Orica-Greenedge continue their excellent Vuelta to date, snaring another stage victory with Caleb Ewan, the only downside being that Chaves missed a split in the sprint, and lost the red jersey. He will have an opportunity to take it back in the finale here however, and Dumoulin will have to be attentive to ensure that the in-form Colombian doesn't take a second on the summit finish.
The Course
There's barely any categorised climbing on the stage today but there's a nasty kick in the tail which won't make it easy for anyone. The racebook shows that there is a nasty sting in the tail, with the last 18 kilometres really quite hard. The first third average 7%, before it is essentially flat or false flat for the next 5 km, then it goes uphill again at 7%. Even in those sections of uphill the gradient fluctuates wildly, so it will be a good test for big climbers.
The weather will be hot with only a light wind forecast. That is important as the course wends its way along the coast and the stage in this region last season resulted in crosswinds splitting up the peleton, but light winds won't create the same havoc, of course the forecast could be incorrect.
There's barely any categorised climbing on the stage today but there's a nasty kick in the tail which won't make it easy for anyone. The racebook shows that there is a nasty sting in the tail, with the last 18 kilometres really quite hard. The first third average 7%, before it is essentially flat or false flat for the next 5 km, then it goes uphill again at 7%. Even in those sections of uphill the gradient fluctuates wildly, so it will be a good test for big climbers.
The weather will be hot with only a light wind forecast. That is important as the course wends its way along the coast and the stage in this region last season resulted in crosswinds splitting up the peleton, but light winds won't create the same havoc, of course the forecast could be incorrect.
The Tactics
Giant-Alepcin will be happy to see a group that is non-threatening on GC go to the finish here, as it will increase the likelihood that Dumoulin is able to keep the jersey if there are no bonus seconds on the line. To that end, there will probably be a loose leash kept on the break by them, and it will be up to the teams that have ambitions for the stage win to bring the escapees back. Then again, it is possible that the break that goes away has a rider that is closer enough and Giant has to keep the break close enough that it can be easily chased down.
I doubt that any of the teams will be particularly motivated to chase it down if Giant don't keep it close but it will probably only take one incentivised team to do so, and Movistar or Katusha could be inclined to drive the pace if they really want to look for a win with Rodriguez or Valverde. I doubt that they'd want to over commit at this stage of the race however, and it looks a very viable day for the break to win.
Giant-Alepcin will be happy to see a group that is non-threatening on GC go to the finish here, as it will increase the likelihood that Dumoulin is able to keep the jersey if there are no bonus seconds on the line. To that end, there will probably be a loose leash kept on the break by them, and it will be up to the teams that have ambitions for the stage win to bring the escapees back. Then again, it is possible that the break that goes away has a rider that is closer enough and Giant has to keep the break close enough that it can be easily chased down.
I doubt that any of the teams will be particularly motivated to chase it down if Giant don't keep it close but it will probably only take one incentivised team to do so, and Movistar or Katusha could be inclined to drive the pace if they really want to look for a win with Rodriguez or Valverde. I doubt that they'd want to over commit at this stage of the race however, and it looks a very viable day for the break to win.
The Contenders
With the break likely to go to the finish, it's obviously a lottery to pick the winner. Essentially looking for a rider a way down on the GC, who has good classics or climbing ability.
Kristjan Durasek has had a pretty good season so far, winning a stage of the Tour de Suisse and taking the overall in the Tour of Turkey. Both results came against good if not the absolute best oppostition, and he will be hard to beat if he gets into a break. He is a strong climber on the shorter slopes, and whilst he'll never win a classic, stages of the bigger races are well within his abilities.
Jesper Hansen may be allowed to go for the stage win, especially if the team doesn't want to do the chasing for Sagan's interests. He won the Tour of Norway from an attack, and he can climb well enough to take a win if he makes a breakaway.
Amets Txurruka is always on the lookout for a good stage to attack, and he has the climbing ability to do well on this finale. He regularly opts to lose a lot of time so that he has freedom to go in the breaks, so his low placings so far are no indication of his form. He has been quite good in lower class races this year, but he saves his form for the Vuelta normally, and rides aggressively, and often joins the breakaways so he's always a strong candidate from the breaks.
It may well still come down to the peleton contesting the win, and then the names to look for are Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Martin. No other riders really have the combination of climbing ability and explosiveness to win a battle of the favourites, and it would have to be a surprise attack that beats the above on a finish like this. Maybe Esteban Chaves can repeat his win, he is certainly riding in top form at the moment, and the main favourites seem to be happy enough marking each other for the moment.
With the break likely to go to the finish, it's obviously a lottery to pick the winner. Essentially looking for a rider a way down on the GC, who has good classics or climbing ability.
Kristjan Durasek has had a pretty good season so far, winning a stage of the Tour de Suisse and taking the overall in the Tour of Turkey. Both results came against good if not the absolute best oppostition, and he will be hard to beat if he gets into a break. He is a strong climber on the shorter slopes, and whilst he'll never win a classic, stages of the bigger races are well within his abilities.
Jesper Hansen may be allowed to go for the stage win, especially if the team doesn't want to do the chasing for Sagan's interests. He won the Tour of Norway from an attack, and he can climb well enough to take a win if he makes a breakaway.
Amets Txurruka is always on the lookout for a good stage to attack, and he has the climbing ability to do well on this finale. He regularly opts to lose a lot of time so that he has freedom to go in the breaks, so his low placings so far are no indication of his form. He has been quite good in lower class races this year, but he saves his form for the Vuelta normally, and rides aggressively, and often joins the breakaways so he's always a strong candidate from the breaks.
It may well still come down to the peleton contesting the win, and then the names to look for are Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Martin. No other riders really have the combination of climbing ability and explosiveness to win a battle of the favourites, and it would have to be a surprise attack that beats the above on a finish like this. Maybe Esteban Chaves can repeat his win, he is certainly riding in top form at the moment, and the main favourites seem to be happy enough marking each other for the moment.
The Verdict
I think Daniel Martin looks in really good form, and could well take a win. He tends to have trouble winning, often leaving his attacks too late, but he is very strong at the moment.
I think Daniel Martin looks in really good form, and could well take a win. He tends to have trouble winning, often leaving his attacks too late, but he is very strong at the moment.