The Plateau de Beille is the scene for the drama today, and it will be a very tough test for those that have just been clinging onto to the tails of others, for as Bernard Hinault says "the third day in the mountains finds you out".
The Course
Probably the hardest day in the mountains for this three stage block, with 4 major climbs sprinkled throughout the stage. The stage might be a bit easier today however, as each climb has a pretty easy descent followed by some valley riding, which will allow a bit of recovery for the climbers. The first climb is the Col de Portet d'Aspet (4.3 km, 9.7%) and is followed by the Col de la Core (14.1 km, 5.7%). The Port de Lers (12.9 km, 6%), which summits with 51 km to go, is the final appetiser for the final climb, the Plateau de Beille (15.8 km, 7.9%), and the stage finishes at the summit.
Probably the hardest day in the mountains for this three stage block, with 4 major climbs sprinkled throughout the stage. The stage might be a bit easier today however, as each climb has a pretty easy descent followed by some valley riding, which will allow a bit of recovery for the climbers. The first climb is the Col de Portet d'Aspet (4.3 km, 9.7%) and is followed by the Col de la Core (14.1 km, 5.7%). The Port de Lers (12.9 km, 6%), which summits with 51 km to go, is the final appetiser for the final climb, the Plateau de Beille (15.8 km, 7.9%), and the stage finishes at the summit.
The Tactics
The pressure is all on the other teams to make up time on Froome, but it will be hard to put much pressure on today, and it won't be a day that suits a long range move, as the climbs are quite spread out, and there will be plenty of flat terrain to bring any dangerous moves back to the peleton. Sky will have to do most of the work by themselves, which will allow the breakaway a chance to go to the line. However, the summit finish on the very hard Plateau de Beille will make it tough to hold even a large gap at the bottom of the final climb, and you would think even a good rider would need 5 minutes advantage at that point to hold on til the finish. I do think that the breakaway does have a decent chance today though, as we saw on Stage 11, Sky don't have any particular interest in chasing the break too intently, and the other teams haven't shown much interest in taking the burden of chasing off them.
As I said, it will be a hard day for the GC riders to plot any special tactics to take time, and I think that most will choose to ride conservatively until the final climb.
It will be an important day for anyone who hopes to win the mountains jersey with points gained out on the intermediate climbs, as there are a number of points available, and if the break stays to the finish, the points are doubled on the finish line.
The sprint jersey was the scene of an interesting with Greipel being tailed off just before the sprint, being brought back by Lotto-Soudal, but too late to contest the sprint properly. Trentin took the points for first, in defence of Cavendish's position, but Sagan was 2nd, and it is these sort of points gained that put him ahead of the other sprinters in the race for green.
The pressure is all on the other teams to make up time on Froome, but it will be hard to put much pressure on today, and it won't be a day that suits a long range move, as the climbs are quite spread out, and there will be plenty of flat terrain to bring any dangerous moves back to the peleton. Sky will have to do most of the work by themselves, which will allow the breakaway a chance to go to the line. However, the summit finish on the very hard Plateau de Beille will make it tough to hold even a large gap at the bottom of the final climb, and you would think even a good rider would need 5 minutes advantage at that point to hold on til the finish. I do think that the breakaway does have a decent chance today though, as we saw on Stage 11, Sky don't have any particular interest in chasing the break too intently, and the other teams haven't shown much interest in taking the burden of chasing off them.
As I said, it will be a hard day for the GC riders to plot any special tactics to take time, and I think that most will choose to ride conservatively until the final climb.
It will be an important day for anyone who hopes to win the mountains jersey with points gained out on the intermediate climbs, as there are a number of points available, and if the break stays to the finish, the points are doubled on the finish line.
The sprint jersey was the scene of an interesting with Greipel being tailed off just before the sprint, being brought back by Lotto-Soudal, but too late to contest the sprint properly. Trentin took the points for first, in defence of Cavendish's position, but Sagan was 2nd, and it is these sort of points gained that put him ahead of the other sprinters in the race for green.
Local Trivia
The peleton will pass relatively close to the Roncevaux Pass today, which has been the site of quite a few decisive historical battles. Charlemagne was repelled by the Basques in 778, considered a foundation event for the Basque culture, which we have talked about in the past. Then in 1813, the Duke of Wellington was victorious here, which was instrumental to the eventual downfall of Napoleon.
The peleton will pass relatively close to the Roncevaux Pass today, which has been the site of quite a few decisive historical battles. Charlemagne was repelled by the Basques in 778, considered a foundation event for the Basque culture, which we have talked about in the past. Then in 1813, the Duke of Wellington was victorious here, which was instrumental to the eventual downfall of Napoleon.
The Contenders
Chris Froome will be the favourite if the race is fought out amongst the favourites. Sky have the strength to keep the race together and drop most of the other contenders before launching Froome near the top of the climb. The climb is hardest at the bottom, and gets easier towards the top, but it still averages 8% with 4-5 km to go, and that will be a good spot for him to launch an attack.
Nairo Quintana will like the look of this climb, long and with nice, consistently high gradients. Quintana wasn't far off following Froome in the early stages of his attack, but gradually fell further and further behind as the gradients became shallower and the climbing became more about power, which Quintana lacks. Here, the climb also becomes more shallow as it goes, but it is still consistently harder than Stage 10, which will give the pint-sized Quintana a better chance.
Alberto Contador looks hard pressed to catch up to Froome on the GC, but he'll still be keen to go as hard as possible, and to try and take some stage wins. I'm not sure that he has the energy, as he looks to be paying for his Giro efforts, and I think he will have to pick a stage, where he can attack from a ways out and catch Froome off-guard to take a win. This stage doesn't really lend itself to those sort of tactics, and I'd be surprised if he can turn it around on Froome here.
