The cobbles day is back, for the second year in a row, after the fireworks in the equivalent stage of last year's Tour, when Vincenzo Nibali laid his stamp emphatically on the race, taking 3rd on the stage behind Lars Boom, who soloed to victory.
It was a tough day for the peleton on Stage 3, with a huge crash at high speed causing all sorts of carnage, several riders quitting the race as a result. Perhaps the biggest talking point was the strength of Chris Froome, distancing the other favourites on a punchy climb where he normally wouldn't be favoured. He took on the yellow jersey, and though he'll probably lose it today, he looks a good bet to be wearing it at the end of the Tour.
It was a tough day for the peleton on Stage 3, with a huge crash at high speed causing all sorts of carnage, several riders quitting the race as a result. Perhaps the biggest talking point was the strength of Chris Froome, distancing the other favourites on a punchy climb where he normally wouldn't be favoured. He took on the yellow jersey, and though he'll probably lose it today, he looks a good bet to be wearing it at the end of the Tour.
The Course
The Tour organisers often put mini editions of classics races into the parcours of the Tour. Yesterday it was the Fleche Wallonne, and today it is Paris-Roubaix. Less long and less gruelling than Paris-Roubaix, it will nonetheless be a very tough day in the saddle.
There are 7 sectors of cobbles in total, with the last 6 coming in the last 46 kilometres of racing. 4 of those sectors regularly feature in Paris-Roubaix, the toughest is the Quievy sector at 4 stars. It is located with 23 kilometres to go, and will likely play a decisive role in deciding the winner. The final kilometre is very technical, with a 500m run downhill into two 90 degree turns, then the final 500ms is uphill at 4.2%.
The weather forecast for today is pretty warm at a balmy 27 Degrees, which means it is more likely to be a dusty race than a muddy one. It should also make the race less treacherous, and as we saw last year, the rain also makes it more selective. The other big factor is the wind which will be a moderate to strong headwind for most of the race. It will be a cross or cross-headwind for the majority of the cobbles sections, which should aid in splitting up the field, and then it shifts back to being a headwind to the finish for the last 20 kms, after the Quievy sector, almost the entire way into the finish, where the final 500m will be with a tailwind, perhaps helping those that attack from slightly farther out.
The Tour organisers often put mini editions of classics races into the parcours of the Tour. Yesterday it was the Fleche Wallonne, and today it is Paris-Roubaix. Less long and less gruelling than Paris-Roubaix, it will nonetheless be a very tough day in the saddle.
There are 7 sectors of cobbles in total, with the last 6 coming in the last 46 kilometres of racing. 4 of those sectors regularly feature in Paris-Roubaix, the toughest is the Quievy sector at 4 stars. It is located with 23 kilometres to go, and will likely play a decisive role in deciding the winner. The final kilometre is very technical, with a 500m run downhill into two 90 degree turns, then the final 500ms is uphill at 4.2%.
The weather forecast for today is pretty warm at a balmy 27 Degrees, which means it is more likely to be a dusty race than a muddy one. It should also make the race less treacherous, and as we saw last year, the rain also makes it more selective. The other big factor is the wind which will be a moderate to strong headwind for most of the race. It will be a cross or cross-headwind for the majority of the cobbles sections, which should aid in splitting up the field, and then it shifts back to being a headwind to the finish for the last 20 kms, after the Quievy sector, almost the entire way into the finish, where the final 500m will be with a tailwind, perhaps helping those that attack from slightly farther out.
The Tactics
It's going to be a frantic battle to get into each cobbled sector amongst the leaders here, for getting caught behind splits is how you lose lots of time on the cobbles. Crashes and riders dropping off are the main cause of these splits, and the crosswinds on the majority of the cobbled sectors will also play a significant role in widening those gaps.
