An exciting last stage looks like it will only be topped here, as some really attacking racing by the main contenders could be on the cards. Even if that doesn't occur, it will be an interesting fight amongst the breakaway, with a lot of the top climbers likely to join the early escape.
The Course
The tests keep on getting harder and harder for the peleton, and though the lack of a finishing climb may make many think that this will be an easier stage, it will encourage long range moves and it could be raced at a breakneck pace throughout.
The Col Bayard (6.3 km, 7%) will make sure the stage kicks off with a bang, as it starts from kilometre zero and will be a tough test that could immediately create gaps.
It is comparitively straightforward racing after that, there are a succession of steep but short climbs, but the terrain is quite flat for the most part. The Rampe du Motty (2.3 km, 8.3%), the Cote de la Mure (2.7 km, 7.5%), the Col de Malissol (2 km, 8.7%) and the Col de la Morte (3.1 km, 8.4%) aren't the main fare of the day, but they could prove a launching pad for attacks if the racing is really aggressive. It is a long way to go at this point, however, and with the rest of the terrain fairly easy to control into the base of the Col du Glandon, only the most ambitious will try solo moves on these climbs. The Col du Glandon (21.7 km, 5.1%) is the main meal for the day, and it is a very interesting climb, as it contains two descents within the climb proper, and has wildly fluctuating gradients throughout. It will be impossible to get into a rhythm for the non-climbers, and it should be a superb stage for the purists to showcase their talents. The descent from the top of the Col du Glandon is a long one, and it is a lot easier than Stage 17's descent from the Col d'Allos. At the end of the descent, it is a few bare kilometres into the final climb of the day the Lacets de Montvernier (3.4 km, 8.2%) which, like the earlier climbs of the day, is steep and short. It will likely be the last chance to make a difference for the riders in contention for the stage win or the GC, as the descent from there is quite short and leads into a flat final 4 kilometres. The final 500m does have a kick up towards the line of 4%, meaning that any sprint will be more about strength than pure speed.
The tests keep on getting harder and harder for the peleton, and though the lack of a finishing climb may make many think that this will be an easier stage, it will encourage long range moves and it could be raced at a breakneck pace throughout.
The Col Bayard (6.3 km, 7%) will make sure the stage kicks off with a bang, as it starts from kilometre zero and will be a tough test that could immediately create gaps.
It is comparitively straightforward racing after that, there are a succession of steep but short climbs, but the terrain is quite flat for the most part. The Rampe du Motty (2.3 km, 8.3%), the Cote de la Mure (2.7 km, 7.5%), the Col de Malissol (2 km, 8.7%) and the Col de la Morte (3.1 km, 8.4%) aren't the main fare of the day, but they could prove a launching pad for attacks if the racing is really aggressive. It is a long way to go at this point, however, and with the rest of the terrain fairly easy to control into the base of the Col du Glandon, only the most ambitious will try solo moves on these climbs. The Col du Glandon (21.7 km, 5.1%) is the main meal for the day, and it is a very interesting climb, as it contains two descents within the climb proper, and has wildly fluctuating gradients throughout. It will be impossible to get into a rhythm for the non-climbers, and it should be a superb stage for the purists to showcase their talents. The descent from the top of the Col du Glandon is a long one, and it is a lot easier than Stage 17's descent from the Col d'Allos. At the end of the descent, it is a few bare kilometres into the final climb of the day the Lacets de Montvernier (3.4 km, 8.2%) which, like the earlier climbs of the day, is steep and short. It will likely be the last chance to make a difference for the riders in contention for the stage win or the GC, as the descent from there is quite short and leads into a flat final 4 kilometres. The final 500m does have a kick up towards the line of 4%, meaning that any sprint will be more about strength than pure speed.
The Tactics
If Stage 17's theatrics were anything to go by, this stage could be a thrilling watch, with a lot of scrapping at the start to establish the breakaway.
In Stage 17, all of the major teams got riders in the early move, and these were of a bit of use later in the stage.
