The rest day was a welcome respite for the riders, and they will especially glad, as a monster of a stage awaits them today in Andorra. A sadistic set of back to back very steep climbs, it will be a battle for most to make the time cut, and could well be one of the most decisive days for the GC.
The Course
Vuelta organisers went to Joaquim Rodriguez and asked him to design a stage for the race, and he came up with what he describes as the "hardest stage of a Grand Tour that I've ridden". It certainly looks to be a contender for the title, with 6 climbs back to back and not a single flat section of road for 138 kilometres. The shorter stages are normally much more attacking as well, with riders feeling like attacking from further out is more viable with less accumulated fatigue from a lot of riding previously.
The first climb begins after just 3.2 kilometres, the Collda de Beixallis (6.5 km, 8.7%), and from the top it is a fast descent into the valley, with a few uphill kilometres before the start of the next climb, the Coll d'Ordino (9.9 km, 7.1%) and the gradual descent from the summit takes 26 kilometres and will probably be the easiest section of the race for the peleton. The next climb is the Coll de la Rabassa (13.8 km, 6.7%) which is the easiest climb in the race in terms of gradient, but it varies in difficulty and is hardest at the foot of the ascent. 66 kilometres remain from the summit, and it is roughly the half way point of the race. The riders then descend quickly down, straight into the Collada de la Gallina (11.7 km, 8.6%) which is an unrelenting climb, very consistently averaging 7-9% throughout, allowing no scope for recovery. The descent from the summit begins with 39 kilometres remaining and leads to the valley floor, where there are a few kilometres of false flat before the only category 2 climb of the day, the Alto de la Cornella (4.5 km, 9.5%), but it is by no means easy, with the highest average gradient of the day, and it is only its relatively short length that gives it its lesser rating. Shorter climbs mean shorter descents and less time to recover, and riders won't have long before they are climbing again, as they head uphill to the sprint point of the stage, which comes just before the start of the final climb. The Alto Ells Cortals d'Encamp (8.7 km, 9.2%) is hardest at the bottom, with the first four kilometres averaging a very nasty 10.7%. It levels out slightly towards the top, but gradients of 7-8% are still hard, especially after all the climbing that has been done already by this point.
The weather will be a pleasant 20 Degrees, but rain is likely, which make the descents tricky and increase the attrition amongst the riders.
Vuelta organisers went to Joaquim Rodriguez and asked him to design a stage for the race, and he came up with what he describes as the "hardest stage of a Grand Tour that I've ridden". It certainly looks to be a contender for the title, with 6 climbs back to back and not a single flat section of road for 138 kilometres. The shorter stages are normally much more attacking as well, with riders feeling like attacking from further out is more viable with less accumulated fatigue from a lot of riding previously.
The first climb begins after just 3.2 kilometres, the Collda de Beixallis (6.5 km, 8.7%), and from the top it is a fast descent into the valley, with a few uphill kilometres before the start of the next climb, the Coll d'Ordino (9.9 km, 7.1%) and the gradual descent from the summit takes 26 kilometres and will probably be the easiest section of the race for the peleton. The next climb is the Coll de la Rabassa (13.8 km, 6.7%) which is the easiest climb in the race in terms of gradient, but it varies in difficulty and is hardest at the foot of the ascent. 66 kilometres remain from the summit, and it is roughly the half way point of the race. The riders then descend quickly down, straight into the Collada de la Gallina (11.7 km, 8.6%) which is an unrelenting climb, very consistently averaging 7-9% throughout, allowing no scope for recovery. The descent from the summit begins with 39 kilometres remaining and leads to the valley floor, where there are a few kilometres of false flat before the only category 2 climb of the day, the Alto de la Cornella (4.5 km, 9.5%), but it is by no means easy, with the highest average gradient of the day, and it is only its relatively short length that gives it its lesser rating. Shorter climbs mean shorter descents and less time to recover, and riders won't have long before they are climbing again, as they head uphill to the sprint point of the stage, which comes just before the start of the final climb. The Alto Ells Cortals d'Encamp (8.7 km, 9.2%) is hardest at the bottom, with the first four kilometres averaging a very nasty 10.7%. It levels out slightly towards the top, but gradients of 7-8% are still hard, especially after all the climbing that has been done already by this point.
