Oooh, it's a good time of year when the Tour Down Under rolls around, and we get competitive racing back on the box. The race has evolved from being a race only for sprinters, then favouring puncheurs, and now it can be won by climbers as well. The last few editions have been exciting, close affairs, with a single second separating Evans and Gerrans last season, whilst the season before Gerrans finished on the same time as Valverde. With Gerrans missing, favouritism sits with Porte and Evans, who finished 3rd and 2nd respectively last time around. Also missing is the man with the most stage wins of anyone in the race's history, Andre Greipel, whose absence will be mourned as he is a fan favourite in Adelaide.
The Course:
It's a combination of short, punchy climbs and rolling terrain for the key GC stages, but as Gerrans showed last year, bonus seconds garnered on the sprint stages are critical to the GC.
There's an extra hilltop finish in this edition however, with the extra benefits that brings for the climbers.
Tactics:
The World Tour teams aren't particularly motivated for this race, outside Australia it doesn't carry much prestige, and indeed most in Europe don't consider the season started yet. Obviously with the exception of Orica-Greenedge and it still has World Tour points, but we don't see many stars targeting this race.
Orica-Greendedge often control the race mostly because they've had Gerrans racing for the GC, but in his absence their DS has said that they'll be focusing on stage wins, and animating the race, which means a more unpredictable style of racing and a better chance for breakaways.
I think Sky will be saddled with the favourite status of chasing the early breaks, that shouldn't be a huge problem with the shorter stages, they'll get help with teams that hold ambitions for each stage.
The strong climbers prefer to stay in touch early and then make up time on Wilunga Hill, but this year there is an extra hilltop finish, so they might not have to limit their options.
Time bonuses vs climbers has been the main battle of the GC in the Tour Down Under, for instance last year Gerrans finished 30 seconds up on Gesink, 26 seconds in time bonuses, with Gesink only losing 4 seconds on the road.
Taking into account each team's lack of inital ambition for the GC, you would think that it might be the right opportunity for a breakaway to win in the manner of Cameron Meyer in 2011. But most stages are suited to the characteristics of a few teams for stage victories, and I doubt we'll see a big break win this race.
It's a combination of short, punchy climbs and rolling terrain for the key GC stages, but as Gerrans showed last year, bonus seconds garnered on the sprint stages are critical to the GC.
There's an extra hilltop finish in this edition however, with the extra benefits that brings for the climbers.
Tactics:
The World Tour teams aren't particularly motivated for this race, outside Australia it doesn't carry much prestige, and indeed most in Europe don't consider the season started yet. Obviously with the exception of Orica-Greenedge and it still has World Tour points, but we don't see many stars targeting this race.
Orica-Greendedge often control the race mostly because they've had Gerrans racing for the GC, but in his absence their DS has said that they'll be focusing on stage wins, and animating the race, which means a more unpredictable style of racing and a better chance for breakaways.
I think Sky will be saddled with the favourite status of chasing the early breaks, that shouldn't be a huge problem with the shorter stages, they'll get help with teams that hold ambitions for each stage.
The strong climbers prefer to stay in touch early and then make up time on Wilunga Hill, but this year there is an extra hilltop finish, so they might not have to limit their options.
Time bonuses vs climbers has been the main battle of the GC in the Tour Down Under, for instance last year Gerrans finished 30 seconds up on Gesink, 26 seconds in time bonuses, with Gesink only losing 4 seconds on the road.
Taking into account each team's lack of inital ambition for the GC, you would think that it might be the right opportunity for a breakaway to win in the manner of Cameron Meyer in 2011. But most stages are suited to the characteristics of a few teams for stage victories, and I doubt we'll see a big break win this race.
Other factors:
The weather in the Adelaide hills has been quite mild recently, but obviously the potential is there for it to be very hot. It's not going to be a huge shock for the riders from Europe, as most have been in Australia for a while. However, obviously there are riders that ride better in the heat, Adam Hansen for instance thrives in hot conditions.