Examples include Richie Porte dropping back to pace Froome over the top of the Col d'Allos, and then going further back to help Geraint Thomas move up to 4th overall on GC. Jesus Herrada and Gorka Izaguirre drove the pace for their team leaders after Contador crashed, essentially ensuring that there will be two Movistar riders on the podium.
Michael Rogers was a less successful example, he took out his team leader in the crash, and won't be the most popular guy in the Tinkoff-Saxo bus.
In any case it is valuable to have a rider or two in those sort of big moves, and the big teams often try it to support aggressive moves by their team's protagonists.
With these sort of group compositions, it is important that no team gets left out, or the move won't be allowed to go at all.
The alternative is that a smaller group with none of the important teams goes, but with so much on the line, it would seem more likely that the major teams will try and slip riders into moves.
Once the break was finally established on Stage 17, and the suicidal attacks from Contador and Valverde were brought back, the gap to the break blew right out, as Sky don't have any particular interest in making the race hard, and the other teams didn't want to stretch their riders to breaking point.
I would expect a similar dynamic to this stage, but I wouldn't entirely discount the possibility of Contador going crazy very early on and the race simply exploding from early in the piece.
With the early climb being pretty difficult, I would expect that the break is only going to be populated by the good climbers, but it will be important for any stage winning candidate to have good classics skills, as much of the terrain and the climbing is more reminiscent of Liege Bastogne Liege than a traditional Alps stage.
The exception to this in the Col du Glandon, which is one for the pure climbers, with is constantly changing gradients and extreme length, it will likely be where the winning move is launched.
On Stage 17 Simon Geschke anticipated the better climbers in his group and then held them off into the finish, but that will be a lot harder on this climb, and I expect one of the top climbers to win this stage.
It will be interesting to see which riders high up on GC are allowed freedom, with most essentially unable to challenge Froome for yellow, but there will be a bit on infighting amongst the top GC riders if positions are threatened.
If Stage 17's theatrics were anything to go by, this stage could be a thrilling watch, with a lot of scrapping at the start to establish the breakaway.
In Stage 17, all of the major teams got riders in the early move, and these were of a bit of use later in the stage.
Examples include Richie Porte dropping back to pace Froome over the top of the Col d'Allos, and then going further back to help Geraint Thomas move up to 4th overall on GC. Jesus Herrada and Gorka Izaguirre drove the pace for their team leaders after Contador crashed, essentially ensuring that there will be two Movistar riders on the podium.
Michael Rogers was a less successful example, he took out his team leader in the crash, and won't be the most popular guy in the Tinkoff-Saxo bus.
In any case it is valuable to have a rider or two in those sort of big moves, and the big teams often try it to support aggressive moves by their team's protagonists.
With these sort of group compositions, it is important that no team gets left out, or the move won't be allowed to go at all.
The alternative is that a smaller group with none of the important teams goes, but with so much on the line, it would seem more likely that the major teams will try and slip riders into moves.
Once the break was finally established on Stage 17, and the suicidal attacks from Contador and Valverde were brought back, the gap to the break blew right out, as Sky don't have any particular interest in making the race hard, and the other teams didn't want to stretch their riders to breaking point.
I would expect a similar dynamic to this stage, but I wouldn't entirely discount the possibility of Contador going crazy very early on and the race simply exploding from early in the piece.
With the early climb being pretty difficult, I would expect that the break is only going to be populated by the good climbers, but it will be important for any stage winning candidate to have good classics skills, as much of the terrain and the climbing is more reminiscent of Liege Bastogne Liege than a traditional Alps stage.
The exception to this in the Col du Glandon, which is one for the pure climbers, with is constantly changing gradients and extreme length, it will likely be where the winning move is launched.
On Stage 17 Simon Geschke anticipated the better climbers in his group and then held them off into the finish, but that will be a lot harder on this climb, and I expect one of the top climbers to win this stage.
