It's unofficially known as the sprinter's world championship, but the field is pretty depleted this year, without the three fastest men in the world present (Kittel, Cavendish and Greipel). In their absence, we have the red-hot Kristoff, who will be favoured to add to his very impressive recent form with a win here. Read on for the Scheldeprijs-view!
The Course
The reason this race is known as the sprinter's world championships is because it is the only classic without anything to stop it being a bunch sprint finish. The 1.7 km Broeckstraat cobbled section is the closest the race comes to having a tough section, but the cobbles are very easy compared to recent tests that the riders have faced, and are never a decisive factor in determining the winner.
The length of the course isn't prohibitive either, at 201 kms it would be longish for a Grand Tour stage, but it is well under most of the classics, especially given the ease with which the riders will negotiate the terrain.
The weather can affect the riders, with rainy conditions often resulting in crashes, and windy conditions giving the opportunity for splits in the crosswinds, but that won't be a factor during this edition as the forecast is sunny with little wind.
The reason this race is known as the sprinter's world championships is because it is the only classic without anything to stop it being a bunch sprint finish. The 1.7 km Broeckstraat cobbled section is the closest the race comes to having a tough section, but the cobbles are very easy compared to recent tests that the riders have faced, and are never a decisive factor in determining the winner.
The length of the course isn't prohibitive either, at 201 kms it would be longish for a Grand Tour stage, but it is well under most of the classics, especially given the ease with which the riders will negotiate the terrain.
The weather can affect the riders, with rainy conditions often resulting in crashes, and windy conditions giving the opportunity for splits in the crosswinds, but that won't be a factor during this edition as the forecast is sunny with little wind.
The Tactics
Unfortunately there's not much to include in this section, the break will go, be chased by Katusha and Sky and brought back. There is the potential for late moves to be made, but the peleton is normally rumbling along pretty quick by this stage as the battle for positions intensifies at the front of the race. Even in this battle, strength must be rationed by the leadout trains, as the race ends with 2 km straight run-in to the finish on a very wide road, which ends up being an absolute drag race for the sprinters' trains and the sprint itself is the same, one for the really fast men. There isn't much room for team tactics in the finale, and it will come down to the power of the leadouts, for the riders lucky enough to have a dedicated train at their disposal, and in fighting for the right wheel for those that aren't so lucky.
Unfortunately there's not much to include in this section, the break will go, be chased by Katusha and Sky and brought back. There is the potential for late moves to be made, but the peleton is normally rumbling along pretty quick by this stage as the battle for positions intensifies at the front of the race. Even in this battle, strength must be rationed by the leadout trains, as the race ends with 2 km straight run-in to the finish on a very wide road, which ends up being an absolute drag race for the sprinters' trains and the sprint itself is the same, one for the really fast men. There isn't much room for team tactics in the finale, and it will come down to the power of the leadouts, for the riders lucky enough to have a dedicated train at their disposal, and in fighting for the right wheel for those that aren't so lucky.
The Contenders
I may have tipped my hand a bit early on this one, by putting Kristoff's picture up top, but I find it very hard to believe that he will be beaten here. He is in absolute top form at the moment, taking four victories last week alone, 5 if you include the GC in Drieesdage de Panne. In the past, you would have said that he needs the race to be hard to really be amongst the fastest men, but has clearly taken a step up in all aspects of his cycling, including top-end speed, and he is now a match for any sprinter in the world. He also has recent wins over his biggest threats here (Viviani and Guardini), and perhaps the only reason that he might not win the race is that he doesn't contest the sprint. He certainly is coming off a lot of racing and he does still have Paris-Roubaix to go, but I think that if he needed a rest he would be taking the race off, rather than going for a 201 km training ride in race conditions where he could well crash and scotch his chances anyway.
Elia Viviani is an enigmatic sprinter, who has spent his career just finishing off the top sprinters in the big races. He certainly has a lot of speed, and he has shown it this season, often coming from well back to grab a podium spot. Unfortunately, that also shows his weakness, in that he is often starting his sprint from well back, as he hasn't had the best of times establishing a working relationship with his leadout, and he has yet to be launched really effectively, except perhaps in the Tour of Dubai, where Sky did get it right, and he won a stage, and seriously challenged Cavendish in most of the finishes. He is also fairly inconsistent with his results, which probably also comes down to his poor positioning, so it is hard to know how he will go on any given day.
