As seen in the Dauphine! This stage is an exact replica of the Dauphine stage where Romain Bardet escaped on the descent and then held off the peleton on the final climb. Behind him, Tejay Van Garderen caused an upset as he overtook Chris Froome in the final kilometre and let off a warning that he would be in good form for the Tour.
The Course
It's not a particularly hard day in terms of climbing today, the initial climbs aren't tough, and the main thing that will trouble the riders is the altitude, with the second half of the stage all 1000m above sea level, and the Col d'Allos topping out at 2250m above. The Col d'Allos (14 km, 5.5%) is the most significant climb of the stage as well, its first 8 km are relatively easy, but the final 6 km average a more respectable 7%. That 6 km of climbing to the summit and the subsequent descent are likely to be the key point of the stage, as it is the hardest climbing of the day, followed by a very technical descent, Romain Bardet showed in the Dauphine that it is possible to put over a minute into slower descenders on the descent. The final climb to the summit finish in Pra Loup (6.2 km, 6.5%) isn't overly hard, but it is tough enough that good climbers will be able to make up time lost on the descent. The final kilometre is also tricky at 8%, and will be where the final showdown for victory will occur, if there isn't a lone escapee.
It's not a particularly hard day in terms of climbing today, the initial climbs aren't tough, and the main thing that will trouble the riders is the altitude, with the second half of the stage all 1000m above sea level, and the Col d'Allos topping out at 2250m above. The Col d'Allos (14 km, 5.5%) is the most significant climb of the stage as well, its first 8 km are relatively easy, but the final 6 km average a more respectable 7%. That 6 km of climbing to the summit and the subsequent descent are likely to be the key point of the stage, as it is the hardest climbing of the day, followed by a very technical descent, Romain Bardet showed in the Dauphine that it is possible to put over a minute into slower descenders on the descent. The final climb to the summit finish in Pra Loup (6.2 km, 6.5%) isn't overly hard, but it is tough enough that good climbers will be able to make up time lost on the descent. The final kilometre is also tricky at 8%, and will be where the final showdown for victory will occur, if there isn't a lone escapee.
The Tactics
All the contenders have reaffirmed their commitment to attack in this race, and today's stage offers a good opportunity for that. The top of the Col d'Allos is tough enough to create a gap and the descent will offer an opportunity to widen any gaps created. With only a short/medium length climb up to Pra Loup to finish, the penultimate climb and subsequent descent could be the scene for a lot of attacking today.
Of the contenders, most are pretty good descenders, but Nibali and Valverde are probably the standouts, with Quintana being the weakest. This is more to inform than say who will go on the attack when or where, for instance Quintana may look to attack earlier because he knows that he doesn't quite have the same bike skills as the others, or he may sit back and follow wheels whilst Valverde takes the lead in attacking. Certainly it will be interesting to see how the dynamics change as the riders attack.
In terms of whether the GC contenders will win the stage, I think that it is likely that they will be fighting it out for the stage win. Sky have no interest in seeing the break come back, and, as we have seen on previous stages, they are happy to merely keep any moves from gaining ridiculous advantages. It will be up to the other teams to contribute to the chase, but I think that they will on this occasion, as they have been very clear that they are backing their men to be able to catch up to Froome on GC, and that will mean taking every little advantage available to them, including bonus seconds.
All the contenders have reaffirmed their commitment to attack in this race, and today's stage offers a good opportunity for that. The top of the Col d'Allos is tough enough to create a gap and the descent will offer an opportunity to widen any gaps created. With only a short/medium length climb up to Pra Loup to finish, the penultimate climb and subsequent descent could be the scene for a lot of attacking today.
Of the contenders, most are pretty good descenders, but Nibali and Valverde are probably the standouts, with Quintana being the weakest. This is more to inform than say who will go on the attack when or where, for instance Quintana may look to attack earlier because he knows that he doesn't quite have the same bike skills as the others, or he may sit back and follow wheels whilst Valverde takes the lead in attacking. Certainly it will be interesting to see how the dynamics change as the riders attack.
In terms of whether the GC contenders will win the stage, I think that it is likely that they will be fighting it out for the stage win. Sky have no interest in seeing the break come back, and, as we have seen on previous stages, they are happy to merely keep any moves from gaining ridiculous advantages. It will be up to the other teams to contribute to the chase, but I think that they will on this occasion, as they have been very clear that they are backing their men to be able to catch up to Froome on GC, and that will mean taking every little advantage available to them, including bonus seconds.
Local Trivia
The starting town of Digne-les-Bains is part of the famed Route Napoleon, which follows the course that Napoleon took after his return from his first exile on Elba. He landed on the south coast of France, treated as a returning hero by his army, and swept up the countryside to Paris, where he again took control of France. He was swiftly deposed after he lost the famed Battle of Waterloo, but he is still remembered as a Romantic figure in French history, and the Route Napoleon is marked with the French Imperial Eagles that were symbol of his rule.
The starting town of Digne-les-Bains is part of the famed Route Napoleon, which follows the course that Napoleon took after his return from his first exile on Elba. He landed on the south coast of France, treated as a returning hero by his army, and swept up the countryside to Paris, where he again took control of France. He was swiftly deposed after he lost the famed Battle of Waterloo, but he is still remembered as a Romantic figure in French history, and the Route Napoleon is marked with the French Imperial Eagles that were symbol of his rule.