The weather will be a pleasant 20 Degrees, but rain is likely, which make the descents tricky and increase the attrition amongst the riders.
The Tactics
The first big mountain stage of the race often sets the tone for the rest of the race, so it will be interesting to see how the main teams approach it. The first climb comes early, so it will almost definitely be the scene of the breakaway's escape. The major teams will try and get a climber in there that can support their team leader later in the race, or go for the win themselves if the circumstances allow. If one of the teams misses out, they often take up the chasing to try and bring it back to put a rider in there, or to nullify the effectiveness of the move by keeping it close. Alternatively, none of the major teams are present, and a low power break with the obligatory Caja-Rural rider goes and is kept in check by Giant-Alpecin, who are riding for the red jersey.
But I think we will see a different tack taken here. In these really hard stages, there is often a different approach taken to them, with the multiple hard, early climbs providing an opportunity for a few strong teams to really drive the pace to isolate the other leaders. This can lead to massive time gaps at the end of the day, and it can be a great tactic for the really strong teams, as they will have 4-5 riders to others 1-2, giving them a significant advantage in controlling the race and launching race winning moves. I think this will be the approach of teams like Sky and Movistar who could really isolate a lot of the other contenders like Majka, Pozzovivo, Chaves and Dumoulin, whose teams don't really have much in the way of climbing support.
From there, they will have the option of attacking with a lesser rider, who then supports a later attack by his team leader, or they drive the pace in the hope of dropping some of the other leaders, which will result in them losing big time, as they won't have any support to help them get back or limit the damage. There's also the old one-two punch option as well, for the teams with multiple GC threats where one attacks, the other GC riders have to waste energy to chase him down then the other GC rider attacks once he is caught. That tactic was often employed by Quintana and Valverde in the Tour de France, and it would be no surprise to see them doing the same thing here. Sky actually have 4 riders in good position on the GC, and it would be no surprise to see Nieve or Henao go on the attack from a long way out in the hope of gaining a lot of time, or failing that, putting their team in an advantageous tactical position.
The first big mountain stage of the race often sets the tone for the rest of the race, so it will be interesting to see how the main teams approach it. The first climb comes early, so it will almost definitely be the scene of the breakaway's escape. The major teams will try and get a climber in there that can support their team leader later in the race, or go for the win themselves if the circumstances allow. If one of the teams misses out, they often take up the chasing to try and bring it back to put a rider in there, or to nullify the effectiveness of the move by keeping it close. Alternatively, none of the major teams are present, and a low power break with the obligatory Caja-Rural rider goes and is kept in check by Giant-Alpecin, who are riding for the red jersey.
But I think we will see a different tack taken here. In these really hard stages, there is often a different approach taken to them, with the multiple hard, early climbs providing an opportunity for a few strong teams to really drive the pace to isolate the other leaders. This can lead to massive time gaps at the end of the day, and it can be a great tactic for the really strong teams, as they will have 4-5 riders to others 1-2, giving them a significant advantage in controlling the race and launching race winning moves. I think this will be the approach of teams like Sky and Movistar who could really isolate a lot of the other contenders like Majka, Pozzovivo, Chaves and Dumoulin, whose teams don't really have much in the way of climbing support.
From there, they will have the option of attacking with a lesser rider, who then supports a later attack by his team leader, or they drive the pace in the hope of dropping some of the other leaders, which will result in them losing big time, as they won't have any support to help them get back or limit the damage. There's also the old one-two punch option as well, for the teams with multiple GC threats where one attacks, the other GC riders have to waste energy to chase him down then the other GC rider attacks once he is caught. That tactic was often employed by Quintana and Valverde in the Tour de France, and it would be no surprise to see them doing the same thing here. Sky actually have 4 riders in good position on the GC, and it would be no surprise to see Nieve or Henao go on the attack from a long way out in the hope of gaining a lot of time, or failing that, putting their team in an advantageous tactical position.
