The first big mountain stage of the Tour, which will cull the non-climbers from the GC top ten, and give the riders the first chance to show their form on a proper climb. The winner at the top will also take on the mountains jersey as well.
The Course
It's a relatively easy run-in to the monster finishing climb of La Pierre Saint Martin (15.3 km, 7.4%). The first 10 km are the most difficult, averaging 8.75% and they are fairly consistent. The final 5.3 km average just 4.8% by comparison.
Fine weather and easy riding conditions for the riders here, which will make things a bit easier for everyone.
It's a relatively easy run-in to the monster finishing climb of La Pierre Saint Martin (15.3 km, 7.4%). The first 10 km are the most difficult, averaging 8.75% and they are fairly consistent. The final 5.3 km average just 4.8% by comparison.
Fine weather and easy riding conditions for the riders here, which will make things a bit easier for everyone.
The Tactics
The final climb is where all the action will take place on this stage, the break should be kept in hand, with a lot of GC teams having an interest in the stage win being on the line here, as the time bonuses will be valuable. Each of the main teams have quite a few riders who are good on the flat, but offer little on the climbs, so it will be their job to bring the escape back to catchable distance.
It is a really tough climb for the first 10 kms, and with all the domestiques on hand at the base, I think it will be a really hard pace from the bottom of the climb, and there will be riders dropping off rapidly. For this reason you couldt to come down to a battle of the strongest climbers from a fair way out. On the other hand, it is the first climb of the race, and the final 5 km are quite easy, so it will be hard to establish a difference amongst the top climbers on the shallower gradients or maintain it, if there is cooperation behind. So I'd boil it down to three scenarios here; only the favourites remain from fairly early on in the climb, and one or two make a break from a long way out say (6-7 km to go), or the riders come to the easier final 5 kms in a larger group of 10-15 riders, and the lesser riders (non-GC threats) go on the attack as they won't be marked, or the workers for one or two of the GC teams are dominant, and drop rider after rider almost right up to the summit, where there is a small sprint for the stage and time bonuses.
I consider the first scenario quite unlikely, it is early in the race, and it's a fairly easy stage up until the final climb, and I would have thought that there will be some domestiques around to chase down any escaped GC threats. Also it will be a lot of effort to maintain a break over that distance, especially with most of it coming on shallower gradients which will allow those riders in a larger group to ride more efficiently with drafting.
For the second scenario, there are a number of riders that are quite a way down already on GC, but are very good climbers, and could stay with the top contenders here until the flatter parts of the climb, where they could go on the attack. They won't be chased by the top GC guys themselves, as to do so would see them assisting their rivals, and allowing them to sit on and attack later. Any domestiques present will be the ones setting the pace at this point, and they generally aren't going to be going as fast as any escapees.
For the third scenario, it would require little attacking by the top riders, or if there is that it is quickly neutralised by others. This seems unlikely to me, as most of the GC riders are down by considerable time at this stage, and they'll be looking to take it back by attacking here. The exception to this may be if Team Sky are able to set a tempo which doesn't allow any attacks for the whole way up the climb. We've seen them do this before, perhaps most famously in the 2013 Tour on Ax 3 Domaines, where Froome won and Porte took second after a dominant performance on the climb. This is a very long climb however, and I think that the attacks will be coming thick and fast, and most of the domestiques will be gone before the summit. I'd say the second scenario is most likely for this stage.
The final climb is where all the action will take place on this stage, the break should be kept in hand, with a lot of GC teams having an interest in the stage win being on the line here, as the time bonuses will be valuable. Each of the main teams have quite a few riders who are good on the flat, but offer little on the climbs, so it will be their job to bring the escape back to catchable distance.
It is a really tough climb for the first 10 kms, and with all the domestiques on hand at the base, I think it will be a really hard pace from the bottom of the climb, and there will be riders dropping off rapidly. For this reason you couldt to come down to a battle of the strongest climbers from a fair way out. On the other hand, it is the first climb of the race, and the final 5 km are quite easy, so it will be hard to establish a difference amongst the top climbers on the shallower gradients or maintain it, if there is cooperation behind. So I'd boil it down to three scenarios here; only the favourites remain from fairly early on in the climb, and one or two make a break from a long way out say (6-7 km to go), or the riders come to the easier final 5 kms in a larger group of 10-15 riders, and the lesser riders (non-GC threats) go on the attack as they won't be marked, or the workers for one or two of the GC teams are dominant, and drop rider after rider almost right up to the summit, where there is a small sprint for the stage and time bonuses.