Early season form is arguably the key factor in deciding a winner, obviously if Tom Dumoulin turns up in top form he'd be very hard to beat, but you would assume that he's in preparation for the classics and will be using the race to get in good shape, as will many riders.
Home race bias plays it part in the form debate, with Australian riders a lot more keen to prepare well and be in form this early in the season.
The weather in the Adelaide hills has been quite mild recently, but obviously the potential is there for it to be very hot. It's not going to be a huge shock for the riders from Europe, as most have been in Australia for a while. However, obviously there are riders that ride better in the heat, Adam Hansen for instance thrives in hot conditions.
Early season form is arguably the key factor in deciding a winner, obviously if Tom Dumoulin turns up in top form he'd be very hard to beat, but you would assume that he's in preparation for the classics and will be using the race to get in good shape, as will many riders.
Home race bias plays it part in the form debate, with Australian riders a lot more keen to prepare well and be in form this early in the season.
Contenders:
Cadel Evans (2nd 2014)
Richie Porte (3rd 2014)
Adam Hansen (9th 2014, 16th 2013, 27th 2012)
Simon Clarke
Gorka Izagirre (7th 2013)
Michael Rogers (4th 2012, 1st 2002)
Domenico Pozzovivo
Biel Kadri (8th 2011)
Tom Dumoulin (preparation?)
Cameron Meyer (1st 2011)
Daryl Impey (7th 2014)
Tiago Machado (3rd 2012)
Geraint Thomas (8th 2014, 3rd 2013)
Luis Leon Sanchez (1st 2005, 2nd 2010)
George Bennett (15th 2013)
David de la Cruz
Jarlinson Pantano
Nathan Haas (5th 2014)
Axel Domont
Included on this list is everyone that comes into my podium calculations. Obviously, it's a longer list than I would like, but with these early races, there's little form to go off, and not too much noise in the media, especially from the European teams about who are their protected riders.
Some who have shown good form are Evans, Porte, Hansen and Clarke, who all rode well at the road race, with Porte also taking the national time trials title.
Others are often good early in the season generally, like Luis Leon Sanchez, Daryl Impey, Tiago Machado and Geraint Thomas. Others didn't make the list because of their slow starting nature, Giampaolo Caruso and Simon Geschke would have been in there otherwise.
And finally I've opted for some younger talents as well, who might fly under the radar and win like Tom-Jelte Slagter in 2013 or Cameron Meyer in 2011. Axel Domont, Jarlinson Pantano, George Bennet and David de la Cruz are people who have a good future ahead of them in cycling and could win the race from an aggresive break that the peleton doesn't mark because they aren't one of the big favourites.
And now for selecting a winner... Daryl Impey. I think we'll see a Gerrans style victory for the South African with him picking up critical bonus seconds on some of the sprint stages, winning the stages to Stirling and Paracombe and then staying close enough on Wilunga. So now that's definitely not going to happen, I'll round on the podium with climbers, and the top 10 with likely types.
1. Daryl Impey
2. Richie Porte
3. Cadel Evans
4. Domenico Pozzovivo
5. Adam Hansen
6. Tiago Machado
7. Nathan Haas
8. Luis Leon Sanchez
9. Geraint Thomas
10. George Bennett
Cadel Evans (2nd 2014)
Richie Porte (3rd 2014)
Adam Hansen (9th 2014, 16th 2013, 27th 2012)
Simon Clarke
Gorka Izagirre (7th 2013)
Michael Rogers (4th 2012, 1st 2002)
Domenico Pozzovivo
Biel Kadri (8th 2011)
Tom Dumoulin (preparation?)
Cameron Meyer (1st 2011)
Daryl Impey (7th 2014)
Tiago Machado (3rd 2012)
Geraint Thomas (8th 2014, 3rd 2013)
Luis Leon Sanchez (1st 2005, 2nd 2010)
George Bennett (15th 2013)
David de la Cruz
Jarlinson Pantano
Nathan Haas (5th 2014)
Axel Domont
Included on this list is everyone that comes into my podium calculations. Obviously, it's a longer list than I would like, but with these early races, there's little form to go off, and not too much noise in the media, especially from the European teams about who are their protected riders.
