It's not the high mountains or the particularly steep climbs of Tirreno-Adriatico, but Paris-Nice makes up for it with some really open, tough racing. Sprint stages can become crosswind stages, and attacks are launched anywhere and everywhere on the hilly stages. The really big names may be elsewhere, but there are still a lot of top-tier talent here to contest this race.
The Course
It's a race of two halves, as Paris-Nice often is. The prologue and Stages 1, 2 and 3 are all flat, before they get further south, and the road turns upwards for Stages 4, 5, 6 and 7.
The prologue kicks things off, a 6.7 km course, with lots of long open straights which will favour the specialists, and despite the presence of a fairly steep 200m climb the gaps will be fairly small, and we should see one of the normal names winning.
Stages 1 begins at the bottom of a Category 3 climb, but that is the only climbing the riders will be doing all day, and its main purpose will be for establishing the break.
Stage 2 is entirely flat, but it won't be a day for the GC contenders to slack off, as they will need to keep an eye on the crosswinds. Alejandro Valverde learnt this the hard way in the 2013 TDF into the same finish, as he gave up a massive 12 minutes on the stage, scotching his GC ambitions.
Stage 3 has three Category 3 climbs, but they are short and not overly steep and are unlikely to affect the finale, which will again be one for the sprinters.
Stage 4 is where we will see the climbers come out to play for the first time, with 8 categorised climbs (mostly Category 2s and 3s). The big battle will be up to the mountain top finish at the peak of the Croix de Chaubouret (10 kms, 6.7%).
Stage 5, is almost a reverse of the last stage, starting with the Category 1 Col de la Republique (12.2 kms, 4.5%) before a long descent and flat before they reach further climbing, a series of relatively easy ascents, which could well see a lot of attacking, but it will be hard to shake the climby sprinters in this one.
Stage 6 will be the hardest day of the race, and it will be one of the best days for watching as well, to see how teams look to attack or defend on this course that is either up or down for most of the day. There is still 26 kms to go from the top of the last climb, which will probably mean that we will see a small group reach the finish rather than a solo winner, but many scenarios are possible.
Stage 7 offers one final chance to shake up the GC, with a mountain time trial straight up the Col D'Eze (9.6 kms, 4.7%).
It's a race of two halves, as Paris-Nice often is. The prologue and Stages 1, 2 and 3 are all flat, before they get further south, and the road turns upwards for Stages 4, 5, 6 and 7.
The prologue kicks things off, a 6.7 km course, with lots of long open straights which will favour the specialists, and despite the presence of a fairly steep 200m climb the gaps will be fairly small, and we should see one of the normal names winning.
Stages 1 begins at the bottom of a Category 3 climb, but that is the only climbing the riders will be doing all day, and its main purpose will be for establishing the break.
Stage 2 is entirely flat, but it won't be a day for the GC contenders to slack off, as they will need to keep an eye on the crosswinds. Alejandro Valverde learnt this the hard way in the 2013 TDF into the same finish, as he gave up a massive 12 minutes on the stage, scotching his GC ambitions.
Stage 3 has three Category 3 climbs, but they are short and not overly steep and are unlikely to affect the finale, which will again be one for the sprinters.
Stage 4 is where we will see the climbers come out to play for the first time, with 8 categorised climbs (mostly Category 2s and 3s). The big battle will be up to the mountain top finish at the peak of the Croix de Chaubouret (10 kms, 6.7%).
Stage 5, is almost a reverse of the last stage, starting with the Category 1 Col de la Republique (12.2 kms, 4.5%) before a long descent and flat before they reach further climbing, a series of relatively easy ascents, which could well see a lot of attacking, but it will be hard to shake the climby sprinters in this one.
Stage 6 will be the hardest day of the race, and it will be one of the best days for watching as well, to see how teams look to attack or defend on this course that is either up or down for most of the day. There is still 26 kms to go from the top of the last climb, which will probably mean that we will see a small group reach the finish rather than a solo winner, but many scenarios are possible.
Stage 7 offers one final chance to shake up the GC, with a mountain time trial straight up the Col D'Eze (9.6 kms, 4.7%).
The Tactics
It seems obvious to say, but each team will look to play to its strengths and target certain stages. IAM, Lotto-Soudal, Lotto NL-Jumbo and EQS all bring classics squads, and will be the teams looking to break the race apart in the crosswinds. Astana have probably 4 guys that could realistically win the race, so they will look to target Stage 6 and get some dangerous riders up the road whilst there other GC riders bide their time. Other teams also have multiple leaders so they could look to take advantage of such a move as well. The teams with a single GC option won't want to waste their key rider's energy by placing him into these sort of moves, they'll be looking to control the race to the final climb of each day and have them fight it out on equal terms.
