For those that thought that this would be a quiet sprint stage, think again, as here again the weather gods have decided to make things particularly tough. Winds as strong as stage 2 will assail the peleton, and though the terrain will offer a bit more shelter, there are still some sections of the race which will be hit.
The Course
A day of rolling terrain, without anything so steep to call a climb, but the riders will going up or down for most of the day. It is a particularly meandering day for the course, which will be important with the predicted high winds, as it will suddenly shift from headwind to crosswind, and there are a number of turns like that in the final 80 kilometres.
The flattest part of the race is the finale, which lend itself to a sprint finish. The approach to the line is non-technical, apart from not-quite 90 degree turns, at 2 km to go and 500m to go. That won't be as chaotic as you might think however, as there is a small rise from 1,500 m to go up to 500m remaining which will take some of the speed off the peleton. Nothing serious, about 2% average, but it will make the finale slightly less technical. The last 500m is downhill again at a similar gradient, so it will be one for the really powerful sprinters to bring the power.
A day of rolling terrain, without anything so steep to call a climb, but the riders will going up or down for most of the day. It is a particularly meandering day for the course, which will be important with the predicted high winds, as it will suddenly shift from headwind to crosswind, and there are a number of turns like that in the final 80 kilometres.
The flattest part of the race is the finale, which lend itself to a sprint finish. The approach to the line is non-technical, apart from not-quite 90 degree turns, at 2 km to go and 500m to go. That won't be as chaotic as you might think however, as there is a small rise from 1,500 m to go up to 500m remaining which will take some of the speed off the peleton. Nothing serious, about 2% average, but it will make the finale slightly less technical. The last 500m is downhill again at a similar gradient, so it will be one for the really powerful sprinters to bring the power.
The Tactics
I was thinking the breakaway might have a chance today on the rolling terrain, which will make it hard to sustain a chase. In addition there are a lot of tired riders out there after some very tough riding and crashing already under the belt for the peleton. That was until I saw the weather forecast, which will mean that there will be some serious crosswinds and headwinds throughout, which will decimate the breakaway's chance of a win. This is because, in a crosswind the peleton pushes hard, even the teams that don't care about who wins the stage, driving down the break's advantage. The headwinds are even worse for the break as it really slows progress, and it is a lot easier for the peleton to switch out the riders who are tasked with the leg-breaking task of riding into the wind, but the breakaway are stuck with the same 4-5 guys all day.
In the crosswind sections expect to see more of the same from the teams that specialise in dealing with the crosswinds, causing splits and looking to put other riders into difficulty. The way that this stage differs from Stage 2 is that the riders are often changing direction and thus what direction the wind will be hitting them from, and the last 30kms are going to be run straight into a headwind, which will give larger groups more of a chance on re-establishing contact. So you would think that it would need to be a particularly large first group of 40-50 riders if the split were to be maintained, as otherwise the weight of numbers in the groups behind would come to bear more.
As far as the sprint goes, it will be a battle to see who can get to the final corner first, as the winner is very likely to come from the first 5 riders around it, with the fast downhill finish to come.
I was thinking the breakaway might have a chance today on the rolling terrain, which will make it hard to sustain a chase. In addition there are a lot of tired riders out there after some very tough riding and crashing already under the belt for the peleton. That was until I saw the weather forecast, which will mean that there will be some serious crosswinds and headwinds throughout, which will decimate the breakaway's chance of a win. This is because, in a crosswind the peleton pushes hard, even the teams that don't care about who wins the stage, driving down the break's advantage. The headwinds are even worse for the break as it really slows progress, and it is a lot easier for the peleton to switch out the riders who are tasked with the leg-breaking task of riding into the wind, but the breakaway are stuck with the same 4-5 guys all day.
In the crosswind sections expect to see more of the same from the teams that specialise in dealing with the crosswinds, causing splits and looking to put other riders into difficulty. The way that this stage differs from Stage 2 is that the riders are often changing direction and thus what direction the wind will be hitting them from, and the last 30kms are going to be run straight into a headwind, which will give larger groups more of a chance on re-establishing contact. So you would think that it would need to be a particularly large first group of 40-50 riders if the split were to be maintained, as otherwise the weight of numbers in the groups behind would come to bear more.
As far as the sprint goes, it will be a battle to see who can get to the final corner first, as the winner is very likely to come from the first 5 riders around it, with the fast downhill finish to come.
Local Trivia
Amiens Cathedral will almost definitely be the backdrop that helicopter does swirling panoramic shots of whilst the results are overlaid at the end of the stage. The World Heritage listed cathedral is one of the biggest in France, and is particularly noted for its impressive façade and sculptures. It also holds the religious relic the head of John the Baptist, or at least a very old skull (with scientists dating it to circa 500 BC-1000AD (without teeth, it was impossible to be more accurate). The arrival of the head from Constantinople after the Fourth Crusade in 1204 AD actually inspired the construction of the cathedral, a worthy home for such a magnificent relic.
