The first of the Monuments, and the longest race of the year is here! the Milan San-Remo will be a bit warmer than the previous two bone-chilling editions, and we will hopefully be treated to some more attacking racing than last year. This race is open to a win from both the sprinters and the puncheurs, so there's a wide host of riders who can win this one.
The Course
It is 293 kilometres long, and is predominantly flat, with the hills in the final 30 kms the only hurdles for the sprinters to get over. The high point of the race actually comes quite a bit earlier, on the Passo de Turchino, but the ascent to there is so gradual, that it doesn't put any riders into difficulty. In recent editions the big climb of the race was Le Manie, but that was dropped from this year's edition, with the Pompeiana expected to come in. That has been postponed til next year however and will mean that there is even less climbing than usual. The decisive climbs of the race are the Cipressa (5.6 kms, 4.7%) and the Poggio (3.7 kms, 3.7%). The Cipressa summits with 31 kms remaining, whilst the crest of the Poggio comes with only 6.1 kms to go. A technical descent from the Poggio leaves only the riders only 2kms away from the return to old finish on Via Roma. That is a kilometre closer than last year, and could be the difference between the attackers staying away and not.
The weather should be a mild 14 degrees Celsius, with light showers, meaning that riders will be taking raincoats on and off all day. The wind will be light, and will mostly be a cross tailwind, though that will mean a cross headwind on the Poggio with a tailwind into the finish.
It is 293 kilometres long, and is predominantly flat, with the hills in the final 30 kms the only hurdles for the sprinters to get over. The high point of the race actually comes quite a bit earlier, on the Passo de Turchino, but the ascent to there is so gradual, that it doesn't put any riders into difficulty. In recent editions the big climb of the race was Le Manie, but that was dropped from this year's edition, with the Pompeiana expected to come in. That has been postponed til next year however and will mean that there is even less climbing than usual. The decisive climbs of the race are the Cipressa (5.6 kms, 4.7%) and the Poggio (3.7 kms, 3.7%). The Cipressa summits with 31 kms remaining, whilst the crest of the Poggio comes with only 6.1 kms to go. A technical descent from the Poggio leaves only the riders only 2kms away from the return to old finish on Via Roma. That is a kilometre closer than last year, and could be the difference between the attackers staying away and not.
The weather should be a mild 14 degrees Celsius, with light showers, meaning that riders will be taking raincoats on and off all day. The wind will be light, and will mostly be a cross tailwind, though that will mean a cross headwind on the Poggio with a tailwind into the finish.
The Tactics
The tactics of Milan San-Remo are fairly straightforward, as unless there is a lot of wind or serious cold. not much of note happens until 50kms to go. The pace then ramps up over the three Capi (small hills) that are the prelude to the Cipressa, as the teams of the attackers attempt to fatigue the teams of the sprinters. Then the initial attacks are launched on the Cipressa. Generally it isn't the big names that go at this point, but the ones that are looking to anticipate the moves of the stronger men, or to improve the tactical position of their team by having riders up the road. Nonetheless it can be a very good move to go at this time, in 2013 Ian Stannard and Sylvain Chavanel made it look like the win would be fought out between them after a Cipressa attack, they were only caught on the descent of the Poggio by the eventual winning group.
The composition of the attackers at this point will be interesting, and will determine what the peleton does in response. The peleton will also be in disarray at the top of the Cipressa, as the first major cull of the day occurs. There will be a frantic reassessment of how many riders each team has, who is in the move, and who will be required to do the chasing. It wouldn't surprise me to see some of the main sprinters teams try and put a rider in the move, either to absolve them from chasing, or to police the move.
The 20 km long flat is normally enough to bring back the breakaway, and the peleton is normally back together at the foot of the Poggio as the pace again ramps up, as each team tries to get their protected rider onto the climb first. Here is where we see the big attackers (Cancellara, Kwiatkowski, Sagan, etc.) make their move, and then try to hold the peleton off. It is normally a small group that forms over the top, the gradient isn't steep enough for a single rider to form a decent gap, and the riders know this, and prefer to keep their powder dry for the end of the race. Descending skills will be important, with the descent ending so close to the finish, and the descent itself being quite technical.
