This jersey has been in Peter Sagan's safekeeping for the last three years, but there has been a points tweak this year, favouring the winners of the stages. Will it be enough to topple the Slovakian at his new team? Certainly Mark Cavendish, Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Michael Matthews, Andre Greipel and perhaps even Marcel Kittel will be keen to take the jersey for themselves.
The Rules
A rider gets points for finishing in the top 15 on every stage except the team time trial. Stages are classified into a few different classes, and the amount of points that you get at the finish depend on which class it falls into.
Class 1 stages give the riders (in order of finish); 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2.
Class 2 and 3 stages give the riders; 30, 25, 22, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2.
Class 4, 5 and 6 stages give the riders; 20, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
Class 4, 5 and 6 Include the high mountain stages and the opening time trial. Actually some of the sprinters could do quite well in the TT, with the shorter, technical course likely to suit quite a few of the green jersey contenders.
The intermediate sprints have 20, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 on offer, with one sprint point on offer each stage.
A rider gets points for finishing in the top 15 on every stage except the team time trial. Stages are classified into a few different classes, and the amount of points that you get at the finish depend on which class it falls into.
Class 1 stages give the riders (in order of finish); 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2.
Class 2 and 3 stages give the riders; 30, 25, 22, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2.
Class 4, 5 and 6 stages give the riders; 20, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
Class 4, 5 and 6 Include the high mountain stages and the opening time trial. Actually some of the sprinters could do quite well in the TT, with the shorter, technical course likely to suit quite a few of the green jersey contenders.
The intermediate sprints have 20, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 on offer, with one sprint point on offer each stage.
The Tactics
Whilst a lot of winning the sprint jersey depends upon going fast at the end of stages, it is by no means the be all and end all of winning the classification. Sagan for instance, has won one stage over the last two editions of the Tour, but has won the green jersey both times, mostly because he can contest finishes that other sprinters aren't able to, but also because he can go into the breaks on mountains stages and hoover up intermediate sprint points.
There are six Class 1 stages, specifically 2, 5, 6, 7, 15, 21. Not all are straightforward sprint finishes however, Stage 6 for instance, will probably only see Matthews and Sagan able to get up the final climb to challenge for the win, whilst Stage 7 has an uphill finish.
The Class 2 and 3 stages are 3, 4, 8, 10, 13, 14, 16. Stages 3 and 8 each end with a Mur (Huy and Bretagne), and are not ones for the sprinters. Stage 4 is the cobbled stage, and a good chance for Kristoff, Degenkolb and Sagan to gain some points on the other contenders. Stage 10 is a proper summit finish, and Stages 13 and 16 will also be too hard for sprinters to contest the win. Stage 14 is at the end of very tough last 570 m climb, and is Matthews and Sagan territory.
The intermediate sprint points are often where the main tactics of the points classification are played out. Given that the break will often take most of the points, well at least the high scoring points, it will be less about actually winning the intermediate sprints and instead just making sure that you get some points. The exception to this will be where the sprinters have no chance of winning the stage, and the sprint point is located before they are dropped. For instance, the sprint point comes before the main sections of cobbles in Stage 4, and will be hotly contested by Cavendish, who doesn't have much of a chance at the stage win. Occasionally, you have the teammates of the sprinters try and take points off their rivals by launching early attacks, or attempting to finish just behind their own sprinter and take up an extra few points. On mountain stages, some sprinters are good enough climbers to get into the breaks and take the intermediate points, Sagan has done this before, Matthews, Degenkolb and perhaps even Kristoff could also pursue this sort of strategy as well.
Whilst a lot of winning the sprint jersey depends upon going fast at the end of stages, it is by no means the be all and end all of winning the classification. Sagan for instance, has won one stage over the last two editions of the Tour, but has won the green jersey both times, mostly because he can contest finishes that other sprinters aren't able to, but also because he can go into the breaks on mountains stages and hoover up intermediate sprint points.
There are six Class 1 stages, specifically 2, 5, 6, 7, 15, 21. Not all are straightforward sprint finishes however, Stage 6 for instance, will probably only see Matthews and Sagan able to get up the final climb to challenge for the win, whilst Stage 7 has an uphill finish.
The Class 2 and 3 stages are 3, 4, 8, 10, 13, 14, 16. Stages 3 and 8 each end with a Mur (Huy and Bretagne), and are not ones for the sprinters. Stage 4 is the cobbled stage, and a good chance for Kristoff, Degenkolb and Sagan to gain some points on the other contenders. Stage 10 is a proper summit finish, and Stages 13 and 16 will also be too hard for sprinters to contest the win. Stage 14 is at the end of very tough last 570 m climb, and is Matthews and Sagan territory.