Astana did a superb job of guiding Nibali around last year, and should do a good job of protecting him again, with an even stronger team than last time around. Boom, Westra, Grivko, Fuglsang and Kangert were all very good on the equivalent stage last year, Boom riding for a different team and winning the stage. Sky have also brought a few riders who are very good on the cobbles, with Thomas, Rowe and Stannard all experienced on the cobbles and strong riders to boot. Matteo Tossato and Peter Sagan will have to do most of the work for Contador, which makes me think that Sagan won't have as much chance at the stage, as he has repeatedly said that Contador's GC result comes first. BMC have a strong cobbles squad at the disposal of Van Garderen. Quintana will be one who could be in a lot of trouble on today's stage, with next to no cobbled specialists on his team. In fact Valverde is probably the strongest Movistar rider over the cobbles, after some decent performances last year when preparing for the Tour. Quintana did look ok in his practice cobbles races this season, but he still lacks the experience needed to do well, and the power on the flat to stay in touch by himself. A lot of the other contenders have lost a fair bit of time already, and for Pinot, this could be the day when he drops out of contention for GC entirely.
From a stage-winning perspective, there are two decisive aspects to the stage, the cobbles sections and the strong headwind on the final 20 kilometres. If the cobbles split the race to pieces, like the crosswinds did on stage 2, then the power of the chasers wont be able to combined together to chase down the escapees and even a smallish group could last to the finish, headwind not withstanding. What I think is more likely is that the splits are kept to one or two key groups, with 30-40 riders in the front group after the cobbles are done. It will be very hard to attack from that group in a small attack with a headwind blowing, and the teams advantaged by the split trying to push the move as fast as possible to put time into their rivals. For that reason I think the likely result is that it comes down to sprint from a reduced bunch. A key team to watch will be Etixx-Quickstep, who have done a huge amount of work to try and get Tony Martin into the yellow jersey so far this race, if he is in the front group and Froome isn't then they will take on the bulk of the work to distance the field. The technical finish followed by a tough uphill will favour certain riders, particularly the good bike-handlers who are good at the uphill finishes.
It's going to be a frantic battle to get into each cobbled sector amongst the leaders here, for getting caught behind splits is how you lose lots of time on the cobbles. Crashes and riders dropping off are the main cause of these splits, and the crosswinds on the majority of the cobbled sectors will also play a significant role in widening those gaps.
Astana did a superb job of guiding Nibali around last year, and should do a good job of protecting him again, with an even stronger team than last time around. Boom, Westra, Grivko, Fuglsang and Kangert were all very good on the equivalent stage last year, Boom riding for a different team and winning the stage. Sky have also brought a few riders who are very good on the cobbles, with Thomas, Rowe and Stannard all experienced on the cobbles and strong riders to boot. Matteo Tossato and Peter Sagan will have to do most of the work for Contador, which makes me think that Sagan won't have as much chance at the stage, as he has repeatedly said that Contador's GC result comes first. BMC have a strong cobbles squad at the disposal of Van Garderen. Quintana will be one who could be in a lot of trouble on today's stage, with next to no cobbled specialists on his team. In fact Valverde is probably the strongest Movistar rider over the cobbles, after some decent performances last year when preparing for the Tour. Quintana did look ok in his practice cobbles races this season, but he still lacks the experience needed to do well, and the power on the flat to stay in touch by himself. A lot of the other contenders have lost a fair bit of time already, and for Pinot, this could be the day when he drops out of contention for GC entirely.
From a stage-winning perspective, there are two decisive aspects to the stage, the cobbles sections and the strong headwind on the final 20 kilometres. If the cobbles split the race to pieces, like the crosswinds did on stage 2, then the power of the chasers wont be able to combined together to chase down the escapees and even a smallish group could last to the finish, headwind not withstanding. What I think is more likely is that the splits are kept to one or two key groups, with 30-40 riders in the front group after the cobbles are done. It will be very hard to attack from that group in a small attack with a headwind blowing, and the teams advantaged by the split trying to push the move as fast as possible to put time into their rivals. For that reason I think the likely result is that it comes down to sprint from a reduced bunch. A key team to watch will be Etixx-Quickstep, who have done a huge amount of work to try and get Tony Martin into the yellow jersey so far this race, if he is in the front group and Froome isn't then they will take on the bulk of the work to distance the field. The technical finish followed by a tough uphill will favour certain riders, particularly the good bike-handlers who are good at the uphill finishes.
The Contenders
John Degenkolb seems to have all the pieces falling into place for him here, he is one of the strongest over the cobbles, the longer distances and he is also one of the best uphill sprinters in the world. Perhaps the biggest problem for him here is the fact that he will largely be by himself in the finale, as the rest of his team aren't noted cobblers. He also doesn't look in top form at the moment, he dropped off the pace a bit earlier than I thought he would in Stage 3, and he failed to make the split in Stage 2. He did however win the intermediate sprint in Stage 2, so he can't be in too bad nick.
