The Mur de Bretagne has only two appearances at the Tour de France, most recently in 2011, when Cadel Evans foreshadowed his future success by beating Contador in a sprint from a small group. It will be interesting to see if this trend of identifying future Tour winners continues.
The Course
Again, it is a stage more reminiscent of a classics race than a mountains day, and the final climb is more suited to explosive riders than pure climbers. The climbing during the day is pretty easy, and no one will be dropped into the final kilometres of the race. The lead-in to the Mur de Bretagne isn't easy however, and in 2011 the field was already feeling the strain by the base of the Mur, as the run-in is on tough, technical terrain, and it will be important for the teams of the favourites to get their riders to the front, so that they start on equal terms with their rivals.
The Mur itself is steepest at the start, averaging 9.8% for the first kilometre, before flattening off, with the final 500m being almost false flat. That doesn't necessarily mean it is one for the fast men today however, as the climb clearly takes the punch out of the legs of the less hardy riders. Thor Hushovd and Phillipe Gilbert were present in the front group in 2011 but were beaten in a sprint by Evans and Contador, something that would never happen in normal circumstances.
Again, it is a stage more reminiscent of a classics race than a mountains day, and the final climb is more suited to explosive riders than pure climbers. The climbing during the day is pretty easy, and no one will be dropped into the final kilometres of the race. The lead-in to the Mur de Bretagne isn't easy however, and in 2011 the field was already feeling the strain by the base of the Mur, as the run-in is on tough, technical terrain, and it will be important for the teams of the favourites to get their riders to the front, so that they start on equal terms with their rivals.
The Mur itself is steepest at the start, averaging 9.8% for the first kilometre, before flattening off, with the final 500m being almost false flat. That doesn't necessarily mean it is one for the fast men today however, as the climb clearly takes the punch out of the legs of the less hardy riders. Thor Hushovd and Phillipe Gilbert were present in the front group in 2011 but were beaten in a sprint by Evans and Contador, something that would never happen in normal circumstances.
The Tactics
It is hard to separate this stage and climb from the Mur de Huy finish on stage 3. and they are very similar with little climbing throughout the stage, followed by a short summit finish in the finale. This climb is more unpredictable than Mur de Huy, which has its hardest gradients closer to the line and generally goes to the strongest climber. Here, the hardest gradients are early, and after that the climbing really levels off with the final kilometre under 4%. This leads me to suggest that it will be one of two scenarios, either a rider escapes on the hardest sections and maintains that into the line, or it comes down to a sprint from a small group. The reasons for this prediction are due to the likely dynamics of group cooperation in this situation and the gradual flattening of the gradient.
One man could prove himself the strongest and maintain a gap into the finish, as the riders behind squabble over who is prepared to do the work in the chase. Most teams only really have one rider who can make it up this climb with the other favourites, maybe Sagan, Valverde and Fuglsang can do some domestique work. but I think it more likely that riders are going to be isolated, and taking on the burden of following attacks themselves. That isolation tends to stymie cooperation, as using energy to drive the group directly benefits the rivals present, and can hurt if there is no help given in return. A single rider attacking is much more motivated to expend his energy, as he is just working for himself.
A small group sprint is also likely, in the event that all attacks are marked, and the contenders decide to save their energy for the final run to the line. In this scenario, I think it quite likely that there will be a general regrouping, maybe even to a largish group of 20-30 riders, as the final kilometre is really not too hard, and some of the stronger sprinters could limit their losses on the steep parts and then catch a group of favourites that has essentially stalemated. To my mind this is less likely, as there are quite a few classics riders present who aren't going to be marked by the favourites for the GC, and will probably be allowed to ride away for the stage.
It is hard to separate this stage and climb from the Mur de Huy finish on stage 3. and they are very similar with little climbing throughout the stage, followed by a short summit finish in the finale. This climb is more unpredictable than Mur de Huy, which has its hardest gradients closer to the line and generally goes to the strongest climber. Here, the hardest gradients are early, and after that the climbing really levels off with the final kilometre under 4%. This leads me to suggest that it will be one of two scenarios, either a rider escapes on the hardest sections and maintains that into the line, or it comes down to a sprint from a small group. The reasons for this prediction are due to the likely dynamics of group cooperation in this situation and the gradual flattening of the gradient.
