After stages and stages of yucky climbing at the finish the sprinters get their chance here on a stage that, whilst difficult to control, should see a bunch finish in Valence.
The Course
Whilst the finish is for the sprinters, they will have a hard time of it during the stage. The course starts hard, with an immediate climb up the Cote de Badaroux (4.6 km, 5.1%), which is actually harder than that, as the climb proper doesn't start until after the early slopes which are also pretty hard. The stage is then fairly easy until the Col de l'Escrinet (7.9 km, 5.9%) which summits with 56.5 kilometres to go. The rest of the course is straightforward and the finish, whilst quite technical, is pan flat.
It's going to be a scorcher in Valence, 35 Degrees, little wind and no chance of rain. Long day in the saddle for the peleton.
Whilst the finish is for the sprinters, they will have a hard time of it during the stage. The course starts hard, with an immediate climb up the Cote de Badaroux (4.6 km, 5.1%), which is actually harder than that, as the climb proper doesn't start until after the early slopes which are also pretty hard. The stage is then fairly easy until the Col de l'Escrinet (7.9 km, 5.9%) which summits with 56.5 kilometres to go. The rest of the course is straightforward and the finish, whilst quite technical, is pan flat.
It's going to be a scorcher in Valence, 35 Degrees, little wind and no chance of rain. Long day in the saddle for the peleton.
The Tactics
The teams of the sprinters are going to have to judge their effort carefully today. The break will go on the initial climb, and whilst it will be important to make sure that the group that goes isn't too big, if they set too high a pace at the start of the stage, then it will tire the team out and the sprinters that they are trying to protect. After the initial climb it will be time for the teams of the chasers to reassess where they are at in relation to the breakaway and who takes responsibility for the chase. Etixx-Quickstep, Lotto-Soudal, Katusha and Giant-Alpecin should share the duties on the front for most of the stage. It will be interesting to see if any of the sprinters teams decide to push the pace on the climbs, in a bid to drop or at least fatigue the less climby sort of sprinters. Giant-Alpecin and MTN-Qhubeka could go for this sort of tactic, as their sprinters are superior climbers, and won't be nearly as badly effected as the others. The last climb is a long way from the finish however, and there will be a general regrouping even if riders are dropped there.
In the finale there is are a few technical areas, with a series of tough corners with 3.5 km remaining, then a roundabout and right hand bend with 250 m to go. Hopefully the race organisers get some traffic furniture removed from there, or else it will be a recipe for disaster. That corner/roundabout will be crucial, and the rider who goes into there first will have a big advantage in going for the win. I think the leadout trains are roughly equal, Etixx-Quickstep were on the front for the first sprint, Giant-Alpecin the second and Katusha the third, interestingly all failed to deliver their sprinter to the win.
The teams of the sprinters are going to have to judge their effort carefully today. The break will go on the initial climb, and whilst it will be important to make sure that the group that goes isn't too big, if they set too high a pace at the start of the stage, then it will tire the team out and the sprinters that they are trying to protect. After the initial climb it will be time for the teams of the chasers to reassess where they are at in relation to the breakaway and who takes responsibility for the chase. Etixx-Quickstep, Lotto-Soudal, Katusha and Giant-Alpecin should share the duties on the front for most of the stage. It will be interesting to see if any of the sprinters teams decide to push the pace on the climbs, in a bid to drop or at least fatigue the less climby sort of sprinters. Giant-Alpecin and MTN-Qhubeka could go for this sort of tactic, as their sprinters are superior climbers, and won't be nearly as badly effected as the others. The last climb is a long way from the finish however, and there will be a general regrouping even if riders are dropped there.
In the finale there is are a few technical areas, with a series of tough corners with 3.5 km remaining, then a roundabout and right hand bend with 250 m to go. Hopefully the race organisers get some traffic furniture removed from there, or else it will be a recipe for disaster. That corner/roundabout will be crucial, and the rider who goes into there first will have a big advantage in going for the win. I think the leadout trains are roughly equal, Etixx-Quickstep were on the front for the first sprint, Giant-Alpecin the second and Katusha the third, interestingly all failed to deliver their sprinter to the win.
Local Trivia
The finishing city of Valence is home to a large Armenian population who migrated there after the genocide of 1915. Valence offered a employment for many Armenian migrants, and there is still a large Armenian population to this day, roughly 15% of the residents have Armenian ancestry. The city has an Armenian heritage centre, and of course plenty of Armenian restaraunts.
