An intriguing finish here, nicely balanced between the classics riders and the climbers. There will be some big time gaps for the unwary here, as the final climb is very tough.
The Course
Curious stage here, with a hilly beginning followed by a flat middle section before the climbs are back in the last 40 kilometres of the stage. The Cote de Sauveterre (9 km, 6%) leads the peleton to a plateau, before a sharp descent to rolling terrain and then it is up the final two climbs which come in short succession. The Cote de Chabrits (1.9 km, 5.9%) is followed by an immediate descent into the Cote de la Croix Neuve (3 km, 10.1%) which tops out with just over a kilometre remaining.
The turbulent weather will continue, with hot and humid weather expected, and with it a significant chance of rain. The wind will be a light one from the south, which will be a crosswind for most of the day, but will become a tailwind for the last 40 kms, and a headwind for the final flat section into the finish line.
Curious stage here, with a hilly beginning followed by a flat middle section before the climbs are back in the last 40 kilometres of the stage. The Cote de Sauveterre (9 km, 6%) leads the peleton to a plateau, before a sharp descent to rolling terrain and then it is up the final two climbs which come in short succession. The Cote de Chabrits (1.9 km, 5.9%) is followed by an immediate descent into the Cote de la Croix Neuve (3 km, 10.1%) which tops out with just over a kilometre remaining.
The turbulent weather will continue, with hot and humid weather expected, and with it a significant chance of rain. The wind will be a light one from the south, which will be a crosswind for most of the day, but will become a tailwind for the last 40 kms, and a headwind for the final flat section into the finish line.
The Tactics
It will be interesting to see who takes up the responsibility for chasing the breakaway here, as it will need to be a concerted chase. The terrain is pretty good for a breakaway attempt, and the final 40 km, where most of the reeling in happens, has a helpful tailwind for the escapees. Katusha will probably be the main team expected to do the bulk of the work here, as Rodriguez looks in great form and will be very well suited to this finish. But AG2R (Vuillermoz), Cannodale-Garmin (Martin) and Orica-Greenedge (Yates) may also look to help out. I wouldn't expect the GC teams to play much of a role, they will want to save their energy for the mountains where they can go for potentially bigger time gaps. The one exception may be Movistar, who could see this as a good opportunity for Valverde to put pressure on Froome, but they have fairly consistently showed that they are working towards Quintana's GC prospects and Valverde has to fend for himself largely.
So the breakaway isn't without a shot, but I would lean towards them not surviving into the finish.
The final two climbs should be where most of the action on this stage, and really the final climb is hard enough that most will wait for that before they make their move. It will be interesting to see whether this climb favours the punchier classics riders or the GC candidates. It is properly steep but at 3 km, is it long enough for the pure climbers, or does the explosive power of the puncheurs count more?
The sprint point comes early in the stage and it will be hotly contested by Greipel, Cavendish and Degenkolb, as they will have no chance on this finale. Sagan might harbour some ambitions however, and in any case he'll be required to help Contador out, so he should be behind the other sprinters in the intermediate sprint.
It will be interesting to see who takes up the responsibility for chasing the breakaway here, as it will need to be a concerted chase. The terrain is pretty good for a breakaway attempt, and the final 40 km, where most of the reeling in happens, has a helpful tailwind for the escapees. Katusha will probably be the main team expected to do the bulk of the work here, as Rodriguez looks in great form and will be very well suited to this finish. But AG2R (Vuillermoz), Cannodale-Garmin (Martin) and Orica-Greenedge (Yates) may also look to help out. I wouldn't expect the GC teams to play much of a role, they will want to save their energy for the mountains where they can go for potentially bigger time gaps. The one exception may be Movistar, who could see this as a good opportunity for Valverde to put pressure on Froome, but they have fairly consistently showed that they are working towards Quintana's GC prospects and Valverde has to fend for himself largely.
So the breakaway isn't without a shot, but I would lean towards them not surviving into the finish.
The final two climbs should be where most of the action on this stage, and really the final climb is hard enough that most will wait for that before they make their move. It will be interesting to see whether this climb favours the punchier classics riders or the GC candidates. It is properly steep but at 3 km, is it long enough for the pure climbers, or does the explosive power of the puncheurs count more?
