Maybe a good day for the breakaway here, with lots of climbing sprinters either having crashed out, or being in teams with other objectives. Expect a vigorous effort to get into the break today, more so than previous days, and perhaps a surprise winner.
The Course
Lots of short but steep climbing punctuates this stage, but it is mostly unclassified. The finish in Le Havre is also steep and short, an 850 metre climb up the Cote d'Ingouville at 7.5% which starts with 1,500 metres to go, and the final 600 metres is at about 2%.
The stage winds along the coast, so the ever-present threat of crosswinds looms again, but the forecast appears mild at the moment, with 18 degrees and moderate winds predicted. The wind will be from the northwest, which will be a crosswind to a cross-headwind for most of the day, but perhaps most importantly it will be a cross-tailwind for the last 30 kms, except the finale, which twists around a bit.
Lots of short but steep climbing punctuates this stage, but it is mostly unclassified. The finish in Le Havre is also steep and short, an 850 metre climb up the Cote d'Ingouville at 7.5% which starts with 1,500 metres to go, and the final 600 metres is at about 2%.
The stage winds along the coast, so the ever-present threat of crosswinds looms again, but the forecast appears mild at the moment, with 18 degrees and moderate winds predicted. The wind will be from the northwest, which will be a crosswind to a cross-headwind for most of the day, but perhaps most importantly it will be a cross-tailwind for the last 30 kms, except the finale, which twists around a bit.
The Tactics
Peter Sagan will go into the stage as the prohibitive favourite, but Tinkoff-Saxo won't do any chasing, and I can't see anyone else really taking up the burden either. Alejandro Valverde and Greg van Avermaet also have GC favourites in their teams who take precedence over them, and Michal Kwiatkowski has gone full domestique in this Tour for his team. Orica-Greenedge would have circled this stage in red pre-Tour, but they have had some really bad luck with their favourite Gerrans crashing out, and Matthews struggling awfully with injuries sustained. Albasini is the fallback, but they won't work for him if Sagan is just going to beat him anyway. The same goes for Boasson Hagen and Gallopin, who might have been keen to have a go at this stage, but are unlikely to get team support towards that goal. Etixx-Quickstep will be on the front of the peleton to protect their jersey, but that doesn't mean bringing the break back, and there are plenty of riders well down on GC, so it is an unlikely that a threatening rider will make the move. In addition it is some pretty tough terrain to chase with quite a few short, steep climbs which will break up the peleton's momentum.
All in all, I really can't make a case for the break being brought back today, so we will have a surprise winner!
Peter Sagan will go into the stage as the prohibitive favourite, but Tinkoff-Saxo won't do any chasing, and I can't see anyone else really taking up the burden either. Alejandro Valverde and Greg van Avermaet also have GC favourites in their teams who take precedence over them, and Michal Kwiatkowski has gone full domestique in this Tour for his team. Orica-Greenedge would have circled this stage in red pre-Tour, but they have had some really bad luck with their favourite Gerrans crashing out, and Matthews struggling awfully with injuries sustained. Albasini is the fallback, but they won't work for him if Sagan is just going to beat him anyway. The same goes for Boasson Hagen and Gallopin, who might have been keen to have a go at this stage, but are unlikely to get team support towards that goal. Etixx-Quickstep will be on the front of the peleton to protect their jersey, but that doesn't mean bringing the break back, and there are plenty of riders well down on GC, so it is an unlikely that a threatening rider will make the move. In addition it is some pretty tough terrain to chase with quite a few short, steep climbs which will break up the peleton's momentum.
All in all, I really can't make a case for the break being brought back today, so we will have a surprise winner!
Local Trivia
The finishing city of Le Havre has a board game named after it. It is a trading game where players have to manage their resources, run their farms and trade through the port to amass the most wealth. Not quite as brazenly capitalistic as Monopoly, but it seems like its working along similar lines.
The finishing city of Le Havre has a board game named after it. It is a trading game where players have to manage their resources, run their farms and trade through the port to amass the most wealth. Not quite as brazenly capitalistic as Monopoly, but it seems like its working along similar lines.