The finishing city of Valence is home to a large Armenian population who migrated there after the genocide of 1915. Valence offered a employment for many Armenian migrants, and there is still a large Armenian population to this day, roughly 15% of the residents have Armenian ancestry. The city has an Armenian heritage centre, and of course plenty of Armenian restaraunts.
The Contenders
Andre Greipel has been the king of the sprinters so far, winning two out of the three proper sprint finishes. On the third he was disadvantaged by poor positioning and an uphill kick to the finish, but still managed 2nd. Clearly he is on some top form at the moment, but he won't find this stage to perfectly suit him. The amount of climbing will sap the legs of the big German (and his leadout riders), and the finale is pretty technical as well, which will make things hard for him. He isn't bad in the hot conditions, notably he has dominated at the Tour Down Under in the past.
Mark Cavendish came back after a storm of criticism to take a win, and he'll be looking to go for another here. He climbs pretty well, and handles all conditions. His leadout are also decent climbers and I think he'll probably be advantaged in the finale. If he can be delivered to the front by his team, he has the speed to finish it off, he has shown that he hasn't lost any speed with his recent win.
Alexander Kristoff will be kicking himself after the last sprint, he had the best leadout, and was positioned nicely heading into the sprint, but he launched too late, was cut off and failed to challenge the top 3 on the stage. He will be happy to have the best leadout there however, and I also think that he's one of the fastest guys there. He loves an attritional race, and the tougher the conditions are, the more advantaged Kristoff will be. That said, his leadout aren't particularly good climbers and he might be missing a few of his key men in the final.
Peter Sagan keeps on taking placings, and whilst many (including his team owner Oleg Tinkoff) are getting increasingly frustrated with his lack of wins, I think he is doing a superb job. He has to contest more stage finishes than anyone else, as well as the intermediate sprints, and he is always the marked man because of his outstanding range of abilities. He is sprinting at a higher level than ever before, and is doing it all with next to no support from his team. He won't be troubled by the climbing today, but probably won't be too happy with the heat, as he doesn't excel in the particularly tough conditions. He will be hard pressed to win this stage, as positioning will be critical going into that final corner, and whilst Sagan does a superb job for himself, you need a lead-out to really be in the box seat here.
John Degenkolb is an outsider for the flat sprints, as he doesn't quite have the raw power of the top sprinters on the flat. As stated above though, positioning is going to be important here, which is a facet of the sprinting that Degenkolb is pretty proficient in. Whilst he is a pretty good climber his leadout aren't and that may hamstring his chances a bit here, and I'm sure that he won't be able to make up much ground from behind.
Edvald Boasson Hagen has been very good in the sprints this Tour when he's been given the chance, but unfortunately for him Tyler Farrar was given the leadership in the last sprint stage. Hopefully Eddy Boss will be given his chance here, with all the additional climbing on the stage. He has a decent leadout at his disposal, the Van Rensburg brothers are both good climbers to go with their sprinting legs, and they could spring a surprise on the bigger teams if they get it right here. Boasson Hagen clearly doesn't have the out and out speed of the others here, but at the end of a hard stage with a lot of climbing, things are different, and the Norwegian could take a big win here.
Arnaud Demare struck out hard in Rodez to try and take the win, but faded very quickly, and it was clear that he underestimated the climb. He will be more at home on the flat here, but he hasn't shown much to suggest that he can match these riders in a sprint, and his team isn't strong enough to deliver him to a good enough position to make up for that.
Bryan Coquard hasn't really hit his straps yet in the Tour, he took 3rd on the climby finish to Le Havre but he hasn't threatened on the flat stages, his best finish being 8th. He can climb well, and is pretty fast in a sprint, but he gives away speed to a lot of riders here, and has a pretty poor leadout. In addition I'm pretty sure that he'll struggle a bit in the heat, his best results have come in the relative cold of the European spring and he has yet to prove himself in the hot weather.
Sam Bennet looks like he will one day develop into a top sprinter, but he has been a little lost to date at the Tour. He has only contested one sprint, finishing 10th in Fougeres, and he has been climbing very poorly so far. He might not even be at the finish on that form, and certainly won't have the sprinting legs required to win.
Davide Cimolai is an interesting rider, he probably lacks a bit of power, but he has shown that he can handle the positioning aspect of sprinting very well. He will be able to handle the climbing of the stage easily enough, but the jury is still out on his ability to handle the heat after he failed to contest a finish which would have suited him fairly well in Rodez.
