Peter Sagan took a win which may set the tone for a lot of stages to come, but the finish in this stage may be even too tough for him. Indeed it is difficult to pick out a favourite, which will make it a good opportunity for the breakaway to last to the finish.
The Course
There's no categorised climbing on the stage today but there's a nasty kick in the tail which won't make it easy for almost all the sprinters in the field. The racebook shows that there is a nasty sting in the tail, with the last 4 kilometres really quite hard. The first climb goes for 1 kilometre and averages a formidable 12%, before a section of rolling terrain for 500 metres and then another sharp climb of 300 metres at 10%. It's then rolling into the final 500 metres which go uphill at 6%. Really not a course for most sprinters but it suits the puncheurs, classics specialists and even the GC contenders.
The weather will be hot with only a light wind forecast. That is important as the course wends its way along the coast and the stage in this region last season resulted in crosswinds splitting up the peleton, but light winds won't create the same havoc, of course the forecast could be incorrect.
There's no categorised climbing on the stage today but there's a nasty kick in the tail which won't make it easy for almost all the sprinters in the field. The racebook shows that there is a nasty sting in the tail, with the last 4 kilometres really quite hard. The first climb goes for 1 kilometre and averages a formidable 12%, before a section of rolling terrain for 500 metres and then another sharp climb of 300 metres at 10%. It's then rolling into the final 500 metres which go uphill at 6%. Really not a course for most sprinters but it suits the puncheurs, classics specialists and even the GC contenders.
The weather will be hot with only a light wind forecast. That is important as the course wends its way along the coast and the stage in this region last season resulted in crosswinds splitting up the peleton, but light winds won't create the same havoc, of course the forecast could be incorrect.
The Tactics
Orica-Greenedge will be happy to see a group that is non-threatening on GC go to the finish here, as it will increase the likelihood that Chaves is able to keep the jersey if there are no bonus seconds on the line. To that end, there will probably be a loose leash kept on the break by them, and it will be up to the teams that have ambitions for the stage win to bring the escapees back. Then again, it is possible that the break that goes away has a rider that is closer enough and Orica has to keep the break close enough that it can be easily chased down.
I doubt that any of the teams will be particularly motivated to chase it down if Orica don't keep it close but it will probably only take one incentivised team to do so, and Movistar or Katusha could be inclined to drive the pace if they really want to look for a win with Rodriguez or Valverde. I doubt that they'd want to over commit at this stage of the race however, and it looks a very viable day for the break to win.
Orica-Greenedge will be happy to see a group that is non-threatening on GC go to the finish here, as it will increase the likelihood that Chaves is able to keep the jersey if there are no bonus seconds on the line. To that end, there will probably be a loose leash kept on the break by them, and it will be up to the teams that have ambitions for the stage win to bring the escapees back. Then again, it is possible that the break that goes away has a rider that is closer enough and Orica has to keep the break close enough that it can be easily chased down.
I doubt that any of the teams will be particularly motivated to chase it down if Orica don't keep it close but it will probably only take one incentivised team to do so, and Movistar or Katusha could be inclined to drive the pace if they really want to look for a win with Rodriguez or Valverde. I doubt that they'd want to over commit at this stage of the race however, and it looks a very viable day for the break to win.
The Contenders
With the break likely to go to the finish, it's obviously a lottery to pick the winner. Essentially looking for a rider a way down on the GC, who has good classics or climbing ability.
Kristjan Durasek has had a pretty good season so far, winning a stage of the Tour de Suisse and taking the overall in the Tour of Turkey. Both results came against good if not the absolute best oppostition, and he will be hard to beat if he gets into a break. He is a strong climber on the shorter slopes, and whilst he'll never win a classic, stages of the bigger races are well within his abilities.
Jesper Hansen may be allowed to go for the stage win, especially if the team doesn't want to do the chasing for Sagan's interests. He won the Tour of Norway from an attack, and he can climb well enough to take a win if he makes a breakaway.
Amets Txurruka is always on the lookout for a good stage to attack, and he has the climbing ability to do well on this finale. He regularly opts to lose a lot of time so that he has freedom to go in the breaks, so his low placings so far are no indication of his form. He has been quite good in lower class races this year, but he saves his form for the Vuelta normally, and rides aggressively, and often joins the breakaways so he's always a strong candidate from the breaks.
It may well still come down to the peleton contesting the win, and then the names to look for are Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Martin and Peter Sagan. No other riders really have the combination of climbing ability and explosiveness to win a battle of the favourites, and it would have to be a surprise attack that beats the above on a finish like this.
With the break likely to go to the finish, it's obviously a lottery to pick the winner. Essentially looking for a rider a way down on the GC, who has good classics or climbing ability.
Kristjan Durasek has had a pretty good season so far, winning a stage of the Tour de Suisse and taking the overall in the Tour of Turkey. Both results came against good if not the absolute best oppostition, and he will be hard to beat if he gets into a break. He is a strong climber on the shorter slopes, and whilst he'll never win a classic, stages of the bigger races are well within his abilities.
Jesper Hansen may be allowed to go for the stage win, especially if the team doesn't want to do the chasing for Sagan's interests. He won the Tour of Norway from an attack, and he can climb well enough to take a win if he makes a breakaway.
Amets Txurruka is always on the lookout for a good stage to attack, and he has the climbing ability to do well on this finale. He regularly opts to lose a lot of time so that he has freedom to go in the breaks, so his low placings so far are no indication of his form. He has been quite good in lower class races this year, but he saves his form for the Vuelta normally, and rides aggressively, and often joins the breakaways so he's always a strong candidate from the breaks.
It may well still come down to the peleton contesting the win, and then the names to look for are Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Martin and Peter Sagan. No other riders really have the combination of climbing ability and explosiveness to win a battle of the favourites, and it would have to be a surprise attack that beats the above on a finish like this.
The Verdict
Amets Txurruka is a fun rider to watch, and it would be good to see him take a stage win in his home race. If it comes down to the peleton, it is hard to past Rodriguez on his current form.
Amets Txurruka is a fun rider to watch, and it would be good to see him take a stage win in his home race. If it comes down to the peleton, it is hard to past Rodriguez on his current form.