The Contenders
As stated above, I think it will be a showdown between the favourites for the stage win, but I'm not completely sold, call it a 70-30 likelihood. Look for riders like Emanuel Buchmann, Dan Martin, Michal Kwiatkowski, the Yates brothers, Ryder Hesjedal and Rafael Valls if the break does survive. I also think that Joaquim Rodriguez has got another stage win in him as well, but he'll want to save his energies for the stages with more mountains points on offer. There's only really a potential 25 points on the line here, whilst there will be up to 85 available on the following stages.
Alejandro Valverde looks very well suited to this stage, he is a superb bike handler, is climbing very well at the moments, and will benefit from the tactical flexibility that Nairo Quintana's elevated position allows. Quintana isn't well suited to the stage, the climbing isn't as hard as he would like, and he isn't a great descender, so Valverde will probably take the lead in attacking on this stage. Even if he is contained in his attacks, he will have another shot at winning, as he has the fastest finishing burst of the favourites, and will be the favourite if the race is all together at the finish.
Alberto Contador is quite a ways back on GC, but he has stated that he'll be gunning for the top step on the podium, and to do that he'll need to attack. This stage offers a good opportunity for that, and I'd expect him to attack multiple times on the ascent of the Col d'Allos, and keep on attacking on the descent, even if he can't get a gap. He isn't in bad form, he probably would have taken time on Froome on the Plateau de Beille if there hadn't been a headwind, and even then, it was only Geraint Thomas that prevented him escaping. The conditions should be much better suited to an attack here.
Vincenzo Nibali has had a disappointing Tour so far, but will hoping that this course and his time loss will give him a bit more freedom to go on the attack and take the stage. He is a superb descender, and I would expect him to distance most of the main favourites here, with probably Valverde, Rodriguez and maybe Contador the riders with the best chance of keeping up. He will need to be climbing better than he has been, but he is superb at recovery and could be feeling better in this third week.
Chris Froome will be on the defensive today, but could take a win if the race is together on the final climb. Personally, I believe that he will too tired by having to constantly respond to attacks, but it is possible that his team will be able to handle the worst of it, leaving Froome to have a good shot at winning if it comes in all together to the bottom of the final climb.
Tejay Van Garderen was strong on the Dauphine stage here, beating Froome on the final climb, looking like he might win the overall GC in the process. He has been solid if unspectacular this Tour, and that is due to his fairly dour riding style, where he sticks to his own tempo, not really having the turn of pace to follow attacks or make his own. I doubt that he'll win this stage, and I actually predict him to drop down the GC a bit, as he doesn't have the same history in the third week of Grand Tours as the other contenders have.
As stated above, I think it will be a showdown between the favourites for the stage win, but I'm not completely sold, call it a 70-30 likelihood. Look for riders like Emanuel Buchmann, Dan Martin, Michal Kwiatkowski, the Yates brothers, Ryder Hesjedal and Rafael Valls if the break does survive. I also think that Joaquim Rodriguez has got another stage win in him as well, but he'll want to save his energies for the stages with more mountains points on offer. There's only really a potential 25 points on the line here, whilst there will be up to 85 available on the following stages.
Alejandro Valverde looks very well suited to this stage, he is a superb bike handler, is climbing very well at the moments, and will benefit from the tactical flexibility that Nairo Quintana's elevated position allows. Quintana isn't well suited to the stage, the climbing isn't as hard as he would like, and he isn't a great descender, so Valverde will probably take the lead in attacking on this stage. Even if he is contained in his attacks, he will have another shot at winning, as he has the fastest finishing burst of the favourites, and will be the favourite if the race is all together at the finish.
Alberto Contador is quite a ways back on GC, but he has stated that he'll be gunning for the top step on the podium, and to do that he'll need to attack. This stage offers a good opportunity for that, and I'd expect him to attack multiple times on the ascent of the Col d'Allos, and keep on attacking on the descent, even if he can't get a gap. He isn't in bad form, he probably would have taken time on Froome on the Plateau de Beille if there hadn't been a headwind, and even then, it was only Geraint Thomas that prevented him escaping. The conditions should be much better suited to an attack here.
Vincenzo Nibali has had a disappointing Tour so far, but will hoping that this course and his time loss will give him a bit more freedom to go on the attack and take the stage. He is a superb descender, and I would expect him to distance most of the main favourites here, with probably Valverde, Rodriguez and maybe Contador the riders with the best chance of keeping up. He will need to be climbing better than he has been, but he is superb at recovery and could be feeling better in this third week.
Chris Froome will be on the defensive today, but could take a win if the race is together on the final climb. Personally, I believe that he will too tired by having to constantly respond to attacks, but it is possible that his team will be able to handle the worst of it, leaving Froome to have a good shot at winning if it comes in all together to the bottom of the final climb.
Tejay Van Garderen was strong on the Dauphine stage here, beating Froome on the final climb, looking like he might win the overall GC in the process. He has been solid if unspectacular this Tour, and that is due to his fairly dour riding style, where he sticks to his own tempo, not really having the turn of pace to follow attacks or make his own. I doubt that he'll win this stage, and I actually predict him to drop down the GC a bit, as he doesn't have the same history in the third week of Grand Tours as the other contenders have.
The Verdict
Alejandro Valverde has all the right attributes for this stage, and I think he'll be the card of choice for Movistar here.
Alejandro Valverde has all the right attributes for this stage, and I think he'll be the card of choice for Movistar here.