Well, that was a an action packed three weeks, but it's not quite over yet, as the riders still have their traditional jaunt round Paris left. Prepare for champagne swigging, lingering shots of Paris scenery and criterium style racing. Also, look forward to La Course, where the women get to strut their stuff in front of the big crowds.
The Course
The normal processional stage into and around Paris for the peleton, which makes a nice difference after a long slog around France. The race over the cobbled roads of the Champs Elysees only heats up after the riders have passed the finish line for the first time then it is a further 10 times round before the finish. The circuit is quite technical, but not so much as to exclude any riders, and it's more important to have a good leadout at your disposal.
La Course is held on the same circuit, a few hours before the men.
The normal processional stage into and around Paris for the peleton, which makes a nice difference after a long slog around France. The race over the cobbled roads of the Champs Elysees only heats up after the riders have passed the finish line for the first time then it is a further 10 times round before the finish. The circuit is quite technical, but not so much as to exclude any riders, and it's more important to have a good leadout at your disposal.
La Course is held on the same circuit, a few hours before the men.
The Tactics
A fairly straightforward race in terms of tactics, the non-sprinting teams will try to get away and stay away, whilst the teams of the sprinters chase them down. This stage almost always ends in a sprint, there was an aberration at the Giro this year, when Ilijo Keisse beat Durbridge in a two up sprint, but in that case there were games going on inside the peleton with the points jersey, and the chase lost momentum. Those sort of interpeleton politics aren't apparent here, and it is hard to see anything from preventing a full bunch sprint.
A fairly straightforward race in terms of tactics, the non-sprinting teams will try to get away and stay away, whilst the teams of the sprinters chase them down. This stage almost always ends in a sprint, there was an aberration at the Giro this year, when Ilijo Keisse beat Durbridge in a two up sprint, but in that case there were games going on inside the peleton with the points jersey, and the chase lost momentum. Those sort of interpeleton politics aren't apparent here, and it is hard to see anything from preventing a full bunch sprint.
La Course Contenders
The big news is that perennial favourite and legend Marianne Vos is out of this edition with injury. The runner up from last year, Kirsten Wild is back, and she will be the favourite if it comes down to a sprint. Without Vos' team to do the work, this might not be a forgone conclusion like it is in the men's race however, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a sprint from a small group or even a lone escapee. Certainly there are plenty of strong riders who would prefer that sort of scenario and I think it will be very hard to keep together for a bunch sprint.
Kirsten Wild would be the favourite in the case of a big sprint, she is the most powerful sprinter around at the moment, and with the absence of Vos, and the decline of Bronzini, she will be the favourite in a sprint. Tiffany Cromwell, Lucinda Brand, Barbara Guarischi and Annalissa Cucinotta should all mix it up as well.
Emma Johansson cannot be discounted from winning a sprint, but she will be better served in winning from a small group and I think that will be the tactic that she and her Orica-AIS squad will try for. She is in top form at the moment, recently winning the Thüringen Rundhfahrt, and she is consistently one of the best riders in the peleton.
Pauline Ferrand-Prevot is a young rider who was superb in winning the worlds title last season, but I think she will find it harder here. She isn't a great sprinter, and would want to win the race solo. In addition she hasn't quite been able to replicate her form from last year, and she will require all her strength to escape the peleton and hold them off.
Lucinda Brand will have to take up Marianne Vos' mantle in this race, as she has done for most of the season, and I think she'll be hard to beat here. She has a very good sprint, plenty of power to make moves and a very strong team to support her. She is also one of the few with the pure speed to win a bunch sprint, so she has multiple ways to win depending on the race situation.
Anna Van Der Breggen is coming off a big win at the Giro Rosa, and she'll be on a high for La Course. Her best chance at winning here will be solo, as she is a powerful rider, rather than a quick one, but she might win a sprint from a small group if some of the faster riders aren't present.
Lisa Brennauer is a good all-rounder, but is especially known for her time-trialling skills. She also has a good sprint, and was 4th in last year's La Course, albeit well off the top 3 finishers. Her highlight for the season was a victory in the Aviva Women's Tour where she won due to her very consistent sprinting performances taking a win and two 2nd places.