The strength of the breakaway, the sprinting hierarchy and team politics are the key factors to deciding whether the break stays away to the finish. Strength is obvious, you have to have good enough legs to get to the finish line before the peleton catches back up. The sprinting hierarchy of the break is also very important to consider, in 2013, a very strong Sagan had to do almost all the work himself to keep the break away, and was then pipped on the line by Gerard Ciolek, who had just been sitting on. The point is the riders won't help out in the pacemaking if they know that they are just going to be beaten in a sprint. A few of the likely attackers actually possess quite good sprints however, so that might not be as much of a problem as usual. Team tactics can also bring the break back, as a rider from a sprinter's team can just sit on the back of the break, saving his energy to foil his breakaway companions if they manage to stay away, and quite happy also for the peleton to come back, as his sprinter will be in with a good chance at winning. Michal Kwiatkowski could very well play this role this year for Etixx-Quickstep and Mark Cavendish's chances.
For the sprinters, there are simply trying to get to the line as quickly as the can, and there is little of the battles of the trains that are seen in normal sprint stages. One or two leadout men is the norm, and the sprint mostly comes down to who is the strongest.
Of course, all of this is played out under the extreme pressure of the race and the fatigue of having almost 300 kms riding in their legs, so riders make mistakes, moves don't pay off and this all makes the racing even more entertaining.
The tactics of Milan San-Remo are fairly straightforward, as unless there is a lot of wind or serious cold. not much of note happens until 50kms to go. The pace then ramps up over the three Capi (small hills) that are the prelude to the Cipressa, as the teams of the attackers attempt to fatigue the teams of the sprinters. Then the initial attacks are launched on the Cipressa. Generally it isn't the big names that go at this point, but the ones that are looking to anticipate the moves of the stronger men, or to improve the tactical position of their team by having riders up the road. Nonetheless it can be a very good move to go at this time, in 2013 Ian Stannard and Sylvain Chavanel made it look like the win would be fought out between them after a Cipressa attack, they were only caught on the descent of the Poggio by the eventual winning group.
The composition of the attackers at this point will be interesting, and will determine what the peleton does in response. The peleton will also be in disarray at the top of the Cipressa, as the first major cull of the day occurs. There will be a frantic reassessment of how many riders each team has, who is in the move, and who will be required to do the chasing. It wouldn't surprise me to see some of the main sprinters teams try and put a rider in the move, either to absolve them from chasing, or to police the move.
The 20 km long flat is normally enough to bring back the breakaway, and the peleton is normally back together at the foot of the Poggio as the pace again ramps up, as each team tries to get their protected rider onto the climb first. Here is where we see the big attackers (Cancellara, Kwiatkowski, Sagan, etc.) make their move, and then try to hold the peleton off. It is normally a small group that forms over the top, the gradient isn't steep enough for a single rider to form a decent gap, and the riders know this, and prefer to keep their powder dry for the end of the race. Descending skills will be important, with the descent ending so close to the finish, and the descent itself being quite technical.
The strength of the breakaway, the sprinting hierarchy and team politics are the key factors to deciding whether the break stays away to the finish. Strength is obvious, you have to have good enough legs to get to the finish line before the peleton catches back up. The sprinting hierarchy of the break is also very important to consider, in 2013, a very strong Sagan had to do almost all the work himself to keep the break away, and was then pipped on the line by Gerard Ciolek, who had just been sitting on. The point is the riders won't help out in the pacemaking if they know that they are just going to be beaten in a sprint. A few of the likely attackers actually possess quite good sprints however, so that might not be as much of a problem as usual. Team tactics can also bring the break back, as a rider from a sprinter's team can just sit on the back of the break, saving his energy to foil his breakaway companions if they manage to stay away, and quite happy also for the peleton to come back, as his sprinter will be in with a good chance at winning. Michal Kwiatkowski could very well play this role this year for Etixx-Quickstep and Mark Cavendish's chances.
For the sprinters, there are simply trying to get to the line as quickly as the can, and there is little of the battles of the trains that are seen in normal sprint stages. One or two leadout men is the norm, and the sprint mostly comes down to who is the strongest.
Of course, all of this is played out under the extreme pressure of the race and the fatigue of having almost 300 kms riding in their legs, so riders make mistakes, moves don't pay off and this all makes the racing even more entertaining.