The Contenders
I originally had 30 riders on my list, and have had to do some serious whittling down. In a race as open as this one is tactically, it can really go a number of ways. These aren't huge mountains here, so it is not a select few that will contest the finishes, but more probably small groups will arrive together. So whilst I've brought the list down, there are a number of riders I think can win, say if a big group escapes on Stage 6.
Richie Porte is the overwhelming favourite, and indeed he has been unbeatable on the hills in the races he has contested so far, and he'll have a strong team in support here, with Thomas, Wiggins and Roche all obviously very strong riders. He will suffer from being the marked man, and I don't think that any others on his team will be in contention for the GC, so he'll be on the defensive on Stage 6, which could be an issue if a strong move goes. Also worrying for Porte fans will be his glass jaw, as he has shown that his bad days are very bad ones, and he regularly loses 10 minutes plus on individual stages of Grand Tours.
Romain Bardet has had a good start to the season with a strong fifth in Andalucía, and he will be the main man for AG2R here. Guaranteed to be amongst the top climbers, but I'm not convinced that he has great racing instincts for following the right moves. He will be alongside the experienced Peraud, as well as a good AG2R squad.
Tejay van Garderen has been making some encouraging noises about his form ahead of this race, and if he has improved on his 2nd overall in Oman, he will be very hard to stop. I would say that he'd prefer some steeper gradients on the climbs, as even the hardest climbs here average 7%, but if he's strong enough he'll find a way to make the difference.
Rafal Majka was also in Oman, and displayed a level of form that he doesn't often display in the early season, finishing 4th overall. Again, he would prefer some really tough climbing, but if the racing is sufficiently hard over the lead-in, he will have his chance to win.
Michal Kwiatkowski will be hoping to shake the curse of the rainbow jersey (he already has three 2nd placings), and the course should be to his liking, as he has a good sprint and will look to stick with the front riders and win in the final metres, and will prefer it to not be too difficult. He's normally strong in the early season, with a ridiculously good start to last season, and he claimed to be taking it more slowly this season, but 2nd in Algarve shows that his form isn't bad at all.
Simon Spilak is another strong rider for the mountains, but he comes in as a bit of a dark horse, only appearing at Dubai and Haut-Var, which aren't really suited to his characteristics, which is why he hasn't really had any results to date. He should be fit from that racing however, and if he is in at least decent form I'd expect him to be challenging for the victory.
Andrew Talansky is a rider who tends to mix his form quite a bit, so much so that I almost didn't include him. At his best, he is as good as most of the top riders and attacks with panache. Unfortunately, he is just as likely to turn in an anonymous 10-15th. Given that he hasn't raced at all to date I'm guessing the latter is more likely, though he doesn't necessarily need to build form through racing, as he showed when he came 2nd to Porte in this race in 2013.
I'd like to consider Rafael Valls for the race win, but apparently he's been quite sick, and it will be touch and go whether he actually takes the start line.
Astana have brought multiple candidates for the win here. Luis Leon Sanchez will probably be the leader, as Fabio Aru starts his seasons slowly, but Jakob Fuglsang and Rein Taaramae are also viable options. I can't really see any of them winning a climbing battle on equal terms with the other favourites, but the benefit of having so many cards to play is that you can be more aggressive and try to steal a march. Taaramae and Sanchez are both aggressive riders who could make good use of these sorts of tactics.
Movistar are another team with strength in numbers, they have the Izaguirre brothers, Ruben Fernandez and Benat Intxausti, all with good chances of going for the victory. Intxausti would be my pick off his strong 3rd in Andalucía, but again their strength will be their numbers, and they will try and keep as many riders in contention as possible. Gorka Izaguirre is one of the few riders who will relish the more shallow gradients, as he isn't really one for the really tough mountains, and he packs a good sprint, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a stage.
Simon Yates gets the 'rider to watch' tag for this race, as Orica-Greenedge throw him in the deep end, with only fairly minimal support against riders who have achieved some serious results. There aren't any expectations or pressure to go from OGE's press release, but no doubt he will want to show that it's not just his twin brother that can perform in the big races.
It seems obvious to say, but each team will look to play to its strengths and target certain stages. IAM, Lotto-Soudal, Lotto NL-Jumbo and EQS all bring classics squads, and will be the teams looking to break the race apart in the crosswinds. Astana have probably 4 guys that could realistically win the race, so they will look to target Stage 6 and get some dangerous riders up the road whilst there other GC riders bide their time. Other teams also have multiple leaders so they could look to take advantage of such a move as well. The teams with a single GC option won't want to waste their key rider's energy by placing him into these sort of moves, they'll be looking to control the race to the final climb of each day and have them fight it out on equal terms.
