The GC has taken shape after that brutal stage, with Aru emerging as the strongest climber on the day. He hasn't got a lock on the red jersey however, as he isn't the strongest time triallist and Dumoulin, Majka and maybe even Valverde will fancy their chances in overtaking the Astana rider.
The riders will be happy that there's only one categorised climb on this stage, and it will almost certainly end in a bunch sprint finish.
The riders will be happy that there's only one categorised climb on this stage, and it will almost certainly end in a bunch sprint finish.
The Course
The stage starts in Escalades-Engordany and journeys over 173 kilometres to Lleida in Catalonia. The stage starts downhill, and continues angling down until the foot of the only categorised climb of the day, the Coll de Boixolls (15.8 km, 5.1%). It is an inconsistent climb, with a few descents included, and gradients of 14% at times. Its summit comes with 119 kilometres to go however, and won't do anything more than sap the legs of the sprinters and allow the beak a bit more leeway. From there it is a gradual descent to the flat terrain, and an uncategorised ascent up the Alto de Fondlonga which looks like it is about 4 kilometres at 6%. You would think that climb would be categorised so maybe my guesstimation is wrong, or equally likely, the Vuelta organisers have stuffed up. They certainly did on Stage 9, that climb was nothing like the one in the racebook. Still, with 54 kilometres remaining, it is also unlikely to have an effect on the race outcome. The rest of the stage is flat, except for the final 600 metres which goes upwards at about 3%.
The weather should be similar to the previous stage, with a high of 25 Degrees and a high chance of rain. The wind won't be a factor, with only light winds predicted.
The stage starts in Escalades-Engordany and journeys over 173 kilometres to Lleida in Catalonia. The stage starts downhill, and continues angling down until the foot of the only categorised climb of the day, the Coll de Boixolls (15.8 km, 5.1%). It is an inconsistent climb, with a few descents included, and gradients of 14% at times. Its summit comes with 119 kilometres to go however, and won't do anything more than sap the legs of the sprinters and allow the beak a bit more leeway. From there it is a gradual descent to the flat terrain, and an uncategorised ascent up the Alto de Fondlonga which looks like it is about 4 kilometres at 6%. You would think that climb would be categorised so maybe my guesstimation is wrong, or equally likely, the Vuelta organisers have stuffed up. They certainly did on Stage 9, that climb was nothing like the one in the racebook. Still, with 54 kilometres remaining, it is also unlikely to have an effect on the race outcome. The rest of the stage is flat, except for the final 600 metres which goes upwards at about 3%.
The weather should be similar to the previous stage, with a high of 25 Degrees and a high chance of rain. The wind won't be a factor, with only light winds predicted.
The Tactics
This is perhaps the best stage for the sprinters (apart form the last one in Madrid), and they will be sure to make it count, as most of the teams with sprinters don't have a rider on GC. The exception is Giant-Alpecin with John Degenkolb and Tom Dumoulin, but their domestiques are pretty poor climbers for the most part, and there will still be plenty of firepower to chase down the break. In the break's favour is that it was a brutal stage on the previous day, and the riders would prefer it to be an easy day in the saddle where they just cruise in to the finish. Also Astana aren't going to care at all about the break, no rider that makes the break is going to be a threat to Aru's jersey.
I think a lot of teams are going to be motivated to bring it in for a sprint, with so many of the top-line of sprinters abandoning, and even the presence of John Degenkolb won't prevent them looking for the win.
This is perhaps the best stage for the sprinters (apart form the last one in Madrid), and they will be sure to make it count, as most of the teams with sprinters don't have a rider on GC. The exception is Giant-Alpecin with John Degenkolb and Tom Dumoulin, but their domestiques are pretty poor climbers for the most part, and there will still be plenty of firepower to chase down the break. In the break's favour is that it was a brutal stage on the previous day, and the riders would prefer it to be an easy day in the saddle where they just cruise in to the finish. Also Astana aren't going to care at all about the break, no rider that makes the break is going to be a threat to Aru's jersey.
I think a lot of teams are going to be motivated to bring it in for a sprint, with so many of the top-line of sprinters abandoning, and even the presence of John Degenkolb won't prevent them looking for the win.
The Contenders
John Degenkolb is perhaps the last elite sprinter present in the Vuelta, and he will be angry that he missed out on a win in Stage 10, where he was miles out of position and came late to take a close 2nd. He hasn't been on top form at this Vuelta, losing to Ewan in an uphill sprint, which is normally his bread and butter, and getting dropped on Stage 8, when riders with lesser climbing ability on paper hung in to contest the win. He still looks faster than the competition however, and he should have his leadout train intact for the final. He will be very hard for anyone to beat.
Danny Van Poppel hasn't done anything this race, despite saying that it was a big target for his season, and being in good form beforehand. He suffered from illness early in the race, probably the same one Cancellara had before he abandoned. He will be very motivated to change his fortunes, and this stage will be the easiest to reach the finish for the fast man. His leadout isn't comparable to Giant's, but he should be in decent position for the final.
Jean-Pierre Drucker will appreciate the lack of climbs in the last kilometres and he should be in for a good attempt at the sprint here. He has been just behind the best when he has attempted sprints in the Vuelta, finishing 4th twice, behind the top guys, but two of them are gone now, and he will fancy his chances at a win here. BMC haven't brought much in the way of a leadout, and Drucker will have do his own thing, but he positions himself well most of the time, and he should go well.
Tosh Van Der Sande is coming off some impressive performances last week, where he looked the winner at stages, before being overtaken just before the line. He is the nominated sprinter for Lotto-Soudal after Boeckmans' accident (good luck Kris), and will be motivated to take a big win in his burgeoning career. He isn't the fastest, and I think he'd prefer a hillier stage, but he will give it a shot, and shouldn't be too far off.
