A climby sprint stage here, that should shed a number of sprinters before the finish. There is a climb with 8kms to go which could be the launchpad for an attack, so we should see some exciting racing on the run to the finish. Also on the cards is a successful breakaway, and we could see some unlikely types take a stage win.
The Course
144.5 kms from Glenelg to Mt Barker, with a fair bit of the course going uphill, but at fairly easy gradients, which should mean that it is the sprinters that contest the finish. The only categorised "climb" is to Sellick's Hill, a 5.4 km ascent at 2.3%. There is also plenty of climbing around Macclesfield, in fact there is 19 kms at an average of 2% at one stage, which is sure to sap the legs of many in the peleton. At the pointy end of the stage there is a 800m climb at 7%, which ends with 8kms to go, a pretty big obstacle for the sprinters on this stage.
The Tactics
Definitely not a stage where the race can be won, except in the case of gross negligence from the favourites, so we could see a break of unthreatening riders form a successful winning move here. There are quite a lot of riders down on time, and there so far hasn't been much interest from the sprinter's teams in assuming the mantle of chasing. This was most clearly seen in Stage 1 where no one helped Sky and BMC until the final stages. So unless Movistar get very motivated for a Juan Jose Lobato win, it might be a case of no one wanting to over commit to spending energy. There are others who would consider themselves contenders for this stage, so it may be that Movistar gets some help from the likes of IAM, Etixx-Quickstep and Lampre. I'll add that chasing will be harder over the terrain, with it being quite arduous going, unless there are some strong riders committed to bringing the break back, it will be tough going.
If the break is brought back before the last climb, we should see some attacks from some non-GC threats to try and take the prize of a stage win from the sprinters. Of course, the GC favourites could attack, but the climb isn't really long enough to distance the better climbers, and there is still 8kms to go from the top, which will nullify a lot of moves. In addition riders will want to save their energy for the big stage up Willunga Hill. Again the responsibility of chasing down the attackers will be on the sprinters' teams, and if the chasers are fatigued by this point, the attackers have a decent chance of staying away from a reduced pursuit from the bunch.
The above factors outline why I think that it won't be a sprint for the win on this stage. The sprinters' teams won't have the power or collaboration to bring a strong breakaway back, and even if they do, they will be tired and the opportunists will attack and steal the victory away.
144.5 kms from Glenelg to Mt Barker, with a fair bit of the course going uphill, but at fairly easy gradients, which should mean that it is the sprinters that contest the finish. The only categorised "climb" is to Sellick's Hill, a 5.4 km ascent at 2.3%. There is also plenty of climbing around Macclesfield, in fact there is 19 kms at an average of 2% at one stage, which is sure to sap the legs of many in the peleton. At the pointy end of the stage there is a 800m climb at 7%, which ends with 8kms to go, a pretty big obstacle for the sprinters on this stage.
The Tactics
Definitely not a stage where the race can be won, except in the case of gross negligence from the favourites, so we could see a break of unthreatening riders form a successful winning move here. There are quite a lot of riders down on time, and there so far hasn't been much interest from the sprinter's teams in assuming the mantle of chasing. This was most clearly seen in Stage 1 where no one helped Sky and BMC until the final stages. So unless Movistar get very motivated for a Juan Jose Lobato win, it might be a case of no one wanting to over commit to spending energy. There are others who would consider themselves contenders for this stage, so it may be that Movistar gets some help from the likes of IAM, Etixx-Quickstep and Lampre. I'll add that chasing will be harder over the terrain, with it being quite arduous going, unless there are some strong riders committed to bringing the break back, it will be tough going.
If the break is brought back before the last climb, we should see some attacks from some non-GC threats to try and take the prize of a stage win from the sprinters. Of course, the GC favourites could attack, but the climb isn't really long enough to distance the better climbers, and there is still 8kms to go from the top, which will nullify a lot of moves. In addition riders will want to save their energy for the big stage up Willunga Hill. Again the responsibility of chasing down the attackers will be on the sprinters' teams, and if the chasers are fatigued by this point, the attackers have a decent chance of staying away from a reduced pursuit from the bunch.
