The puncheurs will get their chance to shine today, on a lumpy day into Rodez which ends with a steep pinch up to the line.
The Course
A lumpy affair for the peleton today, with the second half of the stage filled with quite a few smaller climbs. It ends with a steep 570 metre climb at 9.7%, which will hopefully be the stage for a big showdown between the climby sprinters and the puncheurs.
Mild with a decent chance of rain today. Wind is going to be a moderate crosswind at stages today, but the peleton will be relatively sheltered, so I doubt it will have much effect.
A lumpy affair for the peleton today, with the second half of the stage filled with quite a few smaller climbs. It ends with a steep 570 metre climb at 9.7%, which will hopefully be the stage for a big showdown between the climby sprinters and the puncheurs.
Mild with a decent chance of rain today. Wind is going to be a moderate crosswind at stages today, but the peleton will be relatively sheltered, so I doubt it will have much effect.
The Tactics
It could be a day for the break, the attackers or the puncheurs, but I think it will come down to that final 570 metres. There are a lot of riders who will fancy their chances at this finish, but the fact that Sagan will be the overwhelming favourite may hamstring the chase a bit, especially considering that Tinkoff-Saxo won't do any chasing. This happened on Stage 6 into Le Havre, which had a similar finish, but the breakaway wasn't at all ambitious, and instead of a successful escape, it was the slowest stage of the Tour, more of a mini rest day than anything else. If that happens today, hopefully the breakaway decides to punish the peleton rather than just soft-pedalling to the finish.
The lumpy second half of the race may provide a springboard for late attacks, but the climbs aren't too tough, and the bulk of the climbing ends some way before the finish, so any level of chasing by the breakaway should make sure the attackers are kept in check. If that happens it will be all down to the sprint, and the nasty gradient and short distance really narrows it down to a special type of rider, who can maintain a sprinting type level of exertion all the way up a hill. Drafting and tactics actually play a big part on this type of rapid climbing, and regularly it is a rider that can either surprise the others, or follow wheels intelligently that takes the victory on these finishes.
It could be a day for the break, the attackers or the puncheurs, but I think it will come down to that final 570 metres. There are a lot of riders who will fancy their chances at this finish, but the fact that Sagan will be the overwhelming favourite may hamstring the chase a bit, especially considering that Tinkoff-Saxo won't do any chasing. This happened on Stage 6 into Le Havre, which had a similar finish, but the breakaway wasn't at all ambitious, and instead of a successful escape, it was the slowest stage of the Tour, more of a mini rest day than anything else. If that happens today, hopefully the breakaway decides to punish the peleton rather than just soft-pedalling to the finish.
The lumpy second half of the race may provide a springboard for late attacks, but the climbs aren't too tough, and the bulk of the climbing ends some way before the finish, so any level of chasing by the breakaway should make sure the attackers are kept in check. If that happens it will be all down to the sprint, and the nasty gradient and short distance really narrows it down to a special type of rider, who can maintain a sprinting type level of exertion all the way up a hill. Drafting and tactics actually play a big part on this type of rapid climbing, and regularly it is a rider that can either surprise the others, or follow wheels intelligently that takes the victory on these finishes.
Local Trivia
The finishing town of Rodez has changed rulers a ton of times in its history, founded by the Ruteni, who would later become part of Gaul. It was then converted by the Romans into a fortified town known as Segdodunum, before being conquered by the Visigoths, the Franks and the Moors. It reverted to French rule for most of its history since, but was occupied during the Hundred Years War by the British.
The finishing town of Rodez has changed rulers a ton of times in its history, founded by the Ruteni, who would later become part of Gaul. It was then converted by the Romans into a fortified town known as Segdodunum, before being conquered by the Visigoths, the Franks and the Moors. It reverted to French rule for most of its history since, but was occupied during the Hundred Years War by the British.
The Contenders
Sorry, been away the last two days, managed to get it up in advance yesterday, but today it will have to be abridged.
Peter Sagan should be strong on this finish, but it has been quite a while since he has actually won on this sort of finish and I think he'll find some too strong for him here.
Alejandro Valverde looks to be coming into some good form, and of course he would normally excel on a finish like this. This one might be a touch too explosive, even for him, and I also think that he will have to recover from Stage 12, where he went very deep, whilst the other contenders for this stage rested up.
Zdenek Stybar won on the finish to Le Havre, leaving the peleton eating his dust. He mixed it up on a similar finish in Tirreno with Sagan and Van Avermaet earlier this season, and he shouldn't be far off here.
Greg Van Avermaet will be very hard to beat today, he is very explosive and can suffer up there with the best of them. Think he'll be the one to beat.
John Degenkolb might find it too steep today, but he proved in the Tour of Dubai that he can win on very steep gradients, and he could do so again today. I just think it's a touch too long and hard for him on this occasion.
Michael Matthews has been a bit more encouraged with how his body feels in recent stages and he will have a go here. At his best, he would be the favourite for this stage, but I can't be convinced that he'll show up in top form with the injuries he has had.
Sorry, been away the last two days, managed to get it up in advance yesterday, but today it will have to be abridged.
Peter Sagan should be strong on this finish, but it has been quite a while since he has actually won on this sort of finish and I think he'll find some too strong for him here.
Alejandro Valverde looks to be coming into some good form, and of course he would normally excel on a finish like this. This one might be a touch too explosive, even for him, and I also think that he will have to recover from Stage 12, where he went very deep, whilst the other contenders for this stage rested up.
Zdenek Stybar won on the finish to Le Havre, leaving the peleton eating his dust. He mixed it up on a similar finish in Tirreno with Sagan and Van Avermaet earlier this season, and he shouldn't be far off here.
Greg Van Avermaet will be very hard to beat today, he is very explosive and can suffer up there with the best of them. Think he'll be the one to beat.
John Degenkolb might find it too steep today, but he proved in the Tour of Dubai that he can win on very steep gradients, and he could do so again today. I just think it's a touch too long and hard for him on this occasion.
Michael Matthews has been a bit more encouraged with how his body feels in recent stages and he will have a go here. At his best, he would be the favourite for this stage, but I can't be convinced that he'll show up in top form with the injuries he has had.
The Verdict
Lots of good candidates for the win here, but I'll go with Greg Van Avermaet in this one.
Lots of good candidates for the win here, but I'll go with Greg Van Avermaet in this one.