Arguably the biggest day on the cycling calendar is now upon us, with no one sure who will emerge as the conqueror of the hellingen. Recent champions Cancellara and Boonen are out, and a result Stijn Devolder will be the only rider present on the startline who has won the race before. It looks to be a very open race, with the lead-up classics proving very unpredicatable, with a number of surprise winners.
The Course
All the Flemish cobbled classics use the same area and the same climbs for their routes. The only real differences are the starting and finishing cities and how difficult the organisers decide to make the route. The Tour of Flanders is the toughest and the longest, meaning that only the strongest riders make it to the finish, let alone the podium. The weather is all important as well in determining how selective the race will be, but there should be relatively benign conditions, with low winds, no rain and an expected 8 degrees Celsius. Obviously that's not warm, but it is unlikely to put many riders into much difficulty without rain.
The initial portion of the race will be a flat traverse from the starting city of Brugge into Flanders, and the riders won't see a climb until 87 kms in, where the Tiegenberg (750m, 5.6%) serves as an appetiser for the action to come. Then it's off to Oudenaarde which will be the finishing point for the race, and from there it is 165 kms of further racing until they return to the finish line here.
We get our first taste of what is going to be one of the decisive climbs of the race as the riders ascend the Oude Kwaremont (2.2 kms, 4%), which combines some of the toughest cobbles with the longest climb in the race. Teams looking to make the race really hard will drive the pace up the Kwarmemont on each time of asking. From there, it goes; the Kortekeer (800m, 6.9%), the Eikenberg (1 km, 5.2%), the Wolvenberg (650m, 7.9%), the Ruttenstraat (850 m), Kerkgate (2.3 kms) amd Holleweg (350m), which are all pave sectors. The Molenberg (450m, 7%) concludes this section of racing with still 118 kms to go. It is far too far from the finish for moves of any significance to be made at this point, and the racing up until now will be for the purpose of trying to make the race hard for later on.
The riders are granted some respite, with 20 kms of flat roads before the hellingen again rise on the horizon. The Leberg (950 m, 4.2%), the Berendries (950 m, 7%), the Valkenberg (550 m, 8.1%), the Kaperpilj (1 km, 5.5%) and the Kanarieberg (1 km, 7.7%). After this there are 70kms left, and 16kms until the next climb, so it will provide another chance for riders to catch their breath. This section of the race isn't particularly hard and may be a good opportunity for the more aggressive teams to try and get some riders up the road.
With 54 kms to go the racing kicks up a notch, with the second ascent of the Kwaremont (2.2 kms, 5%), which heads straight into the Paterberg (360 m, 12.9%) and it is not far until the Koppenberg (650 m, 11.6%). These three climbs are arguably the toughest of the race, and it is in this section that we will likely see the first major selection form and the first of the major attacks go. It is traditionally very hard to make up ground if you are caught behind at this point, as it is normally full gas from here to the finish.
The Steenbeekdries (700 m, 5.3%) is next with 39 kms left and the Taaienberg (530 m, 6.6%) follows close on its heels with only 36 kms remaining. From here, it is a chance for the teams to regroup and reassess their tactics as the asphalted Kruisberg (2.5 kms, 5%) is the only obstacle before the 16 kms to go mark, where the Kwarmenont-Paterberg double must again be tackled. after the Paterberg it is 13 kms to the finish, and more often than not, the riders at the front after the Paterberg are the ones that will contest the victory amongst themselves.
All the Flemish cobbled classics use the same area and the same climbs for their routes. The only real differences are the starting and finishing cities and how difficult the organisers decide to make the route. The Tour of Flanders is the toughest and the longest, meaning that only the strongest riders make it to the finish, let alone the podium. The weather is all important as well in determining how selective the race will be, but there should be relatively benign conditions, with low winds, no rain and an expected 8 degrees Celsius. Obviously that's not warm, but it is unlikely to put many riders into much difficulty without rain.
The initial portion of the race will be a flat traverse from the starting city of Brugge into Flanders, and the riders won't see a climb until 87 kms in, where the Tiegenberg (750m, 5.6%) serves as an appetiser for the action to come. Then it's off to Oudenaarde which will be the finishing point for the race, and from there it is 165 kms of further racing until they return to the finish line here.