Peter Sagan is another one who has all the boxes ticked for this stage, he is strong over the cobbles, he will love this technical finish and the uphill sprint is right up his alley. In addition he is in superb form at the moment, centimetres away from beating Greipel on Stage 2, and sticking with Contador for almost the entire way to the finish on Stage 3. What will hold him back in this stage is that he will be the key worker for Contador, with Tinkoff-Saxo pretty low on cobbled classics specialists apart from him. That might not matter too much if Contador can keep pace with the front group, and Sagan is allowed to do his own thing in the sprint, but if he drops off or looks in trouble, Sagan will be put straight on domestique duty.
Zdenek Stybar is a very strong rider on the cobbles, he is one of the best bike handlers around and he's also no slouch in an uphill sprint, he won Strade Bianche this season, and also took 3rd in an uphill sprint in Tirreno. He lacks a bit of punch compared to the others on this list, but his main problem will be that he will only get very limited support on the stage, and may even have to work for Martin, who Etixx-Quickstep are almost masochistically keen to work for in a bid to put him into yellow.
Alexander Kristoff is a superbly strong rider in the longer races, he has very good cobbles riding ability and he isn't bad on the uphill sprints. He would prefer it to be flat I would have thought, but he won an uphill sprint in the Tour de Suisse, beating Sagan there, so he will be pretty confident of his abilities in this finish. On the downside, he will pretty isolated in the finale most likely, as he doesn't have many cobbles specialists in his team. In addition he appears to be in some pretty ordinary form, he was one of the last riders to finish Stage 3, then again perhaps he was just saving himself with this stage in mind.
Sep Vanmarcke would have been one of the top picks for this stage in different conditions, but the headwind in the finale really cruels his chances, as he'll be hard pressed to drop the sprinters and maintain his advantage into the finish. Add to that, that it's not just riders from behind chasing for the stage win, but also to distance GC contenders, and you can see why it will be a very hard task for Vanmarcke to win this one. Perhaps his best shot lies in a last few kilometre blitz off the front, where he can use the technical nature of the course to his advantage and surprise the sprinters, who won't have much in the way of a leadout train.
This will also be the way that Lars Boom can take a win today. He doesn't have the best sprint but is very strong over the cobbles, and has the power to try a move like that. It is possible that he'll be on duty for Nibali, but Astana showed in the Giro that they are happy to give their domestiques a chance at winning when it presents itself, and this is Boom's best chance at taking a stage win.
Andre Greipel traditionally hasn't gone too well on the cobbles, that is until this season where he was very strong in Ronde Van Vlaanderen, and looked comfortable enough in Roubaix, and just unable to go with the major attacks. That shouldn't be a problem today, with the headwind to favour a bunch finish. What will disadvantage the big German is the technical finale and the uphill sprint, which will foul his chances. He is not awful on short uphills, but he is pretty bad in sharp corners, and he won't be able to make up that disadvantage on the climbing sprint.
Instead Jens Debusschere will probably the chance to ride for himself. He has developed a reputation this season as a handy sprinter/cobbler, reminiscent of a young Kristoff. His highlights this year have been winning a sprint on a technical finish in Tirreno, beating Sagan in the process, and taking 2nd behind Kristoff in Drieesdage de Panne, when he was in the break all day, caught by attackers, and stayed in the group, even challenging Kristoff in the sprint. Certainly he looks like he has a good future ahead of him, and he could cause a surprise here.
Greg Van Avermaet is always a strong contender in any classics style race, and he particularly excels in the cobbled classics. Like many riders on this list, he has duties to his team leader first, but BMC have a pretty strong squad to help Van Garderen, and Van Avermaet will probably get more freedom than most in the finale. He would have benefited from the headwind not being present as he is by nature a very aggressive rider, but he also has a formidable uphill sprint and bike handling skills, so he should be able to mix it up with the best in this sort of finish.
John Degenkolb seems to have all the pieces falling into place for him here, he is one of the strongest over the cobbles, the longer distances and he is also one of the best uphill sprinters in the world. Perhaps the biggest problem for him here is the fact that he will largely be by himself in the finale, as the rest of his team aren't noted cobblers. He also doesn't look in top form at the moment, he dropped off the pace a bit earlier than I thought he would in Stage 3, and he failed to make the split in Stage 2. He did however win the intermediate sprint in Stage 2, so he can't be in too bad nick.
