Stage 5 will see the race go back to being a day for the sprinters, but the mountains aren't gone entirely. It will be a hard day in the saddle, and the finale could suit anyone from a sprinter to a puncheur, and we should see some of the GC candidates getting in the mix.
The Course
The first 12.2 kms of the race will likely be decisive, as the riders will head straight up the Col de la Republique (12.2 kms, 4.5%), and this is where the breakaway will be established. There is then a long descent into a long flat and it won't be until the Col du Deves (4.1 kms, 4.4%) that we see more climbing, but it is far too far out to attack from here, so it will serve as a leg-sapper. The riders will have a respite of 10 kms until the base of the Cote de l'Aleyrac (6.2 kms, 4%), and then a nice run-in to the Cote de Buisson (1.8 kms, 4.3%) which crest with 8 kms to go. A short descent leads to a technical finale, and a tough 600m kick to the line at 7%. This by itself would rule out quite a few sprinters, even if there wasn't a pretty hard stage before it already.
The first 12.2 kms of the race will likely be decisive, as the riders will head straight up the Col de la Republique (12.2 kms, 4.5%), and this is where the breakaway will be established. There is then a long descent into a long flat and it won't be until the Col du Deves (4.1 kms, 4.4%) that we see more climbing, but it is far too far out to attack from here, so it will serve as a leg-sapper. The riders will have a respite of 10 kms until the base of the Cote de l'Aleyrac (6.2 kms, 4%), and then a nice run-in to the Cote de Buisson (1.8 kms, 4.3%) which crest with 8 kms to go. A short descent leads to a technical finale, and a tough 600m kick to the line at 7%. This by itself would rule out quite a few sprinters, even if there wasn't a pretty hard stage before it already.
The Tactics
A lot of the tactics in this stage are going to down to the composition of the breakaway and how Orica-Greenedge wants to play it. With Michael 'Bling' Matthews perfectly suited to the stage and the finale, Orica have the best card to play if it is all together for a sprint at the end, however they will have to do a lot of work to get there, as it will be very hard to stop a big group from going away in the early kilometres of the climb. What they could opt to do is put a rider or even two in the breakaway, as riders like Daryl Impey, Simon Clarke and Michael Albasini have all the right characteristics to win this sort of stage. It puts the emphasis on the likes of Etixx-Quickstep, Sky and Giant-Alpecin to do the chasing, and even if the breakaway gets brought back, they then have Matthews to go for the win.
The main problem I see with the breakaway strategy is Phillip Gilbert, who seems to be targeting mountain points, and is likely to go in the breakaway today. He will be able to beat anyone Orica can put into the break most likely, and his presence would mean that they would have to chase the move down to have the best shot at winning, and they'll be reduced in strength with at least one rider already up the road.
There are risks in either strategy, but I think Matt White will be looking to give his riders as much rest as possible after a few hard days on the road, where the team has been asked to do quite a lot of work, so we'll see Impey, Clarke, Albasini, Yates or Keukeliere in the break, with the rest ready to help Matthews if the race comes back together.
Will the other teams chase the move down independently? It is possible, but I think it unlikely. There aren't so many riders in dangerous GC positions after the last stage, so there probably won't be many riders wanting to waste energy in a futile move, when they know that they'll be needing that energy over the next two stages. A dangerous rider going would force EQS and Sky to chase it down, but otherwise I think they'll try to conserve for tomorrow's stage.
Giant-Alpecin are the other team with a possible interest in the stage, with John Degenkolb suited to the finish, but I think their help chasing will be limited at best, judging by previous stages, and not enough to drag back a decent sized break by themselves
As for the break itself, I would expect plenty of teams to be interested in getting riders present and I would be surprised to see a group of less than 10 going away.
A lot of the tactics in this stage are going to down to the composition of the breakaway and how Orica-Greenedge wants to play it. With Michael 'Bling' Matthews perfectly suited to the stage and the finale, Orica have the best card to play if it is all together for a sprint at the end, however they will have to do a lot of work to get there, as it will be very hard to stop a big group from going away in the early kilometres of the climb. What they could opt to do is put a rider or even two in the breakaway, as riders like Daryl Impey, Simon Clarke and Michael Albasini have all the right characteristics to win this sort of stage. It puts the emphasis on the likes of Etixx-Quickstep, Sky and Giant-Alpecin to do the chasing, and even if the breakaway gets brought back, they then have Matthews to go for the win.
The main problem I see with the breakaway strategy is Phillip Gilbert, who seems to be targeting mountain points, and is likely to go in the breakaway today. He will be able to beat anyone Orica can put into the break most likely, and his presence would mean that they would have to chase the move down to have the best shot at winning, and they'll be reduced in strength with at least one rider already up the road.
There are risks in either strategy, but I think Matt White will be looking to give his riders as much rest as possible after a few hard days on the road, where the team has been asked to do quite a lot of work, so we'll see Impey, Clarke, Albasini, Yates or Keukeliere in the break, with the rest ready to help Matthews if the race comes back together.
Will the other teams chase the move down independently? It is possible, but I think it unlikely. There aren't so many riders in dangerous GC positions after the last stage, so there probably won't be many riders wanting to waste energy in a futile move, when they know that they'll be needing that energy over the next two stages. A dangerous rider going would force EQS and Sky to chase it down, but otherwise I think they'll try to conserve for tomorrow's stage.
Giant-Alpecin are the other team with a possible interest in the stage, with John Degenkolb suited to the finish, but I think their help chasing will be limited at best, judging by previous stages, and not enough to drag back a decent sized break by themselves
As for the break itself, I would expect plenty of teams to be interested in getting riders present and I would be surprised to see a group of less than 10 going away.