We get our first taste of what is going to be one of the decisive climbs of the race as the riders ascend the Oude Kwaremont (2.2 kms, 4%), which combines some of the toughest cobbles with the longest climb in the race. Teams looking to make the race really hard will drive the pace up the Kwarmemont on each time of asking. From there, it goes; the Kortekeer (800m, 6.9%), the Eikenberg (1 km, 5.2%), the Wolvenberg (650m, 7.9%), the Ruttenstraat (850 m), Kerkgate (2.3 kms) amd Holleweg (350m), which are all pave sectors. The Molenberg (450m, 7%) concludes this section of racing with still 118 kms to go. It is far too far from the finish for moves of any significance to be made at this point, and the racing up until now will be for the purpose of trying to make the race hard for later on.
The riders are granted some respite, with 20 kms of flat roads before the hellingen again rise on the horizon. The Leberg (950 m, 4.2%), the Berendries (950 m, 7%), the Valkenberg (550 m, 8.1%), the Kaperpilj (1 km, 5.5%) and the Kanarieberg (1 km, 7.7%). After this there are 70kms left, and 16kms until the next climb, so it will provide another chance for riders to catch their breath. This section of the race isn't particularly hard and may be a good opportunity for the more aggressive teams to try and get some riders up the road.
With 54 kms to go the racing kicks up a notch, with the second ascent of the Kwaremont (2.2 kms, 5%), which heads straight into the Paterberg (360 m, 12.9%) and it is not far until the Koppenberg (650 m, 11.6%). These three climbs are arguably the toughest of the race, and it is in this section that we will likely see the first major selection form and the first of the major attacks go. It is traditionally very hard to make up ground if you are caught behind at this point, as it is normally full gas from here to the finish.
The Steenbeekdries (700 m, 5.3%) is next with 39 kms left and the Taaienberg (530 m, 6.6%) follows close on its heels with only 36 kms remaining. From here, it is a chance for the teams to regroup and reassess their tactics as the asphalted Kruisberg (2.5 kms, 5%) is the only obstacle before the 16 kms to go mark, where the Kwarmenont-Paterberg double must again be tackled. after the Paterberg it is 13 kms to the finish, and more often than not, the riders at the front after the Paterberg are the ones that will contest the victory amongst themselves.
The Tactics
The great thing about the tactics for the Ronde Van Vlaanderen is that they are constantly being adapted to the race situation. Crashes cause splits in the peleton, with riders furiously trying to chase back on, attacks force riders to make split second decisions to follow attackers or save energy and have faith that their team is strong enough to bring the escapee back.
In this edition, a lot of the riders will be worried about the presence of Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb, who will doubtless be the winners if they are brought to the finale with the front group. So the teams of the top riders will have to make the race hard to either drop them, or make it so difficult that they are unable to respond when their leader makes his big attack, Of course it may be that even that doesn't work and a sprinter makes the front group. At that point, we have seen groups stop cooperating and being caught pretty quickly, or the sprinter being forced to do the majority of the work to drive the group.
Speed on the finish line isn't the only decisive factor, having the numbers in the finale can also be crucial. Making a one-two punch, or even just giving a rider a leadout can be the difference between winning and not at the end of these tough races. Despite the absence of Boonen, Ettix-Quickstep still have the strength in numbers required to win this event, and whilst most teams would be very happy with 2 riders in the first or second groups as it comes to the finale, EQS will probably have 4-5 riders present, which offers a tactical flexibility that most teams don't have. In fact in Stybar and Terpstra they have two of the big favourites as well, so they clearly have a very strong hand to play still. In the past, they have been more reactive than proactive, but I doubt that they can continue those sort of tactics with the threat of Degenkolb and Kristoff looming. I can see them trying get numbers up the road from quite early on, both for aiding their favourites for later and forcing other teams to chase, but also for their own chances. Riders like Vandenbergh, Trentin, Van Keirsbulck and Lampaert are all quality riders, and if they are given too much space they can ride away to victory.
