired after their extreme efforts of the Tour, which was their sole goal heading into the season. Neither has looked particularly strong in the early part of this Tour, Quintana gained time on Stage 2, but was unable to keep up with Chaves, Dumoulin and Roche, and Froome lost 30 seconds on Stage 7 to most of his GC rivals. None of this is terminal to their GC chances, but its shows that they are not in top form, and unlikely to win where it doesn't suit them.
Team Sky actually have a four-pronged GC threat in this Vuelta with Nicholas Roche, Mikel Nieve, Sergio Henao and Froome all in the Top 20 at the moment. Roche looks in the best form and he will be the best suited to this stage, so he will probably be the one to watch of the Sky quartet here. I doubt that he is quite suited to the extreme gradients that he'll face here, but he may be able to slip away on some of the shallower sections if the favourites watch each other. Then again he is pretty close to Chaves on the overall, so he may be marked by the Colombian. The other Sky riders won't be as heavily marked, and I think that Henao is probably the best on this sort of finish out of them. Unfortunately he is the one in the worst form, and in this sort of survival of the fittest finish, he will be hard pressed to turn his form around.
Rafal Majka is getting stronger and stronger, and looks to be shaping up to be a big threat to the overall GC. He isn't as renowned as others on the punchy finishes, but he will be happier with the steeper gradients here, and as a pure climber, he won't be troubled by the varying gradients of the final climb. He will be a marked man, so will have to be very strong to win here, as he will need to distance most of rivals before the finish, as his sprint is pretty weak.
Another who appears to be coming into form nicely is Domenico Pozzovivo, who lost some time on Stage 2 after falling during the stage, but hasn't missed a beat since, and is still well in contention on GC. He even finished 7th on the Stage 5 sprint, an odd result for the tiny Italian, who has never shined in the fast finishes. He has a decent history in the classics, not rivalling Purito or Valverde, but he won't be as fatigued as the Spanish veterans here, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if he could upset them here on these steep gradients which suit him so well.
Fabio Aru has been racing well so far in the Vuelta, notably putting in a strong attack on Stage 7, where he escaped the bunch late on, and was closing rapidly in on the breakaway riders. He looked like he was almost sprinting up the climb there, but in the end he only claimed 9 seconds advantage on most of his rivals. He knows that he will need to keep attacking, as most of his rivals are superior time-triallists to him, and he will need a fair bit of an advantage in his pocket to be contesting the podium. He hasn't got the experience of his counterparts in this sort of finish, not being much of a classics rider, and he doesn't have the explosive power of others here, being more suited to the longer climbs. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him attack, but it would to see him win in this company.
Tom Dumoulin is in exalted climbing company, surprising as he is a bigger rider, but no one can question how well he has been going so far. He has shown his ability on the steeper climbs in the past, he stayed in contention for the GC on the Rettenbachferner in the Tour de Suisse, which is an absolute beast of a climb, and this is relatively easy by comparison. He won't be able to go with the best here, but he may be able to attack on the flatter parts of the climb, but he will probably be marked tightly by Chaves, as he is the closest to the Colombian on GC.
I hadn't expected Louis Meintjes to be riding at such a high level in this Vuelta, after just completing his first Grand Tour. Being young normally means that you haven't developed the capacity for recovery that comes after years and years of doing it, but the South African has shown up here in good form, not losing much time, except somewhat bizarrely on the sprint stages, where he hasn't been well positioned at all, and any gaps that have formed have meant that he has lost an extra 45 seconds. Inattentiveness won't be an issue here, and he is riding well enough that he could take advantage of other momentary lapses to make an attack which is unlikely to be marked by the big players in one of the shallower sections. If he can get a good gap there, then he has shown that he has the strength and the punchy ability on these sort of finishes to do very well here.
Pello Bilbao and Jose Goncalves have been riding very well as a pair for Caja-Rural so far this Vuelta, with one or the other always up there in the hilly finishes to date, and often on the attack towards the end of the race. I doubt that either have the power to win toe-to-toe with the big riders here, but a smart attack combined with a lot of prevaricating by the contenders behind could net them a victory, as they are well down on GC and won't be marked by anyone.
Daniel Moreno is another that would be amongst the top favourites on this sort of finish, particularly on current form, but I expect that he'll be put at the service of his team leader here and he won't be able to pursue his own ambitions. In the unlikely event that it comes down to a sprint from a group then Moreno is one of the few that might stand a chance of taking a win however.
Joaquim Rodriguez has always been most at home on the steepest slopes, winning races like the Fleche Wallonne, Il Lombardia and this year's edition of Pais Vasco, which included some very steep climbs. He has also won numerous stages of Grand Tours with steep finishes like this one, and there was a point in his career that he was almost unbeatable if arrived in the front group with a kilometre to go up a steep climb. He has been racing well this Vuelta, but wasn't super impressive yesterday, and was behind the dangerous GC attacks when they came up the last climb. On the other hand, he may have been content in the knowledge that they were likely to be brought back, or he may have been out of position rather than lacking in form. It would be a blow to his chances for the overall GC if he didn't win here, or at least distance his GC rivals, as he needs to make the most of these sort of finishes as he will be losing minutes on the TT stage. He spoke after Stage 8 of looking forward to this stage as being one where he can make a difference, but also said that Chaves was riding very strong at the moment, suggesting that he believes that he may not have the strength to beat the race leader.
Speaking of, Esteban Chaves may have looked like he was just taking advantage of cagey tactics from the favourites in his first win in Stage 2, but his form has been franked by his second win, where he powered away from a peleton going fast up the hardest section of the climb on Stage 6, and he has ridden strongly in his defence of the jersey, following the major attacks, and not looking in too much difficulty at any point. He is not overly experienced in these sort of extreme finishes, but he can afford to ride conservatively in defence of his GC position, and he can simply follow the wheels initially and then use his superior condition to power away at the finish.
