Over 250 kms of pain, dust and shuddering are in store for the riders in the Queen of the Classics. It is a very specialised type of racing where the contenders aren't necessarily the ones we've seen even on the Flandrian, and they won't have many races that they can win after. In that respect Roubaix really acts as the grand final for all those who have ambitions to do well in the cobbled races. Luck plays a big factor in determining the winner, in past years inattentive fans (Vandenbergh and Stybar in 2013), hitting a pothole (Van Avermaet in 2014), getting caught behind a crash (too many to name) and punctures (far too many to name) have spelled the end to the hopes of many potential winners.
The Course
As you can see, the course is essentially flat, that is if you don't count the unevenness of the cobbles, and I'm sure plenty of riders will attest to the fact that they are going up and down all day. The organisers have been out in the lead-up, apprising the nature of the cobbles, and grading them on their difficulty in star levels (5 hardest to 1 easiest). Though the 5 star (and often decisive) Carrefour de L'Arbre was made significantly easier last year by the fact that the riders could ride on a dirt path beside the pave. This was because the race organisers reacted to 2013 edition where spectators had caused crashes on this sector as they got too close to the riders, and they restricted access to it as a result. Maybe this year they will get the right mix, possibly by doing a similar arrangement to Trouee d'Arenberg, with the crowd behind barriers on one side and ploughing the dirt on the other, so it cant be used as a way round the cobbles.
The weather should play an interesting role in this race, with 25 km/h winds from the southwest providing a tailwind/cross-tailwind for most of the days racing, except for one major section of the race, from 70 kms to go, to 48 kms to go, where the wind will become a crosswind, and it could force a major selection at this point. (Look at the list below, this part of the race is from the end of the Tilloy - Sars-et-Rosieres pave [sector 14] to the end of the Mons en Pevele [sector 10]) This part also includes two 3-star, two 4-star and a 5-star sector, so it was going to be hard even before the introduction of the wind.
From there, the riders will have a tailwind or cross-tailwind into the finish and the cobbles won't be too hard until the race reaches the Camphin en Pevele sector, a 4-star sector that leads straight into the 5-star Carrefour d'Arbre, although as noted above, that might be more akin to a 1 star dirt path. At this point, the final selection has normally been made, and the riders that contest the win come from this group. However, this wasn't the case last year, as the first group refused to cooperate (probably due to the presence of Peter Sagan and second-place getter John Degenkolb), and let eventual winner Niki Terpstra get back on, plus Sky pair Wiggins and Thomas as well as Langeveld and De Backer. The rest of the terrain is easy from here on in, and the breaks made are due to tactical moves and having stronger legs rather than the course. The race finishes with one and a half laps of the Roubaix velodrome, and though it is a shallower velodrome than most, it will still provide a challenge for those that don't have much experience with the tactics of track sprinting.
Cobbled Sectors
27. Troisvilles (km 98.5 - 2200 m) +++
26. Viesly (km 105 - 1800 m) +++
25. Quievy (km 108 - 3700 m) ++++
24. Saint-Python (km 112.5 - 1500 m) ++
23. Vertain (km 120.5 - 2300 m) +++
22. Verchain-Maugré (km 130 - 1600 m) +++