Andre Greipel has been the king of the sprinters so far, winning two out of the three proper sprint finishes. On the third he was disadvantaged by poor positioning and an uphill kick to the finish, but still managed 2nd. Clearly he is on some top form at the moment, but he won't find this stage to perfectly suit him. The amount of climbing will sap the legs of the big German (and his leadout riders), and the finale is pretty technical as well, which will make things hard for him. He isn't bad in the hot conditions, notably he has dominated at the Tour Down Under in the past.
Mark Cavendish came back after a storm of criticism to take a win, and he'll be looking to go for another here. He climbs pretty well, and handles all conditions. His leadout are also decent climbers and I think he'll probably be advantaged in the finale. If he can be delivered to the front by his team, he has the speed to finish it off, he has shown that he hasn't lost any speed with his recent win.
Alexander Kristoff will be kicking himself after the last sprint, he had the best leadout, and was positioned nicely heading into the sprint, but he launched too late, was cut off and failed to challenge the top 3 on the stage. He will be happy to have the best leadout there however, and I also think that he's one of the fastest guys there. He loves an attritional race, and the tougher the conditions are, the more advantaged Kristoff will be. That said, his leadout aren't particularly good climbers and he might be missing a few of his key men in the final.
Peter Sagan keeps on taking placings, and whilst many (including his team owner Oleg Tinkoff) are getting increasingly frustrated with his lack of wins, I think he is doing a superb job. He has to contest more stage finishes than anyone else, as well as the intermediate sprints, and he is always the marked man because of his outstanding range of abilities. He is sprinting at a higher level than ever before, and is doing it all with next to no support from his team. He won't be troubled by the climbing today, but probably won't be too happy with the heat, as he doesn't excel in the particularly tough conditions. He will be hard pressed to win this stage, as positioning will be critical going into that final corner, and whilst Sagan does a superb job for himself, you need a lead-out to really be in the box seat here.
John Degenkolb is an outsider for the flat sprints, as he doesn't quite have the raw power of the top sprinters on the flat. As stated above though, positioning is going to be important here, which is a facet of the sprinting that Degenkolb is pretty proficient in. Whilst he is a pretty good climber his leadout aren't and that may hamstring his chances a bit here, and I'm sure that he won't be able to make up much ground from behind.
Edvald Boasson Hagen has been very good in the sprints this Tour when he's been given the chance, but unfortunately for him Tyler Farrar was given the leadership in the last sprint stage. Hopefully Eddy Boss will be given his chance here, with all the additional climbing on the stage. He has a decent leadout at his disposal, the Van Rensburg brothers are both good climbers to go with their sprinting legs, and they could spring a surprise on the bigger teams if they get it right here. Boasson Hagen clearly doesn't have the out and out speed of the others here, but at the end of a hard stage with a lot of climbing, things are different, and the Norwegian could take a big win here.
Arnaud Demare struck out hard in Rodez to try and take the win, but faded very quickly, and it was clear that he underestimated the climb. He will be more at home on the flat here, but he hasn't shown much to suggest that he can match these riders in a sprint, and his team isn't strong enough to deliver him to a good enough position to make up for that.
Bryan Coquard hasn't really hit his straps yet in the Tour, he took 3rd on the climby finish to Le Havre but he hasn't threatened on the flat stages, his best finish being 8th. He can climb well, and is pretty fast in a sprint, but he gives away speed to a lot of riders here, and has a pretty poor leadout. In addition I'm pretty sure that he'll struggle a bit in the heat, his best results have come in the relative cold of the European spring and he has yet to prove himself in the hot weather.
Sam Bennet looks like he will one day develop into a top sprinter, but he has been a little lost to date at the Tour. He has only contested one sprint, finishing 10th in Fougeres, and he has been climbing very poorly so far. He might not even be at the finish on that form, and certainly won't have the sprinting legs required to win.
Davide Cimolai is an interesting rider, he probably lacks a bit of power, but he has shown that he can handle the positioning aspect of sprinting very well. He will be able to handle the climbing of the stage easily enough, but the jury is still out on his ability to handle the heat after he failed to contest a finish which would have suited him fairly well in Rodez.
The Verdict
Looks like it will be a battle of the leadouts, and I think Etixx-Quickstep and Mark Cavendish will crack it for another win here.
Looks like it will be a battle of the leadouts, and I think Etixx-Quickstep and Mark Cavendish will crack it for another win here.