The Contenders
It looks like it is going to be a real survival of thee fittest style test here, with only the strongest climbers in with a shot at the win. If it is raced fast in the peleton from early one, then that might open the door for an opportunist to take a win with a long range attack, as there won't be as many domestiques around to do the chasing.
Chris Froome reminded everyone who won the Tour de France by powering away in the final kilometre on Stage 9, dropping everyone except Rodriguez, and quickly catching Dumoulin. He surged again and dropped the Spaniard, but Dumoulin wasn't finished and came over the top of Froome to win. That was on terrain which was thought no to suit Froome as much, but he judged his effort well, and showed that he has good legs at the moment. This stage will be the big test of his form however, and if he is missing even a few percent from his efforts at the Tour, he will be found out on this tough course. He has a very strong team, but it is unclear who the leader is at the moment, with 4 riders within striking distance on GC. He will prefer this terrain to what he faced previously, the longer climbs have always been where he has excelled in the past.
Mikel Nieve is another from Sky who will relish the fact that the course is now on the mountains rather than the steep hills. The Spaniard has never been one for the punchy climbs, but he loves the mountains, and he could be in for a good ride today. He is only 2'12 down on GC at the moment, and he has defended his GC position well on courses tha haven't suited so all signs suggest that he has good legs which he can showcase here. I doubt that he has the ability to go with the best if it comes down to the last climb, but he could be in a position where he can attack from afar and take advantage of team tactics to take a win.
Joaquim Rodriguez designed this stage, so he thinks that he will be able to take advantage of all the climbing to help him take a win. He loves the steep slopes and will be very much at home here. He has probably concocted the hardest stage he can imagine to counteract the importance of the later time trial, as he recognises that he won't win a race in which the TT is the decisive stage. His form is good but not great, as if he was in top form, he would have won a stage or two already. He was dropped by Froome on a climb that should be his bread and butter, and even out-ridden by Dumoulin, though Dumoulin's ability uphill is being recalculated with each performance. He doesn't have a powerhouse team, but Dani Moreno is riding well and should provide good support for his countryman. Rodriguez has shown in this race that he isn't afraid to attack, and the bottom of the final climb looks like a perfect launching pad for 'Purito'.
Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde will re-ignite their one-two punch for this stage, and will have a strong team in support to help them do so, Both have been climbing well this race and sit in handy positions on the GC at the moment. Valverde has been in difficulty after a Stage 8 crash, which effected his Stage 9 performance, but he still finished 7th, and the rest day will have given him some time to recover. Quintana was 6th on that stage, on terrain that was probably a bit too punchy for the diminuitive Colombian, which says that his form is good. He will love these steep, long climbs and he will cope better than most with the accumulation of a lot of climbing on the day. He hasn't looked as formidable as he did in the Tour, but it is worth noting that he didn't come into his own until the third week there, and he will have been similarly improving here. He gave an interview on the rest day, stating that he didn't really know where his body was at, and not sure how it would respond to the rest day. That isn't the best signal, and I'm not sure that he's the one to beat.
Rafal Majka wasn't happy with his first 10 days of racing, which is perhaps a bit surprising, as he is sitting relatively high on the GC, and as he is more of a pure climber and not suited to the punchy finishes he should be expected to improve in the mountains. His disappointment probably stems from his frustration that his form hasn't translated into results as of yet, but he'll get his best chance here, with real testing climbs for him to sink his teeth into. He is one of the few to specifically set himself for this race the entire season, and whilst the other rider's form is up in the air, he will come in confident that can rely on himself to deliver when it gets hard. At his best, he is one of the top climbers in the world, and I expect him to show that here. What may catch him out is the lack of team support, with the inexperienced Jesper Hansen as his main support man for the mountains. If he gets isolated that will make it hard for him to win.