21. Quérénaing - Maing (km 133.5 - 2500 m) +++
20. Monchaux-sur-Ecaillon (km 136.5 - 1600 m) +++
19. Haveluy (km 149.5 - 2500 m) ++++
18. Trouée d'Arenberg (km 158 - 2400 m) +++++
17. Wallers - Hélesmes, dit « Pont Gibus » (km 164 - 1600 m) +++
16. Hornaing (km 170.5 - 3700 m) ++++
15. Warlaing - Brillon (km 178 - 2400 m) +++
14. Tilloy - Sars-et-Rosières (km 181.5 - 2400 m) ++++
13. Beuvry-la-Forêt - Orchies (km 188 - 1400m) +++
12. Orchies (km 193 - 1700 m) +++
11. Auchy-lez-Orchies - Bersée (km 199 - 2700 m) ++++
10. Mons-en-Pévèle (km 204.5 - 3000 m) +++++
9. Mérignies - Avelin (km 210.5 - 700 m) ++
8. Pont-Thibaut (km 214 - 1400 m) +++
7. Templeuve - Moulin de Vertain (km 220 - 500 m) ++
6. Cysoing - Bourghelles (km 226.5 - 1300 m) +++
Bourghelles - Wannehain (km 229 - 1100 m) +++
5. Camphin-en-Pévèle (km 233.5 - 1800 m) ++++
4. Le Carrefour de l'Arbre (km 236.5 - 2100 m) +++++
3. Gruson (km 238.5 - 1100 m) ++
2. Hem (km 245.5 - 1400 m) ++
1. Roubaix (km 252 - 300 m) +
As you can see, the course is essentially flat, that is if you don't count the unevenness of the cobbles, and I'm sure plenty of riders will attest to the fact that they are going up and down all day. The organisers have been out in the lead-up, apprising the nature of the cobbles, and grading them on their difficulty in star levels (5 hardest to 1 easiest). Though the 5 star (and often decisive) Carrefour de L'Arbre was made significantly easier last year by the fact that the riders could ride on a dirt path beside the pave. This was because the race organisers reacted to 2013 edition where spectators had caused crashes on this sector as they got too close to the riders, and they restricted access to it as a result. Maybe this year they will get the right mix, possibly by doing a similar arrangement to Trouee d'Arenberg, with the crowd behind barriers on one side and ploughing the dirt on the other, so it cant be used as a way round the cobbles.
The weather should play an interesting role in this race, with 25 km/h winds from the southwest providing a tailwind/cross-tailwind for most of the days racing, except for one major section of the race, from 70 kms to go, to 48 kms to go, where the wind will become a crosswind, and it could force a major selection at this point. (Look at the list below, this part of the race is from the end of the Tilloy - Sars-et-Rosieres pave [sector 14] to the end of the Mons en Pevele [sector 10]) This part also includes two 3-star, two 4-star and a 5-star sector, so it was going to be hard even before the introduction of the wind.
From there, the riders will have a tailwind or cross-tailwind into the finish and the cobbles won't be too hard until the race reaches the Camphin en Pevele sector, a 4-star sector that leads straight into the 5-star Carrefour d'Arbre, although as noted above, that might be more akin to a 1 star dirt path. At this point, the final selection has normally been made, and the riders that contest the win come from this group. However, this wasn't the case last year, as the first group refused to cooperate (probably due to the presence of Peter Sagan and second-place getter John Degenkolb), and let eventual winner Niki Terpstra get back on, plus Sky pair Wiggins and Thomas as well as Langeveld and De Backer. The rest of the terrain is easy from here on in, and the breaks made are due to tactical moves and having stronger legs rather than the course. The race finishes with one and a half laps of the Roubaix velodrome, and though it is a shallower velodrome than most, it will still provide a challenge for those that don't have much experience with the tactics of track sprinting.