The Contenders
There are only a handful of riders that could realistically win on the finale of this stage, if it comes down to a bunch sprint. The preeminent favourite will be Michael Matthews, who won on a much easier Stage 3 parcours, and will only be better on this finish. He also has a host of teammates who also excel on this sort of climby, sprinty finish, and who will have him in the perfect position to go for the win. He did go quite deep yesterday, trying to get up the final climb, but once he knew he wasn't going to make it, he sat up and saved energy for today's stage.
John Degenkolb is one of the few who might realistically challenge the Australian here, he is a good climber, and has a really powerful burst that he can lay out in this type of finish. He might well more fatigued by the time the race reaches the finish, compared to Matthews at least, and he'll have to do more work than Bling in the finish, as he doesn't have the same quality of leadout.
Nacer Bouhanni is often called a pure sprinter, but that ignores a lot of very good results he has gotten in the past on the steeper finishes. He hasn't been great so far in Paris-Nice, but at his best he is faster than Matthews and Degenkolb.
Michal Kwiatkowski keeps on proving that he is a superb all-round athlete, combining superb time-trialling, climbing and sprinting into the one package. If this finale was at the end of a harder stage, he'd be the favourite, but the easier parcours will allow the sprinters to be around. Nonetheless, I expect the world champion to be right there if he gets a chance to go for the bonus seconds.
Geraint Thomas also packs a decent kick, and the uphill nature of the sprint brings him into it. He is in great form obviously, maybe even career best form, and I'm not prepared to write him off from getting a good result here, as he has already surpassed my expectations.
The rest of the contenders I see as coming from a break, with the one exception of Phillip Gilbert, who could win from either. In 2011, 2012, Gilbert would have been the big favourite on this finish, as he proved unbeatable on this terrain, often winning by lengths on his opposition. He looks to have been building form in Paris-Nice, and having a go at the KOM, and for that reason I think he will go in the break, but he has the sprint and the nous to win from a bunch sprint as well.
As for other candidates, there are obviously a lot, but it is a bit easier to pick who will go when the break is established on a climb, as it is more down to strength than luck. Thomas de Gendt will probably be in there, trying to defend his KOM jersey, Thomas Voeckler has been active this race, and of course loves getting his tongue out on TV so is also an obvious candidate. If I had to pick anyone however, I'd take Michael Valgren Andersen, a young Danish riderwith Tinkoff-Saxo who has been touted as a future classics star. This finish is right up his alley, and he will be one of the favourites from any group of riders he finds himself with, He is also in pretty good form, doing a lot of work to bring Rafal Majka back to the bunch after his mechanical in the last stage.
The Verdict
Michael Matthews simply looks peerless at the moment on this sort of finish, the bigger question is whether he will get to sprint for the win.
There are only a handful of riders that could realistically win on the finale of this stage, if it comes down to a bunch sprint. The preeminent favourite will be Michael Matthews, who won on a much easier Stage 3 parcours, and will only be better on this finish. He also has a host of teammates who also excel on this sort of climby, sprinty finish, and who will have him in the perfect position to go for the win. He did go quite deep yesterday, trying to get up the final climb, but once he knew he wasn't going to make it, he sat up and saved energy for today's stage.
John Degenkolb is one of the few who might realistically challenge the Australian here, he is a good climber, and has a really powerful burst that he can lay out in this type of finish. He might well more fatigued by the time the race reaches the finish, compared to Matthews at least, and he'll have to do more work than Bling in the finish, as he doesn't have the same quality of leadout.
Nacer Bouhanni is often called a pure sprinter, but that ignores a lot of very good results he has gotten in the past on the steeper finishes. He hasn't been great so far in Paris-Nice, but at his best he is faster than Matthews and Degenkolb.
Michal Kwiatkowski keeps on proving that he is a superb all-round athlete, combining superb time-trialling, climbing and sprinting into the one package. If this finale was at the end of a harder stage, he'd be the favourite, but the easier parcours will allow the sprinters to be around. Nonetheless, I expect the world champion to be right there if he gets a chance to go for the bonus seconds.
Geraint Thomas also packs a decent kick, and the uphill nature of the sprint brings him into it. He is in great form obviously, maybe even career best form, and I'm not prepared to write him off from getting a good result here, as he has already surpassed my expectations.
The rest of the contenders I see as coming from a break, with the one exception of Phillip Gilbert, who could win from either. In 2011, 2012, Gilbert would have been the big favourite on this finish, as he proved unbeatable on this terrain, often winning by lengths on his opposition. He looks to have been building form in Paris-Nice, and having a go at the KOM, and for that reason I think he will go in the break, but he has the sprint and the nous to win from a bunch sprint as well.
As for other candidates, there are obviously a lot, but it is a bit easier to pick who will go when the break is established on a climb, as it is more down to strength than luck. Thomas de Gendt will probably be in there, trying to defend his KOM jersey, Thomas Voeckler has been active this race, and of course loves getting his tongue out on TV so is also an obvious candidate. If I had to pick anyone however, I'd take Michael Valgren Andersen, a young Danish riderwith Tinkoff-Saxo who has been touted as a future classics star. This finish is right up his alley, and he will be one of the favourites from any group of riders he finds himself with, He is also in pretty good form, doing a lot of work to bring Rafal Majka back to the bunch after his mechanical in the last stage.
The Verdict
Michael Matthews simply looks peerless at the moment on this sort of finish, the bigger question is whether he will get to sprint for the win.