Amiens Cathedral will almost definitely be the backdrop that helicopter does swirling panoramic shots of whilst the results are overlaid at the end of the stage. The World Heritage listed cathedral is one of the biggest in France, and is particularly noted for its impressive façade and sculptures. It also holds the religious relic the head of John the Baptist, or at least a very old skull (with scientists dating it to circa 500 BC-1000AD (without teeth, it was impossible to be more accurate). The arrival of the head from Constantinople after the Fourth Crusade in 1204 AD actually inspired the construction of the cathedral, a worthy home for such a magnificent relic.
The Contenders
Andre Greipel took the first battle of the sprinters on Stage 2 coming from behind Mark Cavendish, and holding off Peter Sagan by mere centimetres to win. It was a good win, but it should be said that Mark Cavendish sprinted from far too far out, and Peter Sagan isn't a pure sprinter. However, Greipel did the job without his normal leadout train and the race was a bit more attritional than he would normally like. In today's stage it is likely to be very similar conditions to those in which he won Stage 2, and it could well be a reduced bunch that decides the stage. He will be advantaged by the downhill sprint finish, as it will favour his power style of sprinting.
Etixx-Quickstep are very happy with their yellow jersey, but they shouldn't take the eye off the ball with Mark Cavendish, as he will have a great chance of making it 2 from 2 for the Belgian team. Cavendish clearly had nothing left in him for the sprint on Stage 4, but he had been doing a lot of work in the lead-up. He will be a lot better on this stage finish, as he is acknowledged as one of the fastest men in the world, and this finish is for the really fast men.
Peter Sagan kept up his green jersey points hunting on stage 4, taking a decent amount in the intermediate sprint before finishing 3rd on the stage. He won't be as well suited here, but he is clearly in top shape at the moment, and pushed Greipel all the way in Stage 2, so it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that he could pull out a win.
Alexander Kristoff has had somewhat of a disappointing race to date, off the pace in Stages 2 and 4, which both seemed to have his name on them. True, an untimely puncture didn't help in Stage 4, but he had plenty of teammates in the front group who could have stopped to help. It probably indicates that he doesn't have the full backing of the team because he isn't on top form. During the season, he has shown himself to be as fast as anyone, and he looked to be in some decent form in the Tour de Suisse. Maybe it was just bad luck in the stages so far, but he will need to push beyond that to take a stage win here. Marco Haller, the second last rider in Kristoff's leadout was quite badly hurt in a Stage 3 crash, and looks to be struggling at the moment, and that won't help things.The attritional nature of the wind and rain will definitely help the big Norwegian and he could return to the top step of the podium with a bit of luck.
John Degenkolb was my pick for the stage yesterday, and he did the next best thing, taking 2nd after Tony Martin had escaped and stolen the win. His Giant-Alpecin team really missed a trick there, once Martin had gone, they were way out of position and it took them some time to organise on the front of the peleton. Once Koen de Kort was used up, Barguil either had nothing or chose to do nothing, and Degenkolb was forced to rely on others to drive the pace. It probably cost the German a win, and he will have every right to be disappointed with his team/management there. Today's stage isn't as good for Degenkolb, but he isn't far off the top guys in terms of speed, and if he can find an advantage, then he could well take the win here.
Nacer Bouhanni rode impressively in Stage 4, and looks to have put any injury behind as he sprinted to 6th on the stage. He will be very much in the mix for the win here if he has fully recovered his form, as he has a lot of speed, and a team fully dedicated to working for him. Gregory Soupe has been his long-time leadout man, and can be relied upon to do a solid job for the Frenchman.
Another French sprinter in with a chance is Bryan Coquard, who surprisingly survived the cobbles today, but was entirely absent for the sprint, finishing 10th, and well behind the other main sprinters. Quite possibly, he had a lot taken out of him by the cobbles, which is hardly surprising for a young rider like him with little cobbles experience. Tomorrow isn't going to be much better for him however, a downhill sprint, won't help him much, as he is one of the smaller sprinters around, and doesn't have the raw power of many others. In addition the likely bad weather won't favour him either.
Sam Bennet has been quiet so far this Tour, but then again, hasn't had things run to suit him. It looks unfortunately that it will be the same again in this stage, with the wind and rain likely to make things more attritional than he can handle, and I doubt that he'll make it there with the first group. If he is there he could be handy, as he has shown this season that he can sprint against the bigger names of cycling and win. It might be a bit much to expect him to take a win in his first Tour, but he clearly has a lot of speed, as well as the know-how to win sprints.
Orica-Greenedge are having a rough time of things, and their chief sprinter, Michael Matthews isn't looking in any shape to sprint at the moment. He came in last on Stage 3 and 2nd last on Stage 4, and I can't see that changing too much tomorrow, particularly if the weather makes things difficult. Albasini might take up sprinting duties in his absence, but whilst the older Swiss rider is nippy, particularly in an uphill finish, he is no match for the top sprinters.
Edvald Boasson Hagen had a good day on the bike today, covering all the moves, and looking fast in the sprint, finishing 4th on the day, and really pushing Sagan and Degenkolb, who are more highly credentialed than him. That was on an uphill sprint however, and the downhill will not suit him nearly as much, as he lacks the raw power that the others have. He is good at positioning, and is clearly in some good form, so a top 10 looks likely.