Cobbled Sectors
27. Troisvilles (km 98.5 - 2200 m) +++
26. Viesly (km 105 - 1800 m) +++
25. Quievy (km 108 - 3700 m) ++++
24. Saint-Python (km 112.5 - 1500 m) ++
23. Vertain (km 120.5 - 2300 m) +++
22. Verchain-Maugré (km 130 - 1600 m) +++
21. Quérénaing - Maing (km 133.5 - 2500 m) +++
20. Monchaux-sur-Ecaillon (km 136.5 - 1600 m) +++
19. Haveluy (km 149.5 - 2500 m) ++++
18. Trouée d'Arenberg (km 158 - 2400 m) +++++
17. Wallers - Hélesmes, dit « Pont Gibus » (km 164 - 1600 m) +++
16. Hornaing (km 170.5 - 3700 m) ++++
15. Warlaing - Brillon (km 178 - 2400 m) +++
14. Tilloy - Sars-et-Rosières (km 181.5 - 2400 m) ++++
13. Beuvry-la-Forêt - Orchies (km 188 - 1400m) +++
12. Orchies (km 193 - 1700 m) +++
11. Auchy-lez-Orchies - Bersée (km 199 - 2700 m) ++++
10. Mons-en-Pévèle (km 204.5 - 3000 m) +++++
9. Mérignies - Avelin (km 210.5 - 700 m) ++
8. Pont-Thibaut (km 214 - 1400 m) +++
7. Templeuve - Moulin de Vertain (km 220 - 500 m) ++
6. Cysoing - Bourghelles (km 226.5 - 1300 m) +++
Bourghelles - Wannehain (km 229 - 1100 m) +++
5. Camphin-en-Pévèle (km 233.5 - 1800 m) ++++
4. Le Carrefour de l'Arbre (km 236.5 - 2100 m) +++++
3. Gruson (km 238.5 - 1100 m) ++
2. Hem (km 245.5 - 1400 m) ++
1. Roubaix (km 252 - 300 m) +
The Tactics
In a race like Roubaix, where crashes, punctures and general luck play such a big factor, it's a mess trying to predict how the race will go. Normally, the early break goes and riders gradually fall off the back of it and off the back of the peleton until about 100 kms to go. Then the first big selection is made in the Trouee d'Arenberg, the riders slow down immeditately after to assess the race situation and a few attacks from second and third tier riders are made. In this edition it will be a very slow regrouping after the Arenberg, with riders turning directly into a headwind, which will allow a lot of riders to get back on. Headwinds normally discourage attacks, so I think the second-tier riders will keep their powder dry for 70-48 kms to go section where I think the most important break of the day will go. This is the crosswind section mentioned above, and it has the potential to be decisive. It will be too far out for the contenders to risk going and wasting their energy, but it will be the perfect opportunity to get riders up the road, with the ambition of winning the race, or being there to help their leader if it comes back together. The attacking from the big riders comes from as early as 60 kms to go, but none of these riders have proved themselves the equal of Cancellara or Boonen in their pomp, and I think it more likely that there will be a gradual attrition rather than many all-out attacks, at least until the riders reach the Champin en Pevele, which leads straight into the Carrefour de l'Arbre, which has decided a lot of Paris-Roubaix races in the past.
The strongest teams generally have the biggest say in how the race is run, and the strongest team is Etixx-Quickstep. Even without Boonen, they have last year's winner Terpstra, perennial contender Stybar and the unlucky Vandenbergh. Add into that a host of guys who would be leaders on most other squads but have to play domestique for EQS. EQS do not have a big sprinter to win the race reliably from a sprint, so they'll have to make the race selective, and have a rider either going solo or in a small group. I think they'll adopt similar tactics to what they did in Ronde Van Vlaanderen, attacking with moves from their second-tier riders, trying to isolate the leaders of other teams and tucking away Terpstra and Stybar for the finale at the Carrefour d'Arbre. Their ideal scenario will be Terpstra and Stybar in a 5-man group, after the other teams have worn themselves out chasing down the likes of Vandenbergh and Trentin.
None of the other teams of the contenders really have much strength in depth, Sky have two contenders, but apart from that, not a great deal of experience or strength. Lotto NL-Jumbo could be quite a presence up front, with the Maartens (Tjallingi and Wynants) always strong in Roubaix,
BMC also have a few guys who might be part of proceedings, but I see their main hopes of being part of the race in anticipating the moves of the main men. Katusha and Giant-Alpecin will try to keep things together for as long as possible, as they really have to go all-in with Kristoff and Degenkolb respectively, but again, they don't have impressive line-ups.
The problem with this general lack of strength across the teams of the favourites is that they will likely have a lot of trouble pulling back the attacks of those that go away in the mid part of the race. What advantages these attackers in my opinion is that after the hard section (70 kms to 48 kms to go) where they can make their attacks and build the gap, they will then have an easy section for maintaining that gap (48 kms to 20 kms to go), they will have a tailwind and comparatively easy cobbles sectors to negotiate. All this together means we will have a race that favours the teams that have the guts to attack from afar, and it could make for one of the more exciting races in Roubaix history.