The sprint point comes early in the stage and it will be hotly contested by Greipel, Cavendish and Degenkolb, as they will have no chance on this finale. Sagan might harbour some ambitions however, and in any case he'll be required to help Contador out, so he should be behind the other sprinters in the intermediate sprint.
Local Trivia
Not local, but the name of the finishing town, Mende is shared by the names of a cultural group in Sierra Leone that were at the heart of one of the most important U.S. Supreme Court decisions ever. Mende people taken by slavers from Sierra Leone rebelled and took over the ship, but lacking sailing skills could only rely on the Spanish to sail them back to Africa. The Spanish instead docked in the USA, afterwards claiming that the slaves were property and should be returned to them. The final decision revolved around the interpretation of treaties and international law, but the end result was that the Mende people returned to their homeland with reparations.
There was also a very good movie made about the events, one that I would recommend, containing some of my favourites actors like Djimon Hounsou, Anthony Hopkins, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Matthew McConaughey, Nigel Hawthorne (of Yes, Minister fame), Pete Postlethwaite and Morgan Freeman.
Not local, but the name of the finishing town, Mende is shared by the names of a cultural group in Sierra Leone that were at the heart of one of the most important U.S. Supreme Court decisions ever. Mende people taken by slavers from Sierra Leone rebelled and took over the ship, but lacking sailing skills could only rely on the Spanish to sail them back to Africa. The Spanish instead docked in the USA, afterwards claiming that the slaves were property and should be returned to them. The final decision revolved around the interpretation of treaties and international law, but the end result was that the Mende people returned to their homeland with reparations.
There was also a very good movie made about the events, one that I would recommend, containing some of my favourites actors like Djimon Hounsou, Anthony Hopkins, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Matthew McConaughey, Nigel Hawthorne (of Yes, Minister fame), Pete Postlethwaite and Morgan Freeman.
The Contenders
Joaquim Rodriguez should go into this stage as the big favourite after being victorious on Mur de Huy, and then later on the Plateau de Beille. He is just the right mix between punchy classics specialist and pure climber for this stage finish. He has had enough of riding for GC, even losing significant time on Stage 13, where he wouldn't have if he was still interested in his GC spot (17th). He has stated that he's switched his focus to stage wins and the mountains jersey. He is probably the best in the peleton on the steep slopes over this shorter climb, and he'll be very tough to beat.
Alejandro Valverde is another who has that mix of classics explosiveness and climbing ability which should stand him in good stead here. He has been gradually coming into form during the race, and looked one of the strongest on the Plateau de Beille. He has similar characteristics to Purito, but a better sprint, so he doesn't have to attack so much as follow wheels and then beat them in a sprint. On the other hand, he may still have duties in helping Quintana, as he had on the Mur de Huy and Mur de Bretagne.
Chris Froome was impressive on the Mur de Huy stage, showcasing some pretty impressive explosive ability that he didn't really have before, and he really wasn't that far off taking the win. He will be better suited to the longer climb here, and he could turn the tables here.
Alexis Vuillermoz won impressively on the Mur de Bretagne, making an initial attack, getting caught, then going again on the lesser slopes. He has shown during this season that he excels on these sorts of steep slopes, but I would still put him behind most of the other riders mentioned here. He won't be closely watched, even after his win, and he could make use of that again like he did on the Mur de Bretagne.
Daniel Martin has been knocking at the door, but can't manage to get through for a stage win just yet, finshing 2nd twice and 4th. This is mostly due to going a bit late in his attacks, he always finishes fast, but he's been giving up too much of a gap to those in front of him. On the plus side, that means that he has very good legs, and if he can get the tactics right, that could mean that he takes the win here. At his best, he is one of the top classics-men and a very good climber to boot, so he will be well suited here.
Tony Gallopin has been riding beyond all expectations so far, and will be looking to continue that form here. He would be a contender for this stage on that form, but I feel that it hamstrings him a bit as well, as he has to go full gas every day to protect his position, whilst the likes of Rodriguez and Martin can pick and choose their stages. Also, as the race wears on, recovery becomes more and more important, and Gallopin hasn't yet demonstrated that he has the ability of Froome or Contador to replicate his condition day after day, at least not yet.