The great thing about the tactics for the Ronde Van Vlaanderen is that they are constantly being adapted to the race situation. Crashes cause splits in the peleton, with riders furiously trying to chase back on, attacks force riders to make split second decisions to follow attackers or save energy and have faith that their team is strong enough to bring the escapee back.
In this edition, a lot of the riders will be worried about the presence of Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb, who will doubtless be the winners if they are brought to the finale with the front group. So the teams of the top riders will have to make the race hard to either drop them, or make it so difficult that they are unable to respond when their leader makes his big attack, Of course it may be that even that doesn't work and a sprinter makes the front group. At that point, we have seen groups stop cooperating and being caught pretty quickly, or the sprinter being forced to do the majority of the work to drive the group.
Speed on the finish line isn't the only decisive factor, having the numbers in the finale can also be crucial. Making a one-two punch, or even just giving a rider a leadout can be the difference between winning and not at the end of these tough races. Despite the absence of Boonen, Ettix-Quickstep still have the strength in numbers required to win this event, and whilst most teams would be very happy with 2 riders in the first or second groups as it comes to the finale, EQS will probably have 4-5 riders present, which offers a tactical flexibility that most teams don't have. In fact in Stybar and Terpstra they have two of the big favourites as well, so they clearly have a very strong hand to play still. In the past, they have been more reactive than proactive, but I doubt that they can continue those sort of tactics with the threat of Degenkolb and Kristoff looming. I can see them trying get numbers up the road from quite early on, both for aiding their favourites for later and forcing other teams to chase, but also for their own chances. Riders like Vandenbergh, Trentin, Van Keirsbulck and Lampaert are all quality riders, and if they are given too much space they can ride away to victory.
The Contenders
Sep Vanmarcke is the last of the big favourites who has remained on his bike, and deserves the favourite tag for this race. He has been impressive so far without winning, but he has had legitimate excuses, being caught behind crashes, punctures and mechanical issues. Nonetheless, he has looked the strongest at a number of races, In the Omloop he single-handedly nearly dragged back a minutes advantage on the winning group after he suffered two punctures which caused him to miss the move. In E3 he destroyed his pedal during an attack, and couldn't clip back in, so he could only push for the last 30 kms of the race. So he's suffered his share of bad fortune, but it would still be nice to see him take a victory, particularly without Cancellara and Boonen around. Whilst strong, he's going to be disadvantaged by his lack of team support, I can't really see any of them making it to the finale with him and being able to assist in the chasing.
Geraint Thomas is the other rider who many have flagged as the rider to watch in this edition, and it is hard to argue with that, as he is in scintillating form, winning Algarve, placing 4th in Paris-Nice, looking strong in Milan San-Remo, and just to prove he hasn't forgotten about the cobbles, winning E3, then backing up with a very strong third after being blown off his bike by a strong gust of wind., It is worth noting though, that whilst Thomas has been good at E3 in the past (3rd and 4th in the two previous editions) he hasn't been an animator in the Ronde. He also wouldn't have won E3 except due to the crash by Van Avermaet as the chase group behind was only 10 seconds away. His crash really took the momentum out of the chase, and Thomas was able to ride away from Stybar and Sagan. He could also face the same problem as Vanmarcke in that he won't have a strong team presence. Wiggins, Rowe and Stannard may be there, but given their recent form, I wouldn't be too confident of that happening.
Greg Van Avermaet is another obvious contender for the win. after he arguably should have won last year. He wasn't helped at all by Vandenbergh, when if he had been, they would have had enough of an advantage to keep Cancellara and Vanmarcke at bay. He also messed up the sprint, waiting for far too long, and allowing Cancellara to get the jump. This year he looks just as strong, but also has finally managed to win a race, beating out Sagan and Stybar on a cobbled uphill sprint in Tirreno-Adriactico. He took a spectacular tumble in E3, and will be riding with some back pain, but he says that he thinks he'll be fine. it might cost him a few percent however, which will be crucial in a race like this.