The above factors outline why I think that it won't be a sprint for the win on this stage. The sprinters' teams won't have the power or collaboration to bring a strong breakaway back, and even if they do, they will be tired and the opportunists will attack and steal the victory away.
The Contenders
I'll be boring and do the sprint contenders first. Yes they'll be the favourites, but only because it is so hard to pick potential escapees.
Juan Jose Lobato - In great form at the moment (career best?), he's got the climbing ability to stay all the way to the finish, and looks one of the fastest in the bunch at the moment.
Niccolo Bonifazio - This youngster has kicked off his World Tour career in fine fashion, showing that he has both speed and the legs to get over some climbs during more testing days in the saddle.
Gianni Meersman - Does a lot better on finishes which are flat despite his ability to get over hills. Pretty much the perfect stage for Meersman, where he can use his climbing ability to dislodge a number of rivals , but where he doesn't have to sprint uphill.
Others that are worthy of a mention include Haussler, Von Hoff and Sammy Dumoulin.
Next the attackers (if the break is brought back).
Geraint Thomas should be given free reign here, as this stage is very reminiscent of the one he won in 2012 at the TDU. He may be a bit too high up on the GC for the favourites teams to allow him leeway, so he may have to ride in supporte (that's right, support of Porte).
Quite a few others fit the bill, mostly if you feel like you have good legs, aren't on a GC watchlist and don't have to support anyone on your team then the opportunity is there to attack.
So now to pick from the lottery that could win from a breakaway. Calvin Watson, Martin Kohler and Christophe Riblon all have the ability to win from a break, and are far enough back to be of little threat to the GC. I'd expect to see a large number of riders fighting to get in the move though, as many will recognise the chance to get a stage win.
The Verdict
Lars Boom. He is over 5 minutes down on GC, so will be allowed plenty of freedom, but has the quality to win from a break, either by attacking solo or taking it in a sprint. Bear in mind that it is next to impossible to pick who will make a break.
I'll be boring and do the sprint contenders first. Yes they'll be the favourites, but only because it is so hard to pick potential escapees.
Juan Jose Lobato - In great form at the moment (career best?), he's got the climbing ability to stay all the way to the finish, and looks one of the fastest in the bunch at the moment.
Niccolo Bonifazio - This youngster has kicked off his World Tour career in fine fashion, showing that he has both speed and the legs to get over some climbs during more testing days in the saddle.
Gianni Meersman - Does a lot better on finishes which are flat despite his ability to get over hills. Pretty much the perfect stage for Meersman, where he can use his climbing ability to dislodge a number of rivals , but where he doesn't have to sprint uphill.
Others that are worthy of a mention include Haussler, Von Hoff and Sammy Dumoulin.
Next the attackers (if the break is brought back).
Geraint Thomas should be given free reign here, as this stage is very reminiscent of the one he won in 2012 at the TDU. He may be a bit too high up on the GC for the favourites teams to allow him leeway, so he may have to ride in supporte (that's right, support of Porte).
Quite a few others fit the bill, mostly if you feel like you have good legs, aren't on a GC watchlist and don't have to support anyone on your team then the opportunity is there to attack.
So now to pick from the lottery that could win from a breakaway. Calvin Watson, Martin Kohler and Christophe Riblon all have the ability to win from a break, and are far enough back to be of little threat to the GC. I'd expect to see a large number of riders fighting to get in the move though, as many will recognise the chance to get a stage win.
The Verdict
Lars Boom. He is over 5 minutes down on GC, so will be allowed plenty of freedom, but has the quality to win from a break, either by attacking solo or taking it in a sprint. Bear in mind that it is next to impossible to pick who will make a break.