The Contenders
If it comes down to a bunch finish, I think it will be either Peter Sagan or Greg van Avermaet who take the win in that event. As I said above, I don't see that happening, so we will instead look at winning the lottery by taking a random guess at who will win from a breakaway.
Thomas de Gendt is a breakaway specialist of note, and he has already shown his talents this race, being one of a quartet in Stage 4 that attempted to defy the peleton on the cobbles. It was his attempts in Paris-Nice that drew attention however, when he single-handedly held off a charging peleton for almost 30 kilometres before finally being caught perilously close to the line. He will be very keen to have a good chance of winning a stage, and he knows how to finish it off from a break.
Michael Albasini is maybe an outside chance at winning if it the race arrives as a bunch to the finale, but if he gets in a break, he will be nigh on unstoppable. He is a talented breakaway artist, winning the Volta a Catalunya back in 2012 as the result of a breakaway, and he has taken stages in Romandie, Suisse and even the Vuelta as a part of successful breakaways. The Vuelta win was particularly masterful as he controlled the attacks of his feelow escapees in the finale, before taking the win in a sprint. Albasini is getting older, and wins are coming less frequently but he has been in good form this year, and in particular recently, he would have won the Swiss nationals if he hadn't crashed on the final corner, and he took 2nd in Argovie behind Kristoff. Two wins in Romandie and 3rd in Fleche Wallonne show that there's life in the old legs yet.
Thomas Voeckler loves a good old breakaway in the Tour de France, and whilst he normally waits for later in the race, his stints in the yellow jersey have been the result of early breakaways where the peleton simply lets them go. It has been awhile since he won anything, but he has had a number of near misses, and he will be a tough proposition for anyone to overcome if he does successfully make a break.
Pierrick Fedrigo is another old hand at the breakaway victory, he has won 4 stages at the Tour from breaks, including the (in)famous stage where Sandy Casar hit a stray Labrador on the course. He is another who is getting older now, he's 36, but his form has been pretty good for Bretagne-Seche, very consistent in lower level races. He doesn't have great explosive power that other riders have, but he is very accomplished, and will be one to watch.
Nathan Haas has had a mediocre start to his career as a professional cyclist, after coming in on the back of superb results in Australia and Asia, he was expected to convert that form into good WorldTour perfomances. Actually he did win the Tour of Britain belatedly, after Jonathan Tiernan-Locke was found to be doping. but apart from that the result sheet was somewhat sparse up to this season, where he showed a lot of ability in the mid-season, riding strongly at Circuit Sarthe, Brabantes Pijl and the Tour of Romandie. He is a punchy climber who is often a key helper in the classics, and if he gets his chance today, he'll be well suited to the course and the finale.
Off to the young riders now, Bob Jungels is a very exciting talent, who has a very bright future ahead of him in classics and GC riding. This season has been a very good one for the 22 year-old, he started up with 1st overall in Etoile de Besseges and 10th in Andalucia. He has been in very good recent form as well, finishing 6th overall in the Tour de Suisse, as well as winning both the national TT and national road race of Luxembourg. He did an impressive TT for 15th at the start of the Tour as well, so he is clearly in good nick at the moment. He doesn't have a great deal of experience, but he has loads of power and climbing ability, which will stand him in good stead now and into the future.
Matthias Brandle is another younger rider, primarily known as a TT rider, but he is a very strong rider in other scenarios as well. He won a stage of the Tour of Oman from a breakaway, on similar terrain as the riders will face tomorrow, albeit with an easier finish. He won't have the same explosive power uphill as many, but if he can create a gap beforehand, then he will be nigh on impossible to pull back.
If it comes down to a bunch finish, I think it will be either Peter Sagan or Greg van Avermaet who take the win in that event. As I said above, I don't see that happening, so we will instead look at winning the lottery by taking a random guess at who will win from a breakaway.