I consider the first scenario quite unlikely, it is early in the race, and it's a fairly easy stage up until the final climb, and I would have thought that there will be some domestiques around to chase down any escaped GC threats. Also it will be a lot of effort to maintain a break over that distance, especially with most of it coming on shallower gradients which will allow those riders in a larger group to ride more efficiently with drafting.
For the second scenario, there are a number of riders that are quite a way down already on GC, but are very good climbers, and could stay with the top contenders here until the flatter parts of the climb, where they could go on the attack. They won't be chased by the top GC guys themselves, as to do so would see them assisting their rivals, and allowing them to sit on and attack later. Any domestiques present will be the ones setting the pace at this point, and they generally aren't going to be going as fast as any escapees.
For the third scenario, it would require little attacking by the top riders, or if there is that it is quickly neutralised by others. This seems unlikely to me, as most of the GC riders are down by considerable time at this stage, and they'll be looking to take it back by attacking here. The exception to this may be if Team Sky are able to set a tempo which doesn't allow any attacks for the whole way up the climb. We've seen them do this before, perhaps most famously in the 2013 Tour on Ax 3 Domaines, where Froome won and Porte took second after a dominant performance on the climb. This is a very long climb however, and I think that the attacks will be coming thick and fast, and most of the domestiques will be gone before the summit. I'd say the second scenario is most likely for this stage.
Local Trivia
The stage runs through the province of Pyrenees-Atlantique, and it contains a large number of Basque speaking citizens. Basque is a language isolate, meaning that it contains no relatives, and the people who identify as Basque are fiercely independent. The Basque terrorist movement in Spain, ETA, was the most active terrorist organisation in Europe in the late 90's, but they haven't been operating on the same scope for some years. There are some Basque riders in the peleton, most notably, Romain Sicard, is from the Pyrenees-Atlantique department and speaks Basque, and was the only French member of the Basque-only team Euskatel-Euskadi.
The stage runs through the province of Pyrenees-Atlantique, and it contains a large number of Basque speaking citizens. Basque is a language isolate, meaning that it contains no relatives, and the people who identify as Basque are fiercely independent. The Basque terrorist movement in Spain, ETA, was the most active terrorist organisation in Europe in the late 90's, but they haven't been operating on the same scope for some years. There are some Basque riders in the peleton, most notably, Romain Sicard, is from the Pyrenees-Atlantique department and speaks Basque, and was the only French member of the Basque-only team Euskatel-Euskadi.
The Contenders
I'm going to lead off with the main GC riders, and work my way down to the other riders whom I consider more likely to win the stage.
Chris Froome looks to be in absolutely superb form at the moment, riding really well on the punchy climbs, and looking very powerful in the TTT, taking long pulls on the front, whilst the rest of the team rotated through quickly. He will find it very hard to win here however, as he will the most heavily marked rider here, and he doesn't have the best sprint of the contenders if it comes down to that at the end of the stage on the 5% gradient. I wouldn't expect him to lose any time to his main rivals here however, and even if he isn't feeling the strongest, he will have the strongest team to limit his losses.
Alberto Contador is the big rival for Froome, and they have had some memorable battles in the past. He will find it hard to break away from the top riders here, as he will be the second most marked here, and even if he is able to get away, it will be very hard for him to maintain his gap on the lesser gradients. He does have decent sprint on him, and if Rodriguez, Martin and Valverde are dropped, he should have a decent shot at a stage win from a late burst.
Nairo Quintana has had a quiet race to date, but that is probably good news for the pint-sized Colombian, as he has mostly stayed out of trouble, and he is only 2 minutes down on Froome, which is better than it might have been. It is close enough that the race will be decided in the mountains, and he is far back enough on GC that he may be allowed a bit of space, if he can find the right moment to attack, and the other contenders play chicken behind. This climb really doesn't suit him however, with the 5 km of shallower gradients really suiting a more powerful climber than the lightweight Colombian can put out.
