The circus on the periphery of the Vuelta continues to take most of the spotlight, which is a pity as the racing is top-quality. The break almost made it yesterday, with Bouet caught within 200 metres of the finish line and Danny Van Poppel emerging to take the first Grand Tour win of his short career.
This stage could be another for the sprinters, but it will require a lot of work from them and their teams to keep it together and a successful breakaway seems more likely.
This stage could be another for the sprinters, but it will require a lot of work from them and their teams to keep it together and a successful breakaway seems more likely.
The Course
A medium mountains day is in store for the riders today, with an uphill, but not summit finish to the stage. With 178 kilometres to traverse the riders start on an uncategorised climb, which will be a good spot for a strong breakaway to launch. A gradual descent leads to the 30 kilometre mark, and then the riders will be ascending until the 70 kilometre mark, with little respite. On the way they will tackle the Alto Collado de Oseja (8.2 km, 3.7%) and then the Alto de Beraton (10.9 km, 4.7%), which has some nasty gradients in its later half. A very gradual descent from the summit will last for about 50 kilometres and there is only one further uncategorised climb before the sprint point. The peleton will then ascend the Alto del Moncayo (8.5 km, 4.5%) which summits with 33 kilometres to go. Another gradual descent shouldn't provide many difficulties to the 15 km left point, and there is mostly flat through to the finish. The final 5 kilometres are interesting, with a false flat leading into a descent then a climb of 1400 metres at 5%, which ends as the riders pass underneath the flamme rouge. The final kilometre is flat and untechnical to the finish line.
The weather will be relatively mild for the riders, with temperatures in the mid 20s, and only a small chance of showers. A light wind will be a cross-headwind for most of the day, but shouldn't have a huge bearing on the outcome.
A medium mountains day is in store for the riders today, with an uphill, but not summit finish to the stage. With 178 kilometres to traverse the riders start on an uncategorised climb, which will be a good spot for a strong breakaway to launch. A gradual descent leads to the 30 kilometre mark, and then the riders will be ascending until the 70 kilometre mark, with little respite. On the way they will tackle the Alto Collado de Oseja (8.2 km, 3.7%) and then the Alto de Beraton (10.9 km, 4.7%), which has some nasty gradients in its later half. A very gradual descent from the summit will last for about 50 kilometres and there is only one further uncategorised climb before the sprint point. The peleton will then ascend the Alto del Moncayo (8.5 km, 4.5%) which summits with 33 kilometres to go. Another gradual descent shouldn't provide many difficulties to the 15 km left point, and there is mostly flat through to the finish. The final 5 kilometres are interesting, with a false flat leading into a descent then a climb of 1400 metres at 5%, which ends as the riders pass underneath the flamme rouge. The final kilometre is flat and untechnical to the finish line.
The weather will be relatively mild for the riders, with temperatures in the mid 20s, and only a small chance of showers. A light wind will be a cross-headwind for most of the day, but shouldn't have a huge bearing on the outcome.
The Tactics
How this stage plays out will likely come down to how Giant-Alpecin want to do it. John Degenkolb won't be happy after a number of close calls, and indeed was hitting the handlebars with his fist as he passed over the line after being blocked in on the sprint finish of the last stage. Sprint opportunities are limited from now on, and this may be the final chance before Madrid. He should be able to survive the climbs, as they are super tough affairs, but the main problem may be that his team is unable or unwilling to control the break. It is tough terrain to chase down a decent-sized breakaway, and Giant-Alpecin probably won't have much help, with other teams sprinters unlikely to make it to the finale. They won't want to do all the work themselves, so unless Orica-Greenedge or MTN-Qhubeka fancy helping, they'll quickly abandon the chase to save energy. Another factor is that all of those teams have GC riders who are performing well, and are looking to support those guys their full squad in the coming stages.
So it looks like a breakaway are going to be the likely winners, and in particular, it will suit the really strong breakaway rider, probably a puncheur. The initial climb will likely be the main staging point for the break to go, so it is important to be a good climber there, as well as having to deal with all the mountainous terrain in the parcours. The finale is also one for the punchy riders with the short climb ended with only 1 kilometre to go, and that climb is likely to be key to deciding the winner from the break.
How this stage plays out will likely come down to how Giant-Alpecin want to do it. John Degenkolb won't be happy after a number of close calls, and indeed was hitting the handlebars with his fist as he passed over the line after being blocked in on the sprint finish of the last stage. Sprint opportunities are limited from now on, and this may be the final chance before Madrid. He should be able to survive the climbs, as they are super tough affairs, but the main problem may be that his team is unable or unwilling to control the break. It is tough terrain to chase down a decent-sized breakaway, and Giant-Alpecin probably won't have much help, with other teams sprinters unlikely to make it to the finale. They won't want to do all the work themselves, so unless Orica-Greenedge or MTN-Qhubeka fancy helping, they'll quickly abandon the chase to save energy. Another factor is that all of those teams have GC riders who are performing well, and are looking to support those guys their full squad in the coming stages.
So it looks like a breakaway are going to be the likely winners, and in particular, it will suit the really strong breakaway rider, probably a puncheur. The initial climb will likely be the main staging point for the break to go, so it is important to be a good climber there, as well as having to deal with all the mountainous terrain in the parcours. The finale is also one for the punchy riders with the short climb ended with only 1 kilometre to go, and that climb is likely to be key to deciding the winner from the break.
