The Tour of Romandie has taken on a bit of a Groundhog Day feel in recent years, with Froome, Spilak and Costa finishing 1-2-3 for two years running. Froome and Spilak in both cases escaped in the mountains with Spilak taking the sprints, before Froome turned the tables in the final stage TT to clinch the overall victory. Costa is actually going for his fourth year in a row of finishing 3rd here, and the non-GC stages are normally dominated by one climby sprinter, last year it was Albasini, who took 3 wins, the previous edition it was Gianni Meersman with 2 wins and a third. Will it be a case of deja vu, a glitch in the Matrix or Bill Murray trying to escape a timeloop? Or will we see something new from this race?
The Course
The Tour of Romandie is where the true mountains are seen really for the first time. True the Volta a Catalunya, Tirreno-Adriatico and Giro Del Trentino go through some mountain ranges, but there are some true monsters of climbs in Romandie, which are the equivalent of some of the hardest climbs during the Grand Tours. It is therefore no surprise that the winner of this race in recent years has gone on to win the Tour de France, Evans did in 2011, Wiggins in 2012 and Froome in 2013. Froome also won in 2014, but crashed out of the Tour, so that streak was broken. The course is not one for pure sprinters, but as Albasini and Meersman have shown in recent years, a climby sprinter on form can clean up on these light-medium mountain stages.
The key stages for the GC will be the opening TTT, the queen stage summit finish on Stage 5 and the TT on the final day in Stage 6. The intermediate stages are unlikely to see a shakeup on GC, as they aren't really tough enough for the favourites to distance each other, and the major climbs come too far from the finish.
The TTT is a flat, hard one that will suit the teams that excel at this discipline, and have brought riders that are strong in this type of event. BMC (Dennis), Sky (Froome), Orica-Greenedge (Yates) and Etixx-Quickstep (Uran) should do well in this, and probably build a decent advantage on the rest of the contenders, and even put a few out of the race for the GC entirely.
The queen stage is a mountaintop finish, which marks a change for the race organisers, who have opted to make it a really tough edition this year, by finishing the stage with the two back-to-back category 1 climbs. After a tough day in the saddle, the race hits the Petite Forclaz (5.1 kms, 9.8%) and then descends straight into the Champex-Lac (14.2 kms, 7%) which starts with shallower slopes before hit maximum gradients of 13% at stages. It is a brutal finish to a stage, and will see the strongest climbers get the chance to distance their rivals. Even with the TT the next day, and riders perhaps wanting to save energy for it, they will have to go flat out here, as the time gaps could potentially be huge here, indeed it would be surprising if the winner of this stage didn't go on to win the GC.
The final stage TT used to be the main decisive stage for the GC, but in the past two editions, Froome and Spilak have built sufficient leads to battle it out between themselves for the win in the TT, and this year the climbing will be even tougher, which reduces the relevance of the TT on the GC. There will be potential for position shuffling if riders are close on time, but the main difference will be made on the preceding day. The 17.3 km TT course is a hilly one, mostly flat, but with two climbs (1.4 kms, 4.5%) (750 m, 10.8%), which will give the climbers a chance, but should still make it one for the specialists.
The Tour of Romandie is where the true mountains are seen really for the first time. True the Volta a Catalunya, Tirreno-Adriatico and Giro Del Trentino go through some mountain ranges, but there are some true monsters of climbs in Romandie, which are the equivalent of some of the hardest climbs during the Grand Tours. It is therefore no surprise that the winner of this race in recent years has gone on to win the Tour de France, Evans did in 2011, Wiggins in 2012 and Froome in 2013. Froome also won in 2014, but crashed out of the Tour, so that streak was broken. The course is not one for pure sprinters, but as Albasini and Meersman have shown in recent years, a climby sprinter on form can clean up on these light-medium mountain stages.
The key stages for the GC will be the opening TTT, the queen stage summit finish on Stage 5 and the TT on the final day in Stage 6. The intermediate stages are unlikely to see a shakeup on GC, as they aren't really tough enough for the favourites to distance each other, and the major climbs come too far from the finish.
