Stage 3 tweaks the sprint formula a bit, there's some climbing on the run-in this time, the sprint itself will be slightly uphill and there's a corner 300m from the line. There's sure to be more action on this stage than the previous two, though you could hardly be too disappointed with the final 20 kms of either stage to date.
The Course
The race takes the peleton from the finish town of yesterday's stage, heading south through central France over some rolling terrain. The first sprint point comes after 27.5 kms, and from there it is another 26 kms to the first climb of the day the Cote de la Croix du Chene (2.1 kms, 4%). This will be the first spot for KOM points, but there are more still on the road, as the riders will also crest the Col de la Bosse (2.4 kms, 5%) and the Cote de Vicq (1.6kms, 5.8%). The Col de la Bosse's number are quite deceptive however, as there is a fair bit of climbing before the riders hit the actual categorised portion. The final climb summits with 52 kms to go in the race, and then the riders tackle some rolling terrain before they hit the mostly flat final circuit. They'll do 1.5 circuits of the 20 km loop, which finishes with a 500 m slope at 3%. This includes a bend to the right with 300m to go, sharp enough to string out the peleton, and ensure that the winner will come from the first few riders.
The Tactics
It's hard to see many riders looking to be in the break, after lacklustre efforts in the previous few days, but perhaps some teams like Tinkoff-Saxo and AG2R will have had enough of sprinting for 20th, and will try to animate the race. Certainly, there is a better chance of the break staying away today, with some more varied terrain. The first sprint point comes after 27.5 kms, and if the break is as small as it has been on previous days, then there will still be some bonuses for Matthews and Degenkolb to go after. The mountain points have been the goal of Bretagne-Seche so far, and they'll probably send Hivert or Gerard in the break again, but the real decider for that classification will be on Stage 6, and they're just the caretakers of the jersey until then.
The finish and course aren't so tough to really rule many of the sprinters out (probably Nizzolo and Hutarovich are the only two), but it will advantage some riders over others, particularly if teams like Orica-Greenedge, Giant-Alpecin and Europcar try and really drive the race over the climbs. I doubt that this will drop any riders drastically enough to exclude them from the finish, but it could hurt the legs of the poorer climbers, and give a slight advantage to those better suited to going up hills. At the end of the day however, it will only be one of the fastest men that wins this stage, with a 3% gradient over 500m not going to exclude anyone from winning. The battle will be for the sprinters' teams to position their fast men into the final corner with 300m to go in one of the front positions. Of course everyone is trying to accomplish the same thing, so it will come down to the strength of the leadout and smarts.
The race takes the peleton from the finish town of yesterday's stage, heading south through central France over some rolling terrain. The first sprint point comes after 27.5 kms, and from there it is another 26 kms to the first climb of the day the Cote de la Croix du Chene (2.1 kms, 4%). This will be the first spot for KOM points, but there are more still on the road, as the riders will also crest the Col de la Bosse (2.4 kms, 5%) and the Cote de Vicq (1.6kms, 5.8%). The Col de la Bosse's number are quite deceptive however, as there is a fair bit of climbing before the riders hit the actual categorised portion. The final climb summits with 52 kms to go in the race, and then the riders tackle some rolling terrain before they hit the mostly flat final circuit. They'll do 1.5 circuits of the 20 km loop, which finishes with a 500 m slope at 3%. This includes a bend to the right with 300m to go, sharp enough to string out the peleton, and ensure that the winner will come from the first few riders.
The Tactics
It's hard to see many riders looking to be in the break, after lacklustre efforts in the previous few days, but perhaps some teams like Tinkoff-Saxo and AG2R will have had enough of sprinting for 20th, and will try to animate the race. Certainly, there is a better chance of the break staying away today, with some more varied terrain. The first sprint point comes after 27.5 kms, and if the break is as small as it has been on previous days, then there will still be some bonuses for Matthews and Degenkolb to go after. The mountain points have been the goal of Bretagne-Seche so far, and they'll probably send Hivert or Gerard in the break again, but the real decider for that classification will be on Stage 6, and they're just the caretakers of the jersey until then.
The finish and course aren't so tough to really rule many of the sprinters out (probably Nizzolo and Hutarovich are the only two), but it will advantage some riders over others, particularly if teams like Orica-Greenedge, Giant-Alpecin and Europcar try and really drive the race over the climbs. I doubt that this will drop any riders drastically enough to exclude them from the finish, but it could hurt the legs of the poorer climbers, and give a slight advantage to those better suited to going up hills. At the end of the day however, it will only be one of the fastest men that wins this stage, with a 3% gradient over 500m not going to exclude anyone from winning. The battle will be for the sprinters' teams to position their fast men into the final corner with 300m to go in one of the front positions. Of course everyone is trying to accomplish the same thing, so it will come down to the strength of the leadout and smarts.
The Contenders
The main names that we'll look at aren't drastically different from the first two stages, but they'll be tweaked a little to account for the differences in the stage.
Michael Matthews has to come into this stage as one of the main favourites after an impressive fourth yesterday, where his team did a very strong job to reel in the the Tony Martin, Geraint Thomas and Lars Boom breakaway, before leading Matthews to a box seat, where he held position against guys he wouldn't be expected to beat on the flat. Add a bit of gradient into the sprint, some hills beforehand and the fact that it's going to be critical who gets the leadout through that final turn, and the pieces could well fall into place for Matthews.
