And it's crunch time now at the Tour Down Under, with what is traditionally the most decisive stage. BMC hold a strong hand with Dennis and Evans in first and second, but they will know that nothing can be taken for granted with the gaps so small at the moment, and bonus seconds on the line for the stage's winner.
The Course
The route hasn't changed a millimetre from last year, and why change a good thing? Spectators will be crammed onto Willunga Hill, as well as the initial circuit around the coast, and clearly this double circuit format work well for the TDU organisers. It starts with 3 flat laps around the coast, with the biggest features being the potential for crosswinds and splits deriving from them, and the bonus sprints. After the 3 laps are completed, riders head up Willunga Hill (3.0km, 7%) for the first time, and when they crest it, there is 22km to go to the finish. The course plateaus at the top of Willunga before a technical descent hits the base of the hill, and they circle back around to the climb. The first one up this time will be the winner.
The weather today should reach a balmy 30 degrees, and the wind will be a 20 km/hr westerly. This will be a crosswind for the exposed coastal section on the initial laps, and a tailwind up Willunga Hill.
The Tactics
It will be an interesting day well before the race gets to the climb, with the tactics of the major teams fairly uncertain heading into the race. BMC will obviously have the job of protecting the jersey and keeping the break in check, but they would probably be suited by a break taking away all the bonuses on the intermediate sprints and the finish line, so if a non-threatening break goes clear they would be quite happy to let it go to the finish. This would force the work onto Sky, Giant-Alpecin and any team with ambitions for the stage win. Orica-Greenedge showed some innovative tactics yesterday to get Impey some bonus seconds at the intermediate sprint, and then drove it very hard to dislodge the pure sprinters, which allowed Impey to sprint for some more bonuses on the finish line. The other teams will be a bit more clued up to this strategy, and will be trying to prevent a sprint for the bonuses. Impey will probably find himself sprinting against Sutton (protecting Porte's position) and Dumoulin (for himself) or maybe even Kittel (if Dumoulin wants to save his energy).
However, Orica showed that they have the power to really put the peleton into discomfort, and they could try to drive it really hard in the crosswind section on the initial circuit, which could split the race asunder. The key GC riders will have to be attentive on these sections, or they could find themselves out of the race before they even get to the climb.
There should be sufficient motivation for Sky and Giant to ensure that everything comes back together for the favourites to battle it out on the big climb of the day, so the stage and most likely, the race, will be decided on the slopes of Willunga. The first time up Willunga is typically where the team with the best rider sets a hard tempo. Would be attackers can only really escape near the top in that case, and history has shown that the escapees rarely build up much of a gap in these moves. That could change if a strong attack with the right compostion goes free, but I'm struggling to think what that break might be. BMC are not going to send a man on the attack with 1st and 2nd to protect, Sky and Orica don't really have that 2nd threatening GC option to play as a card here. Basically I think that whatever move goes free, it will be brought back by the favourites and it will go down to the final ascent.
In the past, the key to winning up Willunga has been timing the attack. It is rare that we see a winning move go early on the slopes, with Porte's attack last year being a notable exception. In previous editions, Slagter and Gerrans left it till 400-500m to go before launching powerful surges and coming over the top of previous attackers. Even last year, it looked like Porte was riding to the GC victory as well as the stage, but had huge chunks of time taken out by the late surge by Gerrans, which allowed him to take the ochre jersey.
BMC are the only team with two guys right at the pointy end of the GC fight, and in 1st and 2nd so clearly they hold the strongest hand in most tactical battles. I would expect to see Dennis lead off with an attack, with Evans sitting on wheels, hitting them again if the Dennis attack is brought back. Of course the opposite could be the case, but I still see Evans as the protected rider here. I don't think that riding defensively is really a smart option on this course (ie. with moves going clear and Evans and Dennis chasing them down together), as the time gaps are so small and there are bonuses on the line.
The Verdict
Going off how this stage is won, and how this year's race has gone to date, I can't go past a Cadel Evans victory today. He was the strongest up the Parracombe climb, and will enjoy the benefit of having Rohan Dennis as another card that the other favourites will have to respond to. A great way to see out his career, but it should be a great day of racing regardless.
