The stage into Gap is always a day for the breakaway, and it has become a fairly regular feature of the Tour. The final descent into Gap may also be the scene for attacks by the favourites.
The Course
An intermediate mountains day here, and the climbs of Col de Cabre (9.1 km, 4.6%) and the Col de Manse (8.9 km, 5.6%) aren't really hard enough to form gaps between the GC contenders. The descent to Gap is technical and fast, and the winning move is made there as often as on the Col de Manse. Certainly it requires a good descender to win this stage.
An intermediate mountains day here, and the climbs of Col de Cabre (9.1 km, 4.6%) and the Col de Manse (8.9 km, 5.6%) aren't really hard enough to form gaps between the GC contenders. The descent to Gap is technical and fast, and the winning move is made there as often as on the Col de Manse. Certainly it requires a good descender to win this stage.
The Tactics
The reason that the Gap stage almost always ends in a breakaway win is the fact the final climbs are too hard for the sprinters, and not hard enough for the GC contenders. It is difficult for the teams in the peleton to muster up enough will to properly chase the break, and as long as the composition isn't dangerous and no significant teams have missed the move a big group will be allowed to ride away.
The first 50 kilometres of the stage are likely to be hotly contested, as riders jockey to make the break and contest the stage win. The stage winning move will be started on the Col de Manse, so it will require a strong climber to follow wheels there, but descending abilities are also going to be crucial, with the descent into Gap a chance to make up time or attack.
The reason that the Gap stage almost always ends in a breakaway win is the fact the final climbs are too hard for the sprinters, and not hard enough for the GC contenders. It is difficult for the teams in the peleton to muster up enough will to properly chase the break, and as long as the composition isn't dangerous and no significant teams have missed the move a big group will be allowed to ride away.
The first 50 kilometres of the stage are likely to be hotly contested, as riders jockey to make the break and contest the stage win. The stage winning move will be started on the Col de Manse, so it will require a strong climber to follow wheels there, but descending abilities are also going to be crucial, with the descent into Gap a chance to make up time or attack.
The Contenders
I've said that it's a day for the breakaway, but if Astana, Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo work together, they could bring it back together to attack Froome on the descent. Froome is by no means a poor descender, but Valverde and Nibali in particular are superb bike handlers, and have histories of attacking on downhill runs. Contador is more of a risk taker than a great bike handler, but he won't be content to sit back and let the GC battle go without a fight. He showcased his descending ability when he dropped Quintana in the Route de Sud, and the tiny Colombian could find himself on the back foot here again.
For the breakaway it's the normal lottery pick of riders, basically you want an all-rounder, who has the strength to make the initial breakaway on the flat, has the climbing ability to make the difference up the Col de Manse and the bike-handling ability to descend on the run into Gap. Jan Bakelants, Tim Wellens, Jakob Fuglsang, Adam Hansen, Greg Van Avermaet, Daniel Martin, Andrew Talansky, Lieuwe Westra, Michael Valgren, Bob Jungels, Gorka Izaguirre, Giampaolo Caruso, Tiago Machado, Pieter Weening, Michal Kwiatkowski, Zdenek Stybar, Thomas Voeckler, Cyril Gautier, Wilco Kelderman, Steven Kruiswijk, Paul Martens, Kristijan Durasek, Nathan Haas, Daniel Navarro, Jerome Coppel, Jarlinson Pantano, Emanuel Buchmann, Steve Cummings and Louis Meintjes.
I've said that it's a day for the breakaway, but if Astana, Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo work together, they could bring it back together to attack Froome on the descent. Froome is by no means a poor descender, but Valverde and Nibali in particular are superb bike handlers, and have histories of attacking on downhill runs. Contador is more of a risk taker than a great bike handler, but he won't be content to sit back and let the GC battle go without a fight. He showcased his descending ability when he dropped Quintana in the Route de Sud, and the tiny Colombian could find himself on the back foot here again.
For the breakaway it's the normal lottery pick of riders, basically you want an all-rounder, who has the strength to make the initial breakaway on the flat, has the climbing ability to make the difference up the Col de Manse and the bike-handling ability to descend on the run into Gap. Jan Bakelants, Tim Wellens, Jakob Fuglsang, Adam Hansen, Greg Van Avermaet, Daniel Martin, Andrew Talansky, Lieuwe Westra, Michael Valgren, Bob Jungels, Gorka Izaguirre, Giampaolo Caruso, Tiago Machado, Pieter Weening, Michal Kwiatkowski, Zdenek Stybar, Thomas Voeckler, Cyril Gautier, Wilco Kelderman, Steven Kruiswijk, Paul Martens, Kristijan Durasek, Nathan Haas, Daniel Navarro, Jerome Coppel, Jarlinson Pantano, Emanuel Buchmann, Steve Cummings and Louis Meintjes.
The Verdict
I'm going with four riders here, which will give me a better chance with the likely breakaway success.
Gorka Izaguirre already has a 4th from a breakaway this Tour, finishing 4th behind three top-tier climbers up the Plateau de Beille, so clearly he is sitting on some good form, and he'll be a lot more suited to this stage.
Emanuel Buchmann comes with a similar formline, finishing behind Martin and Majka on a mountain stage. He is very young, and has only recently come to prominence with a win in the German nationals, but he looks the goods, and I look forward to following him in the future.
Louis Meintjes is another young rider, but he has already shown himself to be a top rider, with a string of impressive performances in the last few seasons. He finished just behind Izaguirre on Plateau de Beille, but he did all the work up the climb whilst the Spaniard sat on. He has a host of impressive performances to his name, but he hasn't cracked it for a big win yet, but surely that win can't be far away.
Giampaolo Caruso started off the Tour in pretty awful form, but he has been more active in recent stages. At his best, he is a top classics racer and very good climber, and if he can bring that form, he will find this stage to his liking,
I'm going with four riders here, which will give me a better chance with the likely breakaway success.
Gorka Izaguirre already has a 4th from a breakaway this Tour, finishing 4th behind three top-tier climbers up the Plateau de Beille, so clearly he is sitting on some good form, and he'll be a lot more suited to this stage.
Emanuel Buchmann comes with a similar formline, finishing behind Martin and Majka on a mountain stage. He is very young, and has only recently come to prominence with a win in the German nationals, but he looks the goods, and I look forward to following him in the future.
Louis Meintjes is another young rider, but he has already shown himself to be a top rider, with a string of impressive performances in the last few seasons. He finished just behind Izaguirre on Plateau de Beille, but he did all the work up the climb whilst the Spaniard sat on. He has a host of impressive performances to his name, but he hasn't cracked it for a big win yet, but surely that win can't be far away.
Giampaolo Caruso started off the Tour in pretty awful form, but he has been more active in recent stages. At his best, he is a top classics racer and very good climber, and if he can bring that form, he will find this stage to his liking,