The Tour De Suisse in recent years has attracted a slightly less star-studded lineup, and it continues this season, but there will still be plenty of top-quality riders vying for the win in the premier Swiss race. It is an interesting route this year, with only one big stage for the climbers, but it is fearsome enough by itself that it will ensure that it is only the climbers that contest the GC.
The Course
Stage 1- A short 5.1 kms prologue won't force any huge splits in the field. It is held on a fairly technical urban circuit, cut should be one for the specialists, with long roads separating the technical section. Winner pick: Tom Dumoulin
Stage 2- A larger circuit and a smaller one for this very tough hilly sprint stage. It may be an early one for the GC contenders, as the climb on the finishing circuit is really hard, but if the peleton doesn't go up it too hard, it will be a stage for the breakaway or the sprint. Winner pick: Michael Albasini
Stage 3- A very short stage at 117.3 kms, with an early climb likely to prove hard, a late climb and a steady rising road for the last 15 kms. Winner pick: Peter Sagan
Stage 4- One for the purer sprinters on this stage, as the circuit at the finishing town isn't so hard, but does finish on an uphill slope. Not that attackers are ruled out entirely from this stage, it may come down to the relative strength of the domestiques on this stage. Winner pick: Peter Sagan
Stage 5- Stage 5 is indisputably the queen stage for this race and the Rettenbachferner (12.1 kms 10.7%) is such an infernal climb that it will probably be the only deciding factor in the race. It concludes the stage as a summit finish. Winner pick: Thibaut Pinot
Stage 6- A lumpy stage which shouldn't restrict the sprinters form taking a win. Winner pick: Alexander Kristoff
Stage 7- An easier sprint stage. Winner pick: Mark Cavendish
Stage 8- Four laps of a 38.7 kms stage for 152.5 kms in total (yes 4 x 38.7 doesn't equal 152.5, there's one extended lap) over a challenging hilly circuit, which will probably be a stage for the attackers or strong sprinters. Winner pick: Michael Albasini
Stage 9- The final stage is a 38.4 TT over a mostly flat course with a few short, hard climbs. Winner pick: Tom Dumoulin
Stage 1- A short 5.1 kms prologue won't force any huge splits in the field. It is held on a fairly technical urban circuit, cut should be one for the specialists, with long roads separating the technical section. Winner pick: Tom Dumoulin
Stage 2- A larger circuit and a smaller one for this very tough hilly sprint stage. It may be an early one for the GC contenders, as the climb on the finishing circuit is really hard, but if the peleton doesn't go up it too hard, it will be a stage for the breakaway or the sprint. Winner pick: Michael Albasini
Stage 3- A very short stage at 117.3 kms, with an early climb likely to prove hard, a late climb and a steady rising road for the last 15 kms. Winner pick: Peter Sagan
Stage 4- One for the purer sprinters on this stage, as the circuit at the finishing town isn't so hard, but does finish on an uphill slope. Not that attackers are ruled out entirely from this stage, it may come down to the relative strength of the domestiques on this stage. Winner pick: Peter Sagan
Stage 5- Stage 5 is indisputably the queen stage for this race and the Rettenbachferner (12.1 kms 10.7%) is such an infernal climb that it will probably be the only deciding factor in the race. It concludes the stage as a summit finish. Winner pick: Thibaut Pinot
Stage 6- A lumpy stage which shouldn't restrict the sprinters form taking a win. Winner pick: Alexander Kristoff
Stage 7- An easier sprint stage. Winner pick: Mark Cavendish
Stage 8- Four laps of a 38.7 kms stage for 152.5 kms in total (yes 4 x 38.7 doesn't equal 152.5, there's one extended lap) over a challenging hilly circuit, which will probably be a stage for the attackers or strong sprinters. Winner pick: Michael Albasini
Stage 9- The final stage is a 38.4 TT over a mostly flat course with a few short, hard climbs. Winner pick: Tom Dumoulin
The Tactics
The Tour de Suisse often oscillates between being one for the climbers and one for the time-triallists, with more often aspects of both discplines being required to win. There is only one big mountain stage, but the Rettenbachferner (12.1 kms, 10.7% will drop all but the best climbers as it is a hellish climb. I can't see the top time triallists like Dumoulin and Cancellara staying close enough to take it back in the TT, but the TT will affect the result. TT ability fluctuates quite a bit amongst the top climbers here, and it could be a circumstance with the overall lead changing on the last day.
