A day of scrambling for the GC contenders on Stage 18, but in the end it was largely status quo in the race for yellow. The summit finish on today's stage will see sparks fly again, but the climbing to the finish almost guarantees some gaps.
The Course
Three big climbs dominate the day's racing, with the Col du Chaussy (15.4, 6.3%) starting as soon as the flag is dropped by Christian Prudhomme. The descent from the summit takes the riders down to a relatively flat valley which the rdiers will traverse for 30 kilometres before arriving at the foot of the Col de la Croix de Fer (22.4 km, 6.9%) which surely ranks as one of the hardest climbs of the Tour. There's an easy descent form there into the Col du Mollard (5.7 km, 6.8%) and after that, another easy descent into the base of the final climb to the summit finish of La Toussuire (18 km, 6.1%).
The climbs tend of the side of being exceptionally long rather than exceptionally hard, but they will still be very difficult for riders after a long, hard Tour, particularly the 3rd quarter of the Col de la Croix Fer, which averages consistently above 9%. La Toussuire is hardest at the start, but gradually becomes easier, and is barely above 4% at the finish, so the strong climbers will need to make a difference before that point.
The weather is predicted to be fine, with a light wind from the northwest. This will swing around throughout the day, as the riders are essentially riding in a big loop throughout the stage, but significantly it will be a headwind for the final climb, albeit a light one.
Three big climbs dominate the day's racing, with the Col du Chaussy (15.4, 6.3%) starting as soon as the flag is dropped by Christian Prudhomme. The descent from the summit takes the riders down to a relatively flat valley which the rdiers will traverse for 30 kilometres before arriving at the foot of the Col de la Croix de Fer (22.4 km, 6.9%) which surely ranks as one of the hardest climbs of the Tour. There's an easy descent form there into the Col du Mollard (5.7 km, 6.8%) and after that, another easy descent into the base of the final climb to the summit finish of La Toussuire (18 km, 6.1%).
The climbs tend of the side of being exceptionally long rather than exceptionally hard, but they will still be very difficult for riders after a long, hard Tour, particularly the 3rd quarter of the Col de la Croix Fer, which averages consistently above 9%. La Toussuire is hardest at the start, but gradually becomes easier, and is barely above 4% at the finish, so the strong climbers will need to make a difference before that point.
The weather is predicted to be fine, with a light wind from the northwest. This will swing around throughout the day, as the riders are essentially riding in a big loop throughout the stage, but significantly it will be a headwind for the final climb, albeit a light one.
The Tactics
The breakaway is going to be hotly contested again on this stage, but the summit finish and the constant climbing make it less likely that the break will survive to the finish. I would expect the peleton to be going quite hard as early as the Col de la Croix de Fer, and infighting amongst the GC contenders is going to drive the pace up, and make it hard for the breakaway to survive. In addition, the type of stage finish lends itself to one of the GC contenders pushing for a stage victory, and if Movistar, Tinkoff-Saxo or Astana have given up on moving up on GC, they may decide to instead concentrate on taking a stage win instead. This was the tactic that Astana used at the Giro, netting them a total of 5 stage wins, and the one-two punch of Aru and Landa is very similar to the one offered by Valverde and Quintana.
If instead the Movistar pair opt to go on the attack, the third quarter of the Col de la Croix Fer could be the launching pad for a very ambitious move. It is a very long way to go to the finish from there, but it is entirely uphill or down, and the benefits of riding as part of a large group will be less. Of course Sky have been very good, and even when Froome hasn't been on top form, Thomas and Porte have been there to keep the race together. It is difficult to believe that Quintana or Valverde would be able to create a big enough gap, unless Froome was on an off day. La Toussuire is another climb which will favour the bold, with the harder gradients coming early and by the end it will be too easy for those marked riders to get a gap.