Peter Sagan is another one who has all the boxes ticked for this stage, he is strong over the cobbles, he will love this technical finish and the uphill sprint is right up his alley. In addition he is in superb form at the moment, centimetres away from beating Greipel on Stage 2, and sticking with Contador for almost the entire way to the finish on Stage 3. What will hold him back in this stage is that he will be the key worker for Contador, with Tinkoff-Saxo pretty low on cobbled classics specialists apart from him. That might not matter too much if Contador can keep pace with the front group, and Sagan is allowed to do his own thing in the sprint, but if he drops off or looks in trouble, Sagan will be put straight on domestique duty.
Zdenek Stybar is a very strong rider on the cobbles, he is one of the best bike handlers around and he's also no slouch in an uphill sprint, he won Strade Bianche this season, and also took 3rd in an uphill sprint in Tirreno. He lacks a bit of punch compared to the others on this list, but his main problem will be that he will only get very limited support on the stage, and may even have to work for Martin, who Etixx-Quickstep are almost masochistically keen to work for in a bid to put him into yellow.
Alexander Kristoff is a superbly strong rider in the longer races, he has very good cobbles riding ability and he isn't bad on the uphill sprints. He would prefer it to be flat I would have thought, but he won an uphill sprint in the Tour de Suisse, beating Sagan there, so he will be pretty confident of his abilities in this finish. On the downside, he will pretty isolated in the finale most likely, as he doesn't have many cobbles specialists in his team. In addition he appears to be in some pretty ordinary form, he was one of the last riders to finish Stage 3, then again perhaps he was just saving himself with this stage in mind.
Sep Vanmarcke would have been one of the top picks for this stage in different conditions, but the headwind in the finale really cruels his chances, as he'll be hard pressed to drop the sprinters and maintain his advantage into the finish. Add to that, that it's not just riders from behind chasing for the stage win, but also to distance GC contenders, and you can see why it will be a very hard task for Vanmarcke to win this one. Perhaps his best shot lies in a last few kilometre blitz off the front, where he can use the technical nature of the course to his advantage and surprise the sprinters, who won't have much in the way of a leadout train.
This will also be the way that Lars Boom can take a win today. He doesn't have the best sprint but is very strong over the cobbles, and has the power to try a move like that. It is possible that he'll be on duty for Nibali, but Astana showed in the Giro that they are happy to give their domestiques a chance at winning when it presents itself, and this is Boom's best chance at taking a stage win.
Andre Greipel traditionally hasn't gone too well on the cobbles, that is until this season where he was very strong in Ronde Van Vlaanderen, and looked comfortable enough in Roubaix, and just unable to go with the major attacks. That shouldn't be a problem today, with the headwind to favour a bunch finish. What will disadvantage the big German is the technical finale and the uphill sprint, which will foul his chances. He is not awful on short uphills, but he is pretty bad in sharp corners, and he won't be able to make up that disadvantage on the climbing sprint.
Instead Jens Debusschere will probably the chance to ride for himself. He has developed a reputation this season as a handy sprinter/cobbler, reminiscent of a young Kristoff. His highlights this year have been winning a sprint on a technical finish in Tirreno, beating Sagan in the process, and taking 2nd behind Kristoff in Drieesdage de Panne, when he was in the break all day, caught by attackers, and stayed in the group, even challenging Kristoff in the sprint. Certainly he looks like he has a good future ahead of him, and he could cause a surprise here.
Greg Van Avermaet is always a strong contender in any classics style race, and he particularly excels in the cobbled classics. Like many riders on this list, he has duties to his team leader first, but BMC have a pretty strong squad to help Van Garderen, and Van Avermaet will probably get more freedom than most in the finale. He would have benefited from the headwind not being present as he is by nature a very aggressive rider, but he also has a formidable uphill sprint and bike handling skills, so he should be able to mix it up with the best in this sort of finish.
The Verdict
Triple prediction today, Tony Martin takes yellow, John Degenkolb wins and Jens Debusschere finishes in the top 4.
Triple prediction today, Tony Martin takes yellow, John Degenkolb wins and Jens Debusschere finishes in the top 4.