The Vuelta a Murcia is a once proud race that was the early season tune-up of choice for the grand tour contenders, but these days it isn't even a stage race, having shrunk from 3 stages to 2 stages to 1 stage, which has been the case for the past three years. The grand tour contenders are elsewhere as well, and the biggest names are in fact sprinters, in Cavendish and Degenkolb.
The Course
It will be a mountainous day in the saddle for the riders, so much so, that it is a wonder that the sprinters' teams are talking their chances up here. The route takes the race from Mazarron to Alto Fortaleza del Sol (which the search engine tells me means "High Strength of the Sun"), and it will start on the coast before turning inland and uphill to find some lovely mountains for the peleton to climb. The first climb comes quite soon, after only 10 kms, a swift 3.7 km (7.5%) up the Alto de Cedacero, before returning to the coast road and some hilly terrain. That will bring the riders to the main feature of the race, two Category 1 climbs stapled together with only a 3 km plateau to give the riders a brief respite in between. The Alto de Espuna is a 8.4 km (6.9%) leg-sapper, and the Alto Collado Bermejo is 6.5 kms (7.5%) but the gradient varies and it contains some nasty pinches. There follows a descent that has both technical and fast sections and goes for quite a while (the summit is at 47.3 kms to go, the end of the descent at 25.6 kms remaining. The rest of the course ascends very gradually until a 1.7 km (5.7%) kick which flattens with 500m remaining, and then is completely flat for the last 200m. At 500m to go, there is also a hairpin turn, so it's clear that race organisers don't envisage there being a big bunch racing for the win at this point. In any case, you will probably have a fairly good idea of who will win the race by this point, as after the corner, the terrain gets flatter, and it could be a good point to launch a final attack.
It will be a mountainous day in the saddle for the riders, so much so, that it is a wonder that the sprinters' teams are talking their chances up here. The route takes the race from Mazarron to Alto Fortaleza del Sol (which the search engine tells me means "High Strength of the Sun"), and it will start on the coast before turning inland and uphill to find some lovely mountains for the peleton to climb. The first climb comes quite soon, after only 10 kms, a swift 3.7 km (7.5%) up the Alto de Cedacero, before returning to the coast road and some hilly terrain. That will bring the riders to the main feature of the race, two Category 1 climbs stapled together with only a 3 km plateau to give the riders a brief respite in between. The Alto de Espuna is a 8.4 km (6.9%) leg-sapper, and the Alto Collado Bermejo is 6.5 kms (7.5%) but the gradient varies and it contains some nasty pinches. There follows a descent that has both technical and fast sections and goes for quite a while (the summit is at 47.3 kms to go, the end of the descent at 25.6 kms remaining. The rest of the course ascends very gradually until a 1.7 km (5.7%) kick which flattens with 500m remaining, and then is completely flat for the last 200m. At 500m to go, there is also a hairpin turn, so it's clear that race organisers don't envisage there being a big bunch racing for the win at this point. In any case, you will probably have a fairly good idea of who will win the race by this point, as after the corner, the terrain gets flatter, and it could be a good point to launch a final attack.
The Tactics
I've tried looking at this course to find a reason why Etixx-Quickstep and Giant-Alpecin are quite confident in their sprinters here, and are planning to ride for them, and I'm finding it very tough. Sure, if they make the finale, they would be favourites, they can both do a power sprint after a small, relatively easy climb, but the problem will be making it there. There's about 15 kms of climbing which will definitely drop the sprinters (if not drop, there will definitely be a lot of attackers in front of them) which summit with less than 50 kms to go, with the descent very hard to gain time back on, as it contains some very technical sections that will advantage a smaller group of escapees. That will leave about 25 kms to chase down a group, and who knows if the teammates would be in much shape to chase after the work that they will have to do pacing on the climbs. Add to that, that they will probably be the only teams trying to bring the race back together at this point (maybe CCC-Sprandi Polkowice will do some work for Grega Bole, but they could well have Paterski or Rebellin up the road). So for the many reasons above, I believe that we will see an early breakaway or an attack over the Alto Collado Bermejo take the victory.
Several teams will try to get into the breakaway, but I doubt that there will be an acceptable composition found if some of the big teams try to get riders away. Of course, it may be the case that some riders use the climb 10 kms in to make their move, which would make it very hard to stop a break with strong riders escaping. This is a very Europcar sort of tactic and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them try to get Gautier or Sicard into a move early on. Whether this sort of break is given any latitude will depend upon whether the other big teams have any riders present. These riders could ride for themselves or then be used as stepping stones for later attacks by their team's favourite.