The breakaway is going to be hotly contested again on this stage, but the summit finish and the constant climbing make it less likely that the break will survive to the finish. I would expect the peleton to be going quite hard as early as the Col de la Croix de Fer, and infighting amongst the GC contenders is going to drive the pace up, and make it hard for the breakaway to survive. In addition, the type of stage finish lends itself to one of the GC contenders pushing for a stage victory, and if Movistar, Tinkoff-Saxo or Astana have given up on moving up on GC, they may decide to instead concentrate on taking a stage win instead. This was the tactic that Astana used at the Giro, netting them a total of 5 stage wins, and the one-two punch of Aru and Landa is very similar to the one offered by Valverde and Quintana.
If instead the Movistar pair opt to go on the attack, the third quarter of the Col de la Croix Fer could be the launching pad for a very ambitious move. It is a very long way to go to the finish from there, but it is entirely uphill or down, and the benefits of riding as part of a large group will be less. Of course Sky have been very good, and even when Froome hasn't been on top form, Thomas and Porte have been there to keep the race together. It is difficult to believe that Quintana or Valverde would be able to create a big enough gap, unless Froome was on an off day. La Toussuire is another climb which will favour the bold, with the harder gradients coming early and by the end it will be too easy for those marked riders to get a gap.
Local Trivia
The emblem of the region is of a hand raised in blessing, and dates from the seventh century A.D. when the local church housed the religious relic, the finger bones of Saint Jean-Pierre, who was reputed to have baptised Christ.
The emblem of the region is of a hand raised in blessing, and dates from the seventh century A.D. when the local church housed the religious relic, the finger bones of Saint Jean-Pierre, who was reputed to have baptised Christ.
The Contenders
Chris Froome sits deservedly in the lead of the Tour, the best climber in the best team, and he might be keen to stamp his authority on the race with a win on the stage. His team won't work to bring the race back together, as adding the bonus seconds into the equation just increases the amount of time that the Movistar pair can recover on Froome if they happen to beat the Brit. He probably won't be of a particularly attacking mindset which will be needed to win the stage, but he could hang on to attacks and then go over the top if he is feeling strong. The finale of the stage doesn't particularly suit Froome either, who is not the fastest at sprinting on the shallower gradients.
Nairo Quintana has looked to be in very impressive form so far this Tour, taking the attack up to Froome in recent days, but not quite having the race run to suit. He'll be well suited to the longer climbs on the menu today, and he'll be looking to go on the attack to try and take the yellow jersey from Froome. That could help his bid for a stage win, as I said above the profiles of the climbs favour those who are prepared to go from afar.
Alejandro Valverde will probably take a back seat for this one, as he will be one who is well suited to the finishing sprint. It really is the experienced Spaniard's bread and butter, as he has a really impressive sprint, that has won him a lot of Classics races, and, in addition he is one of the top climbers in the world. His form is very good, and has been improving throughout the race, so he possibly will be coming in stronger than earlier in the race.
Alberto Contador knows that the race for yellow is over for him, so he will be trying to take a stage win. I'm not sure what sort of strategy he will try to employ to achieve that, but, when in doubt, you can assume that Contador will attack. Maybe a move on the Category 2 Col du Mollard? It could catch the other stage hunters out and the descent leads straight into the foot of the final climb.
Joaquim Rodriguez is one of the top climbers here, but he has been spending a lot of energy in the breaks, and I think he'll be conserving his energy for the Alp d'Huez, which is going to be critical in the outcome of the mountains jersey. He cracked just before the top of the Col du Glandon which cost him a lot of points in the mountains battle, and may cost him the chance of finishing with the jersey.
Shaping as potential mountains jersey contenders are Jakob Fuglsang, Romain Bardet and perhaps even Serge Pauwels. All have been involved in a lot of breakaways already and will likely be quite fatigued but expect them to at least to try and get into the breakaway.
Robert Gesink has been admirably hanging on for pretty much the entire Tour, and if he can continue to do so he may get a shot at a stage win here. He's going to be riding defensively for most of the stage, trying to protect his superb GC position, but if he can make it to the top of La Toussuire, he could make use of the easier gradients and a possible tactical stalemate between the main contenders to take a stage win.
