A new leader for La Vuelta and he claimed it in style with a dramatic victory for Tom Dumoulin over two superstars of the climbs in Chris Froome and Joaquim Rodriguez. He is developing into a superstar himself, combining his already formidable time trialling ability with powerful climbing legs, he will be a force to watch out for on any race.
Stage 10 is the last one before the rest day, and is likely one for the sprinters that can handle a climb, although a good attack could steal the race as well.
Stage 10 is the last one before the rest day, and is likely one for the sprinters that can handle a climb, although a good attack could steal the race as well.
The Course
A relatively flat and sedate day, at least compared to the more recent stages, as the peleton continues its journey up the east coast towards the Pyrenees. At just 146.6 kilometres it is one of the shorter stages of the Vuelta, and the climbing challenges aren't the steep ones that have been on offer to date.
Racing begins on the flat, and then there is a gradual ascent to the base of the first categorised climb, the Puerto del Oronet (6 km, 4.4%). The descent leads to a rolling section, gradually ascending but not overly difficult and then it is flat into Castellon, where the riders begin a 46 kilometre circuit which will eventually return them to finish in Castellon. The sprint point comes with 25 kilometres remaining, and then it is immediately into the major test of the day the Alto del Desierto de la Palmas (7.5 km, 5.3%). The riders have been up much harder climbs, and it shouldn't shed too many riders, rather it is mostly a lauchpad for the attackers. The descent from the summit is gradual, and the final 8 kilometres are completely flat.
The weather is (no surprise) hot, at a predicted 31 Degrees, and recovery will be just as important as ability for the riders at this stage of the race, with all the hot weather that the riders have had to bear so far. A light wind will be a cross-headwind for most of the day's proceedings, but is unlikely to figure in the race, as it won't get above 10 km/hr.
A relatively flat and sedate day, at least compared to the more recent stages, as the peleton continues its journey up the east coast towards the Pyrenees. At just 146.6 kilometres it is one of the shorter stages of the Vuelta, and the climbing challenges aren't the steep ones that have been on offer to date.
Racing begins on the flat, and then there is a gradual ascent to the base of the first categorised climb, the Puerto del Oronet (6 km, 4.4%). The descent leads to a rolling section, gradually ascending but not overly difficult and then it is flat into Castellon, where the riders begin a 46 kilometre circuit which will eventually return them to finish in Castellon. The sprint point comes with 25 kilometres remaining, and then it is immediately into the major test of the day the Alto del Desierto de la Palmas (7.5 km, 5.3%). The riders have been up much harder climbs, and it shouldn't shed too many riders, rather it is mostly a lauchpad for the attackers. The descent from the summit is gradual, and the final 8 kilometres are completely flat.
The weather is (no surprise) hot, at a predicted 31 Degrees, and recovery will be just as important as ability for the riders at this stage of the race, with all the hot weather that the riders have had to bear so far. A light wind will be a cross-headwind for most of the day's proceedings, but is unlikely to figure in the race, as it won't get above 10 km/hr.
The Tactics
The sprinters' teams know that there aren't so many easy opportunities left for their men to win, and so they should be keen to control the stage. One wrinkle is that Tom Dumoulin has the leader's jersey and is riding very well for Giant-Alpecin, and that might mean that they'll be more keen to save their energy to support him in the coming stages, rather than their sprint star Degenkolb. I think this unlikely however, as Giant-Alpecin is loaded with riders who aren't great in the mountains and will be more productively employed working to bring back the break here. Another problem is the fact that Peter Sagan has abandoned the race, and Tinkoff-Saxo won't lend their hand to the chase in his absence. However, I believe that many teams will be happy to step in and make-up the shortfall, as their riders will have a better chance of winning in the Slovakian's absence.
The break normally fancies its chances on a shorter stage, as there is less time that they have to spend slogging away on the open road, whilst the peleton waits for them to fatigue. The cross-headwind won't help their ambitions though, and I think there will be plenty of motivation for the sprint teams to reel the escapees back in. If a big enough group gets away however, maybe over the first climb then it might be too much for the sprint teams to handle.
The other threat to a sprint finish is potential attacks over the final climb. On Stage 8 there were a flurry of moves, sparked off by the GC riders, albeit shut down quickly. Then came counter moves, attacks on the descent and even on the flat run-in to the finish line. This final climb is quite a bit easier however, and the attacks will be a lot easier to control. It would take a fairly large group of determined riders to attack and keep the peleton at bay and cooperation is scarce at the end of the race with riders searching for the win so I think it very likely that the race will end in a bunch sprint.
The sprinters' teams know that there aren't so many easy opportunities left for their men to win, and so they should be keen to control the stage. One wrinkle is that Tom Dumoulin has the leader's jersey and is riding very well for Giant-Alpecin, and that might mean that they'll be more keen to save their energy to support him in the coming stages, rather than their sprint star Degenkolb. I think this unlikely however, as Giant-Alpecin is loaded with riders who aren't great in the mountains and will be more productively employed working to bring back the break here. Another problem is the fact that Peter Sagan has abandoned the race, and Tinkoff-Saxo won't lend their hand to the chase in his absence. However, I believe that many teams will be happy to step in and make-up the shortfall, as their riders will have a better chance of winning in the Slovakian's absence.