In a race like Roubaix, where crashes, punctures and general luck play such a big factor, it's a mess trying to predict how the race will go. Normally, the early break goes and riders gradually fall off the back of it and off the back of the peleton until about 100 kms to go. Then the first big selection is made in the Trouee d'Arenberg, the riders slow down immeditately after to assess the race situation and a few attacks from second and third tier riders are made. In this edition it will be a very slow regrouping after the Arenberg, with riders turning directly into a headwind, which will allow a lot of riders to get back on. Headwinds normally discourage attacks, so I think the second-tier riders will keep their powder dry for 70-48 kms to go section where I think the most important break of the day will go. This is the crosswind section mentioned above, and it has the potential to be decisive. It will be too far out for the contenders to risk going and wasting their energy, but it will be the perfect opportunity to get riders up the road, with the ambition of winning the race, or being there to help their leader if it comes back together. The attacking from the big riders comes from as early as 60 kms to go, but none of these riders have proved themselves the equal of Cancellara or Boonen in their pomp, and I think it more likely that there will be a gradual attrition rather than many all-out attacks, at least until the riders reach the Champin en Pevele, which leads straight into the Carrefour de l'Arbre, which has decided a lot of Paris-Roubaix races in the past.
The strongest teams generally have the biggest say in how the race is run, and the strongest team is Etixx-Quickstep. Even without Boonen, they have last year's winner Terpstra, perennial contender Stybar and the unlucky Vandenbergh. Add into that a host of guys who would be leaders on most other squads but have to play domestique for EQS. EQS do not have a big sprinter to win the race reliably from a sprint, so they'll have to make the race selective, and have a rider either going solo or in a small group. I think they'll adopt similar tactics to what they did in Ronde Van Vlaanderen, attacking with moves from their second-tier riders, trying to isolate the leaders of other teams and tucking away Terpstra and Stybar for the finale at the Carrefour d'Arbre. Their ideal scenario will be Terpstra and Stybar in a 5-man group, after the other teams have worn themselves out chasing down the likes of Vandenbergh and Trentin.
None of the other teams of the contenders really have much strength in depth, Sky have two contenders, but apart from that, not a great deal of experience or strength. Lotto NL-Jumbo could be quite a presence up front, with the Maartens (Tjallingi and Wynants) always strong in Roubaix,
BMC also have a few guys who might be part of proceedings, but I see their main hopes of being part of the race in anticipating the moves of the main men. Katusha and Giant-Alpecin will try to keep things together for as long as possible, as they really have to go all-in with Kristoff and Degenkolb respectively, but again, they don't have impressive line-ups.
The problem with this general lack of strength across the teams of the favourites is that they will likely have a lot of trouble pulling back the attacks of those that go away in the mid part of the race. What advantages these attackers in my opinion is that after the hard section (70 kms to 48 kms to go) where they can make their attacks and build the gap, they will then have an easy section for maintaining that gap (48 kms to 20 kms to go), they will have a tailwind and comparatively easy cobbles sectors to negotiate. All this together means we will have a race that favours the teams that have the guts to attack from afar, and it could make for one of the more exciting races in Roubaix history.
The Contenders
I'm going to break this contenders section up into finale riders (those that will wait until the final 20 kms to make their move and the attackers, who will go from a lot further out.
Finale Riders:
Alexander Kristoff is in top form at the moment, taking 6 wins in nine days with his victory in Scheldeprijs. Form-wise however, the more significant wins were his imperious performance in Ronde Van Vlaanderen (RVV) and the hard stage of Drieesdage de Panne, where he was the strongest over the cobbles and in the sprint. He excels at the end of long, tough races, and these skills have won him a lot of races and fans in recent years. Interestingly, he hasn't gone that great at Roubaix, his best being a creditable 9th, but his next best is 57th, and last year he crashed out. He has also downplayed his chances, saying that he feels more at home on the hellingen of Flanders, but with his muscle and weight, you would think that he'd be right at home on the French pave. He will be the most marked man of the peleton, and no one, perhaps with the exception of Degenkolb will want to go to the finish with him. He will also be isolated in the finale, but that didn't stop him in Flanders.