The intermediate sprint points are often where the main tactics of the points classification are played out. Given that the break will often take most of the points, well at least the high scoring points, it will be less about actually winning the intermediate sprints and instead just making sure that you get some points. The exception to this will be where the sprinters have no chance of winning the stage, and the sprint point is located before they are dropped. For instance, the sprint point comes before the main sections of cobbles in Stage 4, and will be hotly contested by Cavendish, who doesn't have much of a chance at the stage win. Occasionally, you have the teammates of the sprinters try and take points off their rivals by launching early attacks, or attempting to finish just behind their own sprinter and take up an extra few points. On mountain stages, some sprinters are good enough climbers to get into the breaks and take the intermediate points, Sagan has done this before, Matthews, Degenkolb and perhaps even Kristoff could also pursue this sort of strategy as well.
The Contenders
It's going to be tough for a pure sprinter to win the green jersey this year, with only a handful of stages which really suit someone without climbing ability. Marcel Kittel for instance, doesn't make this list for this reason, and also because he has had an awful year to date.
Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel, Nacer Bouhanni and Sam Bennet are the those closest to the pure sprinters with a chance in the competition. All aren't actually too bad at climbing, and can survive tough days in the saddle, but they lack the explosiveness that quite a few of the stage finishes will require. They won't miss out on slight uphill finishes like Stage 7 however, Stages 6 and 8 will be too tough. Also none are cobbles specialists so Stage 4 is also off the cards. What this means is they will have to make the most of the properly flat stages, and the only one I can see doing this enough to possibly take the green jersey is Mark Cavendish. He took a break after an impressive Tour of California, and when he came back, he wasn't very impressive at the Tour de Suisse. However, he has years of experience at arriving at the Tour in top form, and that should continue. He is probably the fastest rider in the pro peleton at the moment, and will have a full sprint train at his disposal.
Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews and Arnaud Demare are the all-rounders, and will look to pick up points on the hilly finishes and the cobbles stage. Of course their talent in the various areas is far from uniform, Matthews is the best climber in the group, but he has no experience on the cobbles, and isn't going to win many flat sprints. Demare and Kristoff can lurch themselves over the cobbles very proficiently, but aren't particularly adept climbers. Degenkolb and Sagan are the true all-rounders of the group, both can sprint, climb and cobble with the best. As such, it shouldn't surprise that those two are my favourites for taking the green jersey home with them. Degenkolb may have the additional complicating factor of Marcel Kittel, whose participation is up in the air at the moment. Sagan, on the other hand has the issue of having to play second fiddle to Alberto Contador, and will have to largely do his own thing throughout the race.
It's going to be tough for a pure sprinter to win the green jersey this year, with only a handful of stages which really suit someone without climbing ability. Marcel Kittel for instance, doesn't make this list for this reason, and also because he has had an awful year to date.
Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel, Nacer Bouhanni and Sam Bennet are the those closest to the pure sprinters with a chance in the competition. All aren't actually too bad at climbing, and can survive tough days in the saddle, but they lack the explosiveness that quite a few of the stage finishes will require. They won't miss out on slight uphill finishes like Stage 7 however, Stages 6 and 8 will be too tough. Also none are cobbles specialists so Stage 4 is also off the cards. What this means is they will have to make the most of the properly flat stages, and the only one I can see doing this enough to possibly take the green jersey is Mark Cavendish. He took a break after an impressive Tour of California, and when he came back, he wasn't very impressive at the Tour de Suisse. However, he has years of experience at arriving at the Tour in top form, and that should continue. He is probably the fastest rider in the pro peleton at the moment, and will have a full sprint train at his disposal.
Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews and Arnaud Demare are the all-rounders, and will look to pick up points on the hilly finishes and the cobbles stage. Of course their talent in the various areas is far from uniform, Matthews is the best climber in the group, but he has no experience on the cobbles, and isn't going to win many flat sprints. Demare and Kristoff can lurch themselves over the cobbles very proficiently, but aren't particularly adept climbers. Degenkolb and Sagan are the true all-rounders of the group, both can sprint, climb and cobble with the best. As such, it shouldn't surprise that those two are my favourites for taking the green jersey home with them. Degenkolb may have the additional complicating factor of Marcel Kittel, whose participation is up in the air at the moment. Sagan, on the other hand has the issue of having to play second fiddle to Alberto Contador, and will have to largely do his own thing throughout the race.
The Verdict
It seems disappointingly obvious, but it looks like Peter Sagan has the edge on the competition here, he has the ability to gain points on more stages than any of his opposition. He is in superb form at the moment, taking two wins and two seconds at the Tour de Suisse.
I might have come up with a different verdict if there was a standout sprinter for the flat stages, but I think the wins will largely be shared around, and it will be hard to counteract Sagan's points-hoovering on the other stages.
It seems disappointingly obvious, but it looks like Peter Sagan has the edge on the competition here, he has the ability to gain points on more stages than any of his opposition. He is in superb form at the moment, taking two wins and two seconds at the Tour de Suisse.
I might have come up with a different verdict if there was a standout sprinter for the flat stages, but I think the wins will largely be shared around, and it will be hard to counteract Sagan's points-hoovering on the other stages.