Races on the Arabian peninsula continue with the oldest race on the schedule, the Tour of Qatar which began in 2002. The race could reasonably be renamed the Tommeke Tour, Boonen has raced it 10 times, for 4 GC wins, 8 GC podiums and 22 stage wins. Also the two times he came 2nd, a teammate won the race. It was also Boonen who popularised this race as being a traditional lead-up for the cobbles season, and indeed we see most of the riders that are looking to be competitive in Flanders at the startline here.
The Course
As is the norm for Qatar the race organisers haven't bothered to publish course profiles, as it's a lot quicker to tell people that it's flat rather than viewing six separate flat lines. They have published maps however, which are much more crucial to this sort of racing, where the wind plays the major role in splitting up the pack, and the map shows what sort of wind that the riders will face at any given moment. Whether it be a withering headwind, a comforting tailwind or a ball-busting crosswind. Of course crosswinds are the ones to be on the watch for, and the riders will be in for little respite for when they do hit, as the deserts of Qatar don't offer much in the way of windbreaks. The winning breakaways as a result of the winds generally decide the race although the time trial and bonus seconds on the line can split up the field a bit, and will certainly prove decisive if the wind god fails to send anything more potent than a mild zephyr.
Wind being tricky to pin down ahead of time, it's hard to know which stage of the race will be the decisive one, with all of them fundamentally similar except for the time trial. The time trial is short at 10.9 kms, and last year was taken out by Michael Hepburn, who snuck by Lars Boom by a second to take the win. Neither went on to achieve anything on GC, but it is important to do a good TT, as Terpstra's 14 seconds gained on Boonen here helped him win, with only a 12 seond gap between the Terpstra in first and Tommeke in 2nd at the end of the race.
As is the norm for Qatar the race organisers haven't bothered to publish course profiles, as it's a lot quicker to tell people that it's flat rather than viewing six separate flat lines. They have published maps however, which are much more crucial to this sort of racing, where the wind plays the major role in splitting up the pack, and the map shows what sort of wind that the riders will face at any given moment. Whether it be a withering headwind, a comforting tailwind or a ball-busting crosswind. Of course crosswinds are the ones to be on the watch for, and the riders will be in for little respite for when they do hit, as the deserts of Qatar don't offer much in the way of windbreaks. The winning breakaways as a result of the winds generally decide the race although the time trial and bonus seconds on the line can split up the field a bit, and will certainly prove decisive if the wind god fails to send anything more potent than a mild zephyr.
Wind being tricky to pin down ahead of time, it's hard to know which stage of the race will be the decisive one, with all of them fundamentally similar except for the time trial. The time trial is short at 10.9 kms, and last year was taken out by Michael Hepburn, who snuck by Lars Boom by a second to take the win. Neither went on to achieve anything on GC, but it is important to do a good TT, as Terpstra's 14 seconds gained on Boonen here helped him win, with only a 12 seond gap between the Terpstra in first and Tommeke in 2nd at the end of the race.
Tactics
In the right conditions, with a suitably strong wind coming from the side of the peleton, strong teams can make a gap form seemingly out of nothing, but of course there's a lot of planning and effort that goes into these moves. Splits caused by the wind are generally formed by one or two teams hammering away on the front like a demented blacksmith hammering on a particularly hated anvil. Eventually someone behind can't follow a wheel, and the wind rushes in from the side to make that one rider dropping off into a gap which splits the field to pieces. After that, it is a contest of strength and organisation between the respective teams, generally with the initial advantage being with the front group, as they are already in position and working well, and then shifting to the group behind that has the weight in numbers. Of course, sometimes the tempo is so high that more than one split occurs, and that can really wreak havoc, as the 2nd and 3rd groups on the road don't have the strength in numbers anymore, and have to scramble frantically to get back in touch. Team dynamics are the most important factor at this stage, having a favourite present in the move up the road, will mean that a team sits on and doesn't chase, and having to drag too many passengers with them will demoralise a chasing team pretty quickly. Whilst all that is going on behind, the riders in front are trying to work hard enough so that they stay away, whilst also jockeying amongst each other for the stage win. The advantage normally lies with the team that has the numbers in the break, as they have more firepower to chase down moves, and more cards to play in moves of their own. So there's all these interesting factors and much more, which are unfortunately nigh on impossible to predict before the crucial split occurs.