It will be interesting to see which riders high up on GC are allowed freedom, with most essentially unable to challenge Froome for yellow, but there will be a bit on infighting amongst the top GC riders if positions are threatened.
The Contenders
Joaquim Rodriguez has been looking to get himself in moves for a few stages now, but the climb at the start will make it easier than before for the dual stage-winning Spaniard.
He has already shown himself to be in really good form, and he will be well suited to the course, with its steep climbs reminiscent of a classics course, a discipline in which Purito excels.
He is also a very good climber, and he'll really appreciate the Col du Glandon's uneven ascent.
He's a strong candidate for the win, but it's possible that he'll miss the break, or opt to save his energy for later stages, in particular up to Alp d'Huez, which will be decisive for the mountains jersey.
Bauke Mollema lost quite a bit of time on Stage 17, but that might help him take a stage win here, as he may be allowed into the breakaway.
Mollema is climbing very well at the moment, and he'll be hard to match if he makes the move.
Of course he may not choose to go in the break, as he'll be pretty tired from his efforts on Stage 17, and it is also probable that he won't be allowed to ride away by teams like IAM and Lotto NL- Jumbo who will want to protect their riders GC position.
Jakob Fuglsang has had a pretty active race, getting involved in a few moves and doing a lot of work for Nibali, but he should have some freedom now that Nibali's quest for yellow is essentially over.
He's a solid classics rider and a very good climber, and he'll be tough to beat if he can successfully make a break.
I wouldn't say that he has the best climbing ability in the race, but he is tough and a canny racer so even if he is in a break with superior riders, I wouldn't count him out for a shot at the win.
Pierre Rolland is climbing a lot better than I had expected him to in this Tour, and he may well continue to confound expectations by winning a stage here.
He has a pretty good ability at getting in breakaways, and with the way he has been climbing this Tour, he can finish it off with a win.
Thibaut Pinot was only kept from winning on Stage 17 by his poor descent from the Col d'Allos, but here he won't have the same problem, as the descents on this stage are relatively easy.
He is climbing up there with the best at the moment, and he could take an elusive stage win after just missing out on a few occasions now.
Robert Gesink is probably the highest rider on GC who might be given some leeway in a break, particularly if the start of the stage is chaotic. He's in an interesting spot on GC, he is far enough down that he isn't a huge threat to Froome, but he's far enough ahead of the likes of Frank and Mollema that they won't have their teams chase Gesink down.
Movistar will have the initial job of doing the work if the Dutchman goes in a break, as it is their positions that will be threatened first, and Sky will be happy to see another team having to do the work for them, but Gesink will be a tough customer to pull back in and he could make a big move on a stage like today.
That fantastical scenario aside, he will probably have little chance, as he has been consistently just below the major GC contenders on the climbs to date.
He has defied all expectations to be well up there in the GC fight, and despite often getting dropped before the main action kicks off, he battles on at his own pace to always limit his time losses.
He's not a particularly prodigious winner of races, but it has been a long time since he's been in such good form, so he'll be keen to give himself a shot at a stage win.
Tony Gallopin lost a lot of time on Stage 17, but if he is recovered, he will find this stage very much to his liking.
He is a strong classics rider, excelling on the steeper gradients, and he also a good winner from breakaways.
I'm not convinced that he will recover from his poor showing in the stage to Pra Loup, but if he can bounce back, he will be right in contention on this style of stage.
Samuel Sanchez has turned back the clock in this Tour, at first providing great support for Tejay Van Garderen in the mountains, but also maintaining a decent GC position for himself.
He now sits in 13th, and tomorrow looks like a good stage for him to go on the attack.
It has been a long time since he actually won a race, but he is riding in some top form at the moment, and could well take a memorable win if he is given the chance.
Of the GC contenders at the top end, I'd back Quintana to take some time back on Froome.
He looks in really ominous form, and he has been the one taking up the attack in recent days at the hardest points.
