Stage 1 is all about the sprinters, and it is as flat as a pancake, or rather, a crepe. First stage to establish a pecking order, with Kristoff and Greipel coming from different formlines. Enjoy the scenery on the coverage, because there probably won't be much action until the last 20 kms.
The Course
Very flat, and with only a light cross-tailwind blowing, and benign weather, the only outcome today will be a sprint. The only climb (1.2 kms, 5%) of the day comes 1.8 kms into the stage, and will probably be hotly contested, as the first over the top will wear the mountains jersey for at least one day, maybe even two, as there is also only one categorised climb tomorrow. The sprint points are interestingly positioned, with the first coming only 19 kms in and the second with only 10 kms to go. The finish is non-technical and wide, so all will have their chance, though obviously the fastest men will hold the advantage.
The Tactics
There may be the potential for a strong break to go in the opening kilometres, as there is the only climb of the day almost immediately (1.2 kms, 5%) but if it is anything that EQS and the sprinters' teams don't like then the have a lot of power on call to reel them back in. One tactic that Rohan Dennis and BMC might play if they are feeling sneaky, is trying to put him into any move that goes away early, to get him some bonus seconds at the sprint point, which is only 19 kms in. A second would be enough to put him in yellow. The second sprint point will also be interesting, If the breakaway hasn't been caught yet. I can't imagine that it will hold any interest for the sprinters, who will want to save as much energy as possible for the final sprint, which is only 10 kms off. The points are insignificant in the points jersey battle, and the seconds would only really benefit John Degenkolb and Michael Matthews, who again, would need to also win the stage to take the lead on bonuses. This leads me to believe that the sprint will be contested only by the GC candidates to try and take even the slightest advantage on their rivals. If this happens it will be advantage Kwiatkowski as he possesses the best sprint of the main GC guys, and will be a good chance for him to extend his lead.
Very flat, and with only a light cross-tailwind blowing, and benign weather, the only outcome today will be a sprint. The only climb (1.2 kms, 5%) of the day comes 1.8 kms into the stage, and will probably be hotly contested, as the first over the top will wear the mountains jersey for at least one day, maybe even two, as there is also only one categorised climb tomorrow. The sprint points are interestingly positioned, with the first coming only 19 kms in and the second with only 10 kms to go. The finish is non-technical and wide, so all will have their chance, though obviously the fastest men will hold the advantage.
The Tactics
There may be the potential for a strong break to go in the opening kilometres, as there is the only climb of the day almost immediately (1.2 kms, 5%) but if it is anything that EQS and the sprinters' teams don't like then the have a lot of power on call to reel them back in. One tactic that Rohan Dennis and BMC might play if they are feeling sneaky, is trying to put him into any move that goes away early, to get him some bonus seconds at the sprint point, which is only 19 kms in. A second would be enough to put him in yellow. The second sprint point will also be interesting, If the breakaway hasn't been caught yet. I can't imagine that it will hold any interest for the sprinters, who will want to save as much energy as possible for the final sprint, which is only 10 kms off. The points are insignificant in the points jersey battle, and the seconds would only really benefit John Degenkolb and Michael Matthews, who again, would need to also win the stage to take the lead on bonuses. This leads me to believe that the sprint will be contested only by the GC candidates to try and take even the slightest advantage on their rivals. If this happens it will be advantage Kwiatkowski as he possesses the best sprint of the main GC guys, and will be a good chance for him to extend his lead.
History
This stage should be good one to take in the city of Orleans during the mid stage of the race, it is a pretty city, with some interesting architecture, perfect for lingering helicopter shots. Seeing this city nearby on the race route, brought to mind one prominent historical figure.
The Maid of Orleans, better known to us as Joan of Arc, or more correctly as Jeanne D'Arc, broke the English siege of the city in 1429, turning the tide of the Hundred Year's War. The British had claimed the crown and a third of France, and together with their Burgundian allies were winning the war against the dispirited French. Enter Joan, a peasant who claimed to have been told by God to put Charles, the French heir to the crown, on the throne. Obviously she was greeted with some scepticism, but after being examined by for some weeks by clerics and the French Parliament, was given command of an army to break the siege of Orleans. Notably a failed attempt had already been mounted and routed, so it was no mean feat when Joan led the attack and forced the English to retreat. She took a wound in the third day of fighting, but returned to the battle mere hours later destroy the final English fortification. She went on to vanquish the English from the Loire, and escorting Charles VII to his coronation as the King of France.
Of course the story ends with her capture by Burgundian forces, being put on trial, recanting her heresy and then being burnt at the stake anyway, but she lives on as figure of French heroism, and as one of France's patron saints. Also she astride her horse in statue form, and watches the final stage of the Tour De France pass each year. Watch the last 2kms of the last stage and you'll see her in magnificent gold leaf.
This stage should be good one to take in the city of Orleans during the mid stage of the race, it is a pretty city, with some interesting architecture, perfect for lingering helicopter shots. Seeing this city nearby on the race route, brought to mind one prominent historical figure.
The Maid of Orleans, better known to us as Joan of Arc, or more correctly as Jeanne D'Arc, broke the English siege of the city in 1429, turning the tide of the Hundred Year's War. The British had claimed the crown and a third of France, and together with their Burgundian allies were winning the war against the dispirited French. Enter Joan, a peasant who claimed to have been told by God to put Charles, the French heir to the crown, on the throne. Obviously she was greeted with some scepticism, but after being examined by for some weeks by clerics and the French Parliament, was given command of an army to break the siege of Orleans. Notably a failed attempt had already been mounted and routed, so it was no mean feat when Joan led the attack and forced the English to retreat. She took a wound in the third day of fighting, but returned to the battle mere hours later destroy the final English fortification. She went on to vanquish the English from the Loire, and escorting Charles VII to his coronation as the King of France.
Of course the story ends with her capture by Burgundian forces, being put on trial, recanting her heresy and then being burnt at the stake anyway, but she lives on as figure of French heroism, and as one of France's patron saints. Also she astride her horse in statue form, and watches the final stage of the Tour De France pass each year. Watch the last 2kms of the last stage and you'll see her in magnificent gold leaf.
The Contenders
Alexander Kristoff is ready to continue on with his impressive form, but he'll need to be sharp. A whole host of sprinters meet him here, a few with better leadouts than the Russian has at his disposal. Guarnieri is the only real leadout guy on the roster, so Kristoff will have to pick his wheels carefully in the final kilometres.
Andre Greipel is in town, but is recovering from a throat infection, and his form is against lesser sprinters in Algarve. Then again Tom Van Asbroeck, who finished 2nd to Greipel, went on to a fine 4th in Kuurne, so he was at least kept honest. He doesn't quite have his A-team leadout, but Hansen, Sieberg and Henderson are all part of his normal train, so he'll be right up the front when it matters.
Nacer Bouhanni will be one to watch in the final kilometres, he narrowly avoided a crash in Kuurne, but was going pretty fast before that, and could have challenged. His form before was nothing to write home about, but he's in France now and will be keen to show up his old team and Arnaud Demare.
Speaking of, the season just hasn't gone right for the FDJ man, who after a fast-finishing third in the first stage of Qatar has gone missing largely. Demare will enjoy the full backing, but he lacks the quality leadout others will enjoy.
John Degenkolb doesn't deserve to be this far down the list, but I'll make up for it later. Coming off two 2nd placing in Andalucía, and of course his incredible win up Hatta dam in Dubai, Degenkolb was in good form, and will surely only have gotten better with more racing under his belt, obviously he did a great prologue as well. He brings a good train to do a job for him here, Sinkeldam, de Kort and Curvers are some quality riders in a flat finish, as is Dumoulin depending on what his priorities are.
Out of the others, Michael Matthews is obviously going well off a strong prologue, but lacks the top end speed of others here. Bryan Coquard is making his way slowly up the sprinting ranks, but he'd prefer a stage with more climbing, and Ben Swift and Niccola Bonifazio are in the same boat. Hutarovich can go fast if he gets positioning right, Nizzolo has the same problem, but he is in bad form as well.
I'll be interested to see if Jonas Vangenechten gets a chance to sprint as well, he did very well in lesser races last season, but hasn't really got an opportunity as of yet. If he doesn't have to leadout Haussler or Chavanel, he could be a surprise addition to the top 5.
Alexander Kristoff is ready to continue on with his impressive form, but he'll need to be sharp. A whole host of sprinters meet him here, a few with better leadouts than the Russian has at his disposal. Guarnieri is the only real leadout guy on the roster, so Kristoff will have to pick his wheels carefully in the final kilometres.
Andre Greipel is in town, but is recovering from a throat infection, and his form is against lesser sprinters in Algarve. Then again Tom Van Asbroeck, who finished 2nd to Greipel, went on to a fine 4th in Kuurne, so he was at least kept honest. He doesn't quite have his A-team leadout, but Hansen, Sieberg and Henderson are all part of his normal train, so he'll be right up the front when it matters.
Nacer Bouhanni will be one to watch in the final kilometres, he narrowly avoided a crash in Kuurne, but was going pretty fast before that, and could have challenged. His form before was nothing to write home about, but he's in France now and will be keen to show up his old team and Arnaud Demare.
Speaking of, the season just hasn't gone right for the FDJ man, who after a fast-finishing third in the first stage of Qatar has gone missing largely. Demare will enjoy the full backing, but he lacks the quality leadout others will enjoy.
John Degenkolb doesn't deserve to be this far down the list, but I'll make up for it later. Coming off two 2nd placing in Andalucía, and of course his incredible win up Hatta dam in Dubai, Degenkolb was in good form, and will surely only have gotten better with more racing under his belt, obviously he did a great prologue as well. He brings a good train to do a job for him here, Sinkeldam, de Kort and Curvers are some quality riders in a flat finish, as is Dumoulin depending on what his priorities are.
Out of the others, Michael Matthews is obviously going well off a strong prologue, but lacks the top end speed of others here. Bryan Coquard is making his way slowly up the sprinting ranks, but he'd prefer a stage with more climbing, and Ben Swift and Niccola Bonifazio are in the same boat. Hutarovich can go fast if he gets positioning right, Nizzolo has the same problem, but he is in bad form as well.
I'll be interested to see if Jonas Vangenechten gets a chance to sprint as well, he did very well in lesser races last season, but hasn't really got an opportunity as of yet. If he doesn't have to leadout Haussler or Chavanel, he could be a surprise addition to the top 5.
The Verdict
With difficulties ahead for Kristoff and Greipel, I think John Degenkolb has the right mix of a good leadout, the form and the speed to win this one.
With difficulties ahead for Kristoff and Greipel, I think John Degenkolb has the right mix of a good leadout, the form and the speed to win this one.