A dramatic penultimate day of the Vuelta saw Tom Dumoulin finally crack, delivering the jersey to Fabio Aru after a fine display by his Astana team. Rodriguez and Majka will round out the podium, provided they stay upright on this final stage, which is the normal Grand Tour processional followed by a criterium-style circuit.
The Course
The Vuelta organisers have cunningly shortened this stage to keep this stage from taking forever, as is common on these final stages. The race starts some 40 kilometres outside of Madrid, and the riders will make their way in there slowly. Once they hit the circuit however, the pace will reach a respectable level, as the attacks will come from the riders that haven't had much of a chance to show themselves so far this Vuelta. The circuit lightly rolls through some shallow gradients in Madrid over it's 5.9 kilometre course, which is fairly technical, as it has three U-turns and two right-angle turns in its T-shaped layout. The final turn comes with 1 kilometre remaining, and whilst it will be important to be well positioned through there with team support, it will be possible to make up ground from behind on the wide roads into the finish.
The weather was hot at the start of the Vuelta, but it has cooled down to very pleasant days of around 20-21 Degrees, with the rain staying away for the majority of the race. The final stage will be no different, and should be a lovely finish to what has been a memorable edition of the race.
The Vuelta organisers have cunningly shortened this stage to keep this stage from taking forever, as is common on these final stages. The race starts some 40 kilometres outside of Madrid, and the riders will make their way in there slowly. Once they hit the circuit however, the pace will reach a respectable level, as the attacks will come from the riders that haven't had much of a chance to show themselves so far this Vuelta. The circuit lightly rolls through some shallow gradients in Madrid over it's 5.9 kilometre course, which is fairly technical, as it has three U-turns and two right-angle turns in its T-shaped layout. The final turn comes with 1 kilometre remaining, and whilst it will be important to be well positioned through there with team support, it will be possible to make up ground from behind on the wide roads into the finish.
The weather was hot at the start of the Vuelta, but it has cooled down to very pleasant days of around 20-21 Degrees, with the rain staying away for the majority of the race. The final stage will be no different, and should be a lovely finish to what has been a memorable edition of the race.
The Tactics
Not much to say here, the riders who fancy their chances in a break on a flat day will have a go here, and the teams of the sprinters will chase them down to contest the bunch sprint at the end. There may be some complications there, as Giant-Alpecin are going to be pretty tired after working for Dumoulin for most of the Vuelta, but they do have a lot of riders who specialise on the flat, and have been getting dropped early on in those days, so they will be more ready to help Degenkolb here. Of the other teams, Trek will lend a hand for Van Poppel, MTN will ride for Sbaragli, BMC for Drucker and Lotto-Soudal will be keen to give Tosh van der Sande a chance. It has been a long wait for the sprinters, and I doubt that they will want to miss out here, so a scenario other than a bunch sprint seems unlikely.
That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Adam Hansen attempt an attack on the final lap. The Australian has been quite active this Vuelta, attempting similar moves on two other stages, and joining the breakaway on a few others, but hasn't quite had the luck to take a win yet. Here, there are less leadout riders than before, and he may well have a better chance of staying away.
Not much to say here, the riders who fancy their chances in a break on a flat day will have a go here, and the teams of the sprinters will chase them down to contest the bunch sprint at the end. There may be some complications there, as Giant-Alpecin are going to be pretty tired after working for Dumoulin for most of the Vuelta, but they do have a lot of riders who specialise on the flat, and have been getting dropped early on in those days, so they will be more ready to help Degenkolb here. Of the other teams, Trek will lend a hand for Van Poppel, MTN will ride for Sbaragli, BMC for Drucker and Lotto-Soudal will be keen to give Tosh van der Sande a chance. It has been a long wait for the sprinters, and I doubt that they will want to miss out here, so a scenario other than a bunch sprint seems unlikely.
That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Adam Hansen attempt an attack on the final lap. The Australian has been quite active this Vuelta, attempting similar moves on two other stages, and joining the breakaway on a few others, but hasn't quite had the luck to take a win yet. Here, there are less leadout riders than before, and he may well have a better chance of staying away.
The Contenders
John Degenkolb is still the fastest man in this race, but that hasn't helped him on the previous stages, where he has been boxed in the finales, too far back or dropped on the climbs. This stage should be slightly less chaotic, and the flat stage will suit his leadout men a lot more than the other hilly sprint days have. The big question will be whether he and his leadout have the energy required to pull out a big performance, after working as hard as they could for Dumoulin over the rest of the Vuelta. Degenkolb will be vulnerable without his team leading out, as this race has shown that he doesn't handle the positioning aspect of sprinting too well.