The big news is that perennial favourite and legend Marianne Vos is out of this edition with injury. The runner up from last year, Kirsten Wild is back, and she will be the favourite if it comes down to a sprint. Without Vos' team to do the work, this might not be a forgone conclusion like it is in the men's race however, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a sprint from a small group or even a lone escapee. Certainly there are plenty of strong riders who would prefer that sort of scenario and I think it will be very hard to keep together for a bunch sprint.
Kirsten Wild would be the favourite in the case of a big sprint, she is the most powerful sprinter around at the moment, and with the absence of Vos, and the decline of Bronzini, she will be the favourite in a sprint. Tiffany Cromwell, Lucinda Brand, Barbara Guarischi and Annalissa Cucinotta should all mix it up as well.
Emma Johansson cannot be discounted from winning a sprint, but she will be better served in winning from a small group and I think that will be the tactic that she and her Orica-AIS squad will try for. She is in top form at the moment, recently winning the Thüringen Rundhfahrt, and she is consistently one of the best riders in the peleton.
Pauline Ferrand-Prevot is a young rider who was superb in winning the worlds title last season, but I think she will find it harder here. She isn't a great sprinter, and would want to win the race solo. In addition she hasn't quite been able to replicate her form from last year, and she will require all her strength to escape the peleton and hold them off.
Lucinda Brand will have to take up Marianne Vos' mantle in this race, as she has done for most of the season, and I think she'll be hard to beat here. She has a very good sprint, plenty of power to make moves and a very strong team to support her. She is also one of the few with the pure speed to win a bunch sprint, so she has multiple ways to win depending on the race situation.
Anna Van Der Breggen is coming off a big win at the Giro Rosa, and she'll be on a high for La Course. Her best chance at winning here will be solo, as she is a powerful rider, rather than a quick one, but she might win a sprint from a small group if some of the faster riders aren't present.
Lisa Brennauer is a good all-rounder, but is especially known for her time-trialling skills. She also has a good sprint, and was 4th in last year's La Course, albeit well off the top 3 finishers. Her highlight for the season was a victory in the Aviva Women's Tour where she won due to her very consistent sprinting performances taking a win and two 2nd places.
The Contenders
Andre Greipel has been the sprinter par excellence this Tour taking three impressive stage wins along the way. He has only been kept out of the sprinter's green jersey by the all-round ridiculous ability of Peter Sagan. He has lost Greg Henderson, his last leadout man, but the rest of his train remains intact, and it did not stop him from winning the last sprint. He has looked faster than his competitors this Tour, but will have to win where he hasn't won before, on the Champs Elysees.
Mark Cavendish hasn't looked far off the big German on speed, and his losses can be excused for various reasons. He has lost quite a few of his leadout riders however, and he won't have the same positioning that he has enjoyed in past sprints along the Champs Elysees. He isn't bad at doing the positioning for himself, but he hasn't beat Greipel for speed yet this Tour, and he will have to do so from a disadvantage here to win.
Alexander Kristoff has had a quiet Tour, and will be looking to make up for it with a win on the biggest stage here. He has maintained his leadout better than the other sprinters, and he could even start the sprint ahead of his rivals. He hasn't looked far off Greipel and Cavendish in terms of speed, and it wouldn't be a big surprise for him to turn it round here.
Peter Sagan has had a superb Tour, but has yet to crack it for that elusive win. He has often been the fastest finisher in the sprints, coming from well back to claim unlikely 2nd positions on a few occasions. He will again suffer from the problem of not having a dedicated leadout, but he normally handles his positioning well, and with a number of normal leadout riders missing from the other trains, he might stand a better chance than normal. What may count against him however is that he has been going on the attack and into the break very often, even on the mountains stage, and he may not have conserved the same energy that the other sprinters have. On the other hand, he is clearly in fantastic form, and to be honest he probably wouldn't be using that much more energy than some of the sprinters in the last group, given his climbing abilities.
John Degenkolb is having a good go in the sprints, but I find it hard to believe that he has the outright speed to win here. He had every chance to beat Greipel in the last sprint, after Greipel was forced to open up early with Degenkolb perfectly positioned in his wheel, but he was unable to come over the top and take the win. He's also missing a key rider for his leadout in Ramon Sinkledam, and I'm not sure I can see him winning.