The Contenders
I originally had 30 riders on my list, and have had to do some serious whittling down. In a race as open as this one is tactically, it can really go a number of ways. These aren't huge mountains here, so it is not a select few that will contest the finishes, but more probably small groups will arrive together. So whilst I've brought the list down, there are a number of riders I think can win, say if a big group escapes on Stage 6.
Richie Porte is the overwhelming favourite, and indeed he has been unbeatable on the hills in the races he has contested so far, and he'll have a strong team in support here, with Thomas, Wiggins and Roche all obviously very strong riders. He will suffer from being the marked man, and I don't think that any others on his team will be in contention for the GC, so he'll be on the defensive on Stage 6, which could be an issue if a strong move goes. Also worrying for Porte fans will be his glass jaw, as he has shown that his bad days are very bad ones, and he regularly loses 10 minutes plus on individual stages of Grand Tours.
Romain Bardet has had a good start to the season with a strong fifth in Andalucía, and he will be the main man for AG2R here. Guaranteed to be amongst the top climbers, but I'm not convinced that he has great racing instincts for following the right moves. He will be alongside the experienced Peraud, as well as a good AG2R squad.
Tejay van Garderen has been making some encouraging noises about his form ahead of this race, and if he has improved on his 2nd overall in Oman, he will be very hard to stop. I would say that he'd prefer some steeper gradients on the climbs, as even the hardest climbs here average 7%, but if he's strong enough he'll find a way to make the difference.
Rafal Majka was also in Oman, and displayed a level of form that he doesn't often display in the early season, finishing 4th overall. Again, he would prefer some really tough climbing, but if the racing is sufficiently hard over the lead-in, he will have his chance to win.
Michal Kwiatkowski will be hoping to shake the curse of the rainbow jersey (he already has three 2nd placings), and the course should be to his liking, as he has a good sprint and will look to stick with the front riders and win in the final metres, and will prefer it to not be too difficult. He's normally strong in the early season, with a ridiculously good start to last season, and he claimed to be taking it more slowly this season, but 2nd in Algarve shows that his form isn't bad at all.
Simon Spilak is another strong rider for the mountains, but he comes in as a bit of a dark horse, only appearing at Dubai and Haut-Var, which aren't really suited to his characteristics, which is why he hasn't really had any results to date. He should be fit from that racing however, and if he is in at least decent form I'd expect him to be challenging for the victory.
Andrew Talansky is a rider who tends to mix his form quite a bit, so much so that I almost didn't include him. At his best, he is as good as most of the top riders and attacks with panache. Unfortunately, he is just as likely to turn in an anonymous 10-15th. Given that he hasn't raced at all to date I'm guessing the latter is more likely, though he doesn't necessarily need to build form through racing, as he showed when he came 2nd to Porte in this race in 2013.
I'd like to consider Rafael Valls for the race win, but apparently he's been quite sick, and it will be touch and go whether he actually takes the start line.
Astana have brought multiple candidates for the win here. Luis Leon Sanchez will probably be the leader, as Fabio Aru starts his seasons slowly, but Jakob Fuglsang and Rein Taaramae are also viable options. I can't really see any of them winning a climbing battle on equal terms with the other favourites, but the benefit of having so many cards to play is that you can be more aggressive and try to steal a march. Taaramae and Sanchez are both aggressive riders who could make good use of these sorts of tactics.
Movistar are another team with strength in numbers, they have the Izaguirre brothers, Ruben Fernandez and Benat Intxausti, all with good chances of going for the victory. Intxausti would be my pick off his strong 3rd in Andalucía, but again their strength will be their numbers, and they will try and keep as many riders in contention as possible. Gorka Izaguirre is one of the few riders who will relish the more shallow gradients, as he isn't really one for the really tough mountains, and he packs a good sprint, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a stage.
Simon Yates gets the 'rider to watch' tag for this race, as Orica-Greenedge throw him in the deep end, with only fairly minimal support against riders who have achieved some serious results. There aren't any expectations or pressure to go from OGE's press release, but no doubt he will want to show that it's not just his twin brother that can perform in the big races.
The Verdict
I think it will be a short rainbow jersey curse this time around, and we will see a win for Michal Kwiatkowski. He often isn't given enough credit for what a strong climber he is, and he will excel on these sorts of gradients. He has a good enough sprint to pick up bonuses, and he is one of those early season riders who picks up good form quickly and gets the wins to go with that.
I think it will be a short rainbow jersey curse this time around, and we will see a win for Michal Kwiatkowski. He often isn't given enough credit for what a strong climber he is, and he will excel on these sorts of gradients. He has a good enough sprint to pick up bonuses, and he is one of those early season riders who picks up good form quickly and gets the wins to go with that.