The last two editions of the Alp d'Huez have resulted in French triumph, with Pierre Rolland in 2011 and Christophe Riblon in 2013. Both are present again in this edition, and could try and go again for victory on this famous mountain.
The Course
This stage was changed after landslides on the Col du Galibier, which was originally scheduled along with the Col du Telegraph. Instead the riders will tackle the Col de la Croix de Fer (29 km, 5%) for a second time, this time taking a different route from the summit to descend down to the base of the Alpe d'Huez (13.8 km, 8.1%). The legendary climb contains 21 switchbacks and will be well known to the riders as it often features at the Tour. The fans that line the roads are truly a spectacle to behold, and the madness that reigns is one of the more bewildering and beautiful pictures of humanity.
The weather should be hot with minimal wind, and so it will be a day of struggling and attrition for the riders.
This stage was changed after landslides on the Col du Galibier, which was originally scheduled along with the Col du Telegraph. Instead the riders will tackle the Col de la Croix de Fer (29 km, 5%) for a second time, this time taking a different route from the summit to descend down to the base of the Alpe d'Huez (13.8 km, 8.1%). The legendary climb contains 21 switchbacks and will be well known to the riders as it often features at the Tour. The fans that line the roads are truly a spectacle to behold, and the madness that reigns is one of the more bewildering and beautiful pictures of humanity.
The weather should be hot with minimal wind, and so it will be a day of struggling and attrition for the riders.
The Tactics
After the fireworks on Stage 19, this stage should be comparatively sedate at the beginning, and I would expect the race to be a lot more controlled than what occurred on the previous stage. The initial descent to the foot of the first climb will be a welcome change for Team Sky, who exploded early on the first climb yesterday. I think that Movistar will again try to isolate Froome, most likely by driving the pace on the Col de la Croix de Fer, and on the lower slopes of Alpe d'Huez, before setting up another Quintana attack. They will also feel that Quintana has a good shot at the stage win, which will encourage them further.
There is the possibility that a move similar to Nibali's could go at the top of the Croix de Fer, but there is a flat section into the base of the Alpe d'Huez, which won't suit a lone attacker, or even a small group and should discourage aggressive moves.
I don't see it as being a day for the breakaway either, as I said, I expect the pace to be high throughout the climbs of the day for tactical reasons, which will have the effect of stopping the break from getting a big gap. The only thing that might change this is if the peleton do no chasing early, and Sky decide to let a big group gain a lot of time early on. This is a risky plan however, as team helpers that could be useful later on for opposition teams could slip away and come back to haunt Sky later, like Herrada, Kruiswijk and Kreuziger were able to today.
After the fireworks on Stage 19, this stage should be comparatively sedate at the beginning, and I would expect the race to be a lot more controlled than what occurred on the previous stage. The initial descent to the foot of the first climb will be a welcome change for Team Sky, who exploded early on the first climb yesterday. I think that Movistar will again try to isolate Froome, most likely by driving the pace on the Col de la Croix de Fer, and on the lower slopes of Alpe d'Huez, before setting up another Quintana attack. They will also feel that Quintana has a good shot at the stage win, which will encourage them further.
There is the possibility that a move similar to Nibali's could go at the top of the Croix de Fer, but there is a flat section into the base of the Alpe d'Huez, which won't suit a lone attacker, or even a small group and should discourage aggressive moves.
I don't see it as being a day for the breakaway either, as I said, I expect the pace to be high throughout the climbs of the day for tactical reasons, which will have the effect of stopping the break from getting a big gap. The only thing that might change this is if the peleton do no chasing early, and Sky decide to let a big group gain a lot of time early on. This is a risky plan however, as team helpers that could be useful later on for opposition teams could slip away and come back to haunt Sky later, like Herrada, Kruiswijk and Kreuziger were able to today.
Local Trivia
The Alpe d'Huez was the host of the 1968 Grenoble Winter Olympics bobsleigh event, which ended up being a bit of a disaster. The track was found to be thawing too quickly during the day, so the events had to be scheduled before sunrise, which resulted in competitors having start times at 3.00 a.m.
