It has already been a successful Vuelta for Esteban Chaves and Orica-Greenedge, two wins for Chaves, 4 days in red, and another win for Ewan, and the memories of the Tour de France are fading fast. There's no reason the pint-sized Colombian can't go well here again, with the summit finish likely to suit the pure climbers.
The Course
Not a big climbing day until the riders get to the finale, with only only one other climb, the Puerto de los Blancares (9 km, 3.3%) before the final challenge of the day, the Alto de Capileira (18.7 km, 5%). The rest of the terrain is rolling at it's hardest, and it should be a relatively easy day, until the peleton hits the final climb. Even then, it should take a while for the real action to start, as there is a 5 km section of flat midway up the climb, where it will be very hard for a lone rider or even a small group to make much headway against the peleton, even if they have escaped on the harder early gradients. After that, the gradient fluctuates from 5% to 8% into the finish, with one really short, steep pinch of 14% for a few hundred metres with just under 2 kilometres remaining. This section is hard enough, and close enough to the line to make a big difference, and it is likely that the contenders will try and wait til this point to make their move.
Another hot day for the peleton, and a light headwind might make it a bit cooler, but no easier for the riders that have to drive the pace into it. It will be a tailwind for the climb, which will slightly aid the attackers.
Not a big climbing day until the riders get to the finale, with only only one other climb, the Puerto de los Blancares (9 km, 3.3%) before the final challenge of the day, the Alto de Capileira (18.7 km, 5%). The rest of the terrain is rolling at it's hardest, and it should be a relatively easy day, until the peleton hits the final climb. Even then, it should take a while for the real action to start, as there is a 5 km section of flat midway up the climb, where it will be very hard for a lone rider or even a small group to make much headway against the peleton, even if they have escaped on the harder early gradients. After that, the gradient fluctuates from 5% to 8% into the finish, with one really short, steep pinch of 14% for a few hundred metres with just under 2 kilometres remaining. This section is hard enough, and close enough to the line to make a big difference, and it is likely that the contenders will try and wait til this point to make their move.
Another hot day for the peleton, and a light headwind might make it a bit cooler, but no easier for the riders that have to drive the pace into it. It will be a tailwind for the climb, which will slightly aid the attackers.
The Tactics
Orica-Greenedge will shoulder the burden of pace-making early on, but they will mostly be happy to ensure that no one dangerous on GC makes the breakaway, and from there, there is no real incentive for them to chase it down. This is because there are both looking to conserve energy for later in the race, on the more crucial stages where they will be looking to assist Chaves, or go for other ambitions.
This will mean that the onus will be one Movistar and Katusha to do most of the work if they are keen to bring it back to contest the stage win, and again, I think that they'll be happier to conserve a bit of energy for later stages. They will definitely try and drive the pace up the final climb, as some riders like Chris Froome, Tejay Van Garderen and Samuel Sanchez have looked a bit underdone early on, and the riders in form will be keen to put them out of the GC battle early on.
Other teams may be keen to get riders a chance at a stage win, maybe Cannondale-Garmin for Daniel Martin or Lampre-Merida for Ruben Plaza, but I can't see them doing a lot of work, when it is just as likely that someone else wins, and in addition with the hot weather and the headwind, nobody is going to be too keen to help.
They'll need at least 5 minutes at the bottom of the final climb, but it looks like a breakaway could go all the way.
Orica-Greenedge will shoulder the burden of pace-making early on, but they will mostly be happy to ensure that no one dangerous on GC makes the breakaway, and from there, there is no real incentive for them to chase it down. This is because there are both looking to conserve energy for later in the race, on the more crucial stages where they will be looking to assist Chaves, or go for other ambitions.
This will mean that the onus will be one Movistar and Katusha to do most of the work if they are keen to bring it back to contest the stage win, and again, I think that they'll be happier to conserve a bit of energy for later stages. They will definitely try and drive the pace up the final climb, as some riders like Chris Froome, Tejay Van Garderen and Samuel Sanchez have looked a bit underdone early on, and the riders in form will be keen to put them out of the GC battle early on.
Other teams may be keen to get riders a chance at a stage win, maybe Cannondale-Garmin for Daniel Martin or Lampre-Merida for Ruben Plaza, but I can't see them doing a lot of work, when it is just as likely that someone else wins, and in addition with the hot weather and the headwind, nobody is going to be too keen to help.