Danny Van Poppel confirmed his potential in the sprints by taking a nice victory in the last sprint stage, overcoming a virus which had seen him struggle in the early part of the race. He doesn't really have a leadout train, and will have to do most of the work for himself, so he'll be hoping that it is a fairly chaotic sprint, as he won't be able to compete against well-organised leadout trains.
Jean-Pierre Drucker must be wondering why he has bothered sticking around for the second half of the Vuelta as he has no business being in the mountains, and is a regular passenger of the autobus at the back of the race. Here is where he'll have a chance to shine again, but he'll have to do it without a leadout. Drucker handles the positioning aspect of sprinting quite well on his own however, he has a lot of experience in the cobbled classics of doing his own thing, and he won't as disadvantaged as some would be.
Kristan Sbaragli has the luxury of a full squad at his disposal for today's stage and MTN-Qhubeka will be on a high after Meintjes has effectively wrapped up their highest GC finish on a Grand Tour. It wouldn't be a big surprise if the Italian gets dropped off in a very good spot to have a shot at the win here, and he has proven that he has the pace to finish it off, given the opportunity.
Daryl Impey looks to be the nominated sprinter for Orica-Greenedge at the moment, and will benefit from a quality leadout here. He finished 2nd on the last sprint stage, getting caught on the front just a bit too early, and getting swept up by Van Poppel in the final metres, but if he and his team can time it a bit better here, then Impey does have a surprisingly rapid acceleration which will keep the opposition sprinters honest. He has clearly been building form throughout the race, as he makes his way back from injury, and will be one of the few that is stronger here than he was at the beginning.
Tom Van Asbroeck has had a pretty torrid time of it at this Vuelta, looking a shadow of the rider that took a number of top finishes earlier in the season. He will be a lot more at home on the flat however, and his Lotto NL-Jumbo team will be very keen to grab another stage win, after which they can definitely claim that they've had a successful Vuelta. He'll have to be in better form than previous days, but he does have the quality to be right up there amongst this group of sprinters.
John Degenkolb is still the fastest man in this race, but that hasn't helped him on the previous stages, where he has been boxed in the finales, too far back or dropped on the climbs. This stage should be slightly less chaotic, and the flat stage will suit his leadout men a lot more than the other hilly sprint days have. The big question will be whether he and his leadout have the energy required to pull out a big performance, after working as hard as they could for Dumoulin over the rest of the Vuelta. Degenkolb will be vulnerable without his team leading out, as this race has shown that he doesn't handle the positioning aspect of sprinting too well.
Danny Van Poppel confirmed his potential in the sprints by taking a nice victory in the last sprint stage, overcoming a virus which had seen him struggle in the early part of the race. He doesn't really have a leadout train, and will have to do most of the work for himself, so he'll be hoping that it is a fairly chaotic sprint, as he won't be able to compete against well-organised leadout trains.
Jean-Pierre Drucker must be wondering why he has bothered sticking around for the second half of the Vuelta as he has no business being in the mountains, and is a regular passenger of the autobus at the back of the race. Here is where he'll have a chance to shine again, but he'll have to do it without a leadout. Drucker handles the positioning aspect of sprinting quite well on his own however, he has a lot of experience in the cobbled classics of doing his own thing, and he won't as disadvantaged as some would be.
Kristan Sbaragli has the luxury of a full squad at his disposal for today's stage and MTN-Qhubeka will be on a high after Meintjes has effectively wrapped up their highest GC finish on a Grand Tour. It wouldn't be a big surprise if the Italian gets dropped off in a very good spot to have a shot at the win here, and he has proven that he has the pace to finish it off, given the opportunity.
Daryl Impey looks to be the nominated sprinter for Orica-Greenedge at the moment, and will benefit from a quality leadout here. He finished 2nd on the last sprint stage, getting caught on the front just a bit too early, and getting swept up by Van Poppel in the final metres, but if he and his team can time it a bit better here, then Impey does have a surprisingly rapid acceleration which will keep the opposition sprinters honest. He has clearly been building form throughout the race, as he makes his way back from injury, and will be one of the few that is stronger here than he was at the beginning.
Tom Van Asbroeck has had a pretty torrid time of it at this Vuelta, looking a shadow of the rider that took a number of top finishes earlier in the season. He will be a lot more at home on the flat however, and his Lotto NL-Jumbo team will be very keen to grab another stage win, after which they can definitely claim that they've had a successful Vuelta. He'll have to be in better form than previous days, but he does have the quality to be right up there amongst this group of sprinters.
The Verdict
Even when he has lost, Degenkolb has looked the fastest, and with this stage a lot more favourable for his leadout guys, he should be in a lot better position to make use of that pace.
Even when he has lost, Degenkolb has looked the fastest, and with this stage a lot more favourable for his leadout guys, he should be in a lot better position to make use of that pace.