A breakaway gave Bert-Jan Lindeman the chance to take an unlikely win atop the summit of the last stage, but it will be one for the sprinters today, and it seems that the break will kept on a lot shorter leash. In GC news from yesterday a number of riders lost time on the steep finale, with Chris Froome the biggest name to show weakness. He's far from out of it however, and in some way expected that he wouldn't be at top form at the start.
The Course
A mostly downhill run from the mountains will see the riders descend from 1200 metres to just above sea level over the 182.5 km course. The finish is in Murcia, and after the riders reach it for the first time, they will contest the intermediate sprint, which hasn't been the scene of much action in the past few stages. It's then onto a 18.7 kilometre circuit including the Alto de la Cresto de Gallo (4.4 km, 7.2%), which will be summited twice, with 36 and 17.3 kilometres remaining. This climb is certainly hard enough to drop most of the sprinters, and if it is tackled aggressively, it could well be an opportunity for a surprise attack by a GC rider. The descent is a tricky one, and could be another opportunity for an attack, and will make chasing from the peleton a tricky business. The roads into the finish are almost completely flat, and will offer any sprinters the chance to bring it back for a bunch finish.
A mostly downhill run from the mountains will see the riders descend from 1200 metres to just above sea level over the 182.5 km course. The finish is in Murcia, and after the riders reach it for the first time, they will contest the intermediate sprint, which hasn't been the scene of much action in the past few stages. It's then onto a 18.7 kilometre circuit including the Alto de la Cresto de Gallo (4.4 km, 7.2%), which will be summited twice, with 36 and 17.3 kilometres remaining. This climb is certainly hard enough to drop most of the sprinters, and if it is tackled aggressively, it could well be an opportunity for a surprise attack by a GC rider. The descent is a tricky one, and could be another opportunity for an attack, and will make chasing from the peleton a tricky business. The roads into the finish are almost completely flat, and will offer any sprinters the chance to bring it back for a bunch finish.
The Tactics
Hard to say whether it will come down to a sprint finish, or be a stage for the puncheurs, or perhaps even the early break. It will likely come down to how Tinkoff-Saxo ride the stage, as they have the favourite in a sprint finish, Peter Sagan. Bouhanni and Degenkolb probably rival the Slovakian speed, but after those hard climbs, few will come close to Sagan, who will take the climbs a lot easier, and it is very likely that he could be the only recognised fast man at the finish. Tinkoff-Saxo have showed themselves to be keen to work for Sagan, shouldering the main burden of the chasing for the sprint stages so far, and even the punchy stage won by Valverde. However, Rafal Majka is also looking in very good form, and he will require support in the mountains in coming days, particularly the crucial Stage 11. If they don't take up the chase, the win will probably go to the early break, as there isn't a clear winning candidate despite him, and the other teams won't be keen to work.
That said, the other squads will definitely contest the win if it is contention, and the best way will be to attack on the climbs of the Cresta de la Gallo, which is sufficiently difficult to create big gaps. If the GC contenders decide to light it up, then only the strongest will contest the finish, but that seems unlikely, as there is a still 17 km to go from the top of the final ascent, and any GC contender will be actively chased down by all the teams interested in finishing high in the GC.
What is more likely is that the attacks will come from the classics specialists and puncheurs who aren't threats on GC, who won't be chased by the teams with GC riders, and will only have the teams of the fast men to chase them down. That sort of attack will stand a lot better chance, especially as Tinkoff-Saxo aren't replete with particularly strong climbing domestiques. Movistar will probably lend a hand, as Alejandro Valverde is going to be one of the fastest in a sprint, and very keen to take bonus seconds. In fact, they may even drive the tempo on the final climb to drop Sagan, but that seems unlikely, as the Slovakian is climbing very well at the moment.
