This time trial is shaping as the decisive stage of this Vuelta, after the mountain stages haven't seen one rider emerge dominant as of yet. All eyes will be on Tom Dumoulin today, as he is the most credentialed time triallist in the field, and could well lay the foundation for his first Grand Tour win. In fact it will be his first Grand Tour of note for GC, his previous best was 33rd in the 2014 Tour de France.
The Course
An almost entirely flat 38.7 kilometre time trial is in store for the riders here, the first 10 kilometres goes upwards at 1.4% on average over non-technical terrain, which is nowehere near enough to help the climbers, and still heavily favours the TT specialists. From there, there is a gradual descent, again over easy terrain into the pancake flat part of the course. which runs for about 15 kilometres and brings the riders back into town. There's a nasty 1 kilometre climb which averages 9%, which tops out with 4 kilometres remaining, and from there it is a technical run into the finish line with a slight uphill kick to the line.
The weather forecast is for a windy day, with a northeasterly blowing at about 25 km/hr, which will make it one of the windiest days for this Vuelta. It will be cross wind for the initial section, turning to a headwind for the gradual descent, and then is a cross-headwind to cross wind for the flat section back to town. The finale wends it's way all over, but notably it will be a headwind for the climb.
An almost entirely flat 38.7 kilometre time trial is in store for the riders here, the first 10 kilometres goes upwards at 1.4% on average over non-technical terrain, which is nowehere near enough to help the climbers, and still heavily favours the TT specialists. From there, there is a gradual descent, again over easy terrain into the pancake flat part of the course. which runs for about 15 kilometres and brings the riders back into town. There's a nasty 1 kilometre climb which averages 9%, which tops out with 4 kilometres remaining, and from there it is a technical run into the finish line with a slight uphill kick to the line.
The weather forecast is for a windy day, with a northeasterly blowing at about 25 km/hr, which will make it one of the windiest days for this Vuelta. It will be cross wind for the initial section, turning to a headwind for the gradual descent, and then is a cross-headwind to cross wind for the flat section back to town. The finale wends it's way all over, but notably it will be a headwind for the climb.
The Contenders
Tom Dumoulin was the big favourite for this stage before the start of this Vuelta, and his odds will only have gotten shorter with his performances thus far. He has proved himself to be an elite time triallist, arguably the best in the world at the moment. He has 3 victories from 5 TTs this season, and notably won over a similar course (had a bit more climbing) in the Tour de Suisse, where he was also in the calculation for the GC. On that day, he put 35 seconds in Geraint Thomas, 1.26 into Rafal Majka, and 2 and a half minutes into Chaves, Moreno and Pozzovivo, all of whom he faces again here. At times, he has had off performances when he is tired, in the Dutch nationals he was a disappointing 4th, claiming fatigue from the Tour de Suisse. That race was obviously a lot less gruelling than the Vuelta, but Dumoulin has shown that he is really strong over some really hard climbing in the mountains over the past few stages, and he'll be a lot happier here. He will be happy with the generally non-technical nature of the course, and the steep climb towards the finish won't hinder him overly as he proved in the Pais Vasco TT, which had two very steep climbs at the finish. He should win this stage, but the question will be whether he can pull enough time on his rivals to put himself in a winning position.
Vasil Kiriyenka is the strongest opposition for the stage win here, and the experienced Belarusian might be able to spring an upset here. He took a win in the Giro TT over a very long course, and he is clearly at home over the longer distances, as he also has a strong history in the World Championships TT, where he has finished 3rd once and 4th twice in recent seasons. He has been quiet this race, but will no doubt be building his form for the Worlds, and will be keen to put a good showing in here to build for his crack at the Worlds. He hasn't faced up a great deal against Dumoulin, he last faced the Dutchman at the 2014 Worlds, where he finished 7 seconds behind. He won't deal with the climb in the finish as well as Dumoulin, and his condition is still uncertain, but if he is in decent form, then he will definitely be more fresh than the GC contending Dumoulin.
Geraint Thomas is another Sky rider who is a similar position to Kiriyenka. At his best, he would be a rival for the stage win, but he hasn't shown that he's on form recently, and he would normally be actively looking for a stage win over stages like the last few.
Damien Howson won't be beating the top 2 here, but he has the potential to do a good ride, and hopefully land a top 5. It is his first Grand Tour, and how his body reacts after 16 stages behind him is an unknown, but he has been riding well for his team leader Chaves, showing good condition, which should stand him in good stead here.
Luis Leon Sanchez is an enigmatic performer in the TTs, he tends to save his best for when he is least expected to do well. In the long Giro TT, he made the most of early favourable weather to push Kiryienka very close for the win, and he has also done other strong rides towards the ends of Grand Tours. Whilst it would be little surprise if he did well here, he's very unlikely to win the stage.