Domenico Pozzovivo is in the same boat as Majka when it comes to team support. He is a little better off, with Cherel, Kadri and Nocentini all able to help in the mountains, however they haven't shown any form to date, especially Kadri and Nocentini, who have finished well down the pack on every stage. His other signs are positive though, he defended his position well over terrain to which he is unsuited, and his form appears to be increasing steadily over the first 10 stages. He also has a lot less fatigue in his legs as he crashed out of the Giro relatively early on, and so won't be worried about his fitness at this stage of the race. He is very light, and is a true power to weight ration style climber and he'll appreciate the steep, long climbs on offer. He won't be as tightly marked as some of the other contenders, and may be allowed to ride away, if the others can't decide who has the responsibility to do the chasing.
Esteban Chaves is in the form of his life, and but for the last 700 metres of Stage 9 he would still be in red and plotting an unlikely Grand Tour win. He appeared to be the strongest of the climbers in the first week, but he is a bit of an unknown when it comes to backing up, day after day at a Grand Tour, and this will be the hardest stage that he has ever had to do. On paper it looks like a great stage for the tiny Colombian, the steeper the climb the better for him, as he would have to be one of the lightest riders in the peleton, and his power-weight ratio must also be one of the best as well, which will stand him in good stead here. Whether he has the endurance to deal with the ridiculous amount of climbing is yet to be answered, as is his recovery after the hard first 10 stages, but he is a classy rider, and he looks like he will cope well. The rain won't help him, as he has been advantaged by the hot conditions so far. I'm not sure I can see him winning this stage, especially seeing he will be isolated once the race starts going hard, as his climbing support is very thin.
Louis Meintjes is currently sitting 12th and is looking surprisingly strong for a young rider backing up from the Tour de France. He has been happy with his performance so far and has said that he'll try and stay up in the GC and target one stage for a win. He'll probably pick an easier stage as his target, where he can get in a break or get set up by his team for a long range attack. He's one to keep an eye on today, but again, he will suffer from a lack of team support, maybe Berhane and Cummings can keep up, but that has yet to be seen.
It looks like it is going to be a real survival of thee fittest style test here, with only the strongest climbers in with a shot at the win. If it is raced fast in the peleton from early one, then that might open the door for an opportunist to take a win with a long range attack, as there won't be as many domestiques around to do the chasing.
Chris Froome reminded everyone who won the Tour de France by powering away in the final kilometre on Stage 9, dropping everyone except Rodriguez, and quickly catching Dumoulin. He surged again and dropped the Spaniard, but Dumoulin wasn't finished and came over the top of Froome to win. That was on terrain which was thought no to suit Froome as much, but he judged his effort well, and showed that he has good legs at the moment. This stage will be the big test of his form however, and if he is missing even a few percent from his efforts at the Tour, he will be found out on this tough course. He has a very strong team, but it is unclear who the leader is at the moment, with 4 riders within striking distance on GC. He will prefer this terrain to what he faced previously, the longer climbs have always been where he has excelled in the past.
Mikel Nieve is another from Sky who will relish the fact that the course is now on the mountains rather than the steep hills. The Spaniard has never been one for the punchy climbs, but he loves the mountains, and he could be in for a good ride today. He is only 2'12 down on GC at the moment, and he has defended his GC position well on courses tha haven't suited so all signs suggest that he has good legs which he can showcase here. I doubt that he has the ability to go with the best if it comes down to the last climb, but he could be in a position where he can attack from afar and take advantage of team tactics to take a win.
Joaquim Rodriguez designed this stage, so he thinks that he will be able to take advantage of all the climbing to help him take a win. He loves the steep slopes and will be very much at home here. He has probably concocted the hardest stage he can imagine to counteract the importance of the later time trial, as he recognises that he won't win a race in which the TT is the decisive stage. His form is good but not great, as if he was in top form, he would have won a stage or two already. He was dropped by Froome on a climb that should be his bread and butter, and even out-ridden by Dumoulin, though Dumoulin's ability uphill is being recalculated with each performance. He doesn't have a powerhouse team, but Dani Moreno is riding well and should provide good support for his countryman. Rodriguez has shown in this race that he isn't afraid to attack, and the bottom of the final climb looks like a perfect launching pad for 'Purito'.
Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde will re-ignite their one-two punch for this stage, and will have a strong team in support to help them do so, Both have been climbing well this race and sit in handy positions on the GC at the moment. Valverde has been in difficulty after a Stage 8 crash, which effected his Stage 9 performance, but he still finished 7th, and the rest day will have given him some time to recover. Quintana was 6th on that stage, on terrain that was probably a bit too punchy for the diminuitive Colombian, which says that his form is good. He will love these steep, long climbs and he will cope better than most with the accumulation of a lot of climbing on the day. He hasn't looked as formidable as he did in the Tour, but it is worth noting that he didn't come into his own until the third week there, and he will have been similarly improving here. He gave an interview on the rest day, stating that he didn't really know where his body was at, and not sure how it would respond to the rest day. That isn't the best signal, and I'm not sure that he's the one to beat.
Rafal Majka wasn't happy with his first 10 days of racing, which is perhaps a bit surprising, as he is sitting relatively high on the GC, and as he is more of a pure climber and not suited to the punchy finishes he should be expected to improve in the mountains. His disappointment probably stems from his frustration that his form hasn't translated into results as of yet, but he'll get his best chance here, with real testing climbs for him to sink his teeth into. He is one of the few to specifically set himself for this race the entire season, and whilst the other rider's form is up in the air, he will come in confident that can rely on himself to deliver when it gets hard. At his best, he is one of the top climbers in the world, and I expect him to show that here. What may catch him out is the lack of team support, with the inexperienced Jesper Hansen as his main support man for the mountains. If he gets isolated that will make it hard for him to win.
Domenico Pozzovivo is in the same boat as Majka when it comes to team support. He is a little better off, with Cherel, Kadri and Nocentini all able to help in the mountains, however they haven't shown any form to date, especially Kadri and Nocentini, who have finished well down the pack on every stage. His other signs are positive though, he defended his position well over terrain to which he is unsuited, and his form appears to be increasing steadily over the first 10 stages. He also has a lot less fatigue in his legs as he crashed out of the Giro relatively early on, and so won't be worried about his fitness at this stage of the race. He is very light, and is a true power to weight ration style climber and he'll appreciate the steep, long climbs on offer. He won't be as tightly marked as some of the other contenders, and may be allowed to ride away, if the others can't decide who has the responsibility to do the chasing.
Esteban Chaves is in the form of his life, and but for the last 700 metres of Stage 9 he would still be in red and plotting an unlikely Grand Tour win. He appeared to be the strongest of the climbers in the first week, but he is a bit of an unknown when it comes to backing up, day after day at a Grand Tour, and this will be the hardest stage that he has ever had to do. On paper it looks like a great stage for the tiny Colombian, the steeper the climb the better for him, as he would have to be one of the lightest riders in the peleton, and his power-weight ratio must also be one of the best as well, which will stand him in good stead here. Whether he has the endurance to deal with the ridiculous amount of climbing is yet to be answered, as is his recovery after the hard first 10 stages, but he is a classy rider, and he looks like he will cope well. The rain won't help him, as he has been advantaged by the hot conditions so far. I'm not sure I can see him winning this stage, especially seeing he will be isolated once the race starts going hard, as his climbing support is very thin.
Louis Meintjes is currently sitting 12th and is looking surprisingly strong for a young rider backing up from the Tour de France. He has been happy with his performance so far and has said that he'll try and stay up in the GC and target one stage for a win. He'll probably pick an easier stage as his target, where he can get in a break or get set up by his team for a long range attack. He's one to keep an eye on today, but again, he will suffer from a lack of team support, maybe Berhane and Cummings can keep up, but that has yet to be seen.
The Verdict
I think Rafal Majka has looked very strong so far, and he is just waiting for a stage like this to impose himself upon this race. He won't have much support, but if he is in contention on the final climb, he looks to have the condition to win.
I think Rafal Majka has looked very strong so far, and he is just waiting for a stage like this to impose himself upon this race. He won't have much support, but if he is in contention on the final climb, he looks to have the condition to win.