Off to the high mountains again and the famous Col du Tourmalet is on the menu today. It will probably be the key climb of the stage and it will be a good launching pad for ambitious moves by the contenders who are looking to make up for lost time.
The Course
The start of the stage is relatively benign, but the belies the overall difficulty of the stage, which will be one of the most decisive of the Tour if it is raced aggressively, The Col d'Aspin (12 km, 6%) is the first big challenge of the day, and its role will be to sap the legs of the riders. The descent from there is straight into the Col du Tourmalet (17.1 km, 7.3%) which starts out comparatively easy, with the first 6 kilometres averaging 5.5%, but the remainder of the climb averages an unrelenting 8.3%. A long descent from the top of the Tourmalet leads into the final ascent of the stage, the Cote de Cauterets (6.4 km, 5%) and is a relatively easy climb for the riders to finish on.
The start of the stage is relatively benign, but the belies the overall difficulty of the stage, which will be one of the most decisive of the Tour if it is raced aggressively, The Col d'Aspin (12 km, 6%) is the first big challenge of the day, and its role will be to sap the legs of the riders. The descent from there is straight into the Col du Tourmalet (17.1 km, 7.3%) which starts out comparatively easy, with the first 6 kilometres averaging 5.5%, but the remainder of the climb averages an unrelenting 8.3%. A long descent from the top of the Tourmalet leads into the final ascent of the stage, the Cote de Cauterets (6.4 km, 5%) and is a relatively easy climb for the riders to finish on.
The Tactics
The break will go early and will most likely be given a fair amount of time, with the volume of climbing left to go in the stage. I find it hard to believe that the win will go to the break, with the mostly flat terrain at the start making it hard to form a big breakaway with lots of good climbers, and the chasing easier for the peleton. Once the race hits the Tourmalet, the pace will be on and the breakaway should be swept up on the climb, perhaps on the descent. On the other hand, the stage finish doesn't really suit anyone that well, so it's possible that the break won't be actively pursued.
In terms of the points jerseys there will be a fairly early sprint, which will be the main target for the sprinters on the stage, and we may see some even join the breakaway, as the terrain isn't hard up to that point. This will be a key stage for the mountains jersey for those that aren't able to keep up with the main GC contenders as they will have to maximise their points elsewhere. Here, a Category 1 climb and a HC climb have big points on offer, not enough to beat Chris Froome, but plenty to be building a strong tally in the competition.
For the GC riders, all riders not named Chris Froome will be dispirited, but there is a lot of racing left to go, and in the end it was only one stage. Today's stage offers a good opportunity for attacking riding, and it would be surprising to not see some action on the Tourmalet. It is a very hard climb, and the descent from it is fast and technical, so any gaps can be maintained into the bottom of the next climb, even with an organised chase behind. The final climb is comparatively easy, and I doubt that there will be too much difference made at that part of the race. The problem that the other GC riders have is that Sky look to have an incredibly strong squad, with Porte and Thomas finishing 2nd and 6th respectively on the stage. Add Leopold Konig, and Sky clearly have the strongest climbers here. It will be very hard for any dangerous GC riders to escape, and realistically it looks like Froome could cover any attacks by himself in any case. If there's one spot where Froome's strength won't matter, it is the descent from the Tourmalet, and any riders in contact there will try and drop the Brit. He is by no means bad at descending, it's just not a particular strength.
The break will go early and will most likely be given a fair amount of time, with the volume of climbing left to go in the stage. I find it hard to believe that the win will go to the break, with the mostly flat terrain at the start making it hard to form a big breakaway with lots of good climbers, and the chasing easier for the peleton. Once the race hits the Tourmalet, the pace will be on and the breakaway should be swept up on the climb, perhaps on the descent. On the other hand, the stage finish doesn't really suit anyone that well, so it's possible that the break won't be actively pursued.
In terms of the points jerseys there will be a fairly early sprint, which will be the main target for the sprinters on the stage, and we may see some even join the breakaway, as the terrain isn't hard up to that point. This will be a key stage for the mountains jersey for those that aren't able to keep up with the main GC contenders as they will have to maximise their points elsewhere. Here, a Category 1 climb and a HC climb have big points on offer, not enough to beat Chris Froome, but plenty to be building a strong tally in the competition.