Quintana makes this list mainly because he looked very dangerous on the Plateau de Beille, and was only really stopped from taking time on Froome by a combination of Team Sky and the headwind. I would normally say that he doesn't really have the punch to win this stage, but the really steep gradients are where he thrives, and the slightly longer distance of the climb will be very much to his liking. He has absolutely no sprint however, so he would have to win solo.
Tim Wellens is my pick to win from a breakaway if it comes to that. He is a very good rider, and will be disappointed with his Tour to date, as he had hoped to be a lot more active in attacks and the finales of stages. This stage might be a nice opportunity for him to get into a breakaway, but on the other hand, he may be required to work for Gallopin.
Joaquim Rodriguez should go into this stage as the big favourite after being victorious on Mur de Huy, and then later on the Plateau de Beille. He is just the right mix between punchy classics specialist and pure climber for this stage finish. He has had enough of riding for GC, even losing significant time on Stage 13, where he wouldn't have if he was still interested in his GC spot (17th). He has stated that he's switched his focus to stage wins and the mountains jersey. He is probably the best in the peleton on the steep slopes over this shorter climb, and he'll be very tough to beat.
Alejandro Valverde is another who has that mix of classics explosiveness and climbing ability which should stand him in good stead here. He has been gradually coming into form during the race, and looked one of the strongest on the Plateau de Beille. He has similar characteristics to Purito, but a better sprint, so he doesn't have to attack so much as follow wheels and then beat them in a sprint. On the other hand, he may still have duties in helping Quintana, as he had on the Mur de Huy and Mur de Bretagne.
Chris Froome was impressive on the Mur de Huy stage, showcasing some pretty impressive explosive ability that he didn't really have before, and he really wasn't that far off taking the win. He will be better suited to the longer climb here, and he could turn the tables here.
Alexis Vuillermoz won impressively on the Mur de Bretagne, making an initial attack, getting caught, then going again on the lesser slopes. He has shown during this season that he excels on these sorts of steep slopes, but I would still put him behind most of the other riders mentioned here. He won't be closely watched, even after his win, and he could make use of that again like he did on the Mur de Bretagne.
Daniel Martin has been knocking at the door, but can't manage to get through for a stage win just yet, finshing 2nd twice and 4th. This is mostly due to going a bit late in his attacks, he always finishes fast, but he's been giving up too much of a gap to those in front of him. On the plus side, that means that he has very good legs, and if he can get the tactics right, that could mean that he takes the win here. At his best, he is one of the top classics-men and a very good climber to boot, so he will be well suited here.
Tony Gallopin has been riding beyond all expectations so far, and will be looking to continue that form here. He would be a contender for this stage on that form, but I feel that it hamstrings him a bit as well, as he has to go full gas every day to protect his position, whilst the likes of Rodriguez and Martin can pick and choose their stages. Also, as the race wears on, recovery becomes more and more important, and Gallopin hasn't yet demonstrated that he has the ability of Froome or Contador to replicate his condition day after day, at least not yet.
Quintana makes this list mainly because he looked very dangerous on the Plateau de Beille, and was only really stopped from taking time on Froome by a combination of Team Sky and the headwind. I would normally say that he doesn't really have the punch to win this stage, but the really steep gradients are where he thrives, and the slightly longer distance of the climb will be very much to his liking. He has absolutely no sprint however, so he would have to win solo.
Tim Wellens is my pick to win from a breakaway if it comes to that. He is a very good rider, and will be disappointed with his Tour to date, as he had hoped to be a lot more active in attacks and the finales of stages. This stage might be a nice opportunity for him to get into a breakaway, but on the other hand, he may be required to work for Gallopin.
The Verdict
Joaquim Rodriguez for me here. He will be closely watched, but only by the stage hunters, and I think he will be able to distance them on the tough slopes. If the GC fight really ramps up, then that will makes things harder for Purito, but he still has the skills to win in that scenario as well.
Joaquim Rodriguez for me here. He will be closely watched, but only by the stage hunters, and I think he will be able to distance them on the tough slopes. If the GC fight really ramps up, then that will makes things harder for Purito, but he still has the skills to win in that scenario as well.