It will be a different day for the riders here, with no climbs throughout the stage, but the finish will mean that the same riders are likely to be the main players. It's a frustrating day for the pure sprinters, with the whole day being flat, until the final 800 metres, which slope upward at 5% into the finish. It will be one for the climbier sprinters and perhaps even the sprintier climbers, but 5% isn't too hard when it's only for 800 metres.
The Course
The profile of today's stage is the flattest of the race, and it would be one for the pure sprinters, except for the little kick up to the finish line, which will shift it to the territory of the climby sprinters and the puncheurs. There shouldn't be many difficulties in the race apart from the hot weather and it would be a surprise if the peleton didn't arrive all together at the base of the uphill finish.
The weather will be a hot 32 Degrees and almost without a breath of wind, so another uncomfortable day in the saddle for the peleton.
The profile of today's stage is the flattest of the race, and it would be one for the pure sprinters, except for the little kick up to the finish line, which will shift it to the territory of the climby sprinters and the puncheurs. There shouldn't be many difficulties in the race apart from the hot weather and it would be a surprise if the peleton didn't arrive all together at the base of the uphill finish.
The weather will be a hot 32 Degrees and almost without a breath of wind, so another uncomfortable day in the saddle for the peleton.
The Tactics
The early break will go, and be chased down by the sprinters teams, whilst Orica-Greenedge do the policing initially to make sure the break's composition isn't too dangerous. Hot days don't make for adventurous attacks off the front seem too attractive, so I would be surprised if there are more than a handful of riders who try their luck on what should be an easily controlled stage. There is a sprint point near the finish, which may be contested by the GC candidates in competition for bonus seconds, or perhaps the sprinters, if they feel that they can take the points jersey.
The run in to the final uphill will be the crucial point of the stage today, so expect to see the leadouts set out to battle into the foot of the rise, and then last as long as possible to launch their favourite to the line. It will be important to judge the sprint carefully, and if the leadout trains run out of riders, then that may open up the door for a very late attack from a puncheur to steal the win.
The early break will go, and be chased down by the sprinters teams, whilst Orica-Greenedge do the policing initially to make sure the break's composition isn't too dangerous. Hot days don't make for adventurous attacks off the front seem too attractive, so I would be surprised if there are more than a handful of riders who try their luck on what should be an easily controlled stage. There is a sprint point near the finish, which may be contested by the GC candidates in competition for bonus seconds, or perhaps the sprinters, if they feel that they can take the points jersey.
The run in to the final uphill will be the crucial point of the stage today, so expect to see the leadouts set out to battle into the foot of the rise, and then last as long as possible to launch their favourite to the line. It will be important to judge the sprint carefully, and if the leadout trains run out of riders, then that may open up the door for a very late attack from a puncheur to steal the win.
The Contenders
Peter Sagan won fairly convincingly today, and Tinkoff-Saxo were confident enough in him that they were content to work throughout the day in support of him. This finish suits him even better, and he'll be looking to double his tally. His main problem will be that he doesn't have much of a leadout train, and he may be looked on to close down gaps by himself if he finds himself out of position. He is very good at positioning however, and the main problem may come if a puncheur attacks before the sprint and the onus is on Sagan to close it down. He's seems to be in good form though, and will be right up there on this terrain.
John Degenkolb was good today, but lacked a bit of speed in the flat finish despite having a good leadout. He is a lot stronger on the uphill finishes, and is regarded as one of the premier exponents of the uphill sprint. He won a succession of races on uphill kicks, and also finished ahead of Sagan on a similar finish in the Tour, but unfortunately for him an escapee took the win that day. That day was a lot harder than what he'll face here, and the last stage was probably a bit easy for the tough German who thrives when the going gets toughest. He would prefer a harder day's racing beforehand, but the uphill sprint is better for him, so he could reverse the result of the previous day.
Nacer Bouhanni went down in a crash, but that didn't slow him down, and he nearly came over the top of Sagan in the finale. The flat lead-in to the finish will be more to his liking than the prior stage, but whilst he has been known to stick on well over the climbs, maintaining a sprint uphill isn't really his forte. He will probably run a respectable finish, but I doubt that a win is on the cards.
Jasper Stuyven was Trek's sprinter of choice on the previous stage, and that will only be more true on the uphill finish next up. He is still young and hasn't taken a big win yet, but he has achieved several good results behind good sprinters, and he looks a talented rider. His team has a virus problem at the moment though, with Cancellara abandoning, and Van Poppel reportedly falling sick as well, so hopefully Stuyven can avoid catching it.
Carlos Barbero has never had much speed in a flat sprint, and was quite a way back on the last stage, finishing 12th. He specialises in the uphill finishes, and he is in good form at the moment, winning a stage in the Vuelta a Burgos and taking 2nd at the Spanish nationals. He has been pretty good this season and with the Vuelta Espana being the biggest race for Caja Rural, he will be in his best form here, which may allow him to take an upset win.