The TTT is a flat, hard one that will suit the teams that excel at this discipline, and have brought riders that are strong in this type of event. BMC (Dennis), Sky (Froome), Orica-Greenedge (Yates) and Etixx-Quickstep (Uran) should do well in this, and probably build a decent advantage on the rest of the contenders, and even put a few out of the race for the GC entirely.
The queen stage is a mountaintop finish, which marks a change for the race organisers, who have opted to make it a really tough edition this year, by finishing the stage with the two back-to-back category 1 climbs. After a tough day in the saddle, the race hits the Petite Forclaz (5.1 kms, 9.8%) and then descends straight into the Champex-Lac (14.2 kms, 7%) which starts with shallower slopes before hit maximum gradients of 13% at stages. It is a brutal finish to a stage, and will see the strongest climbers get the chance to distance their rivals. Even with the TT the next day, and riders perhaps wanting to save energy for it, they will have to go flat out here, as the time gaps could potentially be huge here, indeed it would be surprising if the winner of this stage didn't go on to win the GC.
The final stage TT used to be the main decisive stage for the GC, but in the past two editions, Froome and Spilak have built sufficient leads to battle it out between themselves for the win in the TT, and this year the climbing will be even tougher, which reduces the relevance of the TT on the GC. There will be potential for position shuffling if riders are close on time, but the main difference will be made on the preceding day. The 17.3 km TT course is a hilly one, mostly flat, but with two climbs (1.4 kms, 4.5%) (750 m, 10.8%), which will give the climbers a chance, but should still make it one for the specialists.
The Tactics
Like a grand tour a lot of the tactics will come down to squad selection, so each team can maximise the gains or limit the losses on stages will suit or don't suit their main riders. Squads haven't been finalised yet, as lots of the riders are competing at Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but the long list has been submitted.
Several squads will bring an extra TTT specialist or two for this race, and indeed we see the likes of Kung and Flakemore for BMC, Lancaster and Tuft for OGE, Martin and Serry for EQS and Thomas for Sky. Most of these riders represent a sacrifice of power in the mountains (not so Martin and Thomas, but you have to give them a rest from racing at some stage, so they will sacrificing them from other races), and Movistar has gone the other way, opting to bring a squad full of climbers to support Nairo Quintana. That will mean that they have to have a plan for Quintana to gain time in the mountains, and I expect them to use their strength to either try and isolate Froome and the other contenders, or to push men up the road to help a longer-range attack from Quintana.
Other teams have come with the ambition of stage-hunting, and there are a number of teams with climby sprinters on the start line, those stages will probably be games of brinksmanship, where the teams of the climbier sprinters try to drop the less climby sprinters like Viviani and Coquard, without putting their own men into difficulty, or breaking the race up too much for it to be controlled in the finale.
Like a grand tour a lot of the tactics will come down to squad selection, so each team can maximise the gains or limit the losses on stages will suit or don't suit their main riders. Squads haven't been finalised yet, as lots of the riders are competing at Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but the long list has been submitted.
Several squads will bring an extra TTT specialist or two for this race, and indeed we see the likes of Kung and Flakemore for BMC, Lancaster and Tuft for OGE, Martin and Serry for EQS and Thomas for Sky. Most of these riders represent a sacrifice of power in the mountains (not so Martin and Thomas, but you have to give them a rest from racing at some stage, so they will sacrificing them from other races), and Movistar has gone the other way, opting to bring a squad full of climbers to support Nairo Quintana. That will mean that they have to have a plan for Quintana to gain time in the mountains, and I expect them to use their strength to either try and isolate Froome and the other contenders, or to push men up the road to help a longer-range attack from Quintana.
Other teams have come with the ambition of stage-hunting, and there are a number of teams with climby sprinters on the start line, those stages will probably be games of brinksmanship, where the teams of the climbier sprinters try to drop the less climby sprinters like Viviani and Coquard, without putting their own men into difficulty, or breaking the race up too much for it to be controlled in the finale.
