Stage 1 saw a predictable end, with Orica-Greenedge taking the stage and the pink jersey on the shoulders of Simon Gerrans. Today will see it most likely pass to Michael Matthews, with none of the big sprinters in striking distance of the jersey, and Matthews able to move up on positions, even if he doesn't take any bonus time. Will Stage 2 be a predictable win for Greipel?
Course
It's not an imposing parcours for the sprinters tomorrow, but there are some undulations in the 9.5 km finishing circuit, which will sap the legs of the pure sprinters a bit. There's a 1 km 4% climb, and the final km is 2% uphill. The finish is non-technical, and the finishing straight is relatively wide, so all riders will have their chance.
The start in Albenga will see the riders wend their way inland before returning to the coast for the rest of the race. After that inland excursion, the race is over easy terrain, but does contain the first categorised climb of the race, and will see the break getting to contest the first mountains jersey of the Giro up the Pratozanino (4.2 kms, 4.9%). With the summit with 53 kms remaining it shouldn't affect the outcome of the race. The riders reach Genoa with 24 kms remaining and begin the first of two circuits shortly after.
The weather is again forecast to be fine and sunny, with only a light breeze which will be a cross tailwind for most of the stage.
It's not an imposing parcours for the sprinters tomorrow, but there are some undulations in the 9.5 km finishing circuit, which will sap the legs of the pure sprinters a bit. There's a 1 km 4% climb, and the final km is 2% uphill. The finish is non-technical, and the finishing straight is relatively wide, so all riders will have their chance.
The start in Albenga will see the riders wend their way inland before returning to the coast for the rest of the race. After that inland excursion, the race is over easy terrain, but does contain the first categorised climb of the race, and will see the break getting to contest the first mountains jersey of the Giro up the Pratozanino (4.2 kms, 4.9%). With the summit with 53 kms remaining it shouldn't affect the outcome of the race. The riders reach Genoa with 24 kms remaining and begin the first of two circuits shortly after.
The weather is again forecast to be fine and sunny, with only a light breeze which will be a cross tailwind for most of the stage.
Tactics
The breakaway should be relatively competitive to get into today, with the mountains jersey on the line, and for a number of small teams this is a very good way to get TV time and is also their best chance of standing on the podium. Stefano Pirazzi of Bardiani is one of the favourites for the mountains jersey, and whilst he will want to save his energy for the mountains, his team will want to stop others taking the points, and so will likely try to get someone in the break. They have ambitions for the sprint as well with Ruffoni, so they may just opt to see the jersey as just being on loan, and concentrate their efforts on their young sprinter.
Thus we'll see the smaller Italian teams on the attack, as well as other teams that have no interest in the sprints, like FDJ and BMC. It won't be a big break however, as most teams have a sprinter in their ranks, and this early in the race, the squad will want to show their confidence in their chosen fast man by providing full team support. This will ensure the break is essentially doomed from the outset, and the real carrot for them is definitely the mountains jersey.
The sprint itself won't involve too many tactics, it is a straightforward run-in, but the teams of the stronger/climby sprinters riders might try to really string things out on the climb in the final circuit. It's a tough thing to do without your own leadout, and there doesn't seem to be a prime candidate who will benefit from it so I'd be surprised to see that tactic used.
The breakaway should be relatively competitive to get into today, with the mountains jersey on the line, and for a number of small teams this is a very good way to get TV time and is also their best chance of standing on the podium. Stefano Pirazzi of Bardiani is one of the favourites for the mountains jersey, and whilst he will want to save his energy for the mountains, his team will want to stop others taking the points, and so will likely try to get someone in the break. They have ambitions for the sprint as well with Ruffoni, so they may just opt to see the jersey as just being on loan, and concentrate their efforts on their young sprinter.
Thus we'll see the smaller Italian teams on the attack, as well as other teams that have no interest in the sprints, like FDJ and BMC. It won't be a big break however, as most teams have a sprinter in their ranks, and this early in the race, the squad will want to show their confidence in their chosen fast man by providing full team support. This will ensure the break is essentially doomed from the outset, and the real carrot for them is definitely the mountains jersey.
The sprint itself won't involve too many tactics, it is a straightforward run-in, but the teams of the stronger/climby sprinters riders might try to really string things out on the climb in the final circuit. It's a tough thing to do without your own leadout, and there doesn't seem to be a prime candidate who will benefit from it so I'd be surprised to see that tactic used.
The Contenders
Andre Greipel is the biggest name on the starting line in sprinting circles, and boasts the best record in Grand Tours of the fast men assembled. He has taken a different approach to his season this year, skipping the Tour Down Under where he normally dominates, and started his season later. As a result he doesn't have as many wins to his name at this stage, but he may arrive fitter for his main objectives, of which this certainly will be one. He was also strong in Flanders and Roubaix, which isn't somewhere he has really shone before, so maybe the new schedule is reflective of a slight change in riding style. He is still very quick however, and has taken a win in each of the stage races he has contested this season, the Driesdage de Panne being the exception, and even there he was a whisker away from beating the in-form Kristoff. He will be well suited to the finale, strong enough to get over the lumpy finish, and the wide, non-technical roads should allow to use his train perfectly.