Vincenzo Nibali would have been hoping to come into the mountains with a similar advantage to what the other favourites hold over him at the moment, but instead he'll have to fight from behind. He hasn't been superbly strong on the climbs to date, and really he holds better classics credentials than most, and so should have been in front of most of the GC riders, and certainly not losing time. So his form is a bit worrying but there is no doubting the class of Nibali, who has a great history in Grand Tours. He rarely rides badly, and it would be a big surprise if he doesn't take the attack to the other big names at some stage. for tactical reasons, I think it unlikely that he wins the stage, but it would be surprisingly to see him lose much time.
Tejay Van Garderen came in with some very good form in the Dauphine, and seems to be riding on top of his game here. He has had very good team support as well, and that has meant that he is only 12 seconds off Froome right now. He doesn't have the same climbing support of the others, so he will lose time if cracks, but with his current form that would be quite surprising. He has good attacking instincts, and could launch a winning move in the finale, and he will very keen to try and take the win and the yellow jersey.
Joaquim Rodriguez will be cursing his team at this stage of the Tour, as he personally has ridden very well, including impressive performances in Stage 3 which he won, and Stage 4 where he stayed with the best on the cobbles. Stage 2 and the TTT have been the stages where he has lost the most time and he is already 3 minutes 52 seconds adrift. Rodriguez's ambition for the Tour has always been to win, he has a number of podiums to his name already, and he only wants to win now. To do that he will have to be very attacking, to make up such a deficit. This stage will be very hard to make up much time on, and I think he will be better served to just follow wheels here. He has a pretty good sprint, and will be one of the favourites to win if he is in the front group at the finish.
Alejandro Valverde would be the top favourite on this sort of stage finish, as in normal circumstances, he would simply cover moves and then win the stage in a sprint at the summit. In this Tour, he looks to have gone almost full domestique for Quintana, only doing a late sprint to take third on Mur de Bretagne, when it was clear that Quintana wasn't going to lose any time. He also doesn't appear to be in top form at the moment, and I doubt that he'll be there in the finale. On the other hand, he rode very strongly in the TTT, actually splitting up his own team unintentionally, probably costing his team the stage win in the process. He won't win from anything but a sprint however, and only if Quintana doesn't need any support as well.
Bauke Mollema is a top rider at his best, but he has been in pretty bad form this season, which he has attributed to illness which he has since overcome. He didn't do particularly well in the Criterium Du Dauphine, but he has been good so far, and has limited his losses. This stage will be his first big test, and if he is on good form, he would be my top candidate to win the stage. He is a superb climber, and has plenty of power to maintain an attack on shallower gradients, which will be important on the second part of the climb.
Thibaut Pinot has had a pretty poor Tour to date, and is already 8 minutes off the lead. He has lost time at almost every possible opportunity, and will be particularly disappointed in the occasions where that was down to his climbing legs, like on Stages 3 and 8. He has been very strong in the season to date, and was in fact one of my top picks for the GC, but he looks a bit dispirited now, so I'll wait to see how he goes here. Certainly he won't be marked, being low down on the GC, and could skip away for a win, which would pick up his mood no doubt.
Daniel Martin is another rider who has lost a lot of time, but he has been very unlucky, losing out with a crash and a puncture on the cobbled stage, losing over 5 minutes there, and in the TTT. He will have to reevaluate his goals for the rest of the race, with Talansky sitting a lot better on GC, and he could become a super domestique for the American, and look to take his own opportunities when they arise. The finish here will suit him very well, his strength is that he is a punchy rider, and he showed on the Mur de Bretagne that he is in pretty good form. He could also win from a longer range move, and if he is still riding for his own prospects, then that could be a good way to gain time.
Andrew Talansky may well have taken over leadership of Cannondale-Garmin, and if he climbs well on this stage, that will cement it. He likes to ride aggressively, and he is very capable, on top form, of making a long range move stick. I'm not entirely sold on his form however, so I'll wait to see how he does.
Roman Bardet is an outstanding young French rider who will be very keen to shine in the Tour again, but he has got off to a bad start, losing a lot of time to date. He will be very keen to take that back, and he has an attacking mindset and the ability to win from afar, which he showed at the Dauphine. He was well off the pace on Stages 3 and 8, where he climbed poorly, and although I think he probably is in quite good form, he may have a small injury or illness to be finishing so low on those finishes.
