A impressive win for Esteban Chaves and an interesting GC battle kicked off this edition of the Vuelta. Now we head into what will be a consistent theme of this year's course, hilly stages which end on the flat. It should come down to a reduced bunch sprint, but there's always the possibility that an aggressive move will win the day.
The Course
Mostly flat here, but with some challenging climbs to spice things up. After 14 kilometres there is a Category 3 climb, Alto de Mijas (6 km, 7.1%) which is really a pretty nasty climb, especially for a Cat 3, and that is where the break will go, if it hasn't already. There is a gradual, stepped descent from the summit, but it is flat from there for about 20 kilometres before riders begin the first Category 1 climb of the Vuelta, the Purto del Leon (16.1 km, 5.1%). It is long rather than hard, and is fairly regular, with only a shorter pinch of 15% really being difficult. The sprinters won't find it easy though, and it will only be the better climbers that make it over this stern test. The summit comes 82 kilometres from the finish, so too far out from the finish for attacks, particularly with the relatively easy nature of the terrain. Again, it's a gradual descent down to the flat, with a few shallow climbs along the way. The final 50 kilometres are fairly flat, with only a few uncategorised climbs, which will be actually quite tough for the unaware. There's a 3 km uphill at about 4%, and then a descent into another climb of 1.5 km at 7%. That climb ends with 7 km remaining, and after a descent there are 4.9 km to go, which are completely flat and non-technical.
The weather should be hot, at a balmy 31 Degrees, and with only a light wind present, it won't be an easy day for the riders. It will advantage those that excel in the hot weather, so I'll bear that in mind in the contenders preview.
Mostly flat here, but with some challenging climbs to spice things up. After 14 kilometres there is a Category 3 climb, Alto de Mijas (6 km, 7.1%) which is really a pretty nasty climb, especially for a Cat 3, and that is where the break will go, if it hasn't already. There is a gradual, stepped descent from the summit, but it is flat from there for about 20 kilometres before riders begin the first Category 1 climb of the Vuelta, the Purto del Leon (16.1 km, 5.1%). It is long rather than hard, and is fairly regular, with only a shorter pinch of 15% really being difficult. The sprinters won't find it easy though, and it will only be the better climbers that make it over this stern test. The summit comes 82 kilometres from the finish, so too far out from the finish for attacks, particularly with the relatively easy nature of the terrain. Again, it's a gradual descent down to the flat, with a few shallow climbs along the way. The final 50 kilometres are fairly flat, with only a few uncategorised climbs, which will be actually quite tough for the unaware. There's a 3 km uphill at about 4%, and then a descent into another climb of 1.5 km at 7%. That climb ends with 7 km remaining, and after a descent there are 4.9 km to go, which are completely flat and non-technical.
The weather should be hot, at a balmy 31 Degrees, and with only a light wind present, it won't be an easy day for the riders. It will advantage those that excel in the hot weather, so I'll bear that in mind in the contenders preview.
The Tactics
Orica-Greenedge will take control of the pace-making here to protect their leader's jersey, as well as work for a possible Caleb Ewan victory, and the onus will be one them throughout the stage to keep the breakaway in check. They will probably get some assistance from the sprinter's teams and I would expect Cofidis and Giant-Alpecin to lend a rider or two to help.
The other factor will be the teams of the better climbers who can also sprint will be keen to make the race harder on the climbs, to advantage their riders over faster men who don't quite climb as well. For instance Giant may well decide to drive the pace a bit higher as Degenkolb is generally regarded as a better climber than Bouhanni, but the Frenchman is normally faster in an out and out sprint, so it will be important to fatigue him or even possibly drop him before the finale. Movistar shouldn't be counted out on the terrain either, and if the race is run at a very high pace, JJ Rojas and Alejandro Valverde come right into contention.
It will be too far out for the attackers to go on the big climbs, but they will like the look of the lumpy finish, and particularly the second climb could provide a nice springboard, as it is immediately followed by a sharp descent and only 5 km remain from there. Especially if it is a tough day in the saddle and there aren't many domestiques on the sprinter's teams left, then the attackers could prosper on this finish. On the other hand, there are some very strong domestiques here, with Orica built for racing these hilly sprinting stages, and riders like the in form Tom Dumoulin working for John Degenkolb.
Orica-Greenedge will take control of the pace-making here to protect their leader's jersey, as well as work for a possible Caleb Ewan victory, and the onus will be one them throughout the stage to keep the breakaway in check. They will probably get some assistance from the sprinter's teams and I would expect Cofidis and Giant-Alpecin to lend a rider or two to help.