John Degenkolb is another who enjoys an uphill finish, although probably he and Matthews would prefer a steeper gradient. He doesn't look too far from a win, but it hasn't quite clicked yet for him and his team, maybe today will be today, but notably his leadout is comprised of non-climbers.
Alexander Kristoff had an off day yesterday, complaining of a bad feeling in his legs, odd from the very consistent Norwegian. Interpret that how you want, it could be down to what he had for breakfast or the start of an illness. Certainly he has been on form, and it wouldn't surprise anyone to see him bounce back with a win.
Bryan "The Mosquito" Coquard (have to do my bit to make the nickname stick), will also be happier with today's slight uphill drag, but will have to be at his best in positioning to give himself a shot at the win. He struck bad luck on Stage 2 with a late mechanical which ruined his chances, so he'll be hoping for his luck to even out in this one.
Andre Greipel is a big man, but he actually isn't slowed down by these sorts of uphill finishes, recently winning a harder finish than this in Algarve, albeit against a lesser field. His leadout did a very smart job yesterday, arriving on the front at exactly the right time to put Greipel in the best position for the win. He doesn't like a lot of hard climbing in the lead-up to the finish however, and if the stage is made hard by a few teams, he will struggle to put down his normal power.
Nacer Bouhanni handles hills quite well, and won't be shelled out the back on the climbs, and will also relish the slight uphill finish. His sprinting still has someway to go to recapture his form of last year, and he is missing his main leadout man Gregory Soupe, which has noticeably hurt his chances in the first few stages.
Moreno Hofland has been lurking in the background in the sprints so far, and without a dedicated leadout, that's probably where he'll stay for the moment. Niccola Bonifazio is a rider who I think prefers the hillier sprints, but at this stage in his career it is hard to tell. He certainly didn't disgrace himself on the flat finishes to date, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him grab a result here. JJ Rojas also deserves a mention for his career resurgence. He took a shock win in Qatar, and has backed it up with a 6th and 5th here. He is better over the hills, so by logical extension he should be right up there in this one.
The Verdict
In case it wasn't obvious, Michael Matthews is the pick for today. He should be extra fired up by the chance to take the leader's jersey with a victory, and I have no doubt that Orica-Greenedge will lay it on the line for him to take the win.
The main names that we'll look at aren't drastically different from the first two stages, but they'll be tweaked a little to account for the differences in the stage.
Michael Matthews has to come into this stage as one of the main favourites after an impressive fourth yesterday, where his team did a very strong job to reel in the the Tony Martin, Geraint Thomas and Lars Boom breakaway, before leading Matthews to a box seat, where he held position against guys he wouldn't be expected to beat on the flat. Add a bit of gradient into the sprint, some hills beforehand and the fact that it's going to be critical who gets the leadout through that final turn, and the pieces could well fall into place for Matthews.
John Degenkolb is another who enjoys an uphill finish, although probably he and Matthews would prefer a steeper gradient. He doesn't look too far from a win, but it hasn't quite clicked yet for him and his team, maybe today will be today, but notably his leadout is comprised of non-climbers.
Alexander Kristoff had an off day yesterday, complaining of a bad feeling in his legs, odd from the very consistent Norwegian. Interpret that how you want, it could be down to what he had for breakfast or the start of an illness. Certainly he has been on form, and it wouldn't surprise anyone to see him bounce back with a win.
Bryan "The Mosquito" Coquard (have to do my bit to make the nickname stick), will also be happier with today's slight uphill drag, but will have to be at his best in positioning to give himself a shot at the win. He struck bad luck on Stage 2 with a late mechanical which ruined his chances, so he'll be hoping for his luck to even out in this one.
Andre Greipel is a big man, but he actually isn't slowed down by these sorts of uphill finishes, recently winning a harder finish than this in Algarve, albeit against a lesser field. His leadout did a very smart job yesterday, arriving on the front at exactly the right time to put Greipel in the best position for the win. He doesn't like a lot of hard climbing in the lead-up to the finish however, and if the stage is made hard by a few teams, he will struggle to put down his normal power.
Nacer Bouhanni handles hills quite well, and won't be shelled out the back on the climbs, and will also relish the slight uphill finish. His sprinting still has someway to go to recapture his form of last year, and he is missing his main leadout man Gregory Soupe, which has noticeably hurt his chances in the first few stages.
Moreno Hofland has been lurking in the background in the sprints so far, and without a dedicated leadout, that's probably where he'll stay for the moment. Niccola Bonifazio is a rider who I think prefers the hillier sprints, but at this stage in his career it is hard to tell. He certainly didn't disgrace himself on the flat finishes to date, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him grab a result here. JJ Rojas also deserves a mention for his career resurgence. He took a shock win in Qatar, and has backed it up with a 6th and 5th here. He is better over the hills, so by logical extension he should be right up there in this one.
The Verdict
In case it wasn't obvious, Michael Matthews is the pick for today. He should be extra fired up by the chance to take the leader's jersey with a victory, and I have no doubt that Orica-Greenedge will lay it on the line for him to take the win.