The Yates brothers are another strong prospect for this stage, Adam wasn't far off making the winning move on the Mur de Bretagne, and Simon has been up there with the best all season. They probably don't yet have the recovery abilities of the top riders in the Grand Tours, so they have deliberately not tried to keep up with the GC, which will allow them more freedom in the mountains to win stages. This may or may not be a stage that they target, as they would have to stay with the GC riders for most of the race, and perhaps they will target easier opportunities later in the race. On the other hand, the dynamics of the stage will allow for an attack in the last 5 kms and if they are there, they will be given a lot of freedom to go for the win. I don't make much distinction between the twins, as their palmares is very similar, and watching them ride, you would be hard pressed to separate them on ability.
Alexis Vuillermoz was very close to being my recommended pick up the Mur de Bretagne, and obviously I'm kicking myself now. He's a good climber, probably not in the realm of the top guys here, but he is very good on the punchier climbs. If he can stay with the top riders here, then he could do a similar move to what we saw in Stage 8.
Romain Sicard will be my wildcard to win from the break, I think it likely that the break will be kept on a tight leash, but who knows, maybe they'll arrive at the bottom of the climb with a 6-7 minute advantage and have a chance at surviving to the top. Sicard is a good climber on occasion, and if you read my Local Trivia section, you will know that he's a local rider who'll be very keen to do well on home turf.
I'm going to lead off with the main GC riders, and work my way down to the other riders whom I consider more likely to win the stage.
Chris Froome looks to be in absolutely superb form at the moment, riding really well on the punchy climbs, and looking very powerful in the TTT, taking long pulls on the front, whilst the rest of the team rotated through quickly. He will find it very hard to win here however, as he will the most heavily marked rider here, and he doesn't have the best sprint of the contenders if it comes down to that at the end of the stage on the 5% gradient. I wouldn't expect him to lose any time to his main rivals here however, and even if he isn't feeling the strongest, he will have the strongest team to limit his losses.
Alberto Contador is the big rival for Froome, and they have had some memorable battles in the past. He will find it hard to break away from the top riders here, as he will be the second most marked here, and even if he is able to get away, it will be very hard for him to maintain his gap on the lesser gradients. He does have decent sprint on him, and if Rodriguez, Martin and Valverde are dropped, he should have a decent shot at a stage win from a late burst.
Nairo Quintana has had a quiet race to date, but that is probably good news for the pint-sized Colombian, as he has mostly stayed out of trouble, and he is only 2 minutes down on Froome, which is better than it might have been. It is close enough that the race will be decided in the mountains, and he is far back enough on GC that he may be allowed a bit of space, if he can find the right moment to attack, and the other contenders play chicken behind. This climb really doesn't suit him however, with the 5 km of shallower gradients really suiting a more powerful climber than the lightweight Colombian can put out.
Vincenzo Nibali would have been hoping to come into the mountains with a similar advantage to what the other favourites hold over him at the moment, but instead he'll have to fight from behind. He hasn't been superbly strong on the climbs to date, and really he holds better classics credentials than most, and so should have been in front of most of the GC riders, and certainly not losing time. So his form is a bit worrying but there is no doubting the class of Nibali, who has a great history in Grand Tours. He rarely rides badly, and it would be a big surprise if he doesn't take the attack to the other big names at some stage. for tactical reasons, I think it unlikely that he wins the stage, but it would be surprisingly to see him lose much time.
Tejay Van Garderen came in with some very good form in the Dauphine, and seems to be riding on top of his game here. He has had very good team support as well, and that has meant that he is only 12 seconds off Froome right now. He doesn't have the same climbing support of the others, so he will lose time if cracks, but with his current form that would be quite surprising. He has good attacking instincts, and could launch a winning move in the finale, and he will very keen to try and take the win and the yellow jersey.
Joaquim Rodriguez will be cursing his team at this stage of the Tour, as he personally has ridden very well, including impressive performances in Stage 3 which he won, and Stage 4 where he stayed with the best on the cobbles. Stage 2 and the TTT have been the stages where he has lost the most time and he is already 3 minutes 52 seconds adrift. Rodriguez's ambition for the Tour has always been to win, he has a number of podiums to his name already, and he only wants to win now. To do that he will have to be very attacking, to make up such a deficit. This stage will be very hard to make up much time on, and I think he will be better served to just follow wheels here. He has a pretty good sprint, and will be one of the favourites to win if he is in the front group at the finish.