Some who have shown good form are Evans, Porte, Hansen and Clarke, who all rode well at the road race, with Porte also taking the national time trials title.
Others are often good early in the season generally, like Luis Leon Sanchez, Daryl Impey, Tiago Machado and Geraint Thomas. Others didn't make the list because of their slow starting nature, Giampaolo Caruso and Simon Geschke would have been in there otherwise.
And finally I've opted for some younger talents as well, who might fly under the radar and win like Tom-Jelte Slagter in 2013 or Cameron Meyer in 2011. Axel Domont, Jarlinson Pantano, George Bennet and David de la Cruz are people who have a good future ahead of them in cycling and could win the race from an aggresive break that the peleton doesn't mark because they aren't one of the big favourites.
And now for selecting a winner... Daryl Impey. I think we'll see a Gerrans style victory for the South African with him picking up critical bonus seconds on some of the sprint stages, winning the stages to Stirling and Paracombe and then staying close enough on Wilunga. So now that's definitely not going to happen, I'll round on the podium with climbers, and the top 10 with likely types.
1. Daryl Impey
2. Richie Porte
3. Cadel Evans
4. Domenico Pozzovivo
5. Adam Hansen
6. Tiago Machado
7. Nathan Haas
8. Luis Leon Sanchez
9. Geraint Thomas
10. George Bennett
Sprinters:
Marcel Kittel
Chris Sutton
Greg Henderson
Juan Jose Lobato
Giacomo Nizzolo
Barry Markus
Mark Renshaw
Gianni Meersman
Heinrich Haussler
Roberto Ferrari
Nicola Bonifazio
Steele Von Hoff (riding for UniSA, not for NFTO)
One look at this list and there's the obvious standout of Marcel Kittel, and if he wants to win you would think that he would wipe the floor with the opposition. That hasn't been the past experience however, with Kittel not contesting a stage last year (best finish 72nd), apart from the opening People's Classic, which he won.
The stages are not straightforward either, whilst stages 1 and 6 don't offer much in the way of hills, Kittel will struggle on the other stages. So it's more open than a cursory look would indicate.
Of the rest, Nizzolo, Ferrari and Renshaw are the quickest and should enjoy the support of their teams. Stage 4 is for the sprinters who can get over a few hills, and in that the contenders will be Haussler, Meersman, Lobato and Von Hoff. Whilst stage 2 often comes down to a sprint, it's preceded by a nasty climb, which means that it is contested by the puncheurs.
I'll take a more detailed look at each stage as it comes, so for now it will suffice to say that I expect the stage wins to be shared around.
Marcel Kittel
Chris Sutton
Greg Henderson
Juan Jose Lobato
Giacomo Nizzolo
Barry Markus
Mark Renshaw
Gianni Meersman
Heinrich Haussler
Roberto Ferrari
Nicola Bonifazio
Steele Von Hoff (riding for UniSA, not for NFTO)
One look at this list and there's the obvious standout of Marcel Kittel, and if he wants to win you would think that he would wipe the floor with the opposition. That hasn't been the past experience however, with Kittel not contesting a stage last year (best finish 72nd), apart from the opening People's Classic, which he won.
The stages are not straightforward either, whilst stages 1 and 6 don't offer much in the way of hills, Kittel will struggle on the other stages. So it's more open than a cursory look would indicate.
Of the rest, Nizzolo, Ferrari and Renshaw are the quickest and should enjoy the support of their teams. Stage 4 is for the sprinters who can get over a few hills, and in that the contenders will be Haussler, Meersman, Lobato and Von Hoff. Whilst stage 2 often comes down to a sprint, it's preceded by a nasty climb, which means that it is contested by the puncheurs.
I'll take a more detailed look at each stage as it comes, so for now it will suffice to say that I expect the stage wins to be shared around.
Well that's a wrap. Hopefully another great edition of the TDU, small time gaps, attacking racing and the fans lining the road.