For the GC riders, it will be more about who has managed to save the most energy over the course of the race, and has used the recovery over the rest day to improve their condition. Majka is the best of the rest against the clock, but he is only half a minute in front of Dumoulin, and he needed more time than that. Aru and Rodriguez have been improving against the clock, but both will almost definitely lose over two minutes to Dumoulin here, and two and a half to three minutes is more likely. I'm rooting for Rodriguez here, he is clearly in great condition, and it would be a great way to top off his career, with that elusive Grand Tour victory. If he can minimise the gap, say to 30 seconds, then he could take a shot at the win in the final mountains stages. Aru is the superior time triallist however, and did a particularly good one to finish only 1.36 down on Kiriyenka over a pan-flat TT course in the Tour of Poland.
Tom Dumoulin was the big favourite for this stage before the start of this Vuelta, and his odds will only have gotten shorter with his performances thus far. He has proved himself to be an elite time triallist, arguably the best in the world at the moment. He has 3 victories from 5 TTs this season, and notably won over a similar course (had a bit more climbing) in the Tour de Suisse, where he was also in the calculation for the GC. On that day, he put 35 seconds in Geraint Thomas, 1.26 into Rafal Majka, and 2 and a half minutes into Chaves, Moreno and Pozzovivo, all of whom he faces again here. At times, he has had off performances when he is tired, in the Dutch nationals he was a disappointing 4th, claiming fatigue from the Tour de Suisse. That race was obviously a lot less gruelling than the Vuelta, but Dumoulin has shown that he is really strong over some really hard climbing in the mountains over the past few stages, and he'll be a lot happier here. He will be happy with the generally non-technical nature of the course, and the steep climb towards the finish won't hinder him overly as he proved in the Pais Vasco TT, which had two very steep climbs at the finish. He should win this stage, but the question will be whether he can pull enough time on his rivals to put himself in a winning position.
Vasil Kiriyenka is the strongest opposition for the stage win here, and the experienced Belarusian might be able to spring an upset here. He took a win in the Giro TT over a very long course, and he is clearly at home over the longer distances, as he also has a strong history in the World Championships TT, where he has finished 3rd once and 4th twice in recent seasons. He has been quiet this race, but will no doubt be building his form for the Worlds, and will be keen to put a good showing in here to build for his crack at the Worlds. He hasn't faced up a great deal against Dumoulin, he last faced the Dutchman at the 2014 Worlds, where he finished 7 seconds behind. He won't deal with the climb in the finish as well as Dumoulin, and his condition is still uncertain, but if he is in decent form, then he will definitely be more fresh than the GC contending Dumoulin.
Geraint Thomas is another Sky rider who is a similar position to Kiriyenka. At his best, he would be a rival for the stage win, but he hasn't shown that he's on form recently, and he would normally be actively looking for a stage win over stages like the last few.
Damien Howson won't be beating the top 2 here, but he has the potential to do a good ride, and hopefully land a top 5. It is his first Grand Tour, and how his body reacts after 16 stages behind him is an unknown, but he has been riding well for his team leader Chaves, showing good condition, which should stand him in good stead here.
Luis Leon Sanchez is an enigmatic performer in the TTs, he tends to save his best for when he is least expected to do well. In the long Giro TT, he made the most of early favourable weather to push Kiryienka very close for the win, and he has also done other strong rides towards the ends of Grand Tours. Whilst it would be little surprise if he did well here, he's very unlikely to win the stage.
For the GC riders, it will be more about who has managed to save the most energy over the course of the race, and has used the recovery over the rest day to improve their condition. Majka is the best of the rest against the clock, but he is only half a minute in front of Dumoulin, and he needed more time than that. Aru and Rodriguez have been improving against the clock, but both will almost definitely lose over two minutes to Dumoulin here, and two and a half to three minutes is more likely. I'm rooting for Rodriguez here, he is clearly in great condition, and it would be a great way to top off his career, with that elusive Grand Tour victory. If he can minimise the gap, say to 30 seconds, then he could take a shot at the win in the final mountains stages. Aru is the superior time triallist however, and did a particularly good one to finish only 1.36 down on Kiriyenka over a pan-flat TT course in the Tour of Poland.
The Verdict
Tom Dumoulin to take the win and the red jersey here. Hopefully 'Purito', Aru and Majka can stay close enough to keep it competitive in the final stages, and I think at least one will be close enough to challenge the Dutchman and keep it interesting.
Tom Dumoulin to take the win and the red jersey here. Hopefully 'Purito', Aru and Majka can stay close enough to keep it competitive in the final stages, and I think at least one will be close enough to challenge the Dutchman and keep it interesting.