Alejandro Valverde would be the top favourite on this sort of stage finish, as in normal circumstances, he would simply cover moves and then win the stage in a sprint at the summit. In this Tour, he looks to have gone almost full domestique for Quintana, only doing a late sprint to take third on Mur de Bretagne, when it was clear that Quintana wasn't going to lose any time. He also doesn't appear to be in top form at the moment, and I doubt that he'll be there in the finale. On the other hand, he rode very strongly in the TTT, actually splitting up his own team unintentionally, probably costing his team the stage win in the process. He won't win from anything but a sprint however, and only if Quintana doesn't need any support as well.
Bauke Mollema is a top rider at his best, but he has been in pretty bad form this season, which he has attributed to illness which he has since overcome. He didn't do particularly well in the Criterium Du Dauphine, but he has been good so far, and has limited his losses. This stage will be his first big test, and if he is on good form, he would be my top candidate to win the stage. He is a superb climber, and has plenty of power to maintain an attack on shallower gradients, which will be important on the second part of the climb.
Thibaut Pinot has had a pretty poor Tour to date, and is already 8 minutes off the lead. He has lost time at almost every possible opportunity, and will be particularly disappointed in the occasions where that was down to his climbing legs, like on Stages 3 and 8. He has been very strong in the season to date, and was in fact one of my top picks for the GC, but he looks a bit dispirited now, so I'll wait to see how he goes here. Certainly he won't be marked, being low down on the GC, and could skip away for a win, which would pick up his mood no doubt.
Daniel Martin is another rider who has lost a lot of time, but he has been very unlucky, losing out with a crash and a puncture on the cobbled stage, losing over 5 minutes there, and in the TTT. He will have to reevaluate his goals for the rest of the race, with Talansky sitting a lot better on GC, and he could become a super domestique for the American, and look to take his own opportunities when they arise. The finish here will suit him very well, his strength is that he is a punchy rider, and he showed on the Mur de Bretagne that he is in pretty good form. He could also win from a longer range move, and if he is still riding for his own prospects, then that could be a good way to gain time.
Andrew Talansky may well have taken over leadership of Cannondale-Garmin, and if he climbs well on this stage, that will cement it. He likes to ride aggressively, and he is very capable, on top form, of making a long range move stick. I'm not entirely sold on his form however, so I'll wait to see how he does.
Roman Bardet is an outstanding young French rider who will be very keen to shine in the Tour again, but he has got off to a bad start, losing a lot of time to date. He will be very keen to take that back, and he has an attacking mindset and the ability to win from afar, which he showed at the Dauphine. He was well off the pace on Stages 3 and 8, where he climbed poorly, and although I think he probably is in quite good form, he may have a small injury or illness to be finishing so low on those finishes.
The Yates brothers are another strong prospect for this stage, Adam wasn't far off making the winning move on the Mur de Bretagne, and Simon has been up there with the best all season. They probably don't yet have the recovery abilities of the top riders in the Grand Tours, so they have deliberately not tried to keep up with the GC, which will allow them more freedom in the mountains to win stages. This may or may not be a stage that they target, as they would have to stay with the GC riders for most of the race, and perhaps they will target easier opportunities later in the race. On the other hand, the dynamics of the stage will allow for an attack in the last 5 kms and if they are there, they will be given a lot of freedom to go for the win. I don't make much distinction between the twins, as their palmares is very similar, and watching them ride, you would be hard pressed to separate them on ability.
Alexis Vuillermoz was very close to being my recommended pick up the Mur de Bretagne, and obviously I'm kicking myself now. He's a good climber, probably not in the realm of the top guys here, but he is very good on the punchier climbs. If he can stay with the top riders here, then he could do a similar move to what we saw in Stage 8.
Romain Sicard will be my wildcard to win from the break, I think it likely that the break will be kept on a tight leash, but who knows, maybe they'll arrive at the bottom of the climb with a 6-7 minute advantage and have a chance at surviving to the top. Sicard is a good climber on occasion, and if you read my Local Trivia section, you will know that he's a local rider who'll be very keen to do well on home turf.
The Verdict
I feel that Bauke Mollema is going to be hard to hold out here, but the nature of the stage means that lots of riders could take out a win.
I feel that Bauke Mollema is going to be hard to hold out here, but the nature of the stage means that lots of riders could take out a win.