Andre Greipel took the first battle of the sprinters on Stage 2 coming from behind Mark Cavendish, and holding off Peter Sagan by mere centimetres to win. It was a good win, but it should be said that Mark Cavendish sprinted from far too far out, and Peter Sagan isn't a pure sprinter. However, Greipel did the job without his normal leadout train and the race was a bit more attritional than he would normally like. In today's stage it is likely to be very similar conditions to those in which he won Stage 2, and it could well be a reduced bunch that decides the stage. He will be advantaged by the downhill sprint finish, as it will favour his power style of sprinting.
Etixx-Quickstep are very happy with their yellow jersey, but they shouldn't take the eye off the ball with Mark Cavendish, as he will have a great chance of making it 2 from 2 for the Belgian team. Cavendish clearly had nothing left in him for the sprint on Stage 4, but he had been doing a lot of work in the lead-up. He will be a lot better on this stage finish, as he is acknowledged as one of the fastest men in the world, and this finish is for the really fast men.
Peter Sagan kept up his green jersey points hunting on stage 4, taking a decent amount in the intermediate sprint before finishing 3rd on the stage. He won't be as well suited here, but he is clearly in top shape at the moment, and pushed Greipel all the way in Stage 2, so it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that he could pull out a win.
Alexander Kristoff has had somewhat of a disappointing race to date, off the pace in Stages 2 and 4, which both seemed to have his name on them. True, an untimely puncture didn't help in Stage 4, but he had plenty of teammates in the front group who could have stopped to help. It probably indicates that he doesn't have the full backing of the team because he isn't on top form. During the season, he has shown himself to be as fast as anyone, and he looked to be in some decent form in the Tour de Suisse. Maybe it was just bad luck in the stages so far, but he will need to push beyond that to take a stage win here. Marco Haller, the second last rider in Kristoff's leadout was quite badly hurt in a Stage 3 crash, and looks to be struggling at the moment, and that won't help things.The attritional nature of the wind and rain will definitely help the big Norwegian and he could return to the top step of the podium with a bit of luck.
John Degenkolb was my pick for the stage yesterday, and he did the next best thing, taking 2nd after Tony Martin had escaped and stolen the win. His Giant-Alpecin team really missed a trick there, once Martin had gone, they were way out of position and it took them some time to organise on the front of the peleton. Once Koen de Kort was used up, Barguil either had nothing or chose to do nothing, and Degenkolb was forced to rely on others to drive the pace. It probably cost the German a win, and he will have every right to be disappointed with his team/management there. Today's stage isn't as good for Degenkolb, but he isn't far off the top guys in terms of speed, and if he can find an advantage, then he could well take the win here.
Nacer Bouhanni rode impressively in Stage 4, and looks to have put any injury behind as he sprinted to 6th on the stage. He will be very much in the mix for the win here if he has fully recovered his form, as he has a lot of speed, and a team fully dedicated to working for him. Gregory Soupe has been his long-time leadout man, and can be relied upon to do a solid job for the Frenchman.
Another French sprinter in with a chance is Bryan Coquard, who surprisingly survived the cobbles today, but was entirely absent for the sprint, finishing 10th, and well behind the other main sprinters. Quite possibly, he had a lot taken out of him by the cobbles, which is hardly surprising for a young rider like him with little cobbles experience. Tomorrow isn't going to be much better for him however, a downhill sprint, won't help him much, as he is one of the smaller sprinters around, and doesn't have the raw power of many others. In addition the likely bad weather won't favour him either.
Sam Bennet has been quiet so far this Tour, but then again, hasn't had things run to suit him. It looks unfortunately that it will be the same again in this stage, with the wind and rain likely to make things more attritional than he can handle, and I doubt that he'll make it there with the first group. If he is there he could be handy, as he has shown this season that he can sprint against the bigger names of cycling and win. It might be a bit much to expect him to take a win in his first Tour, but he clearly has a lot of speed, as well as the know-how to win sprints.
Orica-Greenedge are having a rough time of things, and their chief sprinter, Michael Matthews isn't looking in any shape to sprint at the moment. He came in last on Stage 3 and 2nd last on Stage 4, and I can't see that changing too much tomorrow, particularly if the weather makes things difficult. Albasini might take up sprinting duties in his absence, but whilst the older Swiss rider is nippy, particularly in an uphill finish, he is no match for the top sprinters.
Edvald Boasson Hagen had a good day on the bike today, covering all the moves, and looking fast in the sprint, finishing 4th on the day, and really pushing Sagan and Degenkolb, who are more highly credentialed than him. That was on an uphill sprint however, and the downhill will not suit him nearly as much, as he lacks the raw power that the others have. He is good at positioning, and is clearly in some good form, so a top 10 looks likely.
The Verdict
Andre Greipel will be the best suited by the finish, and he shown already that he can handle the tough weather. The finale isn't overly technical, and all in all, I think another Greipel win is on the cards.
Andre Greipel will be the best suited by the finish, and he shown already that he can handle the tough weather. The finale isn't overly technical, and all in all, I think another Greipel win is on the cards.