The other factor will be the teams of the better climbers who can also sprint will be keen to make the race harder on the climbs, to advantage their riders over faster men who don't quite climb as well. For instance Giant may well decide to drive the pace a bit higher as Degenkolb is generally regarded as a better climber than Bouhanni, but the Frenchman is normally faster in an out and out sprint, so it will be important to fatigue him or even possibly drop him before the finale. Movistar shouldn't be counted out on the terrain either, and if the race is run at a very high pace, JJ Rojas and Alejandro Valverde come right into contention.
It will be too far out for the attackers to go on the big climbs, but they will like the look of the lumpy finish, and particularly the second climb could provide a nice springboard, as it is immediately followed by a sharp descent and only 5 km remain from there. Especially if it is a tough day in the saddle and there aren't many domestiques on the sprinter's teams left, then the attackers could prosper on this finish. On the other hand, there are some very strong domestiques here, with Orica built for racing these hilly sprinting stages, and riders like the in form Tom Dumoulin working for John Degenkolb.
The Contenders
Nacer Bouhanni is probably the fastest rider present, but he is also an accomplished climber, and he has proven in the past that he can stick on well when it gets hard. He has been in relatively good form recently, easily winning some bunch sprints against an inferior field in the Tour de l'Ain, and the hillier one day race the Trofeo Getxo. He has had quite a bit of bad luck this season, crashing in the French Championships when he looked up for the win, and then early on in the Tour de France as well to take him out of that as well. He has come back in superb form however, so he is clearly still well motivated and will looking to take advantage of his good form here. He doesn't have the strongest team at his disposal unfortunately, and he'll probably only have Julien Simon to help him in the finale. He's raced well in Spain in the past, and I wouldn't expect him to be effected by the heat.
John Degenkolb is another very motivated rider after Tour de France where he couldn't make the most of the stages that suited his abilities. He was left rueing poor team support after the cobbled stage, which he should really have won, and then found the finishing climbs of other stages just slightly beyond his capabilities. He has stated that he is very motivated coming into the race here, and his team has thrown it's full support behind the German. Despite being a larger rider with a powerful sprint, he is a good climber, and will handle these climbs today, unless it is really hard. He can cope with the hot temperatures, as he showed when he won on a very tough finish in Dubai in the heat. He will have strong riders like Tom Dumoulin, Thierry Hupond, Lawson Craddock and maybe even Luka Mezgec present at the finish today, and will be one of the best positioned in the finale.
Caleb Ewan has had an impressive, if relatively low-key start to his professional career. He has taken wins in the Tour de Langkawi, Tour of Korea, Herald Sun Tour and the Vuelta La Rioja, but he hasn't been far off at World Tour level either, finishing 2nd to the likes of Kittel, Kristoff and Cavendish in better quality races like the Tours of Turkey, Norway and Poland. He won't have to beat those elite sprinters here, and it will be interesting to see how he goes at this level. Expectations aren't super high for the young Australian, at least in this race, and his development is considered more important than actual results. Nonetheless, he will be keen to do well, and he will have strong support if he is present at the finish. He is a good climber, and he is a lighter sprinter, so he should be able to get over the climbs that the other fast men can manage, but he is still young and doesn't have the endurance in his legs that the more experienced riders have. He will have great support in the form of Simon Gerrans, Daryl Impey and Jens Keukeliere all of whom could step up and contest the finish if Ewan doesn't make it. SImon Gerrans in particular looks hungry for a win and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if he took a win, maybe not here, but at some stage in a reduced bunch sprint.
Peter Sagan would be a top contender for this sort of course, but history has shown that he often isn't really interested at doing too much at the Vuelta, preferring to use it as preparation for the World Championships. Certainly he hasn't raced since the Tour, apart from the criteriums, where he presumably makes a lot of money and has a good time partying. He may be in better form this time around, but I wouldn't bet on it, and I'm discounting him from the contenders until he starts to show some form.
Danny Van Poppel is a 22 year old sprinter who has been in very good form recently, taking two wins in Tour de Wallonie, and numerous other placings in decent quality races. He isn't the absolute fastest rider, nor does he handle the climbing the best, but should find a happy medium on a few stages here where he can do well. I would be surprised if he could win in this sort of company, but expect to see him filling out the top 5 and if he gets a lucky break or two, he could find himself on the top step of the podium.
Kris Boeckmans was in very good form at the start of the season, winning a number of second tier races, over a wide variety of stages, including flat, hilly and cobbled races. He hasn't been able to recapture that level of performance in the second half of the season, so I'll wait until he shows himself to be riding well, before I can see him beating the riders here.
Tom Van Asbroeck is having a breakout year as a sprinter, as he was regarded as more of a cobbles racer in previous seasons. He has had a number of good results behind some of the top sprinters in the world, and if he can take that next step, he will become one of those top men himelf. This is his first Grand Tour, so it will be a good opportunity for him to do so here. He was climbing very well at the Tour of Poland, where he contested the sprint at the end of a medium mountains stage, so he shouldn't be fazed by the climbs here. He'll be looking forward to proving that he is a name to watch in the sprinting ranks in the future, and I'm not going to say that he can't achieve his goal.