The Contenders
Chris Froome deservedly heads into the race as favourites with the bookies and at the top of my list. He has a good team for the TTT, which will also be one of the strongest in the mountains. He is one of the best climbers and also one of the best time-triallists in the world, and is generally in very good form for every race he turns up to. The exceptions to this are when he is sick or injured, he was underpar for the Volta a Catalunya, where he supported Porte to the win and he may still be feeling the effects of his Fleche-Wallone crash, but he picked himself up and finished the race, unlike many others, albeit 12 minutes down. If at full fitness, he will be very confident of adding a third Romandie title to his palmares.
Nairo Quintana had an interrupted start to the season, pulling out of the Ruta del Sol, before distancing the entire field on the queen stage of Tirreno-Adriatico convincingly. He then went into the Vuelta a Pais Vasco as the hot favourite, but probably without just cause, as he really wasn't suited to the short, steep climbs of the Basque country. He finished 4th overall there, but will be much more suited to the long climbs of the Swiss Alps. Indeed the queen stage looks almost tailor-made for the tiny Colombian, and he will be one of the strongest there. He does come off an unusual preparation, in that he will working as a domestique for Valverde in Liege, so that may have an effect, but I can't see him even being around to the finale in that race to expend energy that could be used in Romandie. He will lose time in the TTT and the TT, so he will have to gain time on the queen stage, or possibly with a sneak attack like we saw at the Giro last year, where he skipped away on a descent and was never seen again.
Vincenzo Nibali is probably the next rider on class, but he hasn't shown much in the way of form so far this season, but at least in the Ardennes classics he has been on the attack, even if he hasn't really got close to winning anything at this stage. The Tour of Romandie was where he started to get into form last year, he finished 5th, and was only just dropped by Froome and Spilak on the queen stage. He is clearly following the same strategy to last season where he peaked so impressively in the Tour de France, so I think we can expect him to be at a similar level this year. Of course the race is a bit different this year, and it will suit Nibali more, with the emphasis taken off the TT in favour of the TTT, which he has a decent team for, and the climbing on the queen stage, which is his strength. I expect to be off the pace of the best in this race, but not a mile off.
Jean-Christophe Peraud may be the second-place getter at last year's Tour, but he has been a long way off the pace in every race except the Criterium International, which he won, albeit against a lesser field. Since then, he has disappointed at Pais Vasco and Trentino, he was well off the pace in both. Instead, AG2R will probably opt to support Romain Bardet, who was building nicely into form, but fell ill during Catalunya. Since then he made a good comeback in Trentino, and he should be in good form here. A versatile rider, who can do the short or the long climbs, and can time-trial well, he should be in for a solid race. Alexis Vuillermoz is another youngster who could spring a surprise for AG2R after some decent stage race performances, followed by a ramp-up of form into the Ardennes classics, where he was 6th in Fleche, he could well do very well here.
Simon Spilak has finished second to Froome twice in a row in this race, but may struggle to do so again here, with a lot stronger field on hand to beat. In addition he won't be suited to the really hard queen stage, he prefers the shorter climbs, but he should make up some time on most of the contenders in the TT. His form has been good, finishing 3rd in Paris-Nice, and was in a position to do even better in Pais Vasco before he had an untimely mechanical in the final TT. Ilhnur Zakarin is also here from Katusha, fresh from his superb Pais Vasco performances, where he surprised everyone by finishing 9th on GC. He is still a new face on the scene, but he is reputedly a very good time-triallist, and clearly is also an accomplished climber and also has a decent sprint. I wouldn't expect him to be amongst the strongest on the queen stage, but it will be interesting to see how he goes.