Sascha Modolo has been in good form in recent months, finishing 2nd on points in Driesdage de Panne, before winning a stage in Turkey, and also taking a 2nd and a 4th behind Cavendish. That looks like pretty good form coming into this, and he has two sprinters in Richeze and Ferrari to lead him out. He has been pretty consistent recently, and I would be surprised to see him outside the top 5.
Giacomo Nizzolo is another Italian with a good chance here if he manages to put it all together, and will be delighted that he has been the full backing of his Trek squad with the team they have selected. Certainly he will hoping to do better than he has been this season, with his only win coming in the GP Nobili. He won't get a better chance than this though, and clearly he must be going better than he has shown, with Trek putting so much faith in him.
Elia Viviani is one of the fastest riders here, but really needs a train to help him, as he is a notoriously poor at positioning, and regularly has to start his sprint from way back. That happened at Gent-Wevelgem when he was a fast-finishing third, but in the Tour of Qatar, he actually managed to beat Cavendish and was competitive in all the sprint stages. Unfortunately, he won't be the beneficiary of a leadout here, with most of the squad in service of Porte. If he can find a good wheel and keep it, then he has a decent shot, but that's always been the hard part for him.
Moreno Hofland recently took Lotto-Jumbo's first win of the season in the Tour de Yorkshire over Matteo Pelucchi, and will be hoping that good form holds for him here. He'll be well suited by this uphill drag, but will probably only have Robert Wagner for support in the finale. He lacks the top speed of the others here, but if he can beat Pelucchi head to head, then he is clearly fast enough.
Speaking of, IAM have come in with big expectation for the Giro and part of that is Pelucchi doing well in the sprints. He is an inconsistent performer, he has won sprints from nowhere in the past, blasting past better known rivals, and in others he failed to flatter, for instance recently going down to Hofland, despite having every chance. He had a superb start to the season, winning the first two one day Mallorca races, and then took two third places in Oman. Since then, he hasn't contested a sprint until Yorkshire. He will have some quality riders like Saramotins and Haussler leading him out, so he'll have every opportunity, and it will likely depend on which Pelucchi shows up. He is more of a pure sprinter than others here, and will be a bit more disadvantaged by the undulating finale than some.
Gianni Meersman should also be given a chance, but the noises coming out Etixx-Quickstep seem to indicate that sprint leadership will go to Tom Boonen instead. Boonen of course used to be a top-tier sprinter, with 6 victories at the Tour de France to his name, but those days are behind him, though he can win from a reduced bunch at the end of a hard day. Meersman would have been my choice to lead the team in the sprints, with a win in the Handzame classic, and a good stage performance in Romandie. It will be interesting to see which way they go.
Niccola Ruffoni is an exciting youngster who has acquitted himself well to date, and was most impressive recently in Turkey, with two third placings behind Cavendish. He'll have a decent lead-out as well, with Colbrelli and Battaglin no strangers to going for sprint wins themselves.
Michael Matthews has shown that he can be right up there even on the flatter courses, he won a stage of Paris-Nice on a similar small uphill, though that course was much more technical, and he was led out perfectly by his team there. Of course he has been very competitive in the hillier races, but it is his sprint that sets him out from the field there. He does lack the top-end speed of others here, and will be better suited to other stages, but he will benefit from a good leadout and should be right in contention.
Juan Jose Lobato started his season off with a bang, winning a stage in Tour Down Under, looking good in Dubai, and winning two stages in Andalucía. Since then he has gone a bit quiet, most notably failing in one of his big targets Milan San-Remo. He actually hasn't raced since the start of April, and will probably need a bit of racing to get back up to speed. He will like the look of a few stages later on, and he can't be going too badly, judging from Movistars' TTT, where he was first over the line. He will have to do his own thing in the finale, but he will be advantaged by the uphill slope, and is a much improved rider on previous seasons.
Other sprinters with aspirations to victory will be Daniel Colli, Luka Mezgec, Grega Bole, Manuel Belletti and Alexander Porsev.
Andre Greipel is the biggest name on the starting line in sprinting circles, and boasts the best record in Grand Tours of the fast men assembled. He has taken a different approach to his season this year, skipping the Tour Down Under where he normally dominates, and started his season later. As a result he doesn't have as many wins to his name at this stage, but he may arrive fitter for his main objectives, of which this certainly will be one. He was also strong in Flanders and Roubaix, which isn't somewhere he has really shone before, so maybe the new schedule is reflective of a slight change in riding style. He is still very quick however, and has taken a win in each of the stage races he has contested this season, the Driesdage de Panne being the exception, and even there he was a whisker away from beating the in-form Kristoff. He will be well suited to the finale, strong enough to get over the lumpy finish, and the wide, non-technical roads should allow to use his train perfectly.