Hard to say whether it will come down to a sprint finish, or be a stage for the puncheurs, or perhaps even the early break. It will likely come down to how Tinkoff-Saxo ride the stage, as they have the favourite in a sprint finish, Peter Sagan. Bouhanni and Degenkolb probably rival the Slovakian speed, but after those hard climbs, few will come close to Sagan, who will take the climbs a lot easier, and it is very likely that he could be the only recognised fast man at the finish. Tinkoff-Saxo have showed themselves to be keen to work for Sagan, shouldering the main burden of the chasing for the sprint stages so far, and even the punchy stage won by Valverde. However, Rafal Majka is also looking in very good form, and he will require support in the mountains in coming days, particularly the crucial Stage 11. If they don't take up the chase, the win will probably go to the early break, as there isn't a clear winning candidate despite him, and the other teams won't be keen to work.
That said, the other squads will definitely contest the win if it is contention, and the best way will be to attack on the climbs of the Cresta de la Gallo, which is sufficiently difficult to create big gaps. If the GC contenders decide to light it up, then only the strongest will contest the finish, but that seems unlikely, as there is a still 17 km to go from the top of the final ascent, and any GC contender will be actively chased down by all the teams interested in finishing high in the GC.
What is more likely is that the attacks will come from the classics specialists and puncheurs who aren't threats on GC, who won't be chased by the teams with GC riders, and will only have the teams of the fast men to chase them down. That sort of attack will stand a lot better chance, especially as Tinkoff-Saxo aren't replete with particularly strong climbing domestiques. Movistar will probably lend a hand, as Alejandro Valverde is going to be one of the fastest in a sprint, and very keen to take bonus seconds. In fact, they may even drive the tempo on the final climb to drop Sagan, but that seems unlikely, as the Slovakian is climbing very well at the moment.
The Contenders
Peter Sagan, for reasons outlined above, comes into this as the favourite. Arguably the fastest sprinter in the race and a top climber as well, he will be very hard to drop on the climbs, and nigh on unbeatable in the sprint. Where he will face difficulties is if riders attack off the front, as he can't afford to cover the moves, as no one will want to work with him to the finish, and his team might not be strong enough to keep the race together. He rested up in the gruppetto on the last stage and will be keen to take his second win of the race.
Alejandro Valverde actually beat Sagan in the Stage 4 sprint, but he got the inside line on the corner, and the finish line appeared to surprise Sagan as he was beginning to round Valverde on the outside. In a flat sprint he isn't going to have the same amount of power, and he's going to have to hope that he isn't facing the formidable Slovakian in a sprint. On the other hand, he is a better climber, and will be a bit more fresh in the finale, and has won countless races in similar circumstances and will use every bit of experience to his advantage.
Daniel Moreno is a similar rider to Valverde, a very strong climber with a solid sprint, but he has been in poor form for a while now. He looks to be back to something approaching his best now though, and he will be right up there if it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint. He may also take the chance to attack solo if it is a particularly small group after the climb, and with Rodriguez sitting in behind, that could well slow up the chase. His teammate and captain Rodriguez also has a decent sprint, but he much prefers it when he is sprinting uphill.
Simon Gerrans would normally be right in it on this sort of finish, but he has come into this Vuelta underdone, and is performing domestique work for Chaves and Ewan at the moment. In interviews before the Vuelta he looked very hungry to get back into racing competitively and this stage would normally suit him right down to the ground. He has beaten Sagan and Valverde in sprints before, so if he has come back into some form after the first week of racing, he may surprise some here. Interestingly, he has already won a stage here, in 2009, where he outsprinted a small group after escaping on the Cresta de la Gallo.
Julien Simon will get a chance to sprint here, as Nacer Bouhanni is unlikely to make it over the climbs in the front group and he is pretty fast in the this sort of finish. He was 7th on Stage 4, which showed that his climbing and sprinting legs are pretty sound at the moment, and he could sneak into a decent place with a bit of luck.
Cyril Gautier is riding an attacking race, but to no avail as of yet. He will get another chance here, and he is a strong enough rider to take advantage if he gets a gap. He has a decent sprint, but not approaching the others here, so he will have to attack if he wants to win.