They'll need at least 5 minutes at the bottom of the final climb, but it looks like a breakaway could go all the way.
The Contenders
Another list of breakaway candidates, and I'll try and make it rich off the lottery for my next trick. Looking for riders that have lost over 10 minutes, yet are decent climbers, preferably ones that handle the hot conditions.
Hot conditions are where Grand Tour stalwart Adam Hansen shines, he is a former winner of the hellishly hot Crocodile Trophy in his native North Queensland, and he has excelled on hot days in the past, winning a Vuelta stage last season in sweltering conditions. He is most renowned for his power on the flat, but he copes with all conditions and has even won the Tour of Turkey in the past, as well as a Giro stage over the medium mountains. He has a good nose for a breakaway, and was on the attack briefly on the previous stage before the breakaway was formed.
Team Columbia and Caja-Rural are almost definitely going to get someone in the break here, as their main presence in the race (and chance of success) is in getting in the early move. Alex Cano and Amets Txurruka look like potential winners here, Txurruka is a very handy attacking rider on the climbs and Cano has performed very well at the Tour of San Luis in the past, in very hilly terrain.
Alessandro De Marchi has had a very quiet season after wowing fans last year with displays of attacking riding over the hills of the Grand Tours. He took a win on a medium mountains stage in the Vuelta and third on a high mountains summit finish, where he was the strongest of the break, and was only beaten by Contador and Froome. He may have to work for Tejay Van Garderen and/or Samuel Sanchez, but he will want his own opportunity at some point this race, and this stage is as good a chance as any.
Should it come down to a winner from the peleton, I think the winner will be one of the big climbers. Rodriguez and Valverde look to be marking each other largely, so I think that another rider like Majka, Aru, Pozzovivo, Roche, Nieve, Sanchez, Chaves or Martin could well take advantage of that to launch an attack to escape for a win, on a similar gameplan to what Chaves has showed on the last two summit finishes.
Another list of breakaway candidates, and I'll try and make it rich off the lottery for my next trick. Looking for riders that have lost over 10 minutes, yet are decent climbers, preferably ones that handle the hot conditions.
Hot conditions are where Grand Tour stalwart Adam Hansen shines, he is a former winner of the hellishly hot Crocodile Trophy in his native North Queensland, and he has excelled on hot days in the past, winning a Vuelta stage last season in sweltering conditions. He is most renowned for his power on the flat, but he copes with all conditions and has even won the Tour of Turkey in the past, as well as a Giro stage over the medium mountains. He has a good nose for a breakaway, and was on the attack briefly on the previous stage before the breakaway was formed.
Team Columbia and Caja-Rural are almost definitely going to get someone in the break here, as their main presence in the race (and chance of success) is in getting in the early move. Alex Cano and Amets Txurruka look like potential winners here, Txurruka is a very handy attacking rider on the climbs and Cano has performed very well at the Tour of San Luis in the past, in very hilly terrain.
Alessandro De Marchi has had a very quiet season after wowing fans last year with displays of attacking riding over the hills of the Grand Tours. He took a win on a medium mountains stage in the Vuelta and third on a high mountains summit finish, where he was the strongest of the break, and was only beaten by Contador and Froome. He may have to work for Tejay Van Garderen and/or Samuel Sanchez, but he will want his own opportunity at some point this race, and this stage is as good a chance as any.
Should it come down to a winner from the peleton, I think the winner will be one of the big climbers. Rodriguez and Valverde look to be marking each other largely, so I think that another rider like Majka, Aru, Pozzovivo, Roche, Nieve, Sanchez, Chaves or Martin could well take advantage of that to launch an attack to escape for a win, on a similar gameplan to what Chaves has showed on the last two summit finishes.
The Verdict
Breakaways on these flat starts are very hard to get into, and harder even to predict who will get in them, as climbing ability, which will be needed to win the stage, isn't what determines who makes a break. Adam Hansen is a past master at getting in the early move, and is good enough to finish it off if he does.
Breakaways on these flat starts are very hard to get into, and harder even to predict who will get in them, as climbing ability, which will be needed to win the stage, isn't what determines who makes a break. Adam Hansen is a past master at getting in the early move, and is good enough to finish it off if he does.