I'm going to break this contenders section up into finale riders (those that will wait until the final 20 kms to make their move and the attackers, who will go from a lot further out.
Finale Riders:
Alexander Kristoff is in top form at the moment, taking 6 wins in nine days with his victory in Scheldeprijs. Form-wise however, the more significant wins were his imperious performance in Ronde Van Vlaanderen (RVV) and the hard stage of Drieesdage de Panne, where he was the strongest over the cobbles and in the sprint. He excels at the end of long, tough races, and these skills have won him a lot of races and fans in recent years. Interestingly, he hasn't gone that great at Roubaix, his best being a creditable 9th, but his next best is 57th, and last year he crashed out. He has also downplayed his chances, saying that he feels more at home on the hellingen of Flanders, but with his muscle and weight, you would think that he'd be right at home on the French pave. He will be the most marked man of the peleton, and no one, perhaps with the exception of Degenkolb will want to go to the finish with him. He will also be isolated in the finale, but that didn't stop him in Flanders.
John Degenkolb is the only rider that might be able to beat Kristoff in a sprint at the end of Paris-Roubaix, He has already done so of course in Milan San-Remo, to take the biggest win of his career to date, and he performed well in RVV, finishing 7th from the 'bunch' sprint and he was of course 2nd last year after sticking with Vanmarcke and Cancellara over the cobbles. All of Kristoff's obstacles to winning are repeated here with Degenkolb, and they may in fact form a partnership to work together and try to fight out the win in the velodrome, which would be very exciting!
Zdenek Stybar and Niki Terpstra could well be the one-two punch that wins Paris-Roubaix in the same fashion as last season, with one rider going up the road at a critical, and the other sitting one sitting on wheels and marking moves. Terpstra seems to be the one designated to make these moves, as he did at RVV this year and Paris-Roubaix last year. Both are in good form, Terpstra has been solid throughout the cobbles season, whilst Stybar has shown up in selected races in the front group, and won Strade Bianche, which whilst not cobbled is also over hard terrain.
Sep Vanmarcke has been the main protagonist in recent editions of Paris-Roubaix, looking the strongest over the cobbles, but just being unable to shake the faster sprinters when he needed to in order to win. He is coming off a poor RVV, where he surprisingly missed the selection on the Taienberg, before trying to power over the big gap, initially being assisted by Maarten Wynants before going in alone and just hitting the wall with about 30 m gap left to go. Not that he would have necessarily have stayed in that group after such an effort, but he would have had at least a little chance for recuperation. He is better suited to the pave however, and Roubaix is normally his best race of the season, so it would be folly to discount him after one off day.
Greg Van Avermaet was one of the strongest riders in RVV, and indeed he has been across the season to date. Strong performances in Tirreno and Strade Bianche particularly caught the eye, as well as his highlights reel crash over the handlebars in E3. He isn't as suited to the pave of France, but he is one of the toughest riders around, and he has finished 4th in the past. Last year he crashed (again spectacularly) on a key corner and created the final selection, so he's in always in the race in some way. Not afraid to go from afar, those instincts could serve him well here.
Bradley Wiggins and Geraint Thomas are here as well, if you hadn't heard, with Wiggins trying for a fairytale finish to his career. And whilst Thomas has been in very good form, Wiggins hasn't, not looking interested in trying to get into the first group at critical stages of races, and only having the one win to his name, a TT win against a mediocre De Panne field. Thomas on the other hand has a win in E3, and strong performances in Gent-Wevelgem and RVV, not to mention his superb climbing in Algarve and Paris-Nice. They are both slow at the finish however, and will have to rely on winning solo. In last year's edition they also appeared uncertain what to do once they did get up the front, and they'll have to work on their tactics to win this race against some more experienced riders.