Rigoberto Uran normally builds his form slowly towards his main targets, but this season he hit the ground running in Tirreno and held that form into Catalunya. Normally, he wouldn't go too deep in Romandie before the Giro, but he is clearly on a different level this year, and he could well be right up there. He is very well suited by the course, he excels on the long climbs, has a strong team for the TTT and has become a very good time-triallist in his own right. He hasn't raced for a while, but he will have been working hard to build his form for the Giro, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a top-form Uran win this race.
Rui Costa is another rider who should come into this race with top form, albeit for a different reason, as the Ardennes classics are one of the major focuses for his season, and he will still have residual form from that. Indeed, this is probably the reason that he has done well here in the past, though the course changes may affect that, as the longer climbs don't suit him as much, and he will lose time in the TTT. He does have the ability to break away on the intermediate stages however, and his capability in that sort of terrain is probably amongst the best in the race, and he may well be targeting a win on one of those stages.
Matthias Frank will be IAM's big card to play in their home race, and it will be one of his key objectives for his season. He finished 4th last year, and he has the ability to do a similar result this year. He is a very good time-triallist, can climb with the best and he'll have a very handy team in support. He hasn't shown much form to date, but it his and his team's home race, so he won't lack motivation or preparation.
My riders to watch in this race aren't youngsters in this case, but a rider returning from a long lay-off, and one in awful form. Robert Gesink has been strangely absent this season since the Volta Algarve, so it would too much to expect a win from him here, but it will be an important race to track his progress. He wasn't a mile off the pace in Fleche Wallonne, which doesn't suit him, so he might be in quite good form already, though obviously a single day doesn't prove much. Rafal Majka has had a season to forget so far, and will want to bounce back to the form that saw him win a lot of fans in the Tour de France last year. He is better suited to the long climbs, so this race may well be what he has been waiting for, but his form to date is uninspiring to say the least.
Chris Froome deservedly heads into the race as favourites with the bookies and at the top of my list. He has a good team for the TTT, which will also be one of the strongest in the mountains. He is one of the best climbers and also one of the best time-triallists in the world, and is generally in very good form for every race he turns up to. The exceptions to this are when he is sick or injured, he was underpar for the Volta a Catalunya, where he supported Porte to the win and he may still be feeling the effects of his Fleche-Wallone crash, but he picked himself up and finished the race, unlike many others, albeit 12 minutes down. If at full fitness, he will be very confident of adding a third Romandie title to his palmares.
Nairo Quintana had an interrupted start to the season, pulling out of the Ruta del Sol, before distancing the entire field on the queen stage of Tirreno-Adriatico convincingly. He then went into the Vuelta a Pais Vasco as the hot favourite, but probably without just cause, as he really wasn't suited to the short, steep climbs of the Basque country. He finished 4th overall there, but will be much more suited to the long climbs of the Swiss Alps. Indeed the queen stage looks almost tailor-made for the tiny Colombian, and he will be one of the strongest there. He does come off an unusual preparation, in that he will working as a domestique for Valverde in Liege, so that may have an effect, but I can't see him even being around to the finale in that race to expend energy that could be used in Romandie. He will lose time in the TTT and the TT, so he will have to gain time on the queen stage, or possibly with a sneak attack like we saw at the Giro last year, where he skipped away on a descent and was never seen again.
Vincenzo Nibali is probably the next rider on class, but he hasn't shown much in the way of form so far this season, but at least in the Ardennes classics he has been on the attack, even if he hasn't really got close to winning anything at this stage. The Tour of Romandie was where he started to get into form last year, he finished 5th, and was only just dropped by Froome and Spilak on the queen stage. He is clearly following the same strategy to last season where he peaked so impressively in the Tour de France, so I think we can expect him to be at a similar level this year. Of course the race is a bit different this year, and it will suit Nibali more, with the emphasis taken off the TT in favour of the TTT, which he has a decent team for, and the climbing on the queen stage, which is his strength. I expect to be off the pace of the best in this race, but not a mile off.