There are a few teams that could realistically look to target the intermediate stages for time gains towards the overall, Stages 1, 2 and 8 could be stages when the cyclists that aren't geared to classics-style racing could lose time to the likes of Pozzovivo, Moreno, Dumoulin and Chaves. There are also a lot of climby sprinters who are tuning up for the Tour de France, Sagan, Matthews, Degenkolb and Kristoff are all present and that should help keep the race together for the most part, and keep any unlikely breakaways winning.
The Tour de Suisse often oscillates between being one for the climbers and one for the time-triallists, with more often aspects of both discplines being required to win. There is only one big mountain stage, but the Rettenbachferner (12.1 kms, 10.7% will drop all but the best climbers as it is a hellish climb. I can't see the top time triallists like Dumoulin and Cancellara staying close enough to take it back in the TT, but the TT will affect the result. TT ability fluctuates quite a bit amongst the top climbers here, and it could be a circumstance with the overall lead changing on the last day.
There are a few teams that could realistically look to target the intermediate stages for time gains towards the overall, Stages 1, 2 and 8 could be stages when the cyclists that aren't geared to classics-style racing could lose time to the likes of Pozzovivo, Moreno, Dumoulin and Chaves. There are also a lot of climby sprinters who are tuning up for the Tour de France, Sagan, Matthews, Degenkolb and Kristoff are all present and that should help keep the race together for the most part, and keep any unlikely breakaways winning.
The Contenders
Thibaut Pinot comes into this race as the favourite, with his good performances in the early season races (4th in Romandie, won the queen stage, 2nd Criterium International, 4th Tirreno, 10th Pais Vasco) and his likely good form with the Tour de France fast approaching. He is the strongest climber here, and should shine on the very steep Rettenbachferner, and is an improved time-triallist. He will definitely lose time to the likes of Dumoulin and Spilak, maybe Pozzovivo as well.
Simon Spilak started off his season in typical hot form, finishing 3rd in Paris-Nice, 2nd in Romandie and 12th in Pais Vasco. He always achieves his best results in the first part of the year however, last year for instance, he was 85th in the Dauphine and then DNF'ed the Tour after similar form to this season. He has decided to try and change his second half woes by switching up his schedule a bit. This time he has decided to ignore the first two Grand Tours, and will instead ride the Vuelta, and will presumably take a break after Suisse to then build later for that goal. Maybe that will mean that he has better form on a course that should suit him very well. The hilly, long TT is right up his alley, he could well be in the top 5 on the stage, and take significant time on the climbers. Which isn't to say he's not a top climber, he'll be right up there with the best on the Rettenbachferner.
Domenico Pozzovivo is back in racing after his horrific crash in the Giro, and it seems almost a bit soon for the tiny Italian after his nasty injuries. On the face of it, the Retternbachferner will suit his power-weight ratio, and he can pull out really impressive time-trials on the hilly TT circuits, though it is a little bit hit and miss. Surely it is too soon for him, after sitting in a hospital bed for a week and then off his bike for another few?
Geraint Thomas would never be considered for a race like this in previous years, but it is clear that he has taken on a new set of climbing legs this season, taking the win in Algarve before finishing 4th in Paris-Nice. He is also really good at the cobbled classics, and there aren't many cyclists who combine a cobbles campaign with stage race GC ambitions, and that might mean that he doesn't have quite the single-minded approach that many others take into targeting certain races. On the other hand, one of his big ambitions for this season is the Tour de France, where he hopes to do well early personally, before assisting Froome in the GC. He will have some pretty good legs in that case, and should be nicely suited to the final day's TT, where I would expect him to be Top 3 on the stage. Whether he can stay close enough on Stage 5 is the big question.
Jakob Fuglsang is a rider of undoubted ability, having ridden very well as a domestique in a number of Nibali's Grand Tour victories, and achieving some decent results in one week races. He hasn't taken that breakthrough win yet, but he gets a good chance here, as he is the sort of all-round rider that could take time on the hilly days, up the mountain or in the TT. Look out for him on the classics-style stages, as he was very aggressive in both the Amstel Gold Race and Liege-Bastogne-Liege.