Daniel Navarro has been climbing quite well this race, but not to his highest level, and he finds himself a few minutes down on GC. He does have a good eye for an attack, and won a stage in the Vuelta last year when he attacked from a fair way out to hold off the peleton for a surprise win. He will try and take advantage again.
Giovanni Visconti has been riding very well so far this season, but hasn't really had much of an opportunity to go for his own results so far. He may be put at the service of Valverde again, but if it comes down to a small group and his team leaders are safe enough, he should be allowed to attack and take a shot at a win, which will also mean that Movistar won't have to do any chasing behind. Valverde knows that he can't beat Sagan on the flat, and should give his lieutenants a chance at a rare win.
Peter Sagan, for reasons outlined above, comes into this as the favourite. Arguably the fastest sprinter in the race and a top climber as well, he will be very hard to drop on the climbs, and nigh on unbeatable in the sprint. Where he will face difficulties is if riders attack off the front, as he can't afford to cover the moves, as no one will want to work with him to the finish, and his team might not be strong enough to keep the race together. He rested up in the gruppetto on the last stage and will be keen to take his second win of the race.
Alejandro Valverde actually beat Sagan in the Stage 4 sprint, but he got the inside line on the corner, and the finish line appeared to surprise Sagan as he was beginning to round Valverde on the outside. In a flat sprint he isn't going to have the same amount of power, and he's going to have to hope that he isn't facing the formidable Slovakian in a sprint. On the other hand, he is a better climber, and will be a bit more fresh in the finale, and has won countless races in similar circumstances and will use every bit of experience to his advantage.
Daniel Moreno is a similar rider to Valverde, a very strong climber with a solid sprint, but he has been in poor form for a while now. He looks to be back to something approaching his best now though, and he will be right up there if it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint. He may also take the chance to attack solo if it is a particularly small group after the climb, and with Rodriguez sitting in behind, that could well slow up the chase. His teammate and captain Rodriguez also has a decent sprint, but he much prefers it when he is sprinting uphill.
Simon Gerrans would normally be right in it on this sort of finish, but he has come into this Vuelta underdone, and is performing domestique work for Chaves and Ewan at the moment. In interviews before the Vuelta he looked very hungry to get back into racing competitively and this stage would normally suit him right down to the ground. He has beaten Sagan and Valverde in sprints before, so if he has come back into some form after the first week of racing, he may surprise some here. Interestingly, he has already won a stage here, in 2009, where he outsprinted a small group after escaping on the Cresta de la Gallo.
Julien Simon will get a chance to sprint here, as Nacer Bouhanni is unlikely to make it over the climbs in the front group and he is pretty fast in the this sort of finish. He was 7th on Stage 4, which showed that his climbing and sprinting legs are pretty sound at the moment, and he could sneak into a decent place with a bit of luck.
Cyril Gautier is riding an attacking race, but to no avail as of yet. He will get another chance here, and he is a strong enough rider to take advantage if he gets a gap. He has a decent sprint, but not approaching the others here, so he will have to attack if he wants to win.
Daniel Navarro has been climbing quite well this race, but not to his highest level, and he finds himself a few minutes down on GC. He does have a good eye for an attack, and won a stage in the Vuelta last year when he attacked from a fair way out to hold off the peleton for a surprise win. He will try and take advantage again.
Giovanni Visconti has been riding very well so far this season, but hasn't really had much of an opportunity to go for his own results so far. He may be put at the service of Valverde again, but if it comes down to a small group and his team leaders are safe enough, he should be allowed to attack and take a shot at a win, which will also mean that Movistar won't have to do any chasing behind. Valverde knows that he can't beat Sagan on the flat, and should give his lieutenants a chance at a rare win.
The Verdict
I think the combination of Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo chasing would be too much for a late attack to be able to hold off, but if a Movistar rider goes on the move, he will be allowed to ride off by his team, so a Giovanni Visconti win in an upset here.
I think the combination of Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo chasing would be too much for a late attack to be able to hold off, but if a Movistar rider goes on the move, he will be allowed to ride off by his team, so a Giovanni Visconti win in an upset here.