For the GC riders, all riders not named Chris Froome will be dispirited, but there is a lot of racing left to go, and in the end it was only one stage. Today's stage offers a good opportunity for attacking riding, and it would be surprising to not see some action on the Tourmalet. It is a very hard climb, and the descent from it is fast and technical, so any gaps can be maintained into the bottom of the next climb, even with an organised chase behind. The final climb is comparatively easy, and I doubt that there will be too much difference made at that part of the race. The problem that the other GC riders have is that Sky look to have an incredibly strong squad, with Porte and Thomas finishing 2nd and 6th respectively on the stage. Add Leopold Konig, and Sky clearly have the strongest climbers here. It will be very hard for any dangerous GC riders to escape, and realistically it looks like Froome could cover any attacks by himself in any case. If there's one spot where Froome's strength won't matter, it is the descent from the Tourmalet, and any riders in contact there will try and drop the Brit. He is by no means bad at descending, it's just not a particular strength.
Local Trivia
The region of Bearn which the Tour will go through today lends its name to Béarnaise sauce, one of the more famous sauces in French cuisine. The sauce rose to prominence in 1836 with the opening of Le Pavilion Henri IV, named for Henry IV, King of France, who himself was born in the Bearn region. There are a number of different recipes for Béarnaise sauce, but most contain clarified butter, white wine vinegar and egg yolks. Shallots, tarragon, chervil and pepper are often extra flavouring to the sauce, which I can personally attest is a good addition to steak.
The region of Bearn which the Tour will go through today lends its name to Béarnaise sauce, one of the more famous sauces in French cuisine. The sauce rose to prominence in 1836 with the opening of Le Pavilion Henri IV, named for Henry IV, King of France, who himself was born in the Bearn region. There are a number of different recipes for Béarnaise sauce, but most contain clarified butter, white wine vinegar and egg yolks. Shallots, tarragon, chervil and pepper are often extra flavouring to the sauce, which I can personally attest is a good addition to steak.
The Contenders
Chris Froome was very strong on the first mountain stage, and he'll be very confident on winning the Tour at this stage. Whether he'll win the stage is up for debate, I think the descent and the easier finishing climb won't be in his favour. On the other hand, he was so much stronger today that Sky could try and blow apart the race on the Tourmalet, and if Froome can get a gap there, he has shown that he has the strength to maintain it through to the finish.
I see the other GC riders as going to have a very tough time to win this stage, with Sky and Froome going to be very keen to shut them down, so I will discount their chances here. That means, Quintana, Contador, Valverde, Gesink, Nibali and van Garderen won't win today.
A break could go to the finish, and in that case you would be looking at names like Pierre Rolland, Pieter Weening, possibly even Tony Gallopin takes a shot at moving into yellow, as he's only 4 and a half minutes down.
Joaquim Rodriguez is a strong candidate for the win here, he was poor yesterday, but that was down to him not eating enough and suffering due to that. He is now well down in the GC battle, and will be given freedom to attack. He is a very good climber and a superb descender and he could even put 30 seconds or a minute into most riders on the drop from the Tourmalet. If he bounces back from the last stage, he could find his second win of the Tour here.
Chris Froome was very strong on the first mountain stage, and he'll be very confident on winning the Tour at this stage. Whether he'll win the stage is up for debate, I think the descent and the easier finishing climb won't be in his favour. On the other hand, he was so much stronger today that Sky could try and blow apart the race on the Tourmalet, and if Froome can get a gap there, he has shown that he has the strength to maintain it through to the finish.
I see the other GC riders as going to have a very tough time to win this stage, with Sky and Froome going to be very keen to shut them down, so I will discount their chances here. That means, Quintana, Contador, Valverde, Gesink, Nibali and van Garderen won't win today.
A break could go to the finish, and in that case you would be looking at names like Pierre Rolland, Pieter Weening, possibly even Tony Gallopin takes a shot at moving into yellow, as he's only 4 and a half minutes down.
Joaquim Rodriguez is a strong candidate for the win here, he was poor yesterday, but that was down to him not eating enough and suffering due to that. He is now well down in the GC battle, and will be given freedom to attack. He is a very good climber and a superb descender and he could even put 30 seconds or a minute into most riders on the drop from the Tourmalet. If he bounces back from the last stage, he could find his second win of the Tour here.
The Verdict
There are quite a few reasons why Rodriguez will be a strong candidate for the win here, and I think he will be right in contention.
There are quite a few reasons why Rodriguez will be a strong candidate for the win here, and I think he will be right in contention.