Tejay Van Garderen probably tried a bit too hard to catch up with Froome on Stage 10 and paid the price late on, fading to be caught and passed by a number of riders in the finale, finishing 10th on the Stage and dropping down the GC. He rides much better when he rides at his own tempo and takes advantage of tactical stalemates. The tactical stalemates have been at a minimum in this race, with Sky setting a good pace throughout, ensuring that there hasn't been a lull in the pace of the peleton which will allow the American to take advantage. This is the third consecutive day in the mountains however, and if there is any day that Sky will be weak this will be it.
That said, Richie Porte and Geraint Thomas are decent winning candidates for the stage, as both are riding to the top of their ability at the moment. Thomas is right up there on the GC as well, currently sitting pretty in 5th, and Sky seem to be quite keen to defend his position as well. In stage 11 Porte was the rider who did the work on the front of the peleton, where Thomas would normally be when the team is down to 3 men. Porte is also a chance at winning the stage, he was 2nd on Stage 10, and we have seen in the past that Froome has tried to give Porte stage victories, most notably in 2013, whilst in the yellow jersey, he set the pace for Porte up the final climb. That happened a lot later in the race on that occasion however, and I would have thought that Sky would want his grip on yellow to be a little more certain, before they start getting too cute with other objectives.
Joaquim Rodriguez is clearly worse than he made out after Stage 10, and he was dropped early on the Tourmalet and looked right on his limit, backing up some speculation that the Spaniard is sick. I doubt we'll see him bounce back on this stage, he'll probably have his eyes set on some stages in the third week.
For the breakaway, there are a number of riders who can take a win. Ryder Hesjedal, Adam Yates, Rafael Valls, Tim Wellens and Daniel Navarro took a day off in Stage 11, and might be conserving energy for a breakaway move on this stage. Michal Kwiatkowski and Bob Jungels also tried a move today, but weren't allowed any space by the peleton and had to come back to the bunch, and may instead have a go today.
Chris Froome will be the favourite if the race is fought out amongst the favourites. Sky have the strength to keep the race together and drop most of the other contenders before launching Froome near the top of the climb. The climb is hardest at the bottom, and gets easier towards the top, but it still averages 8% with 4-5 km to go, and that will be a good spot for him to launch an attack.
Nairo Quintana will like the look of this climb, long and with nice, consistently high gradients. Quintana wasn't far off following Froome in the early stages of his attack, but gradually fell further and further behind as the gradients became shallower and the climbing became more about power, which Quintana lacks. Here, the climb also becomes more shallow as it goes, but it is still consistently harder than Stage 10, which will give the pint-sized Quintana a better chance.
Alberto Contador looks hard pressed to catch up to Froome on the GC, but he'll still be keen to go as hard as possible, and to try and take some stage wins. I'm not sure that he has the energy, as he looks to be paying for his Giro efforts, and I think he will have to pick a stage, where he can attack from a ways out and catch Froome off-guard to take a win. This stage doesn't really lend itself to those sort of tactics, and I'd be surprised if he can turn it around on Froome here.
Tejay Van Garderen probably tried a bit too hard to catch up with Froome on Stage 10 and paid the price late on, fading to be caught and passed by a number of riders in the finale, finishing 10th on the Stage and dropping down the GC. He rides much better when he rides at his own tempo and takes advantage of tactical stalemates. The tactical stalemates have been at a minimum in this race, with Sky setting a good pace throughout, ensuring that there hasn't been a lull in the pace of the peleton which will allow the American to take advantage. This is the third consecutive day in the mountains however, and if there is any day that Sky will be weak this will be it.
That said, Richie Porte and Geraint Thomas are decent winning candidates for the stage, as both are riding to the top of their ability at the moment. Thomas is right up there on the GC as well, currently sitting pretty in 5th, and Sky seem to be quite keen to defend his position as well. In stage 11 Porte was the rider who did the work on the front of the peleton, where Thomas would normally be when the team is down to 3 men. Porte is also a chance at winning the stage, he was 2nd on Stage 10, and we have seen in the past that Froome has tried to give Porte stage victories, most notably in 2013, whilst in the yellow jersey, he set the pace for Porte up the final climb. That happened a lot later in the race on that occasion however, and I would have thought that Sky would want his grip on yellow to be a little more certain, before they start getting too cute with other objectives.
Joaquim Rodriguez is clearly worse than he made out after Stage 10, and he was dropped early on the Tourmalet and looked right on his limit, backing up some speculation that the Spaniard is sick. I doubt we'll see him bounce back on this stage, he'll probably have his eyes set on some stages in the third week.
For the breakaway, there are a number of riders who can take a win. Ryder Hesjedal, Adam Yates, Rafael Valls, Tim Wellens and Daniel Navarro took a day off in Stage 11, and might be conserving energy for a breakaway move on this stage. Michal Kwiatkowski and Bob Jungels also tried a move today, but weren't allowed any space by the peleton and had to come back to the bunch, and may instead have a go today.
The Verdict
I'm guessing that a breakaway will stay away today, but it will need to be an elite climber in there to hold off the peleton on the final massive climb. This points me towards Adam Yates, who has been climbing with the best in this Tour, but he has lost a lot of time and will be allowed to go in the break. His brother Simon would get a mention here as well, but he picked up a bug on the rest day, and has been riding below his normal level.
I'm guessing that a breakaway will stay away today, but it will need to be an elite climber in there to hold off the peleton on the final massive climb. This points me towards Adam Yates, who has been climbing with the best in this Tour, but he has lost a lot of time and will be allowed to go in the break. His brother Simon would get a mention here as well, but he picked up a bug on the rest day, and has been riding below his normal level.