Warren Barguil's Giant-Alpecin team were keen to bring back the break on stage 18 to give the Frenchman a chance at winning the race, but unfortunately his supporting cast isn't the strongest on the climbs and they ran out of puff at the foot of the Col du Glandon. Unfortunately, for him, the pace slacked off after Sky took over, and Barguil wasn't able to get into a spot where he could launch a winning attack. He did give it a go, but despite being joined by a number of other riders, the move never looked like being a winning one. On this stage, however, he can probably rely on the other teams to bring him into the race, and if he has the legs, he will have a good chance at taking a memorable win. He has been climbing very well so far, fairly consistently maintaining his position in the Top 10, and earning the tag of least disappointing Frenchman.
Chris Froome sits deservedly in the lead of the Tour, the best climber in the best team, and he might be keen to stamp his authority on the race with a win on the stage. His team won't work to bring the race back together, as adding the bonus seconds into the equation just increases the amount of time that the Movistar pair can recover on Froome if they happen to beat the Brit. He probably won't be of a particularly attacking mindset which will be needed to win the stage, but he could hang on to attacks and then go over the top if he is feeling strong. The finale of the stage doesn't particularly suit Froome either, who is not the fastest at sprinting on the shallower gradients.
Nairo Quintana has looked to be in very impressive form so far this Tour, taking the attack up to Froome in recent days, but not quite having the race run to suit. He'll be well suited to the longer climbs on the menu today, and he'll be looking to go on the attack to try and take the yellow jersey from Froome. That could help his bid for a stage win, as I said above the profiles of the climbs favour those who are prepared to go from afar.
Alejandro Valverde will probably take a back seat for this one, as he will be one who is well suited to the finishing sprint. It really is the experienced Spaniard's bread and butter, as he has a really impressive sprint, that has won him a lot of Classics races, and, in addition he is one of the top climbers in the world. His form is very good, and has been improving throughout the race, so he possibly will be coming in stronger than earlier in the race.
Alberto Contador knows that the race for yellow is over for him, so he will be trying to take a stage win. I'm not sure what sort of strategy he will try to employ to achieve that, but, when in doubt, you can assume that Contador will attack. Maybe a move on the Category 2 Col du Mollard? It could catch the other stage hunters out and the descent leads straight into the foot of the final climb.
Joaquim Rodriguez is one of the top climbers here, but he has been spending a lot of energy in the breaks, and I think he'll be conserving his energy for the Alp d'Huez, which is going to be critical in the outcome of the mountains jersey. He cracked just before the top of the Col du Glandon which cost him a lot of points in the mountains battle, and may cost him the chance of finishing with the jersey.
Shaping as potential mountains jersey contenders are Jakob Fuglsang, Romain Bardet and perhaps even Serge Pauwels. All have been involved in a lot of breakaways already and will likely be quite fatigued but expect them to at least to try and get into the breakaway.
Robert Gesink has been admirably hanging on for pretty much the entire Tour, and if he can continue to do so he may get a shot at a stage win here. He's going to be riding defensively for most of the stage, trying to protect his superb GC position, but if he can make it to the top of La Toussuire, he could make use of the easier gradients and a possible tactical stalemate between the main contenders to take a stage win.
Warren Barguil's Giant-Alpecin team were keen to bring back the break on stage 18 to give the Frenchman a chance at winning the race, but unfortunately his supporting cast isn't the strongest on the climbs and they ran out of puff at the foot of the Col du Glandon. Unfortunately, for him, the pace slacked off after Sky took over, and Barguil wasn't able to get into a spot where he could launch a winning attack. He did give it a go, but despite being joined by a number of other riders, the move never looked like being a winning one. On this stage, however, he can probably rely on the other teams to bring him into the race, and if he has the legs, he will have a good chance at taking a memorable win. He has been climbing very well so far, fairly consistently maintaining his position in the Top 10, and earning the tag of least disappointing Frenchman.
The Verdict
Robert Gesink doesn't often win, but then again he's rarely in this good form. I think it will be difficult for the main riders to make a difference on the final climb and it may be that a tactical impasse will happen, which will allow the Dutchman to win.
Robert Gesink doesn't often win, but then again he's rarely in this good form. I think it will be difficult for the main riders to make a difference on the final climb and it may be that a tactical impasse will happen, which will allow the Dutchman to win.