The Alpe d'Huez was the host of the 1968 Grenoble Winter Olympics bobsleigh event, which ended up being a bit of a disaster. The track was found to be thawing too quickly during the day, so the events had to be scheduled before sunrise, which resulted in competitors having start times at 3.00 a.m.
The Contenders
Nairo Quintana finally escaped the attentions of Chris Froome, and put half a minute into him over the course of 6 kilometres, partially on shallower terrain, which limited the amount of time he could take. On the Alpe d'Huez, he will be much more suited to the hard, unrelenting nature of the climb, and that could result in bigger time gaps for the diminutive Colombian. He did benefit from the race being run to suit however, with Froome isolated and having no effective support when Quintana attacked. To take two and a half minutes, Quintana will have to go early, and if Sky still have some riders in store at that stage, he may be wasting energy trying to get free when it isn't possible.
Chris Froome lost his first time to a direct rival on Stage 19, but he boxed on well to limit his losses, and when you compare his finish to the other GC contenders, he was putting significant time into them as well. He was pretty isolated from early in the stage, and he had to do quite a lot of work, responding to attacks and even setting the pace occasionally. This stage will be easier to control and I think it will be more set up to suit Froome's style or racing, and he can definitely reverse the result on Quintana.
Vincenzo Nibali took a strong win on the last stage, and whilst I think a similar move will be impossible, he looks to be climbing at a higher level than he has so far this Tour, and could win from a straight battle with the favourites. He won't be marked like Quintana will be, and he might even be allowed to sit on wheels if a rider goes free off the front, as he doesn't really threaten Froome or Quintana's position at the moment. He might be feeling the effects from his exploits on Stage 19, but he certainly didn't look tired at the top of the climb, and I'd expect him to go well again.
All the other climbers look a level below, and given the race situation, it looks unlikely that there will be a situation where a tactical stalemate is possible which would let a lesser climber win the stage. For a breakaway, the chances are again small, but maybe a rider like Bardet or Rodriguez can grab an unlikely victory.
Nairo Quintana finally escaped the attentions of Chris Froome, and put half a minute into him over the course of 6 kilometres, partially on shallower terrain, which limited the amount of time he could take. On the Alpe d'Huez, he will be much more suited to the hard, unrelenting nature of the climb, and that could result in bigger time gaps for the diminutive Colombian. He did benefit from the race being run to suit however, with Froome isolated and having no effective support when Quintana attacked. To take two and a half minutes, Quintana will have to go early, and if Sky still have some riders in store at that stage, he may be wasting energy trying to get free when it isn't possible.
Chris Froome lost his first time to a direct rival on Stage 19, but he boxed on well to limit his losses, and when you compare his finish to the other GC contenders, he was putting significant time into them as well. He was pretty isolated from early in the stage, and he had to do quite a lot of work, responding to attacks and even setting the pace occasionally. This stage will be easier to control and I think it will be more set up to suit Froome's style or racing, and he can definitely reverse the result on Quintana.
Vincenzo Nibali took a strong win on the last stage, and whilst I think a similar move will be impossible, he looks to be climbing at a higher level than he has so far this Tour, and could win from a straight battle with the favourites. He won't be marked like Quintana will be, and he might even be allowed to sit on wheels if a rider goes free off the front, as he doesn't really threaten Froome or Quintana's position at the moment. He might be feeling the effects from his exploits on Stage 19, but he certainly didn't look tired at the top of the climb, and I'd expect him to go well again.
All the other climbers look a level below, and given the race situation, it looks unlikely that there will be a situation where a tactical stalemate is possible which would let a lesser climber win the stage. For a breakaway, the chances are again small, but maybe a rider like Bardet or Rodriguez can grab an unlikely victory.
The Verdict
The race should suit Froome a lot more here than previously, and I think he will take a memorable win in yellow.
The race should suit Froome a lot more here than previously, and I think he will take a memorable win in yellow.