Joaquim Rodriguez has been looking to get himself in moves for a few stages now, but the climb at the start will make it easier than before for the dual stage-winning Spaniard.
He has already shown himself to be in really good form, and he will be well suited to the course, with its steep climbs reminiscent of a classics course, a discipline in which Purito excels.
He is also a very good climber, and he'll really appreciate the Col du Glandon's uneven ascent.
He's a strong candidate for the win, but it's possible that he'll miss the break, or opt to save his energy for later stages, in particular up to Alp d'Huez, which will be decisive for the mountains jersey.
Bauke Mollema lost quite a bit of time on Stage 17, but that might help him take a stage win here, as he may be allowed into the breakaway.
Mollema is climbing very well at the moment, and he'll be hard to match if he makes the move.
Of course he may not choose to go in the break, as he'll be pretty tired from his efforts on Stage 17, and it is also probable that he won't be allowed to ride away by teams like IAM and Lotto NL- Jumbo who will want to protect their riders GC position.
Jakob Fuglsang has had a pretty active race, getting involved in a few moves and doing a lot of work for Nibali, but he should have some freedom now that Nibali's quest for yellow is essentially over.
He's a solid classics rider and a very good climber, and he'll be tough to beat if he can successfully make a break.
I wouldn't say that he has the best climbing ability in the race, but he is tough and a canny racer so even if he is in a break with superior riders, I wouldn't count him out for a shot at the win.
Pierre Rolland is climbing a lot better than I had expected him to in this Tour, and he may well continue to confound expectations by winning a stage here.
He has a pretty good ability at getting in breakaways, and with the way he has been climbing this Tour, he can finish it off with a win.
Thibaut Pinot was only kept from winning on Stage 17 by his poor descent from the Col d'Allos, but here he won't have the same problem, as the descents on this stage are relatively easy.
He is climbing up there with the best at the moment, and he could take an elusive stage win after just missing out on a few occasions now.
Robert Gesink is probably the highest rider on GC who might be given some leeway in a break, particularly if the start of the stage is chaotic. He's in an interesting spot on GC, he is far enough down that he isn't a huge threat to Froome, but he's far enough ahead of the likes of Frank and Mollema that they won't have their teams chase Gesink down.
Movistar will have the initial job of doing the work if the Dutchman goes in a break, as it is their positions that will be threatened first, and Sky will be happy to see another team having to do the work for them, but Gesink will be a tough customer to pull back in and he could make a big move on a stage like today.
That fantastical scenario aside, he will probably have little chance, as he has been consistently just below the major GC contenders on the climbs to date.
He has defied all expectations to be well up there in the GC fight, and despite often getting dropped before the main action kicks off, he battles on at his own pace to always limit his time losses.
He's not a particularly prodigious winner of races, but it has been a long time since he's been in such good form, so he'll be keen to give himself a shot at a stage win.
Tony Gallopin lost a lot of time on Stage 17, but if he is recovered, he will find this stage very much to his liking.
He is a strong classics rider, excelling on the steeper gradients, and he also a good winner from breakaways.
I'm not convinced that he will recover from his poor showing in the stage to Pra Loup, but if he can bounce back, he will be right in contention on this style of stage.
Samuel Sanchez has turned back the clock in this Tour, at first providing great support for Tejay Van Garderen in the mountains, but also maintaining a decent GC position for himself.
He now sits in 13th, and tomorrow looks like a good stage for him to go on the attack.
It has been a long time since he actually won a race, but he is riding in some top form at the moment, and could well take a memorable win if he is given the chance.
Of the GC contenders at the top end, I'd back Quintana to take some time back on Froome.
He looks in really ominous form, and he has been the one taking up the attack in recent days at the hardest points.
The Verdict
It's hard to go past Rodriguez here, he has been saving energy where others have been spending it, and he'll be raring to go again after a few stages off.
It's hard to go past Rodriguez here, he has been saving energy where others have been spending it, and he'll be raring to go again after a few stages off.