Andrea Guardini has had a great start to the season, as he normally does, and he already has a good number of results to his name. Like Viviani he was good in Dubai, took a 1st and a 2nd in Oman and four wins in Langkawi. As I said though, he always starts well, and when the other sprinters get into form, his wins start drying up. This is shown in his recent results, a few DNFs in the classics, and then a poor Drieesdage de Panne, where he was only in the picture for one of the sprints. He's also got a yard less pace than some of the others here, and will have to have a very good day to win this one.
Sam Bennet is the up and coming Bora-Argon sprinter who has enjoyed an encouraging start to his career, currently in his second year as a pro. He doesn't have a dedicated leadout normally, and is still learning the positioning game, and that is shown in his results, as he isn't a consistent presence up the top of the results sheet yet. When it does go right in the lead-in, he has shown that he can finish it off, with a win in Qatar and a 3rd in Tirreno testament to that.
About the only other rider that I can see with a chance at the top step of the podium is Alexander Porsev, who may get his chance if Kristoff opts to play teammate for this one. He is a big, powerful rider who will be suited by this sort of sprint, and if he has Kristoff as his leadout, he will have the best chance of taking a big win in his career. He started the season well in Dubai, but has gone off the boil since then, and is still yet to place higher than 4th.
I may have tipped my hand a bit early on this one, by putting Kristoff's picture up top, but I find it very hard to believe that he will be beaten here. He is in absolute top form at the moment, taking four victories last week alone, 5 if you include the GC in Drieesdage de Panne. In the past, you would have said that he needs the race to be hard to really be amongst the fastest men, but has clearly taken a step up in all aspects of his cycling, including top-end speed, and he is now a match for any sprinter in the world. He also has recent wins over his biggest threats here (Viviani and Guardini), and perhaps the only reason that he might not win the race is that he doesn't contest the sprint. He certainly is coming off a lot of racing and he does still have Paris-Roubaix to go, but I think that if he needed a rest he would be taking the race off, rather than going for a 201 km training ride in race conditions where he could well crash and scotch his chances anyway.
Elia Viviani is an enigmatic sprinter, who has spent his career just finishing off the top sprinters in the big races. He certainly has a lot of speed, and he has shown it this season, often coming from well back to grab a podium spot. Unfortunately, that also shows his weakness, in that he is often starting his sprint from well back, as he hasn't had the best of times establishing a working relationship with his leadout, and he has yet to be launched really effectively, except perhaps in the Tour of Dubai, where Sky did get it right, and he won a stage, and seriously challenged Cavendish in most of the finishes. He is also fairly inconsistent with his results, which probably also comes down to his poor positioning, so it is hard to know how he will go on any given day.
Andrea Guardini has had a great start to the season, as he normally does, and he already has a good number of results to his name. Like Viviani he was good in Dubai, took a 1st and a 2nd in Oman and four wins in Langkawi. As I said though, he always starts well, and when the other sprinters get into form, his wins start drying up. This is shown in his recent results, a few DNFs in the classics, and then a poor Drieesdage de Panne, where he was only in the picture for one of the sprints. He's also got a yard less pace than some of the others here, and will have to have a very good day to win this one.
Sam Bennet is the up and coming Bora-Argon sprinter who has enjoyed an encouraging start to his career, currently in his second year as a pro. He doesn't have a dedicated leadout normally, and is still learning the positioning game, and that is shown in his results, as he isn't a consistent presence up the top of the results sheet yet. When it does go right in the lead-in, he has shown that he can finish it off, with a win in Qatar and a 3rd in Tirreno testament to that.
About the only other rider that I can see with a chance at the top step of the podium is Alexander Porsev, who may get his chance if Kristoff opts to play teammate for this one. He is a big, powerful rider who will be suited by this sort of sprint, and if he has Kristoff as his leadout, he will have the best chance of taking a big win in his career. He started the season well in Dubai, but has gone off the boil since then, and is still yet to place higher than 4th.
The Verdict
No wasting time here, Alexander Kristoff is the clear top pick here, the biggest obstacle to him winning will be himself, and his priorities for the upcoming racing schedule.
No wasting time here, Alexander Kristoff is the clear top pick here, the biggest obstacle to him winning will be himself, and his priorities for the upcoming racing schedule.