Alexander Kristoff is in great form at the moment, winning three stages and the GC in De Panne, just missing out in Milan San-Remo and taking a number of wins earlier in the season as well. Last year, he was in the second group one the road, and after realising that they wouldn't help him catch up to the group in front, attacked and almost made up the gap, eventually finishing just 8 seconds behind. He may suffer from the same problem again this year, as no one will want to go to the finish with him, but this time he'll have the reborn Luca Paolini there to work for him, as well as John Degenkolb, who could be an ally, given that both will want a sprint finish.
Speaking of, John Degenkolb will be trying to add a second Monument for the season to his mantelpiece. He has the ability to tackle the cobbles, though he prefers the pave of Roubaix to the hellingen of Flanders. He will have the problem of lack of team support that many of the other favourites will also face, also he may find it tough to follow the best riders on the climbs. Nonetheless, he proved in San-Remo that he is one of the fastest at the end of these tough races, so if he can get to the finale he will be hard to beat.
Zdenek Stybar looks to be in the middle of his breakout season, taking a memorable win in Strade Bianche and then finishing 2nd to Thomas in E3. He's always had the bike handling skills to do well on the cobbles, but now he has the power as well. He and Terpstra will share the team captaincy, and I think it likely that we'll see one go quite early, whilst the other marks moves. Stybar will probably be the one to mark the moves, whilst Terpstra will probably attack from further, as Stybar has the more impressive sprint. Terpstra has also been in very good form this season, taking the GC in the Tour of Qatar for the second year in a row, before finishing 2nd in Omloop and then 2nd in Gent-Wevelgem. His performance in this race last year was the strongest of the entire team, trying to bridge to the first group from the second, but like Kristoff, falling short.
Peter Sagan is a rider that you always have to mention, but I quite frankly can't come up with a scenario which he looks like winning. He is significantly weaker than previous years, as well as slower in the sprint. There are faster riders in the event that it comes down to a bunch sprint, and no one will want to work with him in a small group, because he will still be faster than them. He additionally doesn't have the strength to split the race apart by himself. Additionally he has little team support as well as the additional distraction of team upheaval in the management.
Jurgen Roelandts and Daniel Oss, though they aren't on the same team, I've decided to group them together as I think they have roughly the same chance of winning and if they do, it will be in a similar way. Both are very strong over the cobbles, but they aren't recognised as the top favourites. They don't attract an immediate response when they attack from the peleton, and so could well get a gap, and then have some freedom up the road. Both were top 10 in E3 and Gent-Wevelgem, and Roelandts in particular showed just how he might win the Ronde, with a superb 60 km solo attack. He obviously needed more help, and for the attack to be a bit shorter. The Koppenberg with 45 kms to go looks an ideal launching pad for this sort of second-tier rider attack, and if they can get a decent gap, then it could well be the last time the peleton sees them. I'd also put Lars Boom, Jean-Pierre Drucker, Sylvain Chavanel, Bjorn Leukemans, Ian Stannard and Heinrich Haussler in this group as well, though none of them has the same form as Oss or Roelandts.
Not strictly contenders, but I'll be interested to see some of the young riders and how they fare, particularly if they look like they might be future contenders. Jasper Stuyven (Trek), Sean De Bie and Tiesj Benoot (both Lotto-Soudal), Matthias Brandle (IAM), Magnus Cort Nielsen (Orica), Sven Erik Bystrom and Alexiy Tsatevich (both Katusha) are all promising young stars who look like they might be especially suited to the cobbled classics. They'll all be looking to work for their leaders in this race, so look for them to be doing helper work rather than animating the race, Though I did see an interview where Tiesj Benoot said he would probably attack, possibly to be of use to a move from Roelandts later.
Sep Vanmarcke is the last of the big favourites who has remained on his bike, and deserves the favourite tag for this race. He has been impressive so far without winning, but he has had legitimate excuses, being caught behind crashes, punctures and mechanical issues. Nonetheless, he has looked the strongest at a number of races, In the Omloop he single-handedly nearly dragged back a minutes advantage on the winning group after he suffered two punctures which caused him to miss the move. In E3 he destroyed his pedal during an attack, and couldn't clip back in, so he could only push for the last 30 kms of the race. So he's suffered his share of bad fortune, but it would still be nice to see him take a victory, particularly without Cancellara and Boonen around. Whilst strong, he's going to be disadvantaged by his lack of team support, I can't really see any of them making it to the finale with him and being able to assist in the chasing.