Breakaway composition and peleton politics being what they are, and the simple maths of 5-10 vs 120, it is always more likely than not that the initial break won't last to the finish. In that case, I would expect that the decisive attack will come on one of the two Category 1 climbs. The traditional tactic is to have the team ride hard initially, to thin out the bunch before launching an attack, hopefully isolating most of the other favourites from their teams in the process. I think we'll see some variation on this, maybe with a few teams taking on the duties of toughening the race. It will be interesting to see who has the legs to make the attacks at this stage of the season, and if any significant gaps are made. Generally, with this sort of race situation, there will be groups all over the road, with the breakaway remnants being caught, and how the race pans out from there will depend on group composition of the leading riders and the organisation of those behind. It will be too hard to go solo from the summit of the Alto Collado Bermejo, and I think the most realistic group size is of 10-15 riders that will ride into to the bottom of the final climb. The finish favours a puncheur or strong/climby sprinter, but at this stage of the season it will come down to who has the legs. Any team with more than one rider present will have an obvious advantage, and a one-two punch on the final climb could be a useful trick to have up their sleeve.
I've tried looking at this course to find a reason why Etixx-Quickstep and Giant-Alpecin are quite confident in their sprinters here, and are planning to ride for them, and I'm finding it very tough. Sure, if they make the finale, they would be favourites, they can both do a power sprint after a small, relatively easy climb, but the problem will be making it there. There's about 15 kms of climbing which will definitely drop the sprinters (if not drop, there will definitely be a lot of attackers in front of them) which summit with less than 50 kms to go, with the descent very hard to gain time back on, as it contains some very technical sections that will advantage a smaller group of escapees. That will leave about 25 kms to chase down a group, and who knows if the teammates would be in much shape to chase after the work that they will have to do pacing on the climbs. Add to that, that they will probably be the only teams trying to bring the race back together at this point (maybe CCC-Sprandi Polkowice will do some work for Grega Bole, but they could well have Paterski or Rebellin up the road). So for the many reasons above, I believe that we will see an early breakaway or an attack over the Alto Collado Bermejo take the victory.
Several teams will try to get into the breakaway, but I doubt that there will be an acceptable composition found if some of the big teams try to get riders away. Of course, it may be the case that some riders use the climb 10 kms in to make their move, which would make it very hard to stop a break with strong riders escaping. This is a very Europcar sort of tactic and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them try to get Gautier or Sicard into a move early on. Whether this sort of break is given any latitude will depend upon whether the other big teams have any riders present. These riders could ride for themselves or then be used as stepping stones for later attacks by their team's favourite.
Breakaway composition and peleton politics being what they are, and the simple maths of 5-10 vs 120, it is always more likely than not that the initial break won't last to the finish. In that case, I would expect that the decisive attack will come on one of the two Category 1 climbs. The traditional tactic is to have the team ride hard initially, to thin out the bunch before launching an attack, hopefully isolating most of the other favourites from their teams in the process. I think we'll see some variation on this, maybe with a few teams taking on the duties of toughening the race. It will be interesting to see who has the legs to make the attacks at this stage of the season, and if any significant gaps are made. Generally, with this sort of race situation, there will be groups all over the road, with the breakaway remnants being caught, and how the race pans out from there will depend on group composition of the leading riders and the organisation of those behind. It will be too hard to go solo from the summit of the Alto Collado Bermejo, and I think the most realistic group size is of 10-15 riders that will ride into to the bottom of the final climb. The finish favours a puncheur or strong/climby sprinter, but at this stage of the season it will come down to who has the legs. Any team with more than one rider present will have an obvious advantage, and a one-two punch on the final climb could be a useful trick to have up their sleeve.
The Contenders
In a race like this, it really gets opened up for the lesser lights of the sport to shine in the absence of the big stars. They don't have to work for the big names, so they are free to go a chase their own results. One big star who will get work done for him is Bauke Mollema. After a season with which he was personally disappointed last year, Mollema has set his sights high with Trek Factory Racing. He is coming in off good form in Mallorca, finishing 4th in one of the races, and he is normally pretty good early in the season. In addition he has history over this course, finishing 2nd in 2013. He might even have Frank Schleck in the finale to help him out, which will be useful against....
Movistar bring a squad full of potential winners to this race, and they could well have 4-5 riders in the last group if they are in decent form. Ruben Fernandez is the one I'll pick out as their main chance however. In this early stage of the season, I expect him to have the most chances to ride for himself, and he did well in last year's edition finishing 6th against much more experienced riders. There is still a big gap in experience and class, but Fernandez is clearly a talent and is in good form at the moment, coming off a strong showing at the Tour Down Under.