Lars Boom has always favoured pave over hellingen, but he proved adept at RVV with a good 6th place, though he might be a little upset at being outsprinted by neo-pro Tiesj Benoot. In last years pave stage on the Tour de France he was clearly the strongest, making the selections before riding away from the Astana squad to take the solo win. These days he rides for that Astana squad, but he won't be in the same position as that race, out with non-cobbles specialists at the front. His history in the race is good, although he has never been in the front group when the final selection is made, and may need to anticipate the moves of others rather than follow them.
Peter Sagan is an enigma, at some stages he is strong, then he fades dramatically, some times he doesn't show up at all, and then he surprises by motoring up the Paterberg to join Van Avermaet in the big move to chase down the front two. He clearly has all the attributes to win these sort of races, great bike-handling skills, a fast sprint, an attacking mindset, but he rarely puts it all together these days, and in recent races he has developed the alarming habit of fading in the final kilometres of the race. He will need a big form reversal here to win.
Zdenek Stybar and Niki Terpstra could well be the one-two punch that wins Paris-Roubaix in the same fashion as last season, with one rider going up the road at a critical, and the other sitting one sitting on wheels and marking moves. Terpstra seems to be the one designated to make these moves, as he did at RVV this year and Paris-Roubaix last year. Both are in good form, Terpstra has been solid throughout the cobbles season, whilst Stybar has shown up in selected races in the front group, and won Strade Bianche, which whilst not cobbled is also over hard terrain.
Sep Vanmarcke has been the main protagonist in recent editions of Paris-Roubaix, looking the strongest over the cobbles, but just being unable to shake the faster sprinters when he needed to in order to win. He is coming off a poor RVV, where he surprisingly missed the selection on the Taienberg, before trying to power over the big gap, initially being assisted by Maarten Wynants before going in alone and just hitting the wall with about 30 m gap left to go. Not that he would have necessarily have stayed in that group after such an effort, but he would have had at least a little chance for recuperation. He is better suited to the pave however, and Roubaix is normally his best race of the season, so it would be folly to discount him after one off day.
Greg Van Avermaet was one of the strongest riders in RVV, and indeed he has been across the season to date. Strong performances in Tirreno and Strade Bianche particularly caught the eye, as well as his highlights reel crash over the handlebars in E3. He isn't as suited to the pave of France, but he is one of the toughest riders around, and he has finished 4th in the past. Last year he crashed (again spectacularly) on a key corner and created the final selection, so he's in always in the race in some way. Not afraid to go from afar, those instincts could serve him well here.
Bradley Wiggins and Geraint Thomas are here as well, if you hadn't heard, with Wiggins trying for a fairytale finish to his career. And whilst Thomas has been in very good form, Wiggins hasn't, not looking interested in trying to get into the first group at critical stages of races, and only having the one win to his name, a TT win against a mediocre De Panne field. Thomas on the other hand has a win in E3, and strong performances in Gent-Wevelgem and RVV, not to mention his superb climbing in Algarve and Paris-Nice. They are both slow at the finish however, and will have to rely on winning solo. In last year's edition they also appeared uncertain what to do once they did get up the front, and they'll have to work on their tactics to win this race against some more experienced riders.
Lars Boom has always favoured pave over hellingen, but he proved adept at RVV with a good 6th place, though he might be a little upset at being outsprinted by neo-pro Tiesj Benoot. In last years pave stage on the Tour de France he was clearly the strongest, making the selections before riding away from the Astana squad to take the solo win. These days he rides for that Astana squad, but he won't be in the same position as that race, out with non-cobbles specialists at the front. His history in the race is good, although he has never been in the front group when the final selection is made, and may need to anticipate the moves of others rather than follow them.
Peter Sagan is an enigma, at some stages he is strong, then he fades dramatically, some times he doesn't show up at all, and then he surprises by motoring up the Paterberg to join Van Avermaet in the big move to chase down the front two. He clearly has all the attributes to win these sort of races, great bike-handling skills, a fast sprint, an attacking mindset, but he rarely puts it all together these days, and in recent races he has developed the alarming habit of fading in the final kilometres of the race. He will need a big form reversal here to win.