Nonetheless, generally the best place to start is to look at which team has the most riders suited to this type of racing. Get used to me talking about Etixx-Quickstep during the cobbles season. and to ease you in I'll give you a short spiel here. Best cobbles team, and best team in the wind, they have 5-6 potential winners of this race on their squad, and will almost definitely have the numbers in any break established by the wind, as almost all of their squad is expert in this style of racing. They will really be trying to split the race up wherever possible to exploit their strength in numbers. Boonen is still their key man, but Terpstra is coming off an amazing 2014 and will be keen to ensure that he takes the mantle as team leader once Boonen is gone. Look for the white, black and blue of EQS to hit the front during the key moments of the race.
Perhaps a little bit surprisingly Sky also have a fairly strong roster present, spearheaded by the mercurial Bradley Wiggins. Rather than going on the path of just riding Roubaix, Wiggins has opted for a traditional classics preparation, and could well challenge here, if he has they interest. Stannard, Eisel and Fenn are all very good in these conditions as well, so we could see a strong showing from the British squad.
Also experienced in this type of racing is the majority of the Trek Factory Racing team, but this may be a bit of a red herring, as Cancellara rarely performs well in Qatar, treating the race as training. Nonetheless it is a good team that they've brought, and they should be active in any moves that go.
I'll chuck Astana in as a strong team as well, which would have been unthinkable only a season back, but additions of Boom and De Vreese make the likes of Westra and Bozic look less lonely in these races.
Against them, we'll likely see the teams of the sprinters trying to close down the gaps and keep it all together in general. So, Giant-Alpecin (Kittel), FDJ (Demare), Cofidis (Bouhanni) and Tinkoff-Saxo (Sagan). Their tactics are quite simple, keep the race together until the finish and win stages to get bonus seconds to win the GC. Those mentioned above (with the exception of Bouhanni) are also creditable time triallists over this sort of short course so could be expected to hold a decent sized lead, if they manage to build one through bonuses.
In the right conditions, with a suitably strong wind coming from the side of the peleton, strong teams can make a gap form seemingly out of nothing, but of course there's a lot of planning and effort that goes into these moves. Splits caused by the wind are generally formed by one or two teams hammering away on the front like a demented blacksmith hammering on a particularly hated anvil. Eventually someone behind can't follow a wheel, and the wind rushes in from the side to make that one rider dropping off into a gap which splits the field to pieces. After that, it is a contest of strength and organisation between the respective teams, generally with the initial advantage being with the front group, as they are already in position and working well, and then shifting to the group behind that has the weight in numbers. Of course, sometimes the tempo is so high that more than one split occurs, and that can really wreak havoc, as the 2nd and 3rd groups on the road don't have the strength in numbers anymore, and have to scramble frantically to get back in touch. Team dynamics are the most important factor at this stage, having a favourite present in the move up the road, will mean that a team sits on and doesn't chase, and having to drag too many passengers with them will demoralise a chasing team pretty quickly. Whilst all that is going on behind, the riders in front are trying to work hard enough so that they stay away, whilst also jockeying amongst each other for the stage win. The advantage normally lies with the team that has the numbers in the break, as they have more firepower to chase down moves, and more cards to play in moves of their own. So there's all these interesting factors and much more, which are unfortunately nigh on impossible to predict before the crucial split occurs.
Nonetheless, generally the best place to start is to look at which team has the most riders suited to this type of racing. Get used to me talking about Etixx-Quickstep during the cobbles season. and to ease you in I'll give you a short spiel here. Best cobbles team, and best team in the wind, they have 5-6 potential winners of this race on their squad, and will almost definitely have the numbers in any break established by the wind, as almost all of their squad is expert in this style of racing. They will really be trying to split the race up wherever possible to exploit their strength in numbers. Boonen is still their key man, but Terpstra is coming off an amazing 2014 and will be keen to ensure that he takes the mantle as team leader once Boonen is gone. Look for the white, black and blue of EQS to hit the front during the key moments of the race.
Perhaps a little bit surprisingly Sky also have a fairly strong roster present, spearheaded by the mercurial Bradley Wiggins. Rather than going on the path of just riding Roubaix, Wiggins has opted for a traditional classics preparation, and could well challenge here, if he has they interest. Stannard, Eisel and Fenn are all very good in these conditions as well, so we could see a strong showing from the British squad.
Also experienced in this type of racing is the majority of the Trek Factory Racing team, but this may be a bit of a red herring, as Cancellara rarely performs well in Qatar, treating the race as training. Nonetheless it is a good team that they've brought, and they should be active in any moves that go.
I'll chuck Astana in as a strong team as well, which would have been unthinkable only a season back, but additions of Boom and De Vreese make the likes of Westra and Bozic look less lonely in these races.