One man could prove himself the strongest and maintain a gap into the finish, as the riders behind squabble over who is prepared to do the work in the chase. Most teams only really have one rider who can make it up this climb with the other favourites, maybe Sagan, Valverde and Fuglsang can do some domestique work. but I think it more likely that riders are going to be isolated, and taking on the burden of following attacks themselves. That isolation tends to stymie cooperation, as using energy to drive the group directly benefits the rivals present, and can hurt if there is no help given in return. A single rider attacking is much more motivated to expend his energy, as he is just working for himself.
A small group sprint is also likely, in the event that all attacks are marked, and the contenders decide to save their energy for the final run to the line. In this scenario, I think it quite likely that there will be a general regrouping, maybe even to a largish group of 20-30 riders, as the final kilometre is really not too hard, and some of the stronger sprinters could limit their losses on the steep parts and then catch a group of favourites that has essentially stalemated. To my mind this is less likely, as there are quite a few classics riders present who aren't going to be marked by the favourites for the GC, and will probably be allowed to ride away for the stage.
Local Trivia
Rennes, the starting city for today's race is the 10th largest city by population in France. It is a home of a large part of the technology and development sector of France and is regarded as one of the best cities to live in.
Rennes, the starting city for today's race is the 10th largest city by population in France. It is a home of a large part of the technology and development sector of France and is regarded as one of the best cities to live in.
The Contenders
Joaquim Rodriguez should probably go in with the favourites tag here after winning up the Mur de Huy. He has a punchy ability on the climbs that most of the other favourites don't possess, so the short climb really plays into his hands. On the other hand, the flatter terrain in the last terrain won't suit his power-weight ratio style of climbing as he is really quite light, and doesn't have the same raw power as some others here, which becomes more important as the road becomes shallower. He doesn't have a bad sprint for a GC guy though, so if it comes down to battle of just the top GC guys, he can take it in a sprint.
Daniel Martin is less pure climber than Rodriguez, and he can make the difference on the flat as well as he does on the hills, as he has shown in the classics in the past. He was 4th on the Mur de Huy, but was coming fast at the end, and might have been a result more of his poor positioning than his climbing legs. That could be a problem for him on this stage as well however, the run-in to the bottom of the climb is important as it gets straight into the toughest slopes at the foot of the Mur, so his team will want to improve their work here. He is already quite a way down on GC, and he isn't really considered a top-tier candidate for GC anyway, so he'll be given more freedom than most for the stage win. He is particularly adept at identifying circumstances where tactical stalemates allow him to attack, as he showed in the Giro di Lombardia last season, and he has the tools to do very well, so I think he's a likely winner candidate here.
Alexis Vuillermoz was very strong on the Mur de Huy, both in Stage 3 and in Fleche, where he finished 3rd and 6th respectively. He clearly has the freedom to pursue his own objectives here, and doesn't have to wait for Bardet or Peraud. He is strong on these steep, short climbs and he won't be marked by the favourites, as he isn't an overall threat. He is a very light rider, so I wouldn't back him in a sprint, his best chance is to try and arrive by himself.
Tony Gallopin was very impressive on Mur de Huy (5th), I personally didn't expect him to do too well, but he proved me wrong on the steep slopes. This climb is easier, and he is another one that could make use of a tactical stalemate to attack and go to the line. On the other hand, he does have a good sprint, so he may just opt to sit on and try to win in a sprint. My problem with Gallopin is that he hasn't really shown that he has the experience or the tactical nous to win where he isn't the strongest rider. After Stage 4, he gave an interview where he said he had the same move as stagewinner Martin in mind, but planned to do it later. Which was pretty dumb, the peleton was just ambling along, and there was no organisation on the front, that's the moment to attack, just as Martin did, not wait for an arbitrary point.
Chris Froome was very strong on the Mur de Huy, which was surprising, as he doesn't have a great history of being strong in explosive efforts on the shorter climbs. Maybe it's a string he's added to his bow, and if he is feeling good again today, he will probably again go on the attack to put some more time into his rivals. The main thing that I see going against him is the flattening gradient, and the fact that the he is probably the one rider that everyone will cooperate to bring back at this stage of the race.