Jean-Christophe Peraud may be the second-place getter at last year's Tour, but he has been a long way off the pace in every race except the Criterium International, which he won, albeit against a lesser field. Since then, he has disappointed at Pais Vasco and Trentino, he was well off the pace in both. Instead, AG2R will probably opt to support Romain Bardet, who was building nicely into form, but fell ill during Catalunya. Since then he made a good comeback in Trentino, and he should be in good form here. A versatile rider, who can do the short or the long climbs, and can time-trial well, he should be in for a solid race. Alexis Vuillermoz is another youngster who could spring a surprise for AG2R after some decent stage race performances, followed by a ramp-up of form into the Ardennes classics, where he was 6th in Fleche, he could well do very well here.
Simon Spilak has finished second to Froome twice in a row in this race, but may struggle to do so again here, with a lot stronger field on hand to beat. In addition he won't be suited to the really hard queen stage, he prefers the shorter climbs, but he should make up some time on most of the contenders in the TT. His form has been good, finishing 3rd in Paris-Nice, and was in a position to do even better in Pais Vasco before he had an untimely mechanical in the final TT. Ilhnur Zakarin is also here from Katusha, fresh from his superb Pais Vasco performances, where he surprised everyone by finishing 9th on GC. He is still a new face on the scene, but he is reputedly a very good time-triallist, and clearly is also an accomplished climber and also has a decent sprint. I wouldn't expect him to be amongst the strongest on the queen stage, but it will be interesting to see how he goes.
Rigoberto Uran normally builds his form slowly towards his main targets, but this season he hit the ground running in Tirreno and held that form into Catalunya. Normally, he wouldn't go too deep in Romandie before the Giro, but he is clearly on a different level this year, and he could well be right up there. He is very well suited by the course, he excels on the long climbs, has a strong team for the TTT and has become a very good time-triallist in his own right. He hasn't raced for a while, but he will have been working hard to build his form for the Giro, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a top-form Uran win this race.
Rui Costa is another rider who should come into this race with top form, albeit for a different reason, as the Ardennes classics are one of the major focuses for his season, and he will still have residual form from that. Indeed, this is probably the reason that he has done well here in the past, though the course changes may affect that, as the longer climbs don't suit him as much, and he will lose time in the TTT. He does have the ability to break away on the intermediate stages however, and his capability in that sort of terrain is probably amongst the best in the race, and he may well be targeting a win on one of those stages.
Matthias Frank will be IAM's big card to play in their home race, and it will be one of his key objectives for his season. He finished 4th last year, and he has the ability to do a similar result this year. He is a very good time-triallist, can climb with the best and he'll have a very handy team in support. He hasn't shown much form to date, but it his and his team's home race, so he won't lack motivation or preparation.
My riders to watch in this race aren't youngsters in this case, but a rider returning from a long lay-off, and one in awful form. Robert Gesink has been strangely absent this season since the Volta Algarve, so it would too much to expect a win from him here, but it will be an important race to track his progress. He wasn't a mile off the pace in Fleche Wallonne, which doesn't suit him, so he might be in quite good form already, though obviously a single day doesn't prove much. Rafal Majka has had a season to forget so far, and will want to bounce back to the form that saw him win a lot of fans in the Tour de France last year. He is better suited to the long climbs, so this race may well be what he has been waiting for, but his form to date is uninspiring to say the least.
The Verdict
Bit boring, but it looks like Chris Froome will take the win here, for the third year in a row. Movistar and Quintana will really have their work cut out to neutralise the power of the Sky squad, and make up the time that he will lose in the TTs, and the only real threat I see to the overall for Froome is Uran, who might only be here in training and not looking to go too deep. Even if Uran is at his best, Froome is a better climber and a better time-triallist, and should win regardless.
Bit boring, but it looks like Chris Froome will take the win here, for the third year in a row. Movistar and Quintana will really have their work cut out to neutralise the power of the Sky squad, and make up the time that he will lose in the TTs, and the only real threat I see to the overall for Froome is Uran, who might only be here in training and not looking to go too deep. Even if Uran is at his best, Froome is a better climber and a better time-triallist, and should win regardless.