Rafal Majka is a hard rider to follow, with many expecting him to really tee off this year as a team leader after his superb Giro/Tour de France/Poland performances last season. He started off the season well with 4th in Oman, before disappointing with 68th in Paris-Nice, DNF in Catalunya and 15th in Pais Vasco. His 7th in Romandie was a return to form, finishing in front of riders like Quintana, Bardet and Nibali, and also doing a good TT in the process. Again, he is another who is suited to the course, it is just a question of where his form is at, as he has not raced since Romandie. He will ride the Tour in support of Contdor, but his real focus is on the Vuelta, and probably also on defending his title on home soil in Poland in the lead-up. He won't to be in peak form at the start of such a hard block of racing so I can't see him winning here.
Tom Dumoulin is the joker here, the big question being whether he can get up the Rettenbachferner in a time that lets him be competitive in the final TT. He will definitely lose time, the question is how much, and on these really steep slopes I think it will be too much for the powerful Dutchman. He has improved his climbing, he was 4th in the Tour Down Under, with Dennis, Porte and Evans, all noted climbers, finishing above him. He also took the Pais Vasco TT, which included a really tough double ascent of the brutally steep Aia climb, so hard that Joaquim Rodriguez was able to take 2nd on the day. I still think it is too hard for him, but I would love to see a breakout performance from him, as I believe he has a huge future in the sport.
Thibaut Pinot comes into this race as the favourite, with his good performances in the early season races (4th in Romandie, won the queen stage, 2nd Criterium International, 4th Tirreno, 10th Pais Vasco) and his likely good form with the Tour de France fast approaching. He is the strongest climber here, and should shine on the very steep Rettenbachferner, and is an improved time-triallist. He will definitely lose time to the likes of Dumoulin and Spilak, maybe Pozzovivo as well.
Simon Spilak started off his season in typical hot form, finishing 3rd in Paris-Nice, 2nd in Romandie and 12th in Pais Vasco. He always achieves his best results in the first part of the year however, last year for instance, he was 85th in the Dauphine and then DNF'ed the Tour after similar form to this season. He has decided to try and change his second half woes by switching up his schedule a bit. This time he has decided to ignore the first two Grand Tours, and will instead ride the Vuelta, and will presumably take a break after Suisse to then build later for that goal. Maybe that will mean that he has better form on a course that should suit him very well. The hilly, long TT is right up his alley, he could well be in the top 5 on the stage, and take significant time on the climbers. Which isn't to say he's not a top climber, he'll be right up there with the best on the Rettenbachferner.
Domenico Pozzovivo is back in racing after his horrific crash in the Giro, and it seems almost a bit soon for the tiny Italian after his nasty injuries. On the face of it, the Retternbachferner will suit his power-weight ratio, and he can pull out really impressive time-trials on the hilly TT circuits, though it is a little bit hit and miss. Surely it is too soon for him, after sitting in a hospital bed for a week and then off his bike for another few?
Geraint Thomas would never be considered for a race like this in previous years, but it is clear that he has taken on a new set of climbing legs this season, taking the win in Algarve before finishing 4th in Paris-Nice. He is also really good at the cobbled classics, and there aren't many cyclists who combine a cobbles campaign with stage race GC ambitions, and that might mean that he doesn't have quite the single-minded approach that many others take into targeting certain races. On the other hand, one of his big ambitions for this season is the Tour de France, where he hopes to do well early personally, before assisting Froome in the GC. He will have some pretty good legs in that case, and should be nicely suited to the final day's TT, where I would expect him to be Top 3 on the stage. Whether he can stay close enough on Stage 5 is the big question.
Jakob Fuglsang is a rider of undoubted ability, having ridden very well as a domestique in a number of Nibali's Grand Tour victories, and achieving some decent results in one week races. He hasn't taken that breakthrough win yet, but he gets a good chance here, as he is the sort of all-round rider that could take time on the hilly days, up the mountain or in the TT. Look out for him on the classics-style stages, as he was very aggressive in both the Amstel Gold Race and Liege-Bastogne-Liege.