Tejay Van Garderen similarly surprised in Stage 3, taking third, when expected to be not up there with the top specialists. He might be looking at this stage as a good opportunity to take yellow as well, he is 13 seconds off Froome at the moment, if he takes the stage win with a gap, that jersey will likely be his. He won't be as marked as some of the other riders, and he rides with an attacking mindset, so he could be a surprise winner here.
Alejandro Valverde would normally be the top favourite for a stage like this, but he seems to be taking his role of team helper for Quintana very seriously, shepherding the young Colombian around rather than pursuing his own goals on stages where he could have shone, particularly Stages 3 and 4.
Alberto Contador was 2nd here in 2011, coincidentally also after winning the Giro earlier in the season (later stripped, as a doping ban was retroactively enforced). He rode that day in a fairly attacking style, but he lacked the punch to really drop anyone, and was eventually just beaten by Evans in the sprint. He was off the pace on the Mur de Huy, but he is one of the few riders here that has knowledge of this climb, and he will use that knowledge to the best of his advantage.
Vincenzo Nibali is another who was left behind by Froome on the Mur de Huy, perhaps disappointingly for the Italian, as he would have expected to be better than Brit on parcours like that. I'm not sure I can see him turning that around today, and even if he can, he will be heavily marked.
The Yates twins will be up for this stage, trying to turn around what has been a pretty disastrous Tour to date for the team. Simon Yates has been the better of the twins this season, after Adam was taken down with injury after taking 5th overall in Tirreno. Simon was again the strongest on Mur de Huy, impressively finishing 8th after crashing earlier in the stage. This stage is easier, and I think it likely that they will be able to keep in touch with the main riders up the initial climb, given the ability that they have shown so far this season, and from there it will be about making a good attack. This is where the Yates' brothers perhaps miss a bit of experience, but that is really being harsh, as they are young, and their results are really impressive. I'd say Simon has a good chance this stage, for whatever reason, he has been riding better recently, but there is very little to pick between the two.
Peter Sagan is certainly a threat on this stage as well, but he has shown that he is working first and foremost for Contador, and if he can hold on, he will probably have to work for his team leader. On the other hand, if he arrives at the finish with the front group he will almost definitely win the sprint. The problem with that is anyone with stage ambitions isn't going to want to sprint against Sagan, so it's a very fine line that the Slovakian champ is going to have to tread to win the stage.
Zdenek Stybar showed the blueprint for the escape-and-watch-the-chasers-squabble-behind plan in Stage 6 to Le Havre, and whilst I expect the climbing to be too hard for him here, he isn't without a shot. He is a very strong rider, and if he has a particularly good day, he could be in touch or close enough after the steep section and then carry out his plan again. I think the more likely scenario is that Rigoberto Uran is the rider that can do something here, he was 4th on this stage in 2011, and he looks to be in really, surprisingly good form after a tough Giro, so he could be inline to continue Etixx's great Tour.
Joaquim Rodriguez should probably go in with the favourites tag here after winning up the Mur de Huy. He has a punchy ability on the climbs that most of the other favourites don't possess, so the short climb really plays into his hands. On the other hand, the flatter terrain in the last terrain won't suit his power-weight ratio style of climbing as he is really quite light, and doesn't have the same raw power as some others here, which becomes more important as the road becomes shallower. He doesn't have a bad sprint for a GC guy though, so if it comes down to battle of just the top GC guys, he can take it in a sprint.
Daniel Martin is less pure climber than Rodriguez, and he can make the difference on the flat as well as he does on the hills, as he has shown in the classics in the past. He was 4th on the Mur de Huy, but was coming fast at the end, and might have been a result more of his poor positioning than his climbing legs. That could be a problem for him on this stage as well however, the run-in to the bottom of the climb is important as it gets straight into the toughest slopes at the foot of the Mur, so his team will want to improve their work here. He is already quite a way down on GC, and he isn't really considered a top-tier candidate for GC anyway, so he'll be given more freedom than most for the stage win. He is particularly adept at identifying circumstances where tactical stalemates allow him to attack, as he showed in the Giro di Lombardia last season, and he has the tools to do very well, so I think he's a likely winner candidate here.
Alexis Vuillermoz was very strong on the Mur de Huy, both in Stage 3 and in Fleche, where he finished 3rd and 6th respectively. He clearly has the freedom to pursue his own objectives here, and doesn't have to wait for Bardet or Peraud. He is strong on these steep, short climbs and he won't be marked by the favourites, as he isn't an overall threat. He is a very light rider, so I wouldn't back him in a sprint, his best chance is to try and arrive by himself.