Edvald Boasson Hagen is the final rider that I can envisage possibly snagging a win here. He has in fact been 2nd here in the past, finishing behind Cavendish in 2011. He has looked like he has returned to that form of 2010-11, when he was considered one of the hottest prospects in cycling. He's got his full leadout at his disposal, and after a strong Tour for MTN-Qhubekha they will be very keen to end on a high. He hasn't started on equal terms with the top sprinters yet, but he hasn't looked like he quite matches them for speed. He'll have to get a bit lucky, or the leadout will need to work perfectly, but he's still an outside shot at winning.
Andre Greipel has been the sprinter par excellence this Tour taking three impressive stage wins along the way. He has only been kept out of the sprinter's green jersey by the all-round ridiculous ability of Peter Sagan. He has lost Greg Henderson, his last leadout man, but the rest of his train remains intact, and it did not stop him from winning the last sprint. He has looked faster than his competitors this Tour, but will have to win where he hasn't won before, on the Champs Elysees.
Mark Cavendish hasn't looked far off the big German on speed, and his losses can be excused for various reasons. He has lost quite a few of his leadout riders however, and he won't have the same positioning that he has enjoyed in past sprints along the Champs Elysees. He isn't bad at doing the positioning for himself, but he hasn't beat Greipel for speed yet this Tour, and he will have to do so from a disadvantage here to win.
Alexander Kristoff has had a quiet Tour, and will be looking to make up for it with a win on the biggest stage here. He has maintained his leadout better than the other sprinters, and he could even start the sprint ahead of his rivals. He hasn't looked far off Greipel and Cavendish in terms of speed, and it wouldn't be a big surprise for him to turn it round here.
Peter Sagan has had a superb Tour, but has yet to crack it for that elusive win. He has often been the fastest finisher in the sprints, coming from well back to claim unlikely 2nd positions on a few occasions. He will again suffer from the problem of not having a dedicated leadout, but he normally handles his positioning well, and with a number of normal leadout riders missing from the other trains, he might stand a better chance than normal. What may count against him however is that he has been going on the attack and into the break very often, even on the mountains stage, and he may not have conserved the same energy that the other sprinters have. On the other hand, he is clearly in fantastic form, and to be honest he probably wouldn't be using that much more energy than some of the sprinters in the last group, given his climbing abilities.
John Degenkolb is having a good go in the sprints, but I find it hard to believe that he has the outright speed to win here. He had every chance to beat Greipel in the last sprint, after Greipel was forced to open up early with Degenkolb perfectly positioned in his wheel, but he was unable to come over the top and take the win. He's also missing a key rider for his leadout in Ramon Sinkledam, and I'm not sure I can see him winning.
Edvald Boasson Hagen is the final rider that I can envisage possibly snagging a win here. He has in fact been 2nd here in the past, finishing behind Cavendish in 2011. He has looked like he has returned to that form of 2010-11, when he was considered one of the hottest prospects in cycling. He's got his full leadout at his disposal, and after a strong Tour for MTN-Qhubekha they will be very keen to end on a high. He hasn't started on equal terms with the top sprinters yet, but he hasn't looked like he quite matches them for speed. He'll have to get a bit lucky, or the leadout will need to work perfectly, but he's still an outside shot at winning.
The Verdict
I'll openly admit to not being a font of knowledge on the women's cycling scene, but I have been impressed by the efforts of Lucinda Brand this season. I was going to go with my Orica-AIS bias and go for Emma Johansson, but Brand looks just a bit quick for the Swedish star.
For the men, I think I'll go with Kristoff in a small upset. Maybe he'll be more at home on the small cobbles of the Champs Elysees.
I'll openly admit to not being a font of knowledge on the women's cycling scene, but I have been impressed by the efforts of Lucinda Brand this season. I was going to go with my Orica-AIS bias and go for Emma Johansson, but Brand looks just a bit quick for the Swedish star.
For the men, I think I'll go with Kristoff in a small upset. Maybe he'll be more at home on the small cobbles of the Champs Elysees.