Against them, we'll likely see the teams of the sprinters trying to close down the gaps and keep it all together in general. So, Giant-Alpecin (Kittel), FDJ (Demare), Cofidis (Bouhanni) and Tinkoff-Saxo (Sagan). Their tactics are quite simple, keep the race together until the finish and win stages to get bonus seconds to win the GC. Those mentioned above (with the exception of Bouhanni) are also creditable time triallists over this sort of short course so could be expected to hold a decent sized lead, if they manage to build one through bonuses.
The Contenders:
As mentioned above, I expect it to be a game of numbers once a breakaway is formed, and there's no team better placed to do that than EQS. Any of a number of them that could win from a breakaway, but there's only really one that can reliably win from a sprint and that is Boonen. It will be interesting viewing to see how EQS play their tactics should they make a break, as they'll normally have the fastest man, which would suggest that you try for a sprint finish, but they'll also have the numbers, which suggest that you attack. Terpstra and Van Keirsbulck would be the other two favourites from EQS.
Marcel Kittel would be the favourite if every stage came down to a bunch sprint, as he'll hoover up the bonuses, and probably have enough in the bank for the time trial, which over a short distance should suit him quite well. He's shown in the past that whilst he's never too good in Australia, he's much better by the time the Middle East season comes around, and showed that last year by winning 3 from 3 sprints in the Dubai Tour.
Peter Sagan is too good not to talk about here, but he can't simply rely on sprinting and doing a good time-trial to win here, he'll have to find a break as well. Not quite fast enough to grab a lot of bonuses, nonetheless if he latches on to the right move, he will be the fastest in the group. His team is solid and should be better than Cannondale was for him in the past for this style of racing, so we could see a new, invigorated Sagan put his rivals on notice here. He's normally pretty good early season as well.
Lars Boom is looking in ominous form so far this season, teasing the peleton with some attacks in the Tour Down Under and the Tour of Qatar, blowing those that tried to follow off his wheel. One of the best in the wind, he also has a handy sprint and excels at these short TTs. Has some able support and has to come into calculations.
This is getting rather long so I'll wrap it up with a quick grouping of potential winners and why I think they won't win.
Those that will be too isolated if they do happen to make a split; Alexander Kristoff, Greg Van Avermaet, Alejandro Valverde, Heinrich Haussler and Jens Keukeliere.
Too early in the season; Fabian Cancellara, Phillipe Gilbert and Gert Steegmans.
The Verdict:
I think we'll see a victory from an EQS rider, and I'll pick Guillame Van Keirsbulck. He's got a big engine and good race sense, and is still only young and getting stronger. He won't be one of the marked men, as there are simply too many from EQS to mark, but is strong enough to convert an opportunity into a victory.
As mentioned above, I expect it to be a game of numbers once a breakaway is formed, and there's no team better placed to do that than EQS. Any of a number of them that could win from a breakaway, but there's only really one that can reliably win from a sprint and that is Boonen. It will be interesting viewing to see how EQS play their tactics should they make a break, as they'll normally have the fastest man, which would suggest that you try for a sprint finish, but they'll also have the numbers, which suggest that you attack. Terpstra and Van Keirsbulck would be the other two favourites from EQS.
Marcel Kittel would be the favourite if every stage came down to a bunch sprint, as he'll hoover up the bonuses, and probably have enough in the bank for the time trial, which over a short distance should suit him quite well. He's shown in the past that whilst he's never too good in Australia, he's much better by the time the Middle East season comes around, and showed that last year by winning 3 from 3 sprints in the Dubai Tour.
Peter Sagan is too good not to talk about here, but he can't simply rely on sprinting and doing a good time-trial to win here, he'll have to find a break as well. Not quite fast enough to grab a lot of bonuses, nonetheless if he latches on to the right move, he will be the fastest in the group. His team is solid and should be better than Cannondale was for him in the past for this style of racing, so we could see a new, invigorated Sagan put his rivals on notice here. He's normally pretty good early season as well.
Lars Boom is looking in ominous form so far this season, teasing the peleton with some attacks in the Tour Down Under and the Tour of Qatar, blowing those that tried to follow off his wheel. One of the best in the wind, he also has a handy sprint and excels at these short TTs. Has some able support and has to come into calculations.
This is getting rather long so I'll wrap it up with a quick grouping of potential winners and why I think they won't win.
Those that will be too isolated if they do happen to make a split; Alexander Kristoff, Greg Van Avermaet, Alejandro Valverde, Heinrich Haussler and Jens Keukeliere.
Too early in the season; Fabian Cancellara, Phillipe Gilbert and Gert Steegmans.
The Verdict:
I think we'll see a victory from an EQS rider, and I'll pick Guillame Van Keirsbulck. He's got a big engine and good race sense, and is still only young and getting stronger. He won't be one of the marked men, as there are simply too many from EQS to mark, but is strong enough to convert an opportunity into a victory.