Sascha Modolo has been in good form in recent months, finishing 2nd on points in Driesdage de Panne, before winning a stage in Turkey, and also taking a 2nd and a 4th behind Cavendish. That looks like pretty good form coming into this, and he has two sprinters in Richeze and Ferrari to lead him out. He has been pretty consistent recently, and I would be surprised to see him outside the top 5.
Giacomo Nizzolo is another Italian with a good chance here if he manages to put it all together, and will be delighted that he has been the full backing of his Trek squad with the team they have selected. Certainly he will hoping to do better than he has been this season, with his only win coming in the GP Nobili. He won't get a better chance than this though, and clearly he must be going better than he has shown, with Trek putting so much faith in him.
Elia Viviani is one of the fastest riders here, but really needs a train to help him, as he is a notoriously poor at positioning, and regularly has to start his sprint from way back. That happened at Gent-Wevelgem when he was a fast-finishing third, but in the Tour of Qatar, he actually managed to beat Cavendish and was competitive in all the sprint stages. Unfortunately, he won't be the beneficiary of a leadout here, with most of the squad in service of Porte. If he can find a good wheel and keep it, then he has a decent shot, but that's always been the hard part for him.
Moreno Hofland recently took Lotto-Jumbo's first win of the season in the Tour de Yorkshire over Matteo Pelucchi, and will be hoping that good form holds for him here. He'll be well suited by this uphill drag, but will probably only have Robert Wagner for support in the finale. He lacks the top speed of the others here, but if he can beat Pelucchi head to head, then he is clearly fast enough.
Speaking of, IAM have come in with big expectation for the Giro and part of that is Pelucchi doing well in the sprints. He is an inconsistent performer, he has won sprints from nowhere in the past, blasting past better known rivals, and in others he failed to flatter, for instance recently going down to Hofland, despite having every chance. He had a superb start to the season, winning the first two one day Mallorca races, and then took two third places in Oman. Since then, he hasn't contested a sprint until Yorkshire. He will have some quality riders like Saramotins and Haussler leading him out, so he'll have every opportunity, and it will likely depend on which Pelucchi shows up. He is more of a pure sprinter than others here, and will be a bit more disadvantaged by the undulating finale than some.
Gianni Meersman should also be given a chance, but the noises coming out Etixx-Quickstep seem to indicate that sprint leadership will go to Tom Boonen instead. Boonen of course used to be a top-tier sprinter, with 6 victories at the Tour de France to his name, but those days are behind him, though he can win from a reduced bunch at the end of a hard day. Meersman would have been my choice to lead the team in the sprints, with a win in the Handzame classic, and a good stage performance in Romandie. It will be interesting to see which way they go.
Niccola Ruffoni is an exciting youngster who has acquitted himself well to date, and was most impressive recently in Turkey, with two third placings behind Cavendish. He'll have a decent lead-out as well, with Colbrelli and Battaglin no strangers to going for sprint wins themselves.
Michael Matthews has shown that he can be right up there even on the flatter courses, he won a stage of Paris-Nice on a similar small uphill, though that course was much more technical, and he was led out perfectly by his team there. Of course he has been very competitive in the hillier races, but it is his sprint that sets him out from the field there. He does lack the top-end speed of others here, and will be better suited to other stages, but he will benefit from a good leadout and should be right in contention.
Juan Jose Lobato started his season off with a bang, winning a stage in Tour Down Under, looking good in Dubai, and winning two stages in Andalucía. Since then he has gone a bit quiet, most notably failing in one of his big targets Milan San-Remo. He actually hasn't raced since the start of April, and will probably need a bit of racing to get back up to speed. He will like the look of a few stages later on, and he can't be going too badly, judging from Movistars' TTT, where he was first over the line. He will have to do his own thing in the finale, but he will be advantaged by the uphill slope, and is a much improved rider on previous seasons.
Other sprinters with aspirations to victory will be Daniel Colli, Luka Mezgec, Grega Bole, Manuel Belletti and Alexander Porsev.
The Verdict
It doesn't take much imagination to see a traditional Andre Greipel win, bursting from the back of Gregory Henderson's wheel to power clear. He maybe lacks the strength of his normal leadout, but in the absence of another strong train, he should still be positioned well enough to unleash his superior power.
It doesn't take much imagination to see a traditional Andre Greipel win, bursting from the back of Gregory Henderson's wheel to power clear. He maybe lacks the strength of his normal leadout, but in the absence of another strong train, he should still be positioned well enough to unleash his superior power.