Caleb Ewan had a tough day in the saddle in the last stage, sitting up early and rolling in with the stragglers, but this stage will be a lot easier, at least until the finish. Perhaps he chose to save his energy once he realised that he didn't have the legs, but it doesn't say much positive about how he is feeling at the moment. This sort of explosive uphill sprint hasn't been something that he has shown himself at the top level, and it would be surprising if he could bounce back with a win straight away.
On the other hand, Simon Gerrans may be up for a go at the win here. He has looked really hungry in pre-race interviews, and whilst he didn't finish in the front group today, there was little point in him doing so after Chaves was safely inside the final 3 kilometres, from there it made more sense for Gerrans to sit up and save himself for this stage where he'll be a lot more suited. He hasn't raced since he crashed at the Tour though, so he won't be at peak form, but if he can get a little gap by attacking then he certainly has the ability to finish it off.
Lluis Guillermo Mas is another to watch from an attack before the sprint, he won in exactly the same fashion at the Tour of Turkey, where he was leading out Barbero, but was allowed to get a gap, and the chasing Mark Cavendish couldn't catch him before the line.
Kristian Sbaragli is a very consistent young rider who has achieved a lot of solid results in sprints without winning on the professional scene yet. The MTN-Qhubeka team has a lot of confidence in him however, and he looks to have the full backing of the squad in the sprint finishes. He is a pretty good climber as well, and shouldn't be out of place getting a decent placing again here, after his 6th on the previous stage.
Peter Sagan won fairly convincingly today, and Tinkoff-Saxo were confident enough in him that they were content to work throughout the day in support of him. This finish suits him even better, and he'll be looking to double his tally. His main problem will be that he doesn't have much of a leadout train, and he may be looked on to close down gaps by himself if he finds himself out of position. He is very good at positioning however, and the main problem may come if a puncheur attacks before the sprint and the onus is on Sagan to close it down. He's seems to be in good form though, and will be right up there on this terrain.
John Degenkolb was good today, but lacked a bit of speed in the flat finish despite having a good leadout. He is a lot stronger on the uphill finishes, and is regarded as one of the premier exponents of the uphill sprint. He won a succession of races on uphill kicks, and also finished ahead of Sagan on a similar finish in the Tour, but unfortunately for him an escapee took the win that day. That day was a lot harder than what he'll face here, and the last stage was probably a bit easy for the tough German who thrives when the going gets toughest. He would prefer a harder day's racing beforehand, but the uphill sprint is better for him, so he could reverse the result of the previous day.
Nacer Bouhanni went down in a crash, but that didn't slow him down, and he nearly came over the top of Sagan in the finale. The flat lead-in to the finish will be more to his liking than the prior stage, but whilst he has been known to stick on well over the climbs, maintaining a sprint uphill isn't really his forte. He will probably run a respectable finish, but I doubt that a win is on the cards.
Jasper Stuyven was Trek's sprinter of choice on the previous stage, and that will only be more true on the uphill finish next up. He is still young and hasn't taken a big win yet, but he has achieved several good results behind good sprinters, and he looks a talented rider. His team has a virus problem at the moment though, with Cancellara abandoning, and Van Poppel reportedly falling sick as well, so hopefully Stuyven can avoid catching it.
Carlos Barbero has never had much speed in a flat sprint, and was quite a way back on the last stage, finishing 12th. He specialises in the uphill finishes, and he is in good form at the moment, winning a stage in the Vuelta a Burgos and taking 2nd at the Spanish nationals. He has been pretty good this season and with the Vuelta Espana being the biggest race for Caja Rural, he will be in his best form here, which may allow him to take an upset win.
Caleb Ewan had a tough day in the saddle in the last stage, sitting up early and rolling in with the stragglers, but this stage will be a lot easier, at least until the finish. Perhaps he chose to save his energy once he realised that he didn't have the legs, but it doesn't say much positive about how he is feeling at the moment. This sort of explosive uphill sprint hasn't been something that he has shown himself at the top level, and it would be surprising if he could bounce back with a win straight away.
On the other hand, Simon Gerrans may be up for a go at the win here. He has looked really hungry in pre-race interviews, and whilst he didn't finish in the front group today, there was little point in him doing so after Chaves was safely inside the final 3 kilometres, from there it made more sense for Gerrans to sit up and save himself for this stage where he'll be a lot more suited. He hasn't raced since he crashed at the Tour though, so he won't be at peak form, but if he can get a little gap by attacking then he certainly has the ability to finish it off.
Lluis Guillermo Mas is another to watch from an attack before the sprint, he won in exactly the same fashion at the Tour of Turkey, where he was leading out Barbero, but was allowed to get a gap, and the chasing Mark Cavendish couldn't catch him before the line.
Kristian Sbaragli is a very consistent young rider who has achieved a lot of solid results in sprints without winning on the professional scene yet. The MTN-Qhubeka team has a lot of confidence in him however, and he looks to have the full backing of the squad in the sprint finishes. He is a pretty good climber as well, and shouldn't be out of place getting a decent placing again here, after his 6th on the previous stage.
The Verdict
John Degenkolb will a lot more at home sprinting uphill, and I think he'll win here, despite falling short last time out.
John Degenkolb will a lot more at home sprinting uphill, and I think he'll win here, despite falling short last time out.