Rafal Majka is a hard rider to follow, with many expecting him to really tee off this year as a team leader after his superb Giro/Tour de France/Poland performances last season. He started off the season well with 4th in Oman, before disappointing with 68th in Paris-Nice, DNF in Catalunya and 15th in Pais Vasco. His 7th in Romandie was a return to form, finishing in front of riders like Quintana, Bardet and Nibali, and also doing a good TT in the process. Again, he is another who is suited to the course, it is just a question of where his form is at, as he has not raced since Romandie. He will ride the Tour in support of Contdor, but his real focus is on the Vuelta, and probably also on defending his title on home soil in Poland in the lead-up. He won't to be in peak form at the start of such a hard block of racing so I can't see him winning here.
Tom Dumoulin is the joker here, the big question being whether he can get up the Rettenbachferner in a time that lets him be competitive in the final TT. He will definitely lose time, the question is how much, and on these really steep slopes I think it will be too much for the powerful Dutchman. He has improved his climbing, he was 4th in the Tour Down Under, with Dennis, Porte and Evans, all noted climbers, finishing above him. He also took the Pais Vasco TT, which included a really tough double ascent of the brutally steep Aia climb, so hard that Joaquim Rodriguez was able to take 2nd on the day. I still think it is too hard for him, but I would love to see a breakout performance from him, as I believe he has a huge future in the sport.
Rider to Watch: One of those segments I hope to introduce once I am full-time at this thing. I use a random number generator to pick a rider who I (hopefully) wouldn't normally talk about, and thus expand both your and my knowledge of cycling. Thankfully (though it doesn't really do the job it set out to do), the random number generator came up with 178, a rider I am quite familiar with in Grega Bole.
Grega Bole is a sprinter from CCC-Sprandi Polowice who excels in the uphill sprints, and also on medium mountains days that end in a sprint. He has had a decent 2015 season, but it will perhaps have fallen short of his ambitions, as he will no doubt be looking to achieve the best results of his career whilst he is in his prime. What has impressed me most about his 2015 season has been the increase in his climbing, particularly in stages 2 and 11 of the Giro, where he stayed with the main group over some hard mountains to contest the finish.
He will suited to quite a few stages here, and he will definitely be in the mix on stages 3, 4, 7 and 8 and maybe even stage 2 depending on how his legs feel. He doesn't have the best team to support him however, which may be the difference between a win and another respectable top-10 performance. He will also miss the presence of teammate and roommate Maciej Paterski, with whom he has formed a significant partnership and has been a part of his biggest race successes. Also, there are a ton of riders that are faster than him and with very similar strengths in Sagan, Matthews, Degenkolb and Kristoff.
Grega Bole is a sprinter from CCC-Sprandi Polowice who excels in the uphill sprints, and also on medium mountains days that end in a sprint. He has had a decent 2015 season, but it will perhaps have fallen short of his ambitions, as he will no doubt be looking to achieve the best results of his career whilst he is in his prime. What has impressed me most about his 2015 season has been the increase in his climbing, particularly in stages 2 and 11 of the Giro, where he stayed with the main group over some hard mountains to contest the finish.
He will suited to quite a few stages here, and he will definitely be in the mix on stages 3, 4, 7 and 8 and maybe even stage 2 depending on how his legs feel. He doesn't have the best team to support him however, which may be the difference between a win and another respectable top-10 performance. He will also miss the presence of teammate and roommate Maciej Paterski, with whom he has formed a significant partnership and has been a part of his biggest race successes. Also, there are a ton of riders that are faster than him and with very similar strengths in Sagan, Matthews, Degenkolb and Kristoff.
The Verdict
A tough one here, but I see the Russian Simon Spilak as the top contender for this race, he doesn't have any of the top climbers here to beat him, and as long as he's within a minute of Pinot, Pozzovivo, etc. on the mountains, he should be able to overcome that in the TT.
A tough one here, but I see the Russian Simon Spilak as the top contender for this race, he doesn't have any of the top climbers here to beat him, and as long as he's within a minute of Pinot, Pozzovivo, etc. on the mountains, he should be able to overcome that in the TT.