Alejandro Valverde is at the opposite end of his career to the young Colombian, but with that comes a wealth of experience in these sort of finishes, on which he has excelled for years and years. He didn't go for the sprint yesterday, feeling that it was a bit too chaotic to risk, but was on the attack on the climbs, and although that came to nothing, it looks like the Spaniard is in good form at the moment. He already has a stage win under his belt, and he will be keen to make it two and deal some damage to his GC rivals. He is very explosive, and will be the big favourite if it comes down to a sprint at the finish, but quite often the damage is done before that point, and Valverde knows that, and often makes his big attack before that in any case.
I was surprised before the race when everyone was naming Froome and Quintana as their big favourites for the overall win as the race is peppered with these short steep challenges, which don't suit them as well as others, and they are clearly tired after their extreme efforts of the Tour, which was their sole goal heading into the season. Neither has looked particularly strong in the early part of this Tour, Quintana gained time on Stage 2, but was unable to keep up with Chaves, Dumoulin and Roche, and Froome lost 30 seconds on Stage 7 to most of his GC rivals. None of this is terminal to their GC chances, but its shows that they are not in top form, and unlikely to win where it doesn't suit them.
Team Sky actually have a four-pronged GC threat in this Vuelta with Nicholas Roche, Mikel Nieve, Sergio Henao and Froome all in the Top 20 at the moment. Roche looks in the best form and he will be the best suited to this stage, so he will probably be the one to watch of the Sky quartet here. I doubt that he is quite suited to the extreme gradients that he'll face here, but he may be able to slip away on some of the shallower sections if the favourites watch each other. Then again he is pretty close to Chaves on the overall, so he may be marked by the Colombian. The other Sky riders won't be as heavily marked, and I think that Henao is probably the best on this sort of finish out of them. Unfortunately he is the one in the worst form, and in this sort of survival of the fittest finish, he will be hard pressed to turn his form around.
Rafal Majka is getting stronger and stronger, and looks to be shaping up to be a big threat to the overall GC. He isn't as renowned as others on the punchy finishes, but he will be happier with the steeper gradients here, and as a pure climber, he won't be troubled by the varying gradients of the final climb. He will be a marked man, so will have to be very strong to win here, as he will need to distance most of rivals before the finish, as his sprint is pretty weak.
Another who appears to be coming into form nicely is Domenico Pozzovivo, who lost some time on Stage 2 after falling during the stage, but hasn't missed a beat since, and is still well in contention on GC. He even finished 7th on the Stage 5 sprint, an odd result for the tiny Italian, who has never shined in the fast finishes. He has a decent history in the classics, not rivalling Purito or Valverde, but he won't be as fatigued as the Spanish veterans here, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if he could upset them here on these steep gradients which suit him so well.
Fabio Aru has been racing well so far in the Vuelta, notably putting in a strong attack on Stage 7, where he escaped the bunch late on, and was closing rapidly in on the breakaway riders. He looked like he was almost sprinting up the climb there, but in the end he only claimed 9 seconds advantage on most of his rivals. He knows that he will need to keep attacking, as most of his rivals are superior time-triallists to him, and he will need a fair bit of an advantage in his pocket to be contesting the podium. He hasn't got the experience of his counterparts in this sort of finish, not being much of a classics rider, and he doesn't have the explosive power of others here, being more suited to the longer climbs. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him attack, but it would to see him win in this company.
Tom Dumoulin is in exalted climbing company, surprising as he is a bigger rider, but no one can question how well he has been going so far. He has shown his ability on the steeper climbs in the past, he stayed in contention for the GC on the Rettenbachferner in the Tour de Suisse, which is an absolute beast of a climb, and this is relatively easy by comparison. He won't be able to go with the best here, but he may be able to attack on the flatter parts of the climb, but he will probably be marked tightly by Chaves, as he is the closest to the Colombian on GC.
I hadn't expected Louis Meintjes to be riding at such a high level in this Vuelta, after just completing his first Grand Tour. Being young normally means that you haven't developed the capacity for recovery that comes after years and years of doing it, but the South African has shown up here in good form, not losing much time, except somewhat bizarrely on the sprint stages, where he hasn't been well positioned at all, and any gaps that have formed have meant that he has lost an extra 45 seconds. Inattentiveness won't be an issue here, and he is riding well enough that he could take advantage of other momentary lapses to make an attack which is unlikely to be marked by the big players in one of the shallower sections. If he can get a good gap there, then he has shown that he has the strength and the punchy ability on these sort of finishes to do very well here.
Pello Bilbao and Jose Goncalves have been riding very well as a pair for Caja-Rural so far this Vuelta, with one or the other always up there in the hilly finishes to date, and often on the attack towards the end of the race. I doubt that either have the power to win toe-to-toe with the big riders here, but a smart attack combined with a lot of prevaricating by the contenders behind could net them a victory, as they are well down on GC and won't be marked by anyone.
Daniel Moreno is another that would be amongst the top favourites on this sort of finish, particularly on current form, but I expect that he'll be put at the service of his team leader here and he won't be able to pursue his own ambitions. In the unlikely event that it comes down to a sprint from a group then Moreno is one of the few that might stand a chance of taking a win however.
The Verdict
I'm not going to over complicate things here, Joaquim Rodriguez loves this sort of finish, and he regularly wins on these sort of steep slopes. I'm hoping we see him, Valverde and Chaves go toe to toe here, it should be a really exciting battle.
I'm not going to over complicate things here, Joaquim Rodriguez loves this sort of finish, and he regularly wins on these sort of steep slopes. I'm hoping we see him, Valverde and Chaves go toe to toe here, it should be a really exciting battle.