Geraint Thomas is the other rider who many have flagged as the rider to watch in this edition, and it is hard to argue with that, as he is in scintillating form, winning Algarve, placing 4th in Paris-Nice, looking strong in Milan San-Remo, and just to prove he hasn't forgotten about the cobbles, winning E3, then backing up with a very strong third after being blown off his bike by a strong gust of wind., It is worth noting though, that whilst Thomas has been good at E3 in the past (3rd and 4th in the two previous editions) he hasn't been an animator in the Ronde. He also wouldn't have won E3 except due to the crash by Van Avermaet as the chase group behind was only 10 seconds away. His crash really took the momentum out of the chase, and Thomas was able to ride away from Stybar and Sagan. He could also face the same problem as Vanmarcke in that he won't have a strong team presence. Wiggins, Rowe and Stannard may be there, but given their recent form, I wouldn't be too confident of that happening.
Greg Van Avermaet is another obvious contender for the win. after he arguably should have won last year. He wasn't helped at all by Vandenbergh, when if he had been, they would have had enough of an advantage to keep Cancellara and Vanmarcke at bay. He also messed up the sprint, waiting for far too long, and allowing Cancellara to get the jump. This year he looks just as strong, but also has finally managed to win a race, beating out Sagan and Stybar on a cobbled uphill sprint in Tirreno-Adriactico. He took a spectacular tumble in E3, and will be riding with some back pain, but he says that he thinks he'll be fine. it might cost him a few percent however, which will be crucial in a race like this.
Alexander Kristoff is in great form at the moment, winning three stages and the GC in De Panne, just missing out in Milan San-Remo and taking a number of wins earlier in the season as well. Last year, he was in the second group one the road, and after realising that they wouldn't help him catch up to the group in front, attacked and almost made up the gap, eventually finishing just 8 seconds behind. He may suffer from the same problem again this year, as no one will want to go to the finish with him, but this time he'll have the reborn Luca Paolini there to work for him, as well as John Degenkolb, who could be an ally, given that both will want a sprint finish.
Speaking of, John Degenkolb will be trying to add a second Monument for the season to his mantelpiece. He has the ability to tackle the cobbles, though he prefers the pave of Roubaix to the hellingen of Flanders. He will have the problem of lack of team support that many of the other favourites will also face, also he may find it tough to follow the best riders on the climbs. Nonetheless, he proved in San-Remo that he is one of the fastest at the end of these tough races, so if he can get to the finale he will be hard to beat.
Zdenek Stybar looks to be in the middle of his breakout season, taking a memorable win in Strade Bianche and then finishing 2nd to Thomas in E3. He's always had the bike handling skills to do well on the cobbles, but now he has the power as well. He and Terpstra will share the team captaincy, and I think it likely that we'll see one go quite early, whilst the other marks moves. Stybar will probably be the one to mark the moves, whilst Terpstra will probably attack from further, as Stybar has the more impressive sprint. Terpstra has also been in very good form this season, taking the GC in the Tour of Qatar for the second year in a row, before finishing 2nd in Omloop and then 2nd in Gent-Wevelgem. His performance in this race last year was the strongest of the entire team, trying to bridge to the first group from the second, but like Kristoff, falling short.
Peter Sagan is a rider that you always have to mention, but I quite frankly can't come up with a scenario which he looks like winning. He is significantly weaker than previous years, as well as slower in the sprint. There are faster riders in the event that it comes down to a bunch sprint, and no one will want to work with him in a small group, because he will still be faster than them. He additionally doesn't have the strength to split the race apart by himself. Additionally he has little team support as well as the additional distraction of team upheaval in the management.