JJ Rojas has been sprinting in something close to his best form this Vuelta, and even managed 3rd in Stage 10, despite nursing an injury to his shoulder. He said afterward that his legs were in top form, but the rest of his body let him down, so the rest day will have been very welcome for him. If he has recovered he has the speed to beat most of the riders present. He handles positioning well, so not having a leadout is less of a problem for him than most riders and he will see this as an opportunity, if fit.
Kristian Sbaragli took a win last time out, and it could be the start of a great run for the Italian, who has been very consistent in the sprints this season. He clearly has good speed, but his leadout may be lacking a little lacking in a flat sprint like this stage, and if he is out of position he won't be fast enough to make up the difference.
Mitch Docker is probably the fastest man in Orica-Greenedge with Ewan gone, and he should be the protected man from the Australian team here. It's been a long time since he was the last man at the end of sprint train, he was 6th at Gent-Wevelgem in 2011, but he should have a shot at doing a good job with a good leadout from Orica.
Tom Van Asbroeck has been having a bad Vuelta, but this stage will be the best suited to him so far, with the climbing located far out from the finish. Earlier in the season he was finishing just behind the elite sprinters of the sport, so he clearly has the speed, it's just a matter of getting him in a position to unleash it. His team support isn't great here, but there's no reason that Van Asbroeck can't pull off an upset.
Murilo Fischer isn't a big name in cycling but I bumped into a Brazilian cycling fan the other day, and I mentioned Fischer's name, as the only one I could think of off the top of my head, and it created an instant bond between us, allowing me to discuss my favourite sport in a social circumstance where I'd normally be confined to small talk. So thank you Murilo Fischer. Realistically, he'll probably be supporting Lorrenzo Manzin, a young French sprinter, but Fischer used to be quick in his day, and if he can wind back the clock he can give this stage a run for its money.
John Degenkolb is perhaps the last elite sprinter present in the Vuelta, and he will be angry that he missed out on a win in Stage 10, where he was miles out of position and came late to take a close 2nd. He hasn't been on top form at this Vuelta, losing to Ewan in an uphill sprint, which is normally his bread and butter, and getting dropped on Stage 8, when riders with lesser climbing ability on paper hung in to contest the win. He still looks faster than the competition however, and he should have his leadout train intact for the final. He will be very hard for anyone to beat.
Danny Van Poppel hasn't done anything this race, despite saying that it was a big target for his season, and being in good form beforehand. He suffered from illness early in the race, probably the same one Cancellara had before he abandoned. He will be very motivated to change his fortunes, and this stage will be the easiest to reach the finish for the fast man. His leadout isn't comparable to Giant's, but he should be in decent position for the final.
Jean-Pierre Drucker will appreciate the lack of climbs in the last kilometres and he should be in for a good attempt at the sprint here. He has been just behind the best when he has attempted sprints in the Vuelta, finishing 4th twice, behind the top guys, but two of them are gone now, and he will fancy his chances at a win here. BMC haven't brought much in the way of a leadout, and Drucker will have do his own thing, but he positions himself well most of the time, and he should go well.
Tosh Van Der Sande is coming off some impressive performances last week, where he looked the winner at stages, before being overtaken just before the line. He is the nominated sprinter for Lotto-Soudal after Boeckmans' accident (good luck Kris), and will be motivated to take a big win in his burgeoning career. He isn't the fastest, and I think he'd prefer a hillier stage, but he will give it a shot, and shouldn't be too far off.
JJ Rojas has been sprinting in something close to his best form this Vuelta, and even managed 3rd in Stage 10, despite nursing an injury to his shoulder. He said afterward that his legs were in top form, but the rest of his body let him down, so the rest day will have been very welcome for him. If he has recovered he has the speed to beat most of the riders present. He handles positioning well, so not having a leadout is less of a problem for him than most riders and he will see this as an opportunity, if fit.
Kristian Sbaragli took a win last time out, and it could be the start of a great run for the Italian, who has been very consistent in the sprints this season. He clearly has good speed, but his leadout may be lacking a little lacking in a flat sprint like this stage, and if he is out of position he won't be fast enough to make up the difference.
Mitch Docker is probably the fastest man in Orica-Greenedge with Ewan gone, and he should be the protected man from the Australian team here. It's been a long time since he was the last man at the end of sprint train, he was 6th at Gent-Wevelgem in 2011, but he should have a shot at doing a good job with a good leadout from Orica.
Tom Van Asbroeck has been having a bad Vuelta, but this stage will be the best suited to him so far, with the climbing located far out from the finish. Earlier in the season he was finishing just behind the elite sprinters of the sport, so he clearly has the speed, it's just a matter of getting him in a position to unleash it. His team support isn't great here, but there's no reason that Van Asbroeck can't pull off an upset.
Murilo Fischer isn't a big name in cycling but I bumped into a Brazilian cycling fan the other day, and I mentioned Fischer's name, as the only one I could think of off the top of my head, and it created an instant bond between us, allowing me to discuss my favourite sport in a social circumstance where I'd normally be confined to small talk. So thank you Murilo Fischer. Realistically, he'll probably be supporting Lorrenzo Manzin, a young French sprinter, but Fischer used to be quick in his day, and if he can wind back the clock he can give this stage a run for its money.
The Verdict
Ok, this is the third time I've picked Degenkolb, surely he can't just miss out again?
Ok, this is the third time I've picked Degenkolb, surely he can't just miss out again?