Thomas de Gendt is a breakaway specialist of note, and he has already shown his talents this race, being one of a quartet in Stage 4 that attempted to defy the peleton on the cobbles. It was his attempts in Paris-Nice that drew attention however, when he single-handedly held off a charging peleton for almost 30 kilometres before finally being caught perilously close to the line. He will be very keen to have a good chance of winning a stage, and he knows how to finish it off from a break.
Michael Albasini is maybe an outside chance at winning if it the race arrives as a bunch to the finale, but if he gets in a break, he will be nigh on unstoppable. He is a talented breakaway artist, winning the Volta a Catalunya back in 2012 as the result of a breakaway, and he has taken stages in Romandie, Suisse and even the Vuelta as a part of successful breakaways. The Vuelta win was particularly masterful as he controlled the attacks of his feelow escapees in the finale, before taking the win in a sprint. Albasini is getting older, and wins are coming less frequently but he has been in good form this year, and in particular recently, he would have won the Swiss nationals if he hadn't crashed on the final corner, and he took 2nd in Argovie behind Kristoff. Two wins in Romandie and 3rd in Fleche Wallonne show that there's life in the old legs yet.
Thomas Voeckler loves a good old breakaway in the Tour de France, and whilst he normally waits for later in the race, his stints in the yellow jersey have been the result of early breakaways where the peleton simply lets them go. It has been awhile since he won anything, but he has had a number of near misses, and he will be a tough proposition for anyone to overcome if he does successfully make a break.
Pierrick Fedrigo is another old hand at the breakaway victory, he has won 4 stages at the Tour from breaks, including the (in)famous stage where Sandy Casar hit a stray Labrador on the course. He is another who is getting older now, he's 36, but his form has been pretty good for Bretagne-Seche, very consistent in lower level races. He doesn't have great explosive power that other riders have, but he is very accomplished, and will be one to watch.
Nathan Haas has had a mediocre start to his career as a professional cyclist, after coming in on the back of superb results in Australia and Asia, he was expected to convert that form into good WorldTour perfomances. Actually he did win the Tour of Britain belatedly, after Jonathan Tiernan-Locke was found to be doping. but apart from that the result sheet was somewhat sparse up to this season, where he showed a lot of ability in the mid-season, riding strongly at Circuit Sarthe, Brabantes Pijl and the Tour of Romandie. He is a punchy climber who is often a key helper in the classics, and if he gets his chance today, he'll be well suited to the course and the finale.
Off to the young riders now, Bob Jungels is a very exciting talent, who has a very bright future ahead of him in classics and GC riding. This season has been a very good one for the 22 year-old, he started up with 1st overall in Etoile de Besseges and 10th in Andalucia. He has been in very good recent form as well, finishing 6th overall in the Tour de Suisse, as well as winning both the national TT and national road race of Luxembourg. He did an impressive TT for 15th at the start of the Tour as well, so he is clearly in good nick at the moment. He doesn't have a great deal of experience, but he has loads of power and climbing ability, which will stand him in good stead now and into the future.
Matthias Brandle is another younger rider, primarily known as a TT rider, but he is a very strong rider in other scenarios as well. He won a stage of the Tour of Oman from a breakaway, on similar terrain as the riders will face tomorrow, albeit with an easier finish. He won't have the same explosive power uphill as many, but if he can create a gap beforehand, then he will be nigh on impossible to pull back.
The Verdict
I think that Orica-Greenedge will bet on the old timer Michael Albasini to take the win here for them from the break, and if he makes it to the finish, he will be nigh on impossible to beat with his ability and on-bike intelligence. It might be some consolation for his team's unlucky start.
EDIT: Albasini has apparently broken his arm so I'll go with Bob Jungels instead. Good luck to Albasini on his recovery.
I think that Orica-Greenedge will bet on the old timer Michael Albasini to take the win here for them from the break, and if he makes it to the finish, he will be nigh on impossible to beat with his ability and on-bike intelligence. It might be some consolation for his team's unlucky start.
EDIT: Albasini has apparently broken his arm so I'll go with Bob Jungels instead. Good luck to Albasini on his recovery.