Jurgen Roelandts and Daniel Oss, though they aren't on the same team, I've decided to group them together as I think they have roughly the same chance of winning and if they do, it will be in a similar way. Both are very strong over the cobbles, but they aren't recognised as the top favourites. They don't attract an immediate response when they attack from the peleton, and so could well get a gap, and then have some freedom up the road. Both were top 10 in E3 and Gent-Wevelgem, and Roelandts in particular showed just how he might win the Ronde, with a superb 60 km solo attack. He obviously needed more help, and for the attack to be a bit shorter. The Koppenberg with 45 kms to go looks an ideal launching pad for this sort of second-tier rider attack, and if they can get a decent gap, then it could well be the last time the peleton sees them. I'd also put Lars Boom, Jean-Pierre Drucker, Sylvain Chavanel, Bjorn Leukemans, Ian Stannard and Heinrich Haussler in this group as well, though none of them has the same form as Oss or Roelandts.
Not strictly contenders, but I'll be interested to see some of the young riders and how they fare, particularly if they look like they might be future contenders. Jasper Stuyven (Trek), Sean De Bie and Tiesj Benoot (both Lotto-Soudal), Matthias Brandle (IAM), Magnus Cort Nielsen (Orica), Sven Erik Bystrom and Alexiy Tsatevich (both Katusha) are all promising young stars who look like they might be especially suited to the cobbled classics. They'll all be looking to work for their leaders in this race, so look for them to be doing helper work rather than animating the race, Though I did see an interview where Tiesj Benoot said he would probably attack, possibly to be of use to a move from Roelandts later.
The Verdict
There's been a lot of speculation leading into what should be a wide open affair, and as my contenders list showed, there really are a lot of big names in the mix. In the end however, I think it will be someone that attacks from far out that wins this one. The peleton is both going to be constrained and driven by the presence of Kristoff and Degenkolb. we should see the pace being driven quite hard over the climbs from quite a long way out. That will have the effect of tiring those sprinters but also of dropping a lot of the domestiques whose job it is to make sure the race comes back together. to my way of thinking this will advantage the attackers who go from a long way out, as whilst the peleton will be keen to drive it hard up the climbs, they won't be as keen to set the same pace on the flat where less difference can be made. Also, the presence of sprinters in the finale will restrain a chase group in the finale, as they won't want to do work in the knowledge that they are simply dragging someone else to victory. I also think that the sprinters teams aren't strong enough to do that work by themselves so we'll be looking at a long range move to win it.
This makes Jurgen Roelandts my pick to win, he has the engine and the aggressive tendencies which makes this race scenario perfect for him. His team has played around with these sorts of aggressive tactics recently in De Panne as well getting three riders into the eventual winning break. I also think Niki Terpstra is a very strong chance if the race comes down to a battle of the big favourites the final time up the Kwaremont-Peterberg, but I'll stake my reputation on a long-range attack taking it.
There's been a lot of speculation leading into what should be a wide open affair, and as my contenders list showed, there really are a lot of big names in the mix. In the end however, I think it will be someone that attacks from far out that wins this one. The peleton is both going to be constrained and driven by the presence of Kristoff and Degenkolb. we should see the pace being driven quite hard over the climbs from quite a long way out. That will have the effect of tiring those sprinters but also of dropping a lot of the domestiques whose job it is to make sure the race comes back together. to my way of thinking this will advantage the attackers who go from a long way out, as whilst the peleton will be keen to drive it hard up the climbs, they won't be as keen to set the same pace on the flat where less difference can be made. Also, the presence of sprinters in the finale will restrain a chase group in the finale, as they won't want to do work in the knowledge that they are simply dragging someone else to victory. I also think that the sprinters teams aren't strong enough to do that work by themselves so we'll be looking at a long range move to win it.
This makes Jurgen Roelandts my pick to win, he has the engine and the aggressive tendencies which makes this race scenario perfect for him. His team has played around with these sorts of aggressive tactics recently in De Panne as well getting three riders into the eventual winning break. I also think Niki Terpstra is a very strong chance if the race comes down to a battle of the big favourites the final time up the Kwaremont-Peterberg, but I'll stake my reputation on a long-range attack taking it.