The Contenders
Of course the method of picking breakaway winners is as difficult as contemplating rocket aerodynamics whilst having your toes stood upon by a rhino, but we shall nonetheless attempt it here. Actually I think it might be a bit easier today, with some very strong riders having shown their cards already this race.
Jose Goncalves has been up for a win this entire race, and hasn't been shy to attack out of the peleton when he has thought he has a chance. He wasn't far off winning Stage 4 with such a move, and he made the massive 40-man group that went away in Stage 10, so he is clearly looking for the right escape to join. He is a very able climber with a decent sprint, and he appears to be very motivated for a stage just like this one.
Cyril Gautier looks in a belligerent mood at the moment, he has been looking for opportunities day after day to take advantage at the end of hilly days to slip away. He has timed these moves a bit poorly, and the peleton has chased him down each time, but he has got decent gap on each occasion, so he's clearly in good form. It's been a while since he last took a win, but he has been perilously close at times, and I would keep a beady eye on the combatitive Frenchman if he makes the break.
Simon Gerrans has been very quiet this race, but this looks like a very nice stage for the Australian. It has been hard to gauge his form so far, as he hasn't really done much beyond his domestique duties for Chaves, but he will want to push himself at some stage so he has some idea of his form for the Worlds. He has experience winning from breakaways, having taken a stage of the Vuelta and the Giro from escapes in the past. He will certainly be the fastest if it comes down to a sprint, but his form is an unknown so he is hard to support.
Julien Simon is a good climber and a good sprinter, but doesn't really do either well enough to win stages from the main pack. From a break, his odds will be greatly enhanced, and he will be one of the favourites if he can make the move. He has taken two 7ths this race, and the fact that he is consistently making the finishes and feeling good enough to sprint shows that he is in pretty good form, even if he doesn't have the top-end speed of others. Cofidis will be looking to salvage their race after Bouhanni's unfortunate injury and the break looks like their best chance.
Etixx-Quickstep will be looking to get someone in the breaks on these types of stages, as they don't really have the riders to win in other situations. Niki Terpstra or Maxime Bouet seem the likely candidates for this parcours, but Bouet was in the break yesterday, and will probabaly be quite tired. Terpstra isn't perfectly suited to the climbs here, he'd prefer them short and steep to longer and easy. He has a pretty good sprint in a punchy finish, so if he can arrive at the finish with good legs, he will be hard to beat.
Of course the method of picking breakaway winners is as difficult as contemplating rocket aerodynamics whilst having your toes stood upon by a rhino, but we shall nonetheless attempt it here. Actually I think it might be a bit easier today, with some very strong riders having shown their cards already this race.
Jose Goncalves has been up for a win this entire race, and hasn't been shy to attack out of the peleton when he has thought he has a chance. He wasn't far off winning Stage 4 with such a move, and he made the massive 40-man group that went away in Stage 10, so he is clearly looking for the right escape to join. He is a very able climber with a decent sprint, and he appears to be very motivated for a stage just like this one.
Cyril Gautier looks in a belligerent mood at the moment, he has been looking for opportunities day after day to take advantage at the end of hilly days to slip away. He has timed these moves a bit poorly, and the peleton has chased him down each time, but he has got decent gap on each occasion, so he's clearly in good form. It's been a while since he last took a win, but he has been perilously close at times, and I would keep a beady eye on the combatitive Frenchman if he makes the break.
Simon Gerrans has been very quiet this race, but this looks like a very nice stage for the Australian. It has been hard to gauge his form so far, as he hasn't really done much beyond his domestique duties for Chaves, but he will want to push himself at some stage so he has some idea of his form for the Worlds. He has experience winning from breakaways, having taken a stage of the Vuelta and the Giro from escapes in the past. He will certainly be the fastest if it comes down to a sprint, but his form is an unknown so he is hard to support.
Julien Simon is a good climber and a good sprinter, but doesn't really do either well enough to win stages from the main pack. From a break, his odds will be greatly enhanced, and he will be one of the favourites if he can make the move. He has taken two 7ths this race, and the fact that he is consistently making the finishes and feeling good enough to sprint shows that he is in pretty good form, even if he doesn't have the top-end speed of others. Cofidis will be looking to salvage their race after Bouhanni's unfortunate injury and the break looks like their best chance.
Etixx-Quickstep will be looking to get someone in the breaks on these types of stages, as they don't really have the riders to win in other situations. Niki Terpstra or Maxime Bouet seem the likely candidates for this parcours, but Bouet was in the break yesterday, and will probabaly be quite tired. Terpstra isn't perfectly suited to the climbs here, he'd prefer them short and steep to longer and easy. He has a pretty good sprint in a punchy finish, so if he can arrive at the finish with good legs, he will be hard to beat.
The Verdict
Jose Goncalves seems like one of the strongest riders in the peleton over this sort of terrain, and Caja-Rural will be desperate to get him in the break here, so I think we could well see a win from the talented Portuguese rider.
Jose Goncalves seems like one of the strongest riders in the peleton over this sort of terrain, and Caja-Rural will be desperate to get him in the break here, so I think we could well see a win from the talented Portuguese rider.