This stage promises to be one for the sprinters, with warm conditions, gentle breezes, flat terrain and nice wide roads all pointing to the first bunch sprint of the Tour of Oman. There should be a few others as well, but this stage doesn't have the potential for cross-winds, or any nasty climbing to prevent the sprinters from winning this.
The Course
It's a 161 km long stage, starting at Bayt Al Naman Castle. (History: Bayt Al Naman Castle was the early home of the Al Bu Said dynasty, which is the current ruling family in Oman. It was built by the Ya'aruba Immans during a politcal and cultural renaissance period in Oman 1624-1741 AD.) The final few kilometres are non-technical and won't phase anyone, but the last 300m does go uphill, so it will perhaps slightly favour the stronger sprinters. I doubt that it will inconvenience anyone however, and all will have their shot to win here.
The Tactics
Sometimes in the first race of a Tour, you find teams are unwilling to take on the burden of doing the working chasing down a break. However, Katusha were clearly ready to put in the hard yards last week against what was arguably a superior group of sprinters than this bunch, and so should be happy enough to keep the break in check here. The same goes for IAM who have Pelucchi coming off two wins in Mallorca. There are plenty of other teams with sprinters as well, so there will be no shortage of help if the break's lead looks to be getting out of hand.
The Contenders
There are a few riders who bring winning form into this first stage, with Sam Bennet upstaging the favourites to win the last stage in Qatar and Pelucchi doing the same in Mallorca, with both beating quite a few of the riders that they will face here. Alexander Kristoff arguably brings the best form however, his three stage victories and 3rd overall in the Tour of Qatar were a very impressive return. Peter Sagan also finished less than a wheel-length behind Kristoff on two occasions, and looked fairly strong apart from a poor TT performance. Guardini always starts his seasons well, and this year he has opted to do a lot of racing early on, perhaps to capitalise on his early season form. This will be his third stage race already, and as long as he isn't too tired, he should have better legs than most. The rest of the sprinters have displayed average or poor form, or no form and don't have a history of starting the season in a winning fashion. Special mention for Nikias Arndt, whom I didn't really know before the Tour of Qatar last week, just thought of him as a leadout rider, but he put his hand up in Kittel's absence, and got a few podium placings.
There won't be any selection throughout the stage so it will come to a combination of leadout, smarts and legs for whomever wins this one. I don't see any particular leadout trains being stronger than the others, with most of the teams coming to Oman with split objectives of sprinting and GC. Most of the sprinters have a good leadout man plus one or two others that I would consider good leadout men, so I doubt we'll see a Giant- Alpecin or Lotto-Soudal style of one train being significantly stronger than the others. That will mean that smarts are more important than ever, picking the right wheels to follow in the finale and in addition the last 300m are likely to be tough, and timing the final burst will be of crucial importance. This plays right into the hands of Peter Sagan. There's none better at bike handling or positioning in the final kms and anything uphill will suit him nicely. Alexander Kristoff also will appreciate the finish being a little harder, and with Luca Paolini guiding him around, he'll be in the mix for the final sprint. Bouhanni is another that I consider to be smart enough to win in this sort of finish, but he's down on form at the moment, though his best result of 3rd was on the final stage of Qatar, suggesting that he's getting stronger.
The Verdict
Peter Sagan. In the washing machine that is the positioning of riders in the final kms, there is none better than Sagan at finding his way through. In an open field, with about 15 sprinters all looking to take the win, it will be chaotic, and Sagan is the only rider I would say with certainty that will be in the top few places.
It's a 161 km long stage, starting at Bayt Al Naman Castle. (History: Bayt Al Naman Castle was the early home of the Al Bu Said dynasty, which is the current ruling family in Oman. It was built by the Ya'aruba Immans during a politcal and cultural renaissance period in Oman 1624-1741 AD.) The final few kilometres are non-technical and won't phase anyone, but the last 300m does go uphill, so it will perhaps slightly favour the stronger sprinters. I doubt that it will inconvenience anyone however, and all will have their shot to win here.
The Tactics
Sometimes in the first race of a Tour, you find teams are unwilling to take on the burden of doing the working chasing down a break. However, Katusha were clearly ready to put in the hard yards last week against what was arguably a superior group of sprinters than this bunch, and so should be happy enough to keep the break in check here. The same goes for IAM who have Pelucchi coming off two wins in Mallorca. There are plenty of other teams with sprinters as well, so there will be no shortage of help if the break's lead looks to be getting out of hand.
The Contenders
There are a few riders who bring winning form into this first stage, with Sam Bennet upstaging the favourites to win the last stage in Qatar and Pelucchi doing the same in Mallorca, with both beating quite a few of the riders that they will face here. Alexander Kristoff arguably brings the best form however, his three stage victories and 3rd overall in the Tour of Qatar were a very impressive return. Peter Sagan also finished less than a wheel-length behind Kristoff on two occasions, and looked fairly strong apart from a poor TT performance. Guardini always starts his seasons well, and this year he has opted to do a lot of racing early on, perhaps to capitalise on his early season form. This will be his third stage race already, and as long as he isn't too tired, he should have better legs than most. The rest of the sprinters have displayed average or poor form, or no form and don't have a history of starting the season in a winning fashion. Special mention for Nikias Arndt, whom I didn't really know before the Tour of Qatar last week, just thought of him as a leadout rider, but he put his hand up in Kittel's absence, and got a few podium placings.
There won't be any selection throughout the stage so it will come to a combination of leadout, smarts and legs for whomever wins this one. I don't see any particular leadout trains being stronger than the others, with most of the teams coming to Oman with split objectives of sprinting and GC. Most of the sprinters have a good leadout man plus one or two others that I would consider good leadout men, so I doubt we'll see a Giant- Alpecin or Lotto-Soudal style of one train being significantly stronger than the others. That will mean that smarts are more important than ever, picking the right wheels to follow in the finale and in addition the last 300m are likely to be tough, and timing the final burst will be of crucial importance. This plays right into the hands of Peter Sagan. There's none better at bike handling or positioning in the final kms and anything uphill will suit him nicely. Alexander Kristoff also will appreciate the finish being a little harder, and with Luca Paolini guiding him around, he'll be in the mix for the final sprint. Bouhanni is another that I consider to be smart enough to win in this sort of finish, but he's down on form at the moment, though his best result of 3rd was on the final stage of Qatar, suggesting that he's getting stronger.
The Verdict
Peter Sagan. In the washing machine that is the positioning of riders in the final kms, there is none better than Sagan at finding his way through. In an open field, with about 15 sprinters all looking to take the win, it will be chaotic, and Sagan is the only rider I would say with certainty that will be in the top few places.