Tony Gallopin was very impressive on Mur de Huy (5th), I personally didn't expect him to do too well, but he proved me wrong on the steep slopes. This climb is easier, and he is another one that could make use of a tactical stalemate to attack and go to the line. On the other hand, he does have a good sprint, so he may just opt to sit on and try to win in a sprint. My problem with Gallopin is that he hasn't really shown that he has the experience or the tactical nous to win where he isn't the strongest rider. After Stage 4, he gave an interview where he said he had the same move as stagewinner Martin in mind, but planned to do it later. Which was pretty dumb, the peleton was just ambling along, and there was no organisation on the front, that's the moment to attack, just as Martin did, not wait for an arbitrary point.
Chris Froome was very strong on the Mur de Huy, which was surprising, as he doesn't have a great history of being strong in explosive efforts on the shorter climbs. Maybe it's a string he's added to his bow, and if he is feeling good again today, he will probably again go on the attack to put some more time into his rivals. The main thing that I see going against him is the flattening gradient, and the fact that the he is probably the one rider that everyone will cooperate to bring back at this stage of the race.
Tejay Van Garderen similarly surprised in Stage 3, taking third, when expected to be not up there with the top specialists. He might be looking at this stage as a good opportunity to take yellow as well, he is 13 seconds off Froome at the moment, if he takes the stage win with a gap, that jersey will likely be his. He won't be as marked as some of the other riders, and he rides with an attacking mindset, so he could be a surprise winner here.
Alejandro Valverde would normally be the top favourite for a stage like this, but he seems to be taking his role of team helper for Quintana very seriously, shepherding the young Colombian around rather than pursuing his own goals on stages where he could have shone, particularly Stages 3 and 4.
Alberto Contador was 2nd here in 2011, coincidentally also after winning the Giro earlier in the season (later stripped, as a doping ban was retroactively enforced). He rode that day in a fairly attacking style, but he lacked the punch to really drop anyone, and was eventually just beaten by Evans in the sprint. He was off the pace on the Mur de Huy, but he is one of the few riders here that has knowledge of this climb, and he will use that knowledge to the best of his advantage.
Vincenzo Nibali is another who was left behind by Froome on the Mur de Huy, perhaps disappointingly for the Italian, as he would have expected to be better than Brit on parcours like that. I'm not sure I can see him turning that around today, and even if he can, he will be heavily marked.
The Yates twins will be up for this stage, trying to turn around what has been a pretty disastrous Tour to date for the team. Simon Yates has been the better of the twins this season, after Adam was taken down with injury after taking 5th overall in Tirreno. Simon was again the strongest on Mur de Huy, impressively finishing 8th after crashing earlier in the stage. This stage is easier, and I think it likely that they will be able to keep in touch with the main riders up the initial climb, given the ability that they have shown so far this season, and from there it will be about making a good attack. This is where the Yates' brothers perhaps miss a bit of experience, but that is really being harsh, as they are young, and their results are really impressive. I'd say Simon has a good chance this stage, for whatever reason, he has been riding better recently, but there is very little to pick between the two.
Peter Sagan is certainly a threat on this stage as well, but he has shown that he is working first and foremost for Contador, and if he can hold on, he will probably have to work for his team leader. On the other hand, if he arrives at the finish with the front group he will almost definitely win the sprint. The problem with that is anyone with stage ambitions isn't going to want to sprint against Sagan, so it's a very fine line that the Slovakian champ is going to have to tread to win the stage.
Zdenek Stybar showed the blueprint for the escape-and-watch-the-chasers-squabble-behind plan in Stage 6 to Le Havre, and whilst I expect the climbing to be too hard for him here, he isn't without a shot. He is a very strong rider, and if he has a particularly good day, he could be in touch or close enough after the steep section and then carry out his plan again. I think the more likely scenario is that Rigoberto Uran is the rider that can do something here, he was 4th on this stage in 2011, and he looks to be in really, surprisingly good form after a tough Giro, so he could be inline to continue Etixx's great Tour.
The Verdict
Think it's really wide open here, and I'll back Simon Yates in for the win.
Think it's really wide open here, and I'll back Simon Yates in for the win.