The UN tells me that Oman has improved the most of any society in the last 20 years, which sounds a bit like winning the 'Most Improved' award in Under 6 soccer. If a society's success can be measured by the quality of its bike races (it definitely can!) then I would say that the UN are spot on. Oman does what it does very well, it caters to all types of riders, so there is a bit of something-for-everyone feel to the race.
The Course:
As you can see, the race is based around the host city of Muscat, a feature of the early season races, which use the lure of a convenient single city as a base, which allows the riders to be more settled and focus on their racing/training. Stage 1 is a flat affair, as are stages 3 and 6. Stage 2 has some sharp climbs close to the end, not hard enough to create a major selection, but they will sap the legs of the sprinters, and give an opportunity for attackers. Stage 4 is the traditional journey up Green Mountain, and will be where the big gaps in the GC are made. Stage 5 is a classics style race, with a bunch of short, tough climbs and the potential for wind along the coast, and it will be the last chance for the GC contenders to take time on each other.
As you can see, the race is based around the host city of Muscat, a feature of the early season races, which use the lure of a convenient single city as a base, which allows the riders to be more settled and focus on their racing/training. Stage 1 is a flat affair, as are stages 3 and 6. Stage 2 has some sharp climbs close to the end, not hard enough to create a major selection, but they will sap the legs of the sprinters, and give an opportunity for attackers. Stage 4 is the traditional journey up Green Mountain, and will be where the big gaps in the GC are made. Stage 5 is a classics style race, with a bunch of short, tough climbs and the potential for wind along the coast, and it will be the last chance for the GC contenders to take time on each other.
The Tactics:
It's a wide open race this edition, with plenty of teams bringing GC contenders and sprinters, and quite a few classics specialists also coming along. Etixx-Quickstep has brought their cobbles squad, fresh off their Qatar success, so they will look to make the race one of attrition if the conditions suit.
The sprint stages should be well controlled, with a number of teams interested in flexing their muscles in the sprint finish. The same applies for the Green Mountain stage, but it will be different on the classics-style Stage 5, as there will a leader's jersey to protect for one team, whilst the others will try to attack them. Hopefully the GC is still close here, as it will quite likely provide some thrilling racing.
The Contenders:
Probably Paris-Nice is the point where I'll stop speaking about early season form, but until then, it is the main factor in determining who is likely to win. I'll group the contenders into some helpful divisions to give you some idea of how I view their chances. Essentially I believe that to win the race you need to be a top-tier climber, in good form, with at least the ability to limit losses in a classics-style race. There's also the possibility that the race breaks up in the wind, so a strong,tactically astute rider could gain some time there as well.
Top quality climbers, in good form, or generally start their seasons well; Alejandro Valverde, Tejay Van Garderen, Leopold Konig.
Top quality climbers with average form or generally start their seasons ok; Vincenzo Nibali, Roman Kreuziger, Joaquim Rodriguez, Julian Arredondo, Rui Costa.
Top quality climbers, in poor form or generally start their season poorly; Rafal Majka, Daniel Moreno, Wout Poels, Warren Barguil, Damiano Caruso.
Arnold Jeannesson gets a special mention here. Normally an average rider, he has a special affinity with the Tour of Oman, generally finishing in contention for the GC. There wouldn't be many other races I'd mention his prospects in, so I though I'd take the chance here.
Louis Meintjes is a young climber who has shown bags of potential and I'm excited to see how he goes this year. He should be the leader for the Green Mountain stage at least, so it should be a decent gauge of what can be expected of him this season.
It's a wide open race this edition, with plenty of teams bringing GC contenders and sprinters, and quite a few classics specialists also coming along. Etixx-Quickstep has brought their cobbles squad, fresh off their Qatar success, so they will look to make the race one of attrition if the conditions suit.
The sprint stages should be well controlled, with a number of teams interested in flexing their muscles in the sprint finish. The same applies for the Green Mountain stage, but it will be different on the classics-style Stage 5, as there will a leader's jersey to protect for one team, whilst the others will try to attack them. Hopefully the GC is still close here, as it will quite likely provide some thrilling racing.
The Contenders:
Probably Paris-Nice is the point where I'll stop speaking about early season form, but until then, it is the main factor in determining who is likely to win. I'll group the contenders into some helpful divisions to give you some idea of how I view their chances. Essentially I believe that to win the race you need to be a top-tier climber, in good form, with at least the ability to limit losses in a classics-style race. There's also the possibility that the race breaks up in the wind, so a strong,tactically astute rider could gain some time there as well.
Top quality climbers, in good form, or generally start their seasons well; Alejandro Valverde, Tejay Van Garderen, Leopold Konig.
Top quality climbers with average form or generally start their seasons ok; Vincenzo Nibali, Roman Kreuziger, Joaquim Rodriguez, Julian Arredondo, Rui Costa.
Top quality climbers, in poor form or generally start their season poorly; Rafal Majka, Daniel Moreno, Wout Poels, Warren Barguil, Damiano Caruso.
Arnold Jeannesson gets a special mention here. Normally an average rider, he has a special affinity with the Tour of Oman, generally finishing in contention for the GC. There wouldn't be many other races I'd mention his prospects in, so I though I'd take the chance here.
Louis Meintjes is a young climber who has shown bags of potential and I'm excited to see how he goes this year. He should be the leader for the Green Mountain stage at least, so it should be a decent gauge of what can be expected of him this season.
The Verdict: