It could be a reduced sprint, or one of the hardest stages in living memory, it will all come down to how it is raced. Hopefully it will hard from the starting gun, and we see the race explode later on, with attacks coming early and riders all over the road.
The Course
As you can see, the road will be going up and down all day, with 6 total categorised climbs. The Col de Vence (9.7 kms, 6.6%) comes first, and will be the toughest challenge of the day by the numbers, but its early position should make it a bit easier on the riders. A long descent follows, a entry into a succession of Category 2 climbs. The Cote de Levens (6.2 kms, 5.5%), the Cote de Chateauneuf (5.4 kms, 4.4%) and the Cote de Coarare (5.9 kms, 5.6%) are run within 40 kms. Rolling roads for only 5 kms precede the next big challenge, the Col Saint-Roch (9.6 kms, 4.5%) which isn't so much hard as it is long, but will mark the high altitude point of the day, at 1003 m above sea level, remarkable when you consider the riders finish a 4m above the sea. A long descent takes the peleton into the final climb of the day, the Cote de Peille (6.6 kms, 6.8%) which summits 27 kms from the finish. The descent is fairly technical, but not hugely difficult and lasts until 2 kms to go. The course has a final kink in the tail for the unwary, a 500m climb at 6% followed by a 500m descent, and the roads are flat from there with only one kilometre to go.
As you can see, the road will be going up and down all day, with 6 total categorised climbs. The Col de Vence (9.7 kms, 6.6%) comes first, and will be the toughest challenge of the day by the numbers, but its early position should make it a bit easier on the riders. A long descent follows, a entry into a succession of Category 2 climbs. The Cote de Levens (6.2 kms, 5.5%), the Cote de Chateauneuf (5.4 kms, 4.4%) and the Cote de Coarare (5.9 kms, 5.6%) are run within 40 kms. Rolling roads for only 5 kms precede the next big challenge, the Col Saint-Roch (9.6 kms, 4.5%) which isn't so much hard as it is long, but will mark the high altitude point of the day, at 1003 m above sea level, remarkable when you consider the riders finish a 4m above the sea. A long descent takes the peleton into the final climb of the day, the Cote de Peille (6.6 kms, 6.8%) which summits 27 kms from the finish. The descent is fairly technical, but not hugely difficult and lasts until 2 kms to go. The course has a final kink in the tail for the unwary, a 500m climb at 6% followed by a 500m descent, and the roads are flat from there with only one kilometre to go.
The Tactics
This stage could go so many different ways, but I think the main battle which shapes the race is Kwiatkowski vs Team Sky. The world champion unfortunately doesn't have the strongest team for this sort of stage, with only Tony Martin really much of a climber. The rest aren't bad climbers, but will struggle to be of much use once the pace is ramped up. Sky on the other hand are clearly one of the stronger squads, as they proved on Stage 4. They can easily choose to make the race really hard and eliminate most of Kwiatkowski's help early on. This puts a lot of pressure on Kwiatkowski, who then is forced to watch both Thomas and Porte by himself. This is obviously the ideal situation for Sky, but if they attack too early, they may create a situation where the race fragments, and the second-tier of favourites, quite a few of whom are within a minute of the lead, go on the attack, and then the onus is on Sky to chase. So Sky would ideally like to make the race hard, but not too hard, so that they can attack with their one-two GC punch over the final climb.
What will complicate matters is other teams with their own ambitions for the stage victory and the GC. Lots of teams have a few riders in the upper GC positions. Astana have 3 in the top 20, Lampre 2, Lotto-Soudal 2, Movistar 2, Katusha 2 and AG2R 2. All of those are within a minute and a half of the lead, very much the sort of gap that could be made by a decent sized attack from mid-way through the stage. Hopefully the teams are more adventurous than Stage 4, where the only attempt to escape was at the foot of the final climb, when the Sky train was going full gas. Being down on the GC does encourage a more maverick approach however, so we should see more aggressive tactics from the smaller players, Look for a move like this forming over the succession of Cat 2 climbs.
I think Sky will have to assume control of the race at some stage, either by going into a break, and forcing other teams to come to the fore, or by taking over from a weakening EQS squad to chase down the breakaway. They are in the driver's seat at the moment, even if they don't technically hold yellow, and will have to behave like the leaders at some point in the race.
The composition of the break could also be telling, a rider like Rein Taaramae up the road would be the perfect stepping stone for an attack today from Sanchez, Aru or Fuglsang, and lots of teams have riders who could do a similar job, so it will be interesting to see who tries to go, and who the peleton lets go. Of course the break itself has a good chance of winning, Sky know that if they bring Kwiatkowski to the finish, he could easily pick up bonus seconds with his superior sprint, and EQS might just decide to ride a steady pace and just make sure they keep their team intact.
This stage could go so many different ways, but I think the main battle which shapes the race is Kwiatkowski vs Team Sky. The world champion unfortunately doesn't have the strongest team for this sort of stage, with only Tony Martin really much of a climber. The rest aren't bad climbers, but will struggle to be of much use once the pace is ramped up. Sky on the other hand are clearly one of the stronger squads, as they proved on Stage 4. They can easily choose to make the race really hard and eliminate most of Kwiatkowski's help early on. This puts a lot of pressure on Kwiatkowski, who then is forced to watch both Thomas and Porte by himself. This is obviously the ideal situation for Sky, but if they attack too early, they may create a situation where the race fragments, and the second-tier of favourites, quite a few of whom are within a minute of the lead, go on the attack, and then the onus is on Sky to chase. So Sky would ideally like to make the race hard, but not too hard, so that they can attack with their one-two GC punch over the final climb.
What will complicate matters is other teams with their own ambitions for the stage victory and the GC. Lots of teams have a few riders in the upper GC positions. Astana have 3 in the top 20, Lampre 2, Lotto-Soudal 2, Movistar 2, Katusha 2 and AG2R 2. All of those are within a minute and a half of the lead, very much the sort of gap that could be made by a decent sized attack from mid-way through the stage. Hopefully the teams are more adventurous than Stage 4, where the only attempt to escape was at the foot of the final climb, when the Sky train was going full gas. Being down on the GC does encourage a more maverick approach however, so we should see more aggressive tactics from the smaller players, Look for a move like this forming over the succession of Cat 2 climbs.
I think Sky will have to assume control of the race at some stage, either by going into a break, and forcing other teams to come to the fore, or by taking over from a weakening EQS squad to chase down the breakaway. They are in the driver's seat at the moment, even if they don't technically hold yellow, and will have to behave like the leaders at some point in the race.
The composition of the break could also be telling, a rider like Rein Taaramae up the road would be the perfect stepping stone for an attack today from Sanchez, Aru or Fuglsang, and lots of teams have riders who could do a similar job, so it will be interesting to see who tries to go, and who the peleton lets go. Of course the break itself has a good chance of winning, Sky know that if they bring Kwiatkowski to the finish, he could easily pick up bonus seconds with his superior sprint, and EQS might just decide to ride a steady pace and just make sure they keep their team intact.
The Contenders
With a stage wide open like this one there are maybe 20-30 riders who I could make a case for winning and still not be done.
Michael Matthews is the only one of the sprinters who could realistically get over this amount of climbing, but I think this might be too much even for him. If he does make it to the end however he will be the fastest.
Michal Kwiatkowski would be the big favourite for this stage if he had a team strong enough to control the race for him. His sprint and classics riding skills will stand in good stead for the finale. His descending ability is probably one of the few advantages that he will possess over Sky, and he could try and make a move on the final descent into Nice, knowing that descending is one area where the brute strength of Sky is less likely to help.
Geraint Thomas is in great form at the moment, and this terrain suits him a lot better than Stage 4, and he finished second there. He could be the one to make the first move for Team Sky, as Porte will most likely be content to sit on wheels and not lose time, and then do a big TT tomorrow. His move could well be the big tactical move of the day, as it was on Stage 4, and he will definitely be one to keep a close eye on.
Tom Dumoulin is a hardy climber with an impressive sprint, and might be one of the few that could take Kwiatkowski in a sprint finish. Getting there will be the hard part for the Dutchman, who came into this race with an illness, but he appears to have shrugged it off, and is currently 15th on GC. He will have the same problem as the world champ however, he will be isolated, and everyone will know that he is a faster sprinter than they are.
Riccardo Zoidl is an obscure name in the sport, but the rising star of Austrian cycling (arguably the only star) has some serious climbing legs and guts to go with them. In Stage 4, he was yo-yoing off the back of the peleton even before they hit the final climb, but he kept on trying and eventually ended 20th on the stage, and he currently sits 1:30 down. He would have to win from an attack of course, but he doesn't have much profile, so an attack by him won't be chased hard, and he won't be marked out of a breakaway, by cautious rivals. I think he'll prove to be a very good cyclist, it's just a matter of when his breakthrough comes.
Ruben Fernandez managed to trip over his own wheel going uphill in one of the more bizarre crashes you will see, but he picked himself up and managed to finish in the top 15. He was on the attack however, and clearly felt good enough to go on with it, as he was looking for Tejay van Garderen's wheel when he fell. The Tour D'Avenir winner will have his work cut out winning here, and he may have to work in tandem with the higher placed Gorka Izagirre, but he is one to watch.
And finally, one for the early breakaway is Rein Taaramae. I've already spoken about the tactical reasons for him going into the break, which will involve him working for his teammates, but if you give him a scent of victory he will go for it. He has already won this season, taking out the Vuelta a Murcia, before not disgracing himself with 5th overall in Algarve. Of course, trying to pick breakaway winners is like successfully picking which meat pie doesn't contain horsemeat, but that's my best shot.
The Verdict
I think I'll go with Gorka Izagirre here, when in doubt go with one of your favourites, and the combative Gorka deserves to be everyone's favourite. He is somewhat in the shadow of his younger brother Ion, but when it comes to this sort of terrain I'd back Gorka. Possessing a decent sprint, good climbing form and good team support, he got the ingredients to win this one.
With a stage wide open like this one there are maybe 20-30 riders who I could make a case for winning and still not be done.
Michael Matthews is the only one of the sprinters who could realistically get over this amount of climbing, but I think this might be too much even for him. If he does make it to the end however he will be the fastest.
Michal Kwiatkowski would be the big favourite for this stage if he had a team strong enough to control the race for him. His sprint and classics riding skills will stand in good stead for the finale. His descending ability is probably one of the few advantages that he will possess over Sky, and he could try and make a move on the final descent into Nice, knowing that descending is one area where the brute strength of Sky is less likely to help.
Geraint Thomas is in great form at the moment, and this terrain suits him a lot better than Stage 4, and he finished second there. He could be the one to make the first move for Team Sky, as Porte will most likely be content to sit on wheels and not lose time, and then do a big TT tomorrow. His move could well be the big tactical move of the day, as it was on Stage 4, and he will definitely be one to keep a close eye on.
Tom Dumoulin is a hardy climber with an impressive sprint, and might be one of the few that could take Kwiatkowski in a sprint finish. Getting there will be the hard part for the Dutchman, who came into this race with an illness, but he appears to have shrugged it off, and is currently 15th on GC. He will have the same problem as the world champ however, he will be isolated, and everyone will know that he is a faster sprinter than they are.
Riccardo Zoidl is an obscure name in the sport, but the rising star of Austrian cycling (arguably the only star) has some serious climbing legs and guts to go with them. In Stage 4, he was yo-yoing off the back of the peleton even before they hit the final climb, but he kept on trying and eventually ended 20th on the stage, and he currently sits 1:30 down. He would have to win from an attack of course, but he doesn't have much profile, so an attack by him won't be chased hard, and he won't be marked out of a breakaway, by cautious rivals. I think he'll prove to be a very good cyclist, it's just a matter of when his breakthrough comes.
Ruben Fernandez managed to trip over his own wheel going uphill in one of the more bizarre crashes you will see, but he picked himself up and managed to finish in the top 15. He was on the attack however, and clearly felt good enough to go on with it, as he was looking for Tejay van Garderen's wheel when he fell. The Tour D'Avenir winner will have his work cut out winning here, and he may have to work in tandem with the higher placed Gorka Izagirre, but he is one to watch.
And finally, one for the early breakaway is Rein Taaramae. I've already spoken about the tactical reasons for him going into the break, which will involve him working for his teammates, but if you give him a scent of victory he will go for it. He has already won this season, taking out the Vuelta a Murcia, before not disgracing himself with 5th overall in Algarve. Of course, trying to pick breakaway winners is like successfully picking which meat pie doesn't contain horsemeat, but that's my best shot.
The Verdict
I think I'll go with Gorka Izagirre here, when in doubt go with one of your favourites, and the combative Gorka deserves to be everyone's favourite. He is somewhat in the shadow of his younger brother Ion, but when it comes to this sort of terrain I'd back Gorka. Possessing a decent sprint, good climbing form and good team support, he got the ingredients to win this one.