The break normally fancies its chances on a shorter stage, as there is less time that they have to spend slogging away on the open road, whilst the peleton waits for them to fatigue. The cross-headwind won't help their ambitions though, and I think there will be plenty of motivation for the sprint teams to reel the escapees back in. If a big enough group gets away however, maybe over the first climb then it might be too much for the sprint teams to handle.
The other threat to a sprint finish is potential attacks over the final climb. On Stage 8 there were a flurry of moves, sparked off by the GC riders, albeit shut down quickly. Then came counter moves, attacks on the descent and even on the flat run-in to the finish line. This final climb is quite a bit easier however, and the attacks will be a lot easier to control. It would take a fairly large group of determined riders to attack and keep the peleton at bay and cooperation is scarce at the end of the race with riders searching for the win so I think it very likely that the race will end in a bunch sprint.
The Contenders
From the sprinters it looks like with Bouhanni and Sagan out, that it will be plain sailing for John Degenkolb, but he showed on Stage 8 that he's not climbing as well as some of the others, and that may translate to him doing a tired sprint in the finale. Nonetheless, he goes in as the overwhelming favourite to win if it does come down to a bunch finish, as he's the fastest, and can normally handle climbs like the one before the finish with relative ease. His Giant-Alpecin team will be very motivated after the heroics of Dumoulin on the previous stage, and he will have the best leadout train in the race at his disposal.
Caleb Ewan took a superb win in Stage 5, but he has struggled when the peleton has gone uphill, which is unusual, as he is a good climber, with many considering him a classics rider in the making, after great performances on hilly U23 world titles course and his attacking display on the final hill of the Australian nationals. He is maybe struggling with the pace of the pro peleton in his first Grand Tour, and he'll probably be leaving the race fairly soon. He may have one last big effort left in him for this stage, and if he gets over the final climb close enough to the peleton, he will probably be the only who can rival Degenkolb for speed. His leadout will also rival the German's, with the Orica team loaded with riders who excel in this sort of terrain.
Danny Van Poppel will be looking to bounce back after illness hampered his chances earlier in the race, and he has said numerous times in interviews that he is really motivated to take his first Grand Tour win in this Vuelta. He has been in good form recently in the Eneco Tour, finishing 2nd behind a flying Viviani on one stage, but he hasn't had the opportunity to go for himself yet. Jasper Stuyven would normally be his leadout man, and he won a stage, so it's clear that given the normal run of things that Van Poppel would be right in contention in these fast finishes. He has reportedly recovered from his poor condition and will be raring to go here.
Kristan Sbaragli has been thereabouts this race, taking a number of top 10s and looking likely in the sprints, but that has been the story of his career thus far, potential without the breakthrough win. His results so far this race have been 6th, 6th and 5th, and he just needs to find that winning edge from somewhere. He can both climb and sprint solidly, but might need to look at his positioning in the finales, as he rarely finds himself near the spot where the winning sprint is launched.
Simon Gerrans might be up for the stage if Ewan doesn't make it to the finale, but it is difficult to judge where the Australian might be sitting with his form at the moment, as he hasn't raced for the win yet this Vuelta, doing duty for his young team leaders Ewan and Chaves. He would have got his chance on Stage 8, but he got caught up in the major crash, sustaining some nasty looking facial cuts and bruises, and it kept him out of the final bunch sprint. He could well get his chance here, and if he is returned to form he will fancy his chances, and sprinting after a climb is what he does best, most famously beating Sagan in a sprint in those circumstances in the Tour De France in 2013.
Jean-Pierre Drucker didn't make it over the final climb of Stage 8, but this is easier here, and although he isn't a renowned climber, he is very tough, and the shallower nature of the climbing may allow him to tough it out. He has a pair of 4th placings so far this race, but with two of the riders that finished ahead of him gone, he will fancy his chances of notching his maiden Grand Tour stage victory. He positions himself very well in the sprints, and whilst he isn't the absolute fastest man on wheels, he can sustain a sprint for a long way out from the line. That sort of power will serve him well here, especially if the majority of the leadout riders have been dropped on the final climb.
Jose Joaquin Rojas never performs when you expect him to, so the fact that I have included him here will probably ensure that he takes a day off. He is a superb climber, and often finishes higher up in mountains races than a sprinter has any right to be. He used to be regarded as a top-tier sprinter, and with his climbing ability, he was thought to be a contender for the green jersey in the Tour de France. Those days are long gone, but he still pops up to take the odd victory, like when he beat a star-studded field in Qatar earlier this season. That was his last win, but he has been more consistent this season, taking a lot of top 5 placings in early season races. His second half of the year has been less impressive and consistent, but he has looked a lot better at this Vuelta, taking 5th on the uphill sprint on Stage 5, and going on the attack in Stage 8, where he unfortunately crashed, and decided to set up Visconti for the sprint instead of going for himself. Here, he should get a chance to go again, I doubt that he can outsprint Degenkolb, but he will have the freshest legs of the fast men there, and can give a good account of himself.