Daniel Navarro is the only former winner of the race lining up, winning from an early attack up the final climb, with Mollema and Valverde filling the places behind. He generally comes out pretty strong early in the season, as his past victory testifies to. He'll definitely be there or thereabouts, and he has an impressive finishing burst, similar to Joaquim Rodriquez.
Luis Leon Sanchez has been given the early season by his team to chase results, with the expectation that he'll be working for others as the season progresses. He didn't have the best of times at the Tour Down Under, wasting energy trying to split the race in the crosswinds before the finale, and being distanced as a result. He has the tools to be effective here, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get a result.
Tiago Machado is also right in with a shot at the win. The Portuguese climber finished 2nd last year, beaten only by Valverde. He claimed to be in poor form at the Tour Down Under, but then rode to 7th on the queen stage, so either he was foxing, or he is genuinely going to improve a lot from that. He will probably be isolated in the final group though, which will prove tough to fight against.
I mentioned the possibility of a breakaway succeeding above as well, and if the right break forms, they could build up a gap that's too big to overhaul. Looking through the squads, there are quite a lot of likely breakaway types that would be given the freedom by their team to go for the win, and should the right move form, you'll probably see the likes of Calvin Watson (Trek), Luis Angel Mate (Cofidis), Rein Taaramae and Davide Malacarne (both Astana), Jeremy Roy (FDJ) and Maciej Paterski getting involved. But it's the Europcar rider Cyril Gautier that I would most expect to win from a break. The next Thomas Voeckler, he has all the same attributes as his older compatriot, just younger legs.
In a race like this, it really gets opened up for the lesser lights of the sport to shine in the absence of the big stars. They don't have to work for the big names, so they are free to go a chase their own results. One big star who will get work done for him is Bauke Mollema. After a season with which he was personally disappointed last year, Mollema has set his sights high with Trek Factory Racing. He is coming in off good form in Mallorca, finishing 4th in one of the races, and he is normally pretty good early in the season. In addition he has history over this course, finishing 2nd in 2013. He might even have Frank Schleck in the finale to help him out, which will be useful against....
Movistar bring a squad full of potential winners to this race, and they could well have 4-5 riders in the last group if they are in decent form. Ruben Fernandez is the one I'll pick out as their main chance however. In this early stage of the season, I expect him to have the most chances to ride for himself, and he did well in last year's edition finishing 6th against much more experienced riders. There is still a big gap in experience and class, but Fernandez is clearly a talent and is in good form at the moment, coming off a strong showing at the Tour Down Under.
Daniel Navarro is the only former winner of the race lining up, winning from an early attack up the final climb, with Mollema and Valverde filling the places behind. He generally comes out pretty strong early in the season, as his past victory testifies to. He'll definitely be there or thereabouts, and he has an impressive finishing burst, similar to Joaquim Rodriquez.
Luis Leon Sanchez has been given the early season by his team to chase results, with the expectation that he'll be working for others as the season progresses. He didn't have the best of times at the Tour Down Under, wasting energy trying to split the race in the crosswinds before the finale, and being distanced as a result. He has the tools to be effective here, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get a result.
Tiago Machado is also right in with a shot at the win. The Portuguese climber finished 2nd last year, beaten only by Valverde. He claimed to be in poor form at the Tour Down Under, but then rode to 7th on the queen stage, so either he was foxing, or he is genuinely going to improve a lot from that. He will probably be isolated in the final group though, which will prove tough to fight against.
I mentioned the possibility of a breakaway succeeding above as well, and if the right break forms, they could build up a gap that's too big to overhaul. Looking through the squads, there are quite a lot of likely breakaway types that would be given the freedom by their team to go for the win, and should the right move form, you'll probably see the likes of Calvin Watson (Trek), Luis Angel Mate (Cofidis), Rein Taaramae and Davide Malacarne (both Astana), Jeremy Roy (FDJ) and Maciej Paterski getting involved. But it's the Europcar rider Cyril Gautier that I would most expect to win from a break. The next Thomas Voeckler, he has all the same attributes as his older compatriot, just younger legs.
The Verdict
I think Movistar will have too many cards for the other teams in the last few kilometres, I spoke about Ruben Fernandez so I'll stick with him, but look for the likes of the Izagirre brothers as well. If it's still all together at the bottom of the climb, I'd expect Daniel Navarro to win with his very impressive finishing spurt.
I think Movistar will have too many cards for the other teams in the last few kilometres, I spoke about Ruben Fernandez so I'll stick with him, but look for the likes of the Izagirre brothers as well. If it's still all together at the bottom of the climb, I'd expect Daniel Navarro to win with his very impressive finishing spurt.