The only mountaintop finish of the race is sure to give us a clearer picture of the GC, and the top riders will be fighting all the way to the peak of the Croix de Chaubouret after 204 kilometres of gruelling racing.
The Course
The initial landscape for the riders will be rolling, but before too long they will tackle two longish climbs, at 6 kms each, but very mild gradients of 3.5%. The sprint point follows soon after, but the break should hoover most of the points and bonuses up. The riders are then on mostly flat terrain for the next 70 kms until the reach a series of two category 2 and three category 3 climbs, which mean that riders will either being going up or downhill for almost all of the last 64 kms of the race. Thankfully the gradients aren't too steep for the most part, and none of the main contenders should be challenged to stay in the front group. The final challenge of the day is the Croix de Chaubouret (10.0 kms, 6.7%), and it is fittingly the hardest climb as well. It maintains a steady gradient throughout, without any particularly steep pinches to launch attacks from.
The Tactics
There should finally be a decent break going today, as there are tactical reasons for riders to go up the road, plus the lure of the King of the Mountains jersey. Breakaway riders up the road are very useful for bridging to after launching an attack, they can do a few helpful turns as well as give some extra motivation. They can also help out if they are caught by the peleton, as by that stage, quite a few teammates may already have been dropped and they can revert back to a domestique role for their leader. I'm not sure which teams will look to this sort of tactic, maybe a team like Europcar will do this to preface an attack from Romain Sicard. I can't see most of the favourites doing too aggressive a move however, as they will really want to save their energy for as late as possible in the stage.
The prelude climbs, which begin with 60 kms to go, could provide an opportunity for some attacks, as guys like Tim Wellens, Tom Dumoulin and Geraint Thomas aren't fully suited to going up mountains, but excel in the hills, so they could try and gain an advantage over the better climbers. But in the end, most will want to keep their energy for the last climb, so I would more expect teams with multiple GC threats, like Movistar and Astana to be the ones trying to instigate moves, and forcing the other teams to use up energy to chase them down. So maybe guys like Gorka Izaguirre and Rein Taaramae could be on the move. Incidentally I don't think these moves will really work, as Team Sky and BMC have too much interest in seeing the race altogether at the base of the climb, and they have a lot of firepower at their disposal.
There won't be too much space for tactics once they hit the climb, the one question is whether there will be a lot of teammates there in support, who will drive the pace, or if the favourites are largely left to themselves. If BMC and/or Sky keep enough riders for the climb, then expect them to set a solid tempo on front, as both Porte and Van Garderen prefer a steady pace, rather than having to change pace and respond to attacks. I think that we'll see Wiggins and Dennis as the last super domestiques driving up the climb to set things up for their leaders. After that, it will down to who has the legs and the street smarts make the right attack.
The Contenders
Richie Porte came into the race the favourite, he did a good prologue and hasn't set a step wrong in the race so far. Up the tougher climbs so far this season he has been unsurpassed, attacking and easily distancing his opponents in the Tour Down Under and Algarve. He goes up against tougher foes here however. He will also probably be disadvantaged by the length of the stage, which at 204 kms, with the amount of climbing, is almost of classics length, and Porte isn't a strong rider in those races.
Tejay Van Garderen is in some pretty good form in his own right, finishing second in the Tour of Oman, and forcing the pace on Green Mountain to split the race apart. He also did a good prologue, and he looks to be in good shape. He likes these sorts of steady gradients, where he can get into a good rhythm, even though he'd probably be better suited to something steeper.
Romain Bardet is a rider who I was expecting to do well this race, but he did a poor prologue, admittedly not one of his strengths. He did show strength yesterday, as he tried to steal a march by attacking in the final 10 kms, and despite being reeled back in, it is a positive sign. A big name in French cycling, he'll want to perform well on his home turf, and he has the form, performing well behind Froome and Contador in Andalucía.
Wilco Kelderman is another up-and-comer looking to grab his first big stage race, and this could be a good opportunity for the young Dutchman. I think he would prefer a more unstructured race, where he can utilise his powerful attack, and if the race splits to pieces early on the climb, then I think Kelderman will be have the advantage.
Michal Kwiatkowski is clearly in very good form at the moment, putting big time into most of his rivals on a very short TT course, and he's also just coming off a second overall in Algarve. He will relish the length of the stage, he is already a great classics rider, the world champion no less, and will be one of the few that will easily handle the distance. The question for him is whether he can win at the top of a mountain. His second overall (to Contador) in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco answers that for me, it is one of the tougher stage races for climbers, and it was also over a year ago, meaning that he's had plenty of time to develop further.
Rafal Majka didn't do a good prologue, which wasn't a surprise, and he can bounce back with an impressive performance on this climb. I'm sure he would prefer a shorter stage with harder climbing however. His 4th on Green Mountain was a fair way behind Van Garderen however, and it is a very similar climb.
Movistar have four riders who could go for the stage win today, in the Izagirre brothers, Ruben Fernandez and Benat Intxausti, but I wouldn't count any as favourites except Intxausti. Astana are in the same boat, with Taaramae, Fuglsang, Aru and LL Sanchez, again I'd only have Sanchez and Fuglsang as real favourites. Both these teams can use their numerical strength in interesting ways, and we could see some interesting one-two punches, long-distance breaks or bridging attack moves to try and give their riders the best chance at winning.
Rui Costa, Tom Dumoulin, Sylvain Chavanel, Tony Gallopin and Tim Wellens all came into this race with GC ambitions but I think this final climb will be a bit too hard for them against this company.
The Verdict
I predicted a win for Michal Kwiatkowski in the overall, and nothing has happened to change my mind since then, in fact he did better than I expected in the prologue, and has looked assured in his defence of yellow. He is looking very strong and I think he'll be able to win this one.