From the sprinters it looks like with Bouhanni and Sagan out, that it will be plain sailing for John Degenkolb, but he showed on Stage 8 that he's not climbing as well as some of the others, and that may translate to him doing a tired sprint in the finale. Nonetheless, he goes in as the overwhelming favourite to win if it does come down to a bunch finish, as he's the fastest, and can normally handle climbs like the one before the finish with relative ease. His Giant-Alpecin team will be very motivated after the heroics of Dumoulin on the previous stage, and he will have the best leadout train in the race at his disposal.
Caleb Ewan took a superb win in Stage 5, but he has struggled when the peleton has gone uphill, which is unusual, as he is a good climber, with many considering him a classics rider in the making, after great performances on hilly U23 world titles course and his attacking display on the final hill of the Australian nationals. He is maybe struggling with the pace of the pro peleton in his first Grand Tour, and he'll probably be leaving the race fairly soon. He may have one last big effort left in him for this stage, and if he gets over the final climb close enough to the peleton, he will probably be the only who can rival Degenkolb for speed. His leadout will also rival the German's, with the Orica team loaded with riders who excel in this sort of terrain.
Danny Van Poppel will be looking to bounce back after illness hampered his chances earlier in the race, and he has said numerous times in interviews that he is really motivated to take his first Grand Tour win in this Vuelta. He has been in good form recently in the Eneco Tour, finishing 2nd behind a flying Viviani on one stage, but he hasn't had the opportunity to go for himself yet. Jasper Stuyven would normally be his leadout man, and he won a stage, so it's clear that given the normal run of things that Van Poppel would be right in contention in these fast finishes. He has reportedly recovered from his poor condition and will be raring to go here.
Kristan Sbaragli has been thereabouts this race, taking a number of top 10s and looking likely in the sprints, but that has been the story of his career thus far, potential without the breakthrough win. His results so far this race have been 6th, 6th and 5th, and he just needs to find that winning edge from somewhere. He can both climb and sprint solidly, but might need to look at his positioning in the finales, as he rarely finds himself near the spot where the winning sprint is launched.
Simon Gerrans might be up for the stage if Ewan doesn't make it to the finale, but it is difficult to judge where the Australian might be sitting with his form at the moment, as he hasn't raced for the win yet this Vuelta, doing duty for his young team leaders Ewan and Chaves. He would have got his chance on Stage 8, but he got caught up in the major crash, sustaining some nasty looking facial cuts and bruises, and it kept him out of the final bunch sprint. He could well get his chance here, and if he is returned to form he will fancy his chances, and sprinting after a climb is what he does best, most famously beating Sagan in a sprint in those circumstances in the Tour De France in 2013.
Jean-Pierre Drucker didn't make it over the final climb of Stage 8, but this is easier here, and although he isn't a renowned climber, he is very tough, and the shallower nature of the climbing may allow him to tough it out. He has a pair of 4th placings so far this race, but with two of the riders that finished ahead of him gone, he will fancy his chances of notching his maiden Grand Tour stage victory. He positions himself very well in the sprints, and whilst he isn't the absolute fastest man on wheels, he can sustain a sprint for a long way out from the line. That sort of power will serve him well here, especially if the majority of the leadout riders have been dropped on the final climb.
Jose Joaquin Rojas never performs when you expect him to, so the fact that I have included him here will probably ensure that he takes a day off. He is a superb climber, and often finishes higher up in mountains races than a sprinter has any right to be. He used to be regarded as a top-tier sprinter, and with his climbing ability, he was thought to be a contender for the green jersey in the Tour de France. Those days are long gone, but he still pops up to take the odd victory, like when he beat a star-studded field in Qatar earlier this season. That was his last win, but he has been more consistent this season, taking a lot of top 5 placings in early season races. His second half of the year has been less impressive and consistent, but he has looked a lot better at this Vuelta, taking 5th on the uphill sprint on Stage 5, and going on the attack in Stage 8, where he unfortunately crashed, and decided to set up Visconti for the sprint instead of going for himself. Here, he should get a chance to go again, I doubt that he can outsprint Degenkolb, but he will have the freshest legs of the fast men there, and can give a good account of himself.
The Verdict
Danny Van Poppel is back into decent condition and he might be sizing up a weakened Degenkolb and fancying his chances on this stage. A win for the ambitious youngster here.
Danny Van Poppel is back into decent condition and he might be sizing up a weakened Degenkolb and fancying his chances on this stage. A win for the ambitious youngster here.