Nacer Bouhanni is probably the fastest rider present, but he is also an accomplished climber, and he has proven in the past that he can stick on well when it gets hard. He has been in relatively good form recently, easily winning some bunch sprints against an inferior field in the Tour de l'Ain, and the hillier one day race the Trofeo Getxo. He has had quite a bit of bad luck this season, crashing in the French Championships when he looked up for the win, and then early on in the Tour de France as well to take him out of that as well. He has come back in superb form however, so he is clearly still well motivated and will looking to take advantage of his good form here. He doesn't have the strongest team at his disposal unfortunately, and he'll probably only have Julien Simon to help him in the finale. He's raced well in Spain in the past, and I wouldn't expect him to be effected by the heat.
John Degenkolb is another very motivated rider after Tour de France where he couldn't make the most of the stages that suited his abilities. He was left rueing poor team support after the cobbled stage, which he should really have won, and then found the finishing climbs of other stages just slightly beyond his capabilities. He has stated that he is very motivated coming into the race here, and his team has thrown it's full support behind the German. Despite being a larger rider with a powerful sprint, he is a good climber, and will handle these climbs today, unless it is really hard. He can cope with the hot temperatures, as he showed when he won on a very tough finish in Dubai in the heat. He will have strong riders like Tom Dumoulin, Thierry Hupond, Lawson Craddock and maybe even Luka Mezgec present at the finish today, and will be one of the best positioned in the finale.
Caleb Ewan has had an impressive, if relatively low-key start to his professional career. He has taken wins in the Tour de Langkawi, Tour of Korea, Herald Sun Tour and the Vuelta La Rioja, but he hasn't been far off at World Tour level either, finishing 2nd to the likes of Kittel, Kristoff and Cavendish in better quality races like the Tours of Turkey, Norway and Poland. He won't have to beat those elite sprinters here, and it will be interesting to see how he goes at this level. Expectations aren't super high for the young Australian, at least in this race, and his development is considered more important than actual results. Nonetheless, he will be keen to do well, and he will have strong support if he is present at the finish. He is a good climber, and he is a lighter sprinter, so he should be able to get over the climbs that the other fast men can manage, but he is still young and doesn't have the endurance in his legs that the more experienced riders have. He will have great support in the form of Simon Gerrans, Daryl Impey and Jens Keukeliere all of whom could step up and contest the finish if Ewan doesn't make it. SImon Gerrans in particular looks hungry for a win and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if he took a win, maybe not here, but at some stage in a reduced bunch sprint.
Peter Sagan would be a top contender for this sort of course, but history has shown that he often isn't really interested at doing too much at the Vuelta, preferring to use it as preparation for the World Championships. Certainly he hasn't raced since the Tour, apart from the criteriums, where he presumably makes a lot of money and has a good time partying. He may be in better form this time around, but I wouldn't bet on it, and I'm discounting him from the contenders until he starts to show some form.
Danny Van Poppel is a 22 year old sprinter who has been in very good form recently, taking two wins in Tour de Wallonie, and numerous other placings in decent quality races. He isn't the absolute fastest rider, nor does he handle the climbing the best, but should find a happy medium on a few stages here where he can do well. I would be surprised if he could win in this sort of company, but expect to see him filling out the top 5 and if he gets a lucky break or two, he could find himself on the top step of the podium.
Kris Boeckmans was in very good form at the start of the season, winning a number of second tier races, over a wide variety of stages, including flat, hilly and cobbled races. He hasn't been able to recapture that level of performance in the second half of the season, so I'll wait until he shows himself to be riding well, before I can see him beating the riders here.
Tom Van Asbroeck is having a breakout year as a sprinter, as he was regarded as more of a cobbles racer in previous seasons. He has had a number of good results behind some of the top sprinters in the world, and if he can take that next step, he will become one of those top men himelf. This is his first Grand Tour, so it will be a good opportunity for him to do so here. He was climbing very well at the Tour of Poland, where he contested the sprint at the end of a medium mountains stage, so he shouldn't be fazed by the climbs here. He'll be looking forward to proving that he is a name to watch in the sprinting ranks in the future, and I'm not going to say that he can't achieve his goal.
The Verdict
I think Degenkolb will have a good chance of opening his account on this first stage for the fast men. He's proven himself to be as good as anyone on the hard days, and I think he'll be hard to beat here.
I think Degenkolb will have a good chance of opening his account on this first stage for the fast men. He's proven himself to be as good as anyone on the hard days, and I think he'll be hard to beat here.