The initial landscape for the riders will be rolling, but before too long they will tackle two longish climbs, at 6 kms each, but very mild gradients of 3.5%. The sprint point follows soon after, but the break should hoover most of the points and bonuses up. The riders are then on mostly flat terrain for the next 70 kms until the reach a series of two category 2 and three category 3 climbs, which mean that riders will either being going up or downhill for almost all of the last 64 kms of the race. Thankfully the gradients aren't too steep for the most part, and none of the main contenders should be challenged to stay in the front group. The final challenge of the day is the Croix de Chaubouret (10.0 kms, 6.7%), and it is fittingly the hardest climb as well. It maintains a steady gradient throughout, without any particularly steep pinches to launch attacks from.
The Tactics
There should finally be a decent break going today, as there are tactical reasons for riders to go up the road, plus the lure of the King of the Mountains jersey. Breakaway riders up the road are very useful for bridging to after launching an attack, they can do a few helpful turns as well as give some extra motivation. They can also help out if they are caught by the peleton, as by that stage, quite a few teammates may already have been dropped and they can revert back to a domestique role for their leader. I'm not sure which teams will look to this sort of tactic, maybe a team like Europcar will do this to preface an attack from Romain Sicard. I can't see most of the favourites doing too aggressive a move however, as they will really want to save their energy for as late as possible in the stage.
The prelude climbs, which begin with 60 kms to go, could provide an opportunity for some attacks, as guys like Tim Wellens, Tom Dumoulin and Geraint Thomas aren't fully suited to going up mountains, but excel in the hills, so they could try and gain an advantage over the better climbers. But in the end, most will want to keep their energy for the last climb, so I would more expect teams with multiple GC threats, like Movistar and Astana to be the ones trying to instigate moves, and forcing the other teams to use up energy to chase them down. So maybe guys like Gorka Izaguirre and Rein Taaramae could be on the move. Incidentally I don't think these moves will really work, as Team Sky and BMC have too much interest in seeing the race altogether at the base of the climb, and they have a lot of firepower at their disposal.
There won't be too much space for tactics once they hit the climb, the one question is whether there will be a lot of teammates there in support, who will drive the pace, or if the favourites are largely left to themselves. If BMC and/or Sky keep enough riders for the climb, then expect them to set a solid tempo on front, as both Porte and Van Garderen prefer a steady pace, rather than having to change pace and respond to attacks. I think that we'll see Wiggins and Dennis as the last super domestiques driving up the climb to set things up for their leaders. After that, it will down to who has the legs and the street smarts make the right attack.
The Contenders
Richie Porte came into the race the favourite, he did a good prologue and hasn't set a step wrong in the race so far. Up the tougher climbs so far this season he has been unsurpassed, attacking and easily distancing his opponents in the Tour Down Under and Algarve. He goes up against tougher foes here however. He will also probably be disadvantaged by the length of the stage, which at 204 kms, with the amount of climbing, is almost of classics length, and Porte isn't a strong rider in those races.
Tejay Van Garderen is in some pretty good form in his own right, finishing second in the Tour of Oman, and forcing the pace on Green Mountain to split the race apart. He also did a good prologue, and he looks to be in good shape. He likes these sorts of steady gradients, where he can get into a good rhythm, even though he'd probably be better suited to something steeper.
Romain Bardet is a rider who I was expecting to do well this race, but he did a poor prologue, admittedly not one of his strengths. He did show strength yesterday, as he tried to steal a march by attacking in the final 10 kms, and despite being reeled back in, it is a positive sign. A big name in French cycling, he'll want to perform well on his home turf, and he has the form, performing well behind Froome and Contador in Andalucía.
Wilco Kelderman is another up-and-comer looking to grab his first big stage race, and this could be a good opportunity for the young Dutchman. I think he would prefer a more unstructured race, where he can utilise his powerful attack, and if the race splits to pieces early on the climb, then I think Kelderman will be have the advantage.
Michal Kwiatkowski is clearly in very good form at the moment, putting big time into most of his rivals on a very short TT course, and he's also just coming off a second overall in Algarve. He will relish the length of the stage, he is already a great classics rider, the world champion no less, and will be one of the few that will easily handle the distance. The question for him is whether he can win at the top of a mountain. His second overall (to Contador) in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco answers that for me, it is one of the tougher stage races for climbers, and it was also over a year ago, meaning that he's had plenty of time to develop further.
Rafal Majka didn't do a good prologue, which wasn't a surprise, and he can bounce back with an impressive performance on this climb. I'm sure he would prefer a shorter stage with harder climbing however. His 4th on Green Mountain was a fair way behind Van Garderen however, and it is a very similar climb.
Movistar have four riders who could go for the stage win today, in the Izagirre brothers, Ruben Fernandez and Benat Intxausti, but I wouldn't count any as favourites except Intxausti. Astana are in the same boat, with Taaramae, Fuglsang, Aru and LL Sanchez, again I'd only have Sanchez and Fuglsang as real favourites. Both these teams can use their numerical strength in interesting ways, and we could see some interesting one-two punches, long-distance breaks or bridging attack moves to try and give their riders the best chance at winning.
Rui Costa, Tom Dumoulin, Sylvain Chavanel, Tony Gallopin and Tim Wellens all came into this race with GC ambitions but I think this final climb will be a bit too hard for them against this company.
The Verdict
I predicted a win for Michal Kwiatkowski in the overall, and nothing has happened to change my mind since then, in fact he did better than I expected in the prologue, and has looked assured in his defence of yellow. He is looking very strong and I think he'll be able to win this one.