The route hasn't changed a millimetre from last year, and why change a good thing? Spectators will be crammed onto Willunga Hill, as well as the initial circuit around the coast, and clearly this double circuit format work well for the TDU organisers. It starts with 3 flat laps around the coast, with the biggest features being the potential for crosswinds and splits deriving from them, and the bonus sprints. After the 3 laps are completed, riders head up Willunga Hill (3.0km, 7%) for the first time, and when they crest it, there is 22km to go to the finish. The course plateaus at the top of Willunga before a technical descent hits the base of the hill, and they circle back around to the climb. The first one up this time will be the winner.
The weather today should reach a balmy 30 degrees, and the wind will be a 20 km/hr westerly. This will be a crosswind for the exposed coastal section on the initial laps, and a tailwind up Willunga Hill.
The Tactics
It will be an interesting day well before the race gets to the climb, with the tactics of the major teams fairly uncertain heading into the race. BMC will obviously have the job of protecting the jersey and keeping the break in check, but they would probably be suited by a break taking away all the bonuses on the intermediate sprints and the finish line, so if a non-threatening break goes clear they would be quite happy to let it go to the finish. This would force the work onto Sky, Giant-Alpecin and any team with ambitions for the stage win. Orica-Greenedge showed some innovative tactics yesterday to get Impey some bonus seconds at the intermediate sprint, and then drove it very hard to dislodge the pure sprinters, which allowed Impey to sprint for some more bonuses on the finish line. The other teams will be a bit more clued up to this strategy, and will be trying to prevent a sprint for the bonuses. Impey will probably find himself sprinting against Sutton (protecting Porte's position) and Dumoulin (for himself) or maybe even Kittel (if Dumoulin wants to save his energy).
However, Orica showed that they have the power to really put the peleton into discomfort, and they could try to drive it really hard in the crosswind section on the initial circuit, which could split the race asunder. The key GC riders will have to be attentive on these sections, or they could find themselves out of the race before they even get to the climb.
There should be sufficient motivation for Sky and Giant to ensure that everything comes back together for the favourites to battle it out on the big climb of the day, so the stage and most likely, the race, will be decided on the slopes of Willunga. The first time up Willunga is typically where the team with the best rider sets a hard tempo. Would be attackers can only really escape near the top in that case, and history has shown that the escapees rarely build up much of a gap in these moves. That could change if a strong attack with the right compostion goes free, but I'm struggling to think what that break might be. BMC are not going to send a man on the attack with 1st and 2nd to protect, Sky and Orica don't really have that 2nd threatening GC option to play as a card here. Basically I think that whatever move goes free, it will be brought back by the favourites and it will go down to the final ascent.
In the past, the key to winning up Willunga has been timing the attack. It is rare that we see a winning move go early on the slopes, with Porte's attack last year being a notable exception. In previous editions, Slagter and Gerrans left it till 400-500m to go before launching powerful surges and coming over the top of previous attackers. Even last year, it looked like Porte was riding to the GC victory as well as the stage, but had huge chunks of time taken out by the late surge by Gerrans, which allowed him to take the ochre jersey.
BMC are the only team with two guys right at the pointy end of the GC fight, and in 1st and 2nd so clearly they hold the strongest hand in most tactical battles. I would expect to see Dennis lead off with an attack, with Evans sitting on wheels, hitting them again if the Dennis attack is brought back. Of course the opposite could be the case, but I still see Evans as the protected rider here. I don't think that riding defensively is really a smart option on this course (ie. with moves going clear and Evans and Dennis chasing them down together), as the time gaps are so small and there are bonuses on the line.
The Verdict
Going off how this stage is won, and how this year's race has gone to date, I can't go past a Cadel Evans victory today. He was the strongest up the Parracombe climb, and will enjoy the benefit of having Rohan Dennis as another card that the